Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

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QB Functional Mobility Model 2019
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QB Functional Mobility Model 2019

Guest columnists Jeremy Rosen and Alexandre Olbrecht return to see which quarterback prospects in 2019 had the best footwork, and why that can be a valuable tool in predicting NFL success.

1 comment, Last at 09 Apr 2019, 5:59pm by Dan
Play-Action Passing and Game Conditions
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Play-Action Passing and Game Conditions

Guest columnist Ben Baldwin returns with more analysis of play-action passing data. Is it best to use play-action when ahead, or when trailing? Late in the game, or early? And does it matter how often a team passes after showing a handoff -- and is that tendency becoming more common?

15 comments, Last at 26 Mar 2019, 3:19pm by Chappy
Evaluating Third-and-Long Strategy with Expected Points
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Evaluating Third-and-Long Strategy with Expected Points

Which routes and coverages work best when the offense needs to pick up big yardage in one play? And which individuals played best and worst in those situations?

5 comments, Last at 19 Mar 2019, 9:27am by garion333
To Return or Not to Return
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To Return or Not to Return

When kickoffs go into the end zone, should returners try to make a play, or just take a knee and settle for a touchback? Guest columnist Jack Duffin breaks down the numbers and finds teams are making the wrong decision more often than not.

27 comments, Last at 23 Feb 2019, 6:24am by RobotBoy
EdjSports' Fourth-Down Report: Super Bowl LIII
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EdjSports' Fourth-Down Report: Super Bowl LIII

Super Bowl LIII was a great game if you like punting. Not so great if you like aggressive coaching that agrees with analytical models. (Click to read more.)

6 comments, Last at 07 Feb 2019, 4:27pm by PirateFreedom
Evaluating Goal-to-Go Strategy with Expected Points
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Evaluating Goal-to-Go Strategy with Expected Points

Guest columnist Spencer Harrison looks at which plays are most and least successful at the goal line. Yes, the fade route is as bad as you think.

5 comments, Last at 29 Jan 2019, 6:37pm by PTORaven
Further Research on Play-Action Passing
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Further Research on Play-Action Passing

Guest columnist Ben Baldwin returns for another look at play-action passing in the NFL. Does a team's effectiveness on standard passes have an effect on play-action success? Do teams that run the ball a lot use play-action more often? Do teams that run well use play-action more? And finally, is play-action more effective when it's used sparingly?

14 comments, Last at 15 Dec 2018, 7:38pm by LionInAZ
Introducing Rate of Adjusted Pressure
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Introducing Rate of Adjusted Pressure

Guest columnist Ajit Kirpekar applies machine learning techniques to pressure rates from a dozen NFL seasons and comes up with some interesting conclusions -- most notably, that quarterbacks might be even more responsible than we thought for the pressure they do or do not face.

19 comments, Last at 01 Apr 2019, 11:04am by theslothook
Introducing Total Points
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Introducing Total Points

Alex Vigderman of Sports Info Solutions introduces Total Points, a tool for player evaluation. Like DVOA, it starts with play-by-play data, but then it adds charting information to more accurately measure the contributions of each player on the field. And it will tell you that Matt Ryan has been the NFL's best quarterback for several years now.

6 comments, Last at 19 Nov 2018, 10:28am by 3cardmonty
Schedule Strength in College Football
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Schedule Strength in College Football

The Ohio State Buckeyes have one of the most talented rosters in college football. Their opponents, however, do not. Guest columnist Akshay Ramprakash looks at the caliber of athlete at every school to see which teams are heavyweights and which are punching bags.

2 comments, Last at 13 Oct 2018, 10:07am by akshaynr