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Creator of the NFL's first fully customized simulation model
Frank Frigo's Archive
Penalties cost the Kansas City Chiefs a lot of their Game-Winning Chance last night, but it's important to remember context and the difference between penalties with and without upside.
In the final minutes of the Cleveland-Kansas City, there was a clear distinction between a seasoned veteran and a rookie head coach.
Fourth-down decisions shaped the opening weekend of the NFL playoffs, with some very controversial punt decisions made by losing head coaches.
There are many factors that affect the state of an NFL game; a late-game Pittsburgh decision would have been different with just small changes in the score, time to go, or distance to the sticks.
Did Matt Rhule make the right decision by kicking a field goal before the Panthers tried for a touchdown on Saturday night?
Do analytics ever endorse conservative actions on fourth-and-short decisions? Yes, and there were a couple of examples of these exceptions in Week 14.
There were a number of important game theory decisions late in Sunday's Houston-Indianapolis game, including the question of whether the Colts should have let the Texans score before Deshaun Watson fumbled the ball away.