Aaron Schatz's blog

Football Outsiders' preseason projections had eight of the top 12 teams coming out of the NFC. Yet six of those teams are now 3-2-1 or worse. What are their chances for rebounding and getting into the postseason? You may be surprised by the relative odds for Green Bay and Minnesota in particular.

This week's ESPN Upset Watch looks at how the Jets can use their improved defense to take down the Minnesota Vikings at home. Cover Watch looks at the Giants and Falcons on Monday Night Football.

In close games, DVOA doesn't look at wins and losses, which is how the Chiefs can take over the No. 1 spot from the Rams despite a close loss. The secret: strength of schedule and special teams. Plus, more of a look at the incredibly bad Buffalo offense and the surprisingly good Buffalo defense.

This week's ESPN+ Upset Watch looks at how the Chiefs can beat the Patriots: Patrick Mahomes needs to perform under pressure and the Chiefs have to figure out how to improve their run defense. Cover Watch looks at Arizona at Minnesota.

Among the subjects discussed on this week's Off The Charts podcast: What is the real difference between James Conner and Le'Veon Bell in the Steelers offense? Are the Atlanta Falcons cooked? Why have so many NFC teams underwhelmed this year? Plus, previews of the Chiefs-Patriots, Ravens-Titans, and Bengals-Steelers games for Week 6.

At ESPN+ Chalk, here's a look at which teams are offering strong value when compared to Vegas odds, according to Football Outsiders' playoff odds simulations.

The New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Chargers leap up the DVOA rankings, but they're still behind the current big three of the Rams, Bears, and Chiefs. Plus, more on just how high-powered this year's offensive environment has been, and further exploration of why our Miami Dolphins ratings are so confusing.

More great new metrics coming out of the NFL's Next Gen Stats tracking software. These come from ESPN, which now has a deal with the league to use the Next Gen Stats. They've got metrics measuring how often a pass-rusher gets past the blocker in less than 2.5 seconds, and how often a pass-blocker can hold up his block for more than 2.5 seconds. This gives us a more objective measure of pass pressure than what outside groups (including us) have tried to do with charting pressure rates.

This week's Off The Charts podcast goes into the charting on how Patrick Mahomes' role in the Kansas City Chiefs offense differs from what Alex Smith was doing last year, plus previews of the most important games of the week: Bengals-Dolphins, Vikings-Eagles, Saints-Redskins, and Falcons-Steelers. (Click for audio link.)

Here's a closer look at the FO playoff odds on ESPN+, with notes on how they've shifted and why certain teams have defied expectations. Included: How the Rams are running away with things, just what 3-1 and an easy schedule can do for teams such as Miami and Chicago, and why Houston is the 1-3 team most likely to climb back into the playoff race.