Sean Payton continues to struggle managing 11-point leads and he is actively costing his team win probability because of it.
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Frank Frigo's Archive
The uptick of fourth-down aggressiveness by NFL coaches is a real and meaningful trend.
It didn’t take any sophisticated analysis to know that replacing Aaron Rodgers with Jordan Love was going to have a major impact on the Packers’ winning chances this weekend.
The Saints were fortunate to escape with a victory over Tampa despite some questionable time management.
It wasn’t exactly David vs. Goliath, but Lions head coach Dan Campbell decided to reach into his bag for a few tricks on Sunday.
There is a classic problem in football analytics that was solved many years ago. When trailing by 14 points late in the game, it is almost always correct to go for two after your first touchdown.
With only 1:47 remaining in the game, the Los Angeles Chargers found themselves trailing the Browns by one point with a third-and-2 at the Cleveland 11-yard line. What they did next was surprising given how well they've played the percentages all season.
New York Giants head coach Joe Judge is not a fan of using analytics to make fourth-down decisions. Our analytics are not a fan of Judge's timid choices. Also, did Bill Belichick make the right decision by kicking a long field goal in the rain against Tampa Bay?
In-game decisions require you to know what your team can do, but also to guess what the other team is going to do. We saw this with certain decisions the Chiefs made early in their loss to the Chargers. Plus: should Arizona have tried a 68-yard field goal against Jacksonville, given the possibility of a touchdown field goal return?
John Harbaugh makes the biggest move of the young season by going for fourth-and-1 to seal the upset over Kansas City.