Guest's blog

At Football Outsiders, we measure receivers based on what they do with the targets they get -- but what happens when you look at a receiver's ability to generate targets in the first place? And what does it tell us about Seahawks receiver Tyler Lockett?

The numbers are clear: deep throws on third-and-long are more effective than checkdowns. So why are coaches so reluctant to call for the long bomb?

Guest columnists Jeremy Rosen and Alexandre Olbrecht return to see which quarterback prospects in 2019 had the best footwork, and why that can be a valuable tool in predicting NFL success.

Guest columnist Ben Baldwin returns with more analysis of play-action passing data. Is it best to use play-action when ahead, or when trailing? Late in the game, or early? And does it matter how often a team passes after showing a handoff -- and is that tendency becoming more common?

Which routes and coverages work best when the offense needs to pick up big yardage in one play? And which individuals played best and worst in those situations?

When kickoffs go into the end zone, should returners try to make a play, or just take a knee and settle for a touchback? Guest columnist Jack Duffin breaks down the numbers and finds teams are making the wrong decision more often than not.

Super Bowl LIII was a great game if you like punting. Not so great if you like aggressive coaching that agrees with analytical models. (Click to read more.)

Guest columnist Spencer Harrison looks at which plays are most and least successful at the goal line. Yes, the fade route is as bad as you think.

Guest columnist Ben Baldwin returns for another look at play-action passing in the NFL. Does a team's effectiveness on standard passes have an effect on play-action success? Do teams that run the ball a lot use play-action more often? Do teams that run well use play-action more? And finally, is play-action more effective when it's used sparingly?

Guest columnist Ajit Kirpekar applies machine learning techniques to pressure rates from a dozen NFL seasons and comes up with some interesting conclusions -- most notably, that quarterbacks might be even more responsible than we thought for the pressure they do or do not face.