Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Guest's blog

Introducing Targets Above Expectation
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Introducing Targets Above Expectation

At Football Outsiders, we measure receivers based on what they do with the targets they get -- but what happens when you look at a receiver's ability to generate targets in the first place? And what does it tell us about Seahawks receiver Tyler Lockett?

7 comments, Last at 14 May 2019, 6:44pm by LionInAZ
Third Down and Air Yards
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Third Down and Air Yards

The numbers are clear: deep throws on third-and-long are more effective than checkdowns. So why are coaches so reluctant to call for the long bomb?

24 comments, Last at 12 May 2019, 4:40pm by mrt1212
QB Functional Mobility Model 2019
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QB Functional Mobility Model 2019

Guest columnists Jeremy Rosen and Alexandre Olbrecht return to see which quarterback prospects in 2019 had the best footwork, and why that can be a valuable tool in predicting NFL success.

1 comment, Last at 09 Apr 2019, 5:59pm by Dan
Play-Action Passing and Game Conditions
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Play-Action Passing and Game Conditions

Guest columnist Ben Baldwin returns with more analysis of play-action passing data. Is it best to use play-action when ahead, or when trailing? Late in the game, or early? And does it matter how often a team passes after showing a handoff -- and is that tendency becoming more common?

15 comments, Last at 26 Mar 2019, 3:19pm by Chappy
Evaluating Third-and-Long Strategy with Expected Points
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Evaluating Third-and-Long Strategy with Expected Points

Which routes and coverages work best when the offense needs to pick up big yardage in one play? And which individuals played best and worst in those situations?

5 comments, Last at 19 Mar 2019, 9:27am by garion333
To Return or Not to Return
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To Return or Not to Return

When kickoffs go into the end zone, should returners try to make a play, or just take a knee and settle for a touchback? Guest columnist Jack Duffin breaks down the numbers and finds teams are making the wrong decision more often than not.

27 comments, Last at 23 Feb 2019, 6:24am by RobotBoy
EdjSports' Fourth-Down Report: Super Bowl LIII
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EdjSports' Fourth-Down Report: Super Bowl LIII

Super Bowl LIII was a great game if you like punting. Not so great if you like aggressive coaching that agrees with analytical models. (Click to read more.)

6 comments, Last at 07 Feb 2019, 4:27pm by PirateFreedom
Evaluating Goal-to-Go Strategy with Expected Points
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Evaluating Goal-to-Go Strategy with Expected Points

Guest columnist Spencer Harrison looks at which plays are most and least successful at the goal line. Yes, the fade route is as bad as you think.

5 comments, Last at 29 Jan 2019, 6:37pm by PTORaven
Further Research on Play-Action Passing
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Further Research on Play-Action Passing

Guest columnist Ben Baldwin returns for another look at play-action passing in the NFL. Does a team's effectiveness on standard passes have an effect on play-action success? Do teams that run the ball a lot use play-action more often? Do teams that run well use play-action more? And finally, is play-action more effective when it's used sparingly?

15 comments, Last at 25 Jun 2019, 3:02pm by JaredJen
Introducing Rate of Adjusted Pressure
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Introducing Rate of Adjusted Pressure

Guest columnist Ajit Kirpekar applies machine learning techniques to pressure rates from a dozen NFL seasons and comes up with some interesting conclusions -- most notably, that quarterbacks might be even more responsible than we thought for the pressure they do or do not face.

19 comments, Last at 01 Apr 2019, 11:04am by theslothook