Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

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F/+ Projections vs. the Conventional Wisdom
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F/+ Projections vs. the Conventional Wisdom

Which teams' F/+ projections differ the most from the general fan and media preseason consensus? Here we take a look at three college football teams which are forecasted lower than the conventional wisdom would suggest, and two teams that might outperform expectations.

OFI: Freshmen Propel Alabama
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OFI: Freshmen Propel Alabama

Replacing starter Jalen Hurts, Alabama quarterback Tua Tagavailoa threw a 41-yard walk-off touchdown pass to fellow freshman DeVonta Smith on second-and-26 in overtime for yet another Alabama championship.

12 comments, Last at 10 Jan 2018, 2:27pm by Anger...rising
OFI: The Best Rose Bowl Ever?
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OFI: The Best Rose Bowl Ever?

The largest comeback in Rose Bowl history propels the Bulldogs to the national championship, while Alabama's dominating defense compensated for a mediocre offensive performance in the Sugar Bowl.

6 comments, Last at 05 Jan 2018, 12:10am by NYMike
OFI: Big Ten Champs Miss Playoff
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OFI: Big Ten Champs Miss Playoff

While Clemson, Georgia, and Oklahoma clinched conference championships and playoff berths, Alabama just sat back waited to hear the Selection Committee put them into the four-team field.

9 comments, Last at 05 Dec 2017, 5:09pm by Will
One Foot Inbounds: Top Teams Fall
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One Foot Inbounds: Top Teams Fall

The top two college football teams in the country, Alabama and Miami, each picked up their first loss of the season, again upsetting the playoff race.

12 comments, Last at 28 Nov 2017, 6:42pm by Will Allen
OFI: Calm Before Rivalry Week Storm
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OFI: Calm Before Rivalry Week Storm

It was a quiet week for almost everyone in college football, with Skylar Thompson leading Kansas State over Oklahoma State as the only major Power 5 upset.

6 comments, Last at 22 Nov 2017, 3:51pm by horn
OFI: Blowouts Shake Up Playoff Race, Again
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OFI: Blowouts Shake Up Playoff Race, Again

This week was full of big ranked matchups, but a few blowout wins opened the doors for even more possible playoff contenders.

1 comment, Last at 14 Nov 2017, 5:10pm by horn
OFI: Bedlam in the Big Ten
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OFI: Bedlam in the Big Ten

Bedlam wasn't the only bedlam this week, as the Big Ten lost two potential playoff contenders in upsets. Bedlam itself also lived up to high-scoring expectations.

1 comment, Last at 07 Nov 2017, 4:56pm by Pat
OFI: Huge Wins Could Mean Playoff Chaos
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OFI: Huge Wins Could Mean Playoff Chaos

It's always tough to figure out the four best teams for the Playoff. It's much harder when there are a huge number of deserving one-loss teams that all have strong claims.

2 comments, Last at 01 Nov 2017, 4:24pm by horn
OFI: Penn State, Notre Dame Position for Playoff Runs
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OFI: Penn State, Notre Dame Position for Playoff Runs

Without any upsets, the winners of the two ranked-vs.-ranked matchups -- Notre Dame and Penn State -- made the most noise in Week 8.