Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Nathan Forster's blog

SackSEER 2019
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SackSEER 2019

Our statistical projections for edge rushers in this year's draft agree with the consensus that the talent pool at the position is deep, but are surprisingly pessimistic about Ohio State's Nick Bosa, expected to be the first pass-rusher off the board Thursday night. Who has the best statistical profile? That's a surprise too.

16 comments, Last at 24 Apr 2019, 3:07am by Subrata Sircar
BackCAST 2019
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BackCAST 2019

Sometimes statistical projections simply reinforce common consensus -- and sometimes they knock that consensus on its ear. Welcome to BackCAST's projections for 2019 running backs, where a likely Day 3 pick leads the way, and the scouts' favorites fare quite poorly.

4 comments, Last at 12 Jun 2019, 3:48am by nath
ESPN: Projecting the Top Edge Rushers in the 2019 NFL Draft

ESPN: Projecting the Top Edge Rushers in the 2019 NFL Draft

Here are the top 2019 SackSEER results, our projections for edge rushers in the 2019 NFL draft. This will also run here on FO in the near future.

Playmaker Score 2019
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Playmaker Score 2019

Marquise Brown -- top target for both Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray at Oklahoma -- is the top wide receiver prospect in this year's draft class ... which says a lot about how limited the prospects this year are.

1 comment, Last at 14 Apr 2019, 10:44am by gofastjoey
ESPN: Projecting 2019 NFL Draft's Top Running Backs

ESPN: Projecting 2019 NFL Draft's Top Running Backs

Here's a look at Nathan Forster's BackCAST projections for running backs in the 2019 draft, which come out very different from conventional wisdom. In particular, BackCAST really doesn't like Josh Jacobs of Alabama, considered a good candidate to be the first back off the board. Read this article at ESPN+ and find out why not. We'll also be running these projections on Football Outsiders sometime before draft day.

BackCAST 2018
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BackCAST 2018

The question is not whether Saquon Barkley is the best running back in this draft class. The question is whether any running back, even one as good as Barkley, warrants a top-five draft selection in the NFL in 2018.

38 comments, Last at 28 Apr 2018, 5:29pm by JustAnotherFalconsFan
SackSEER 2018
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

SackSEER 2018

The experts say that North Carolina State's Bradley Chubb will be the first edge rusher taken in the NFL draft, but our forecast system doubts he'll be much more productive than some of his peers.

16 comments, Last at 18 Apr 2018, 3:00pm by mehllageman56

BackCAST 2018 (ESPN version)

FO's BackCAST projections for running backs are here, led by Saquon Barkley. Barkley gets the second highest projection since 1998, behind only Ricky Williams. The Barkley debate is fascinating: we don't advise taking running backs high, but what do you do when there aren't great prospects at the positions we usually advise taking high? Backing the idea of taking Barkley higher than other running backs: he's also by far the best receiving back in this year's class, giving him plenty of value even if the passing game is by far more important than the running game.

20 comments, Last at 16 Apr 2018, 12:46pm by jtr
Playmaker Score 2018
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

Playmaker Score 2018

Though Alabama's Calvin Ridley is expected to be the first wide receiver taken in the 2018 NFL draft, our numbers say that Maryland's D.J. Moore is the most promising name in a lackluster group of prospects.

19 comments, Last at 05 May 2018, 9:36pm by Adrian---

SackSEER 2018 (ESPN version)

Surprise! Bradley Chubb is not the No. 1 edge rusher in this year's SackSEER projections. Who beats him? Is it Harold Landry, Marcus Davenport, or Sam Hubbard? Find out here.