Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Aaron Schatz's blog

ESPN: Playoff Bets to Make Right Now
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ESPN: Playoff Bets to Make Right Now

A new column for ESPN+ Chalk with a review of teams where that Football Outsiders odds show value compared to consensus Las Vegas odds. Teams highlighted include Washington, Kansas City, and Chicago.

Week 10 DVOA Ratings
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Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Big wins mean big movement in our DVOA ratings, with Pittsburgh jumping up from 11th to fifth and big moves for Green Bay, Tennessee, and Buffalo as well. We also explore the history of the DVOA Bowl as No. 1 prepares to meet No. 2, and jump into the workings of DVOA to try to figure out why New Orleans doesn't rank higher in our metric.

58 comments, Last at 16 Nov 2018, 1:34am by MC2
Top Potential NFL Head Coach Candidates
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Top Potential NFL Head Coach Candidates

A good conversation starter here, as Trevor Sikkema puts together a list of possible head coaching candidates for next year. Obviously, the hot young offensive mind everyone in the NFL wants is Lincoln Riley of Oklahoma, but there's also Vikings OC John DeFilippo and Titans OC Matt LaFleur. There are some defensive minds on here, and some older retreads who may get new consideration. Norv Turner again? I suppose it's possible. Who's your favorite head coach candidate?

12 comments, Last at 22 Nov 2018, 2:18pm by LionInAZ
Off The Charts Podcast: November 8
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Off The Charts Podcast: November 8

Special guest Mike Tanier joins Matt Manocherian and Aaron Schatz on this week's Off The Charts Podcast to talk about the current state of the Philadelphia Eagles; whether signing Dez Bryant will work for the New Orleans Saints; and whether the Miami Dolphins are now the blandest team in the National Football League. Plus, a big debate about how to value running backs. How much does Todd Gurley's rushing mean to his value if there's research showing that receiving is so much more important than rushing? And how much do we need to value Gurley's volume as opposed to just analyzing players with rate stats? (Click for audio link.)

The Match Game: How NFL Defenses Lost Their Way

The Match Game: How NFL Defenses Lost Their Way

Great, really must-read series here from our old friend Doug Farrar about how NFL defensive schemes have fallen so far behind NFL offensive schemes, and just what coaches might be able to do about it. Part I breaks down how so many passive NFL coverages are just not prepared for the schematic complexity of modern offenses.

9 comments, Last at 15 Dec 2018, 4:48am by atworkforu
ESPN: Playoff Odds After Week 9
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ESPN: Playoff Odds After Week 9

On ESPN+, we look at our updated playoff odds for all 32 teams, with breakdowns including: why our numbers love the Chiefs so much, where Cincinnati may decline in the second half of the season, and why Washington's offensive line injuries may not stop them from winning the NFC East.

ESPN Upset Watch: Giants-49ers
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ESPN Upset Watch: Giants-49ers

It's not a week of close games, as every line in the NFL this week is three points or more. Our Upset Watch pick looks at Monday Night Football, where expectations for Nick Mullens seem a bit too high based on just one game. Cover Watch analyzes Cincinnati hosting New Orleans.

Week 9 DVOA Ratings
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Week 9 DVOA Ratings

The Chiefs hit the DVOA sweet spot against Cleveland on Sunday, shooting their ratings up so they now rank among the best teams ever in both offensive and total team DVOA after nine weeks. The Patriots, Falcons, and 49ers also rise this week.

58 comments, Last at 14 Nov 2018, 3:38pm by Richie
Off The Charts Podcast: November 1
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Off The Charts Podcast: November 1

This week on the Off The Charts podcast: Discussion of the trade deadline and the Cleveland Browns coaching change; giving out some midseason awards to players such as Dee Ford, Adam Thielen, and Marlon Mack; previews of the Rams at Saints, Packers at Patriots, and Steelers at Ravens.

Paul Zimmerman, Dr. Z, Dead at 86

Paul Zimmerman, Dr. Z, Dead at 86

The legendary football writer Paul Zimmerman, Dr. Z, died this afternoon at the age of 86. Dr. Z was the first national writer to really bring play-by-play breakdown to the masses. He was breaking down games when there was no Internet, no coach's film available to the public, just your TV and a VCR. His Thinking Man's Guide to Pro Football is a seminal work that helps explain the game and is valuable even now, over 30 years later.

17 comments, Last at 18 Nov 2018, 9:48am by LondonMonarch