Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Scott Kacsmar's blog

FiveThirtyEight: Barkley Isn't the Hero Your Team Needs

At FiveThirtyEight, we looked at the conundrum of drafting Penn State running back Saquon Barkley in the top five, especially if you're the Browns or Giants. While workhorse backs have been romanticized for decades of NFL history, the league has shifted away from them in favor of more passing and a by-committee approach to the position. We also have not seen first-round backs outperform those taken in later rounds. The rushing DVOA since 2002 is the second lowest in the first round, and there's essentially no difference in yards per carry among the seven rounds. Running backs truly can be found anywhere, and Super Bowl-winning teams this century have also proven that.

24 comments, Last at 03 May 2018, 9:55pm by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual
2017 Adjusted Games Lost: By Unit
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2017 Adjusted Games Lost: By Unit

Our breakdown of injuries by unit finds one team that has been hit hard at wide receiver and linebacker multiple times in recent years. Also: the Rams were very healthy across the board, and one hyped unit disappointed greatly despite great health.

7 comments, Last at 14 Oct 2018, 11:46am by kool
2017 Adjusted Games Lost
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

2017 Adjusted Games Lost

Two NFC teams were hit hardest by injuries last year. One already set the AGL record in 2016, while the other has a coach with the worst AGL since 2002. Also: the Rams' incredible bill of health in L.A., and Tampa Bay's questionable injury reporting.

7 comments, Last at 26 Mar 2018, 5:49am by killwer

Chiefs Trade Marcus Peters to Rams

Marcus Peters has been traded from Kansas City to the Los Angeles Rams for undisclosed draft picks.

19 comments, Last at 27 Feb 2018, 1:58pm by Steve in WI
Four Downs: NFC North
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Four Downs: NFC North

Who will be Minnesota's quarterback? Mitchell Trubisky is QB1 in Chicago, but who's catching the ball? Can the Lions ever find a running back again? Finally, the Packers could use an upgrade at edge rusher, but this may be the wrong draft to do so.

36 comments, Last at 03 Mar 2018, 5:04pm by LionInAZ
Failed Completions 2017
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Failed Completions 2017

2017 was indeed The Year of the Failed Completion. This is the stat where Joe Flacco stands out, but not in a good way. Also: a most conservative rookie, weird splits for Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers, and more Jarvis Landry shortcomings.

19 comments, Last at 27 Feb 2018, 4:19pm by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual
Postseason QB Stats: 2017 Update
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Postseason QB Stats: 2017 Update

Nick Foles channeled his inner Joe Montana and Jeff Hostetler for one of the best, most improbable playoff runs of the DVOA era. Tom Brady also saw his best postseason not result in a ring, which has been common in his career.

22 comments, Last at 10 Feb 2018, 10:33pm by Aaron Brooks Good Twin
Clutch Encounters: Super Bowl LII
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Clutch Encounters: Super Bowl LII

There were air yards. There were rushing yards. There were QB receiving yards. There were more yards in Super Bowl LII than in any other game in NFL history. The 2017 season ends like it began: with New England's defense getting destroyed.

45 comments, Last at 08 Feb 2018, 3:09am by Jerry

NFL Honors and 2018 Hall of Fame Class Announced

The NFL unveils its latest award winners and the 2018 Pro Football Hall of Fame class.

38 comments, Last at 13 Feb 2018, 2:01am by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual

FiveThirtyEight: Sneaky Stats That Could Decide Super Bowl LII

At FiveThirtyEight, we looked at a few more stats to keep in mind for this Super Bowl, including New England's No. 1 ranking in weighted DVOA, its No. 31 ranking in defensive DVOA for the season, how Tom Brady has been dealing with pressure as he's gotten older, and how the game script has gotten so familiar in New England Super Bowls.

7 comments, Last at 05 Feb 2018, 5:06pm by ChrisS