Aaron Schatz's blog

This week's ESPN Upset Watch looks at the close Baltimore-Pittsburgh rivalry, where the road team is 11-8 over the last 19 games. Tight ends could be key for both teams in this matchup, while the running game is likely to be bottled up on both sides. Cover Watch analyzes Green Bay at New England.

The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams still are on top of our DVOA ratings, but this week the Chiefs pass the Rams as our new Super Bowl favorite. The reasons? Schedule strength, fumble recovery luck, and the presence of the best first-year starting quarterback in NFL history.

Hey, it's the NFL trade deadline today. And some big trades are getting made. We'll catalog them here and let the readers discuss.

This week's Off The Charts podcast discusses the Giants' decision to go for 2 down 8, and their decision to start liquidating the roster. Does a midseason dump mean it's time to move on from Eli Manning? Plus, previews of Seahawks-Lions, Vikings-Saints, and Chiefs-Broncos. (Click for audio link.)

In this week's Upset Watch: Pass pressure will be key to Seattle's chances against Detroit. You can also expect to see a lot of rushing yardage, from both sides. Cover Watch looks at Miami, where Brock Osweiler has not been the problem.

A look at the 2018 Buffalo Bills and the ten worst offenses ever by DVOA. The Bills are on pace to pass them all.

The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams remain on top of the DVOA ratings, far ahead of the rest of the league. But below these top teams, there's a lot of movement up and down. What on earth are the Denver Broncos doing at No. 5? We explain. Plus: Buffalo is now the worst offense in DVOA history.

Well, the Cowboys finally got the receiver they needed, but boy did they pay a lot for him. Dallas will send a first-round pick to Oakland for a year and a half of Amari Cooper. Cooper was a Pro Bowl wide receiver his first two years, but his numbers have fallen to 70 catches for 960 yards and eight touchdowns in the last season and a half (20 games). That's still pretty good, and he'll be the best receiver on the Cowboys, but he's getting out of a bad situation and into... another bad situation, at least as far as offensive scheme?

Well, that's one way to get more carries for Nick Chubb and his (very limited sample size) 10.8 yards per carry. Carlos Hyde is apparently going to Jacksonville for a fifth-round pick. This also would suggest Leonard Fournette's hamstring injury is more of a long-term problem and he's not coming back anytime soon.

Could the days of constantly running David Johnson straight into a pile of defenders be over? The Cardinals fired offensive coordinator Mike McCoy this morning, replacing him with Byron Leftwich. It's the second straight season that McCoy has been fired in the middle of a season; the Broncos fired him halfway through last year. Leftwich is a Bruce Arians disciple, so the hope here is that we'll get a more exciting Cardinals offense that a) uses Johnson smarter and b) throws downfield more often.