Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Bryan Knowles's blog

FO Mailbag: Does Defense Dip Down in December?
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FO Mailbag: Does Defense Dip Down in December?

A question from a reader has us diving into week-by-week DVOA splits, looking at how both run and pass defense change over the course of the year. Is wear and tear to blame for defensive declines, or does Old Man Winter have something to say?

14 comments, Last at 14 Aug 2018, 12:54pm by crw78

Jason Verrett Out for Season. Again.

Jason Verrett has reportedly torn his Achilles during a conditioning test in Chargers training camp.

2 comments, Last at 01 Aug 2018, 4:12pm by theslothook
2017 Play-Action Defense
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2017 Play-Action Defense

Our look at play-action pass in 2017 flips to the defensive side of the ball. Carolina was historically good, Houston was historically bad, and a long-standing question about year-to-year correlation gets cleared up.

3 comments, Last at 20 Jul 2018, 9:35am by Aaron Brooks Good Twin
2017 Play-Action Offense
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2017 Play-Action Offense

Party like it's 2012! Play-action came roaring back to the forefront of the league last season. From traditional play fakes to RPO shenanigans, play-action was the hot sensation sweeping the nation.

14 comments, Last at 22 Jul 2018, 11:46am by The Ninjalectual
2017 Run Defense by Number of Backs
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2017 Run Defense by Number of Backs

Our annual look at defensive success against multiple-back formations sees Seattle struggling to stop fullbacks, Indianapolis begging teams to use fullbacks, and Arizona trying to remember what a fullback even is.

4 comments, Last at 15 Jul 2018, 12:39pm by Theo
2017 Run Offense by Number of Backs
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2017 Run Offense by Number of Backs

Our annual look at two-back rushing attempts features Chip Kelly's legacy in Philadelphia (but not San Francisco), Green Bay's fading memories of John Kuhn, and a Super Bowl matchup between two teams with very different philosophies.

7 comments, Last at 18 Jul 2018, 3:27pm by CaffeineMan
2017 Defensive Personnel Analysis
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2017 Defensive Personnel Analysis

Defenses have taken a wide variety of responses to the rise of 11 personnel. Is any one system better than another? And how has the rise of the "moneybacker" changed defensive philosophy?

21 comments, Last at 27 Jun 2018, 10:58pm by TheIdealGrassLaw
2017 Offensive Personnel Analysis
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2017 Offensive Personnel Analysis

It's a three-receiver league, but for the first time since 2010, the frequency of 11 personnel actually went down last year. Was it a blip, or sign of things to come?

11 comments, Last at 28 Jun 2018, 6:57am by Bright Blue Shorts
Four Downs: NFC West
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Four Downs: NFC West

While the Rams added gobs of talent to their interior line and secondary, do they have enough pass-rushing to win a Super Bowl? The 49ers also need pass-rushers, while the Cardinals need a corner and the Seahawks -- as always -- need offensive linemen.

4 comments, Last at 15 May 2018, 4:08am by Bryan Knowles
2018 Free Agency Cost-Benefit Analysis
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2018 Free Agency Cost-Benefit Analysis

Is Kirk Cousins the best free-agent quarterback in recent memory? Should Trumaine Johnson or Malcolm Butler have gotten the larger contract? And what makes a free-agent contract good or bad, anyway?

23 comments, Last at 25 Apr 2018, 5:35pm by The Ninjalectual