Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Scott Kacsmar's blog

ESPN Upset Watch: Vikings-Bears
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ESPN Upset Watch: Vikings-Bears

Chicago is the better team by DVOA, but Minnesota is coming off the bye week and gets Stefon Diggs back. At ESPN+ Chalk, we look at what the Vikings need to do in order to upset the Bears in an important NFC North meeting. Cover Watch looks at the Monday Chiefs-Rams game.

2 comments, Last at 16 Nov 2018, 10:49am by andrew
Clutch Encounters: Week 10
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Clutch Encounters: Week 10

Is time just a flat circle in the NFC East? Jason Garrett ends another short losing streak and the Eagles fail to close again. Also: Rams sweep Seattle, the Giants distance themselves from the No. 1 pick, and the final nail in Jacksonville's coffin is not a Blake Bortles turnover.

5 comments, Last at 16 Nov 2018, 3:57pm by Eddo
Clutch Encounters: Week 9
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Clutch Encounters: Week 9

Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady hand off to running backs (pseudo and real) with varying results. Also: Drew Brees is the 1972 Dolphins' favorite quarterback, the Chargers hang on again, Sam Darnold epitomizes the AFC East QB struggle, and why are coaches losing their minds vs. Bill O'Brien?

19 comments, Last at 09 Nov 2018, 7:56pm by Lost Ti-Cats Fan
ESPN: Most Misleading QB Stats of 2018
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ESPN: Most Misleading QB Stats of 2018

Looking at surface stats can be misleading, as is the case with Eli Manning, Andrew Luck, and other quarterbacks this season. Plus, how will the second half play out for each?

Clutch Encounters: Week 8
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Clutch Encounters: Week 8

The Rams remain perfect halfway through after surviving some pressure from Green Bay. Also: Luck's first comeback win since 2016, last dance for the Jaguars, Robo QB in KC, and no one circles the wagons for a close blowout like the Buffalo Bills.

11 comments, Last at 02 Nov 2018, 12:00pm by Damon
Clutch Encounters: Week 7
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Clutch Encounters: Week 7

The NFC East is for sale while the NFC South goes 4-0. Even Atlanta held another lead. Also: Mike Vrabel's London call, the history of "two-or-die" conversions, Justin Tucker's human moment, and Chicago's Hail Mary to the 1-yard line.

4 comments, Last at 24 Oct 2018, 1:25pm by andrew
Clutch Encounters: Week 6
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Clutch Encounters: Week 6

A bland week was spiced up by the Chiefs-Patriots and 49ers-Packers in prime time. Also: Pittsburgh loves playing in Cincinnati, Brock Osweiler loves the Bears, Falcons on the winning side of history, and is Nathan Peterman the worst NFL quarterback in decades?

8 comments, Last at 18 Oct 2018, 8:42am by Lost Ti-Cats Fan
2018 ALEX: The Early Results
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2018 ALEX: The Early Results

Our first look at 2018 ALEX finds Aaron Rodgers No. 1 in a key category, but why is Eli Manning right behind him? We also focus heavily on quarterbacks from the last four drafts, including one we should have predicted would have a high ALEX for based on his college days.

4 comments, Last at 12 Oct 2018, 1:02am by RobotBoy
Clutch Encounters: Week 5
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Clutch Encounters: Week 5

Sean McVay iced the Seahawks with the NFL's most effective play, but did Pete Carroll use his timeouts wrong? Also: Doug Pederson's rare two-point conversion, Josh Allen channels Mike McMahon, and one of the greatest field goals in NFL history bails out Carolina.

13 comments, Last at 11 Oct 2018, 11:35am by Joe Pancake
Drew Brees: The NFL's Passing King
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Drew Brees: The NFL's Passing King

Drew Brees needs 201 passing yards to surpass Peyton Manning as the NFL's new passing king. How long can his reign last, and who are the top challengers to the record?

43 comments, Last at 07 Oct 2018, 6:53pm by Alternator