Compared to Bill James by The New York Times Magazine, and attributed as a “founding father of football analytics” by The Ringer, AARON SCHATZ is the creator and Editor-in-Chief of Football Outsiders. Aaron is also the creator of most of the original statistical methods (DVOA, DYAR) used in NFL analysis on this website, as well as Lead Writer, Editor, and Statistician on the book series Football Outsiders Almanac (published since 2009). He also writes for ESPN.com and ESPN+, and appears weekly during the NFL season on the Off The Charts podcast. During the 2011 season, he was a regular panelist on the ESPN2 show Numbers Never Lie. Before Football Outsiders, Aaron spent five years as a radio host at WBRU Providence and WKRO Daytona Beach, and three years as the writer and producer of the Lycos 50, the Internet's foremost authority on the people, places, and things that are searched online. He has written on sports, politics, and taxes for a number of publications including The New Republic, The New York Times, The Boston Globe, Slate, The American Prospect, and the Boston Phoenix. Aaron resides in Worcester, Massachusetts and yes, is a New England Patriots fan.
Let's go back in time with another dominant 80s San Francisco squad and Dan Marino enjoying one of the greatest quarterback seasons in NFL history. Plus, the legend of the Chicago defense begins, Eric Dickerson sets the all-time rushing yardage record, and the Rams score three safeties in one quarter.
The cost: a 2021 third-round pick and a conditional 2022 pick that starts as a second-rounder but goes up to a first-rounder if Wentz plays 75% of the snaps next season or plays 70% of the snaps and the Colts go to the playoffs.
The Texans and J.J. Watt agreed to a mutual separation. Like an old married couple! It's a bit of a surprise that Watt wasn't traded somewhere, although his contract was pretty high and not really at any kind of discount.
Something we've never tried before: projections in February. Based solely on simple regression, a few injury returns, and adjusting for weird COVID games, who looks good for 2021?
Last year on the podcast, we said that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were a good all-around team with huge holes at the quarterback and tight end positions. Do you think two future Hall of Famers helped? Off The Charts reviews Super Bowl LV, giving props not just to the Tampa Bay pass rush but also their coverage and their offensive strategy. (Click for audio link.)
Marty Schottenheimer passed away last night. Seventh all-time on the list of regular-season wins. I’m busy with personal responsibilities today so no long commentary by me, but here’s a place for readers to discuss and appreciate the legacy of Martyball.
Now that we know the Hall of Fame class of 2021, it's time to start debating the class of 2022. Our own Mike Tanier has his picks, seeing it as a year where the voters will be able to clear some logjams at positions including the offensive line, linebacker, and safety.
In the end, the Kansas City Chiefs flipped the switch the wrong way. An impressive Tampa Bay victory leads to a mea culpa and provides evidence that close victories still have something to teach us.
The top-line numbers suggest a Tampa Bay upset in Super Bowl LV, but the specific matchups point to favoring Kansas City. We cover everything from how each quarterback fares under pressure to different personnel groupings to how the Week 12 matchup might inform the strategies on Sunday.
It's time to preview the Super Bowl! From personnel groupings to coverage schemes to DVOA breakdowns, we go through it all. (Click for audio link.)
