Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Guest's blog

To Return or Not to Return
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To Return or Not to Return

When kickoffs go into the end zone, should returners try to make a play, or just take a knee and settle for a touchback? Guest columnist Jack Duffin breaks down the numbers and finds teams are making the wrong decision more often than not.

24 comments, Last at 21 Feb 2019, 5:51pm by Bright Blue Shorts
EdjSports' Fourth-Down Report: Super Bowl LIII
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EdjSports' Fourth-Down Report: Super Bowl LIII

Super Bowl LIII was a great game if you like punting. Not so great if you like aggressive coaching that agrees with analytical models. (Click to read more.)

6 comments, Last at 07 Feb 2019, 4:27pm by PirateFreedom
Evaluating Goal-to-Go Strategy with Expected Points
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Evaluating Goal-to-Go Strategy with Expected Points

Guest columnist Spencer Harrison looks at which plays are most and least successful at the goal line. Yes, the fade route is as bad as you think.

5 comments, Last at 29 Jan 2019, 6:37pm by PTORaven
Further Research on Play-Action Passing
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Further Research on Play-Action Passing

Guest columnist Ben Baldwin returns for another look at play-action passing in the NFL. Does a team's effectiveness on standard passes have an effect on play-action success? Do teams that run the ball a lot use play-action more often? Do teams that run well use play-action more? And finally, is play-action more effective when it's used sparingly?

14 comments, Last at 15 Dec 2018, 7:38pm by LionInAZ
Introducing Rate of Adjusted Pressure
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Introducing Rate of Adjusted Pressure

Guest columnist Ajit Kirpekar applies machine learning techniques to pressure rates from a dozen NFL seasons and comes up with some interesting conclusions -- most notably, that quarterbacks might be even more responsible than we thought for the pressure they do or do not face.

17 comments, Last at 12 Dec 2018, 11:12pm by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual
Introducing Total Points
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Introducing Total Points

Alex Vigderman of Sports Info Solutions introduces Total Points, a tool for player evaluation. Like DVOA, it starts with play-by-play data, but then it adds charting information to more accurately measure the contributions of each player on the field. And it will tell you that Matt Ryan has been the NFL's best quarterback for several years now.

6 comments, Last at 19 Nov 2018, 10:28am by 3cardmonty
Schedule Strength in College Football
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Schedule Strength in College Football

The Ohio State Buckeyes have one of the most talented rosters in college football. Their opponents, however, do not. Guest columnist Akshay Ramprakash looks at the caliber of athlete at every school to see which teams are heavyweights and which are punching bags.

2 comments, Last at 13 Oct 2018, 10:07am by akshaynr
Lamar Jackson Part III: Analyzing the Film
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Lamar Jackson Part III: Analyzing the Film

Enough with the numbers -- guest columnist Keegan Abdoo goes to the film to show how Lamar Jackson's unique talents can drive defensive coaches (and players) insane.

2 comments, Last at 03 Sep 2018, 3:51pm by njgiants333
Lamar Jackson Part II: Deterring Man Cover-2
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Lamar Jackson Part II: Deterring Man Cover-2

In the second part of his look at scrambling quarterbacks, guest columnist Keegan Abdoo shows how Lamar Jackson and similar mobile quarterbacks can limit the playbooks of opposing defensive coordinators.

 Lamar Jackson Part I: The Joy of Scrambles
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Lamar Jackson Part I: The Joy of Scrambles

What kind of impact does a running quarterback like Lamar Jackson have, and how does that change between NCAA and NFL football? Guest columnist Keegan Abdoo starts to answer those questions by looking at what coverage schemes are most vulnerable to scrambles in college and the pros.

6 comments, Last at 03 Sep 2018, 3:55pm by njgiants333