Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Scott Kacsmar's blog

FiveThirtyEight: The Experience Required to Beat the Patriots

A look at one of the more unique splits in NFL history: the Patriots are 15-0 in the playoffs against new opponents, but 12-9 in rematches in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era.

3 comments, Last at 29 Jan 2018, 11:54am by FireSnake
Clutch Encounters: AFC Championship Game
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Clutch Encounters: AFC Championship Game

Jacksonville tried to steal the show, but the Patriots reminded us that quarterbacks are still the main attraction in the NFL. You can't hide them, but you have to protect them late in games. The Patriots did so again to pull off another fourth-quarter comeback.

92 comments, Last at 26 Jan 2018, 10:20am by Anon Ymous

FiveThirtyEight: Championship QBs Under Pressure

At FiveThirtyEight, I did a mini-preview of championship weekend by looking at how the quarterbacks fared under pressure this season, and how these defenses could be a problem for them. Case Keenum and Tom Brady led all quarterbacks in QBR under pressure this season, but things may not be as easy for Nick Foles and Blake Bortles.

NFC Championship Preview 2018
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

NFC Championship Preview 2018

Somebody has to Jeff Hostetler their way into Super Bowl LII. Will it be the Eagles, with a tenacious defense and home-field advantage? Or will it be the Vikings, who've gotten a better performance (and more of it) from backup-turned-MVP candidate Case Keenum?

24 comments, Last at 20 Jan 2018, 10:34pm by MC2
Clutch Encounters: Divisional Round
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Clutch Encounters: Divisional Round

Stefon Diggs saves the Vikings after one of the greatest touchdowns in NFL history. Also: Atlanta's horrific red zone sequence, and Pittsburgh's odd history of high-scoring playoff losses.

23 comments, Last at 18 Jan 2018, 8:03pm by t.d.
AFC Divisional Round Playoff Preview 2018
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AFC Divisional Round Playoff Preview 2018

On Saturday night, Marcus Mariota and the Titans become the latest team to seek an upset in Foxborough. Sunday morning, Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers look to avenge their worst loss of the season.

27 comments, Last at 14 Jan 2018, 1:56pm by JMM
ALEX: 2017 Season Review
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ALEX: 2017 Season Review

A familiar face finishes on top, and again we find a star rookie at the bottom. Can Mitchell Trubisky undergo a Jared Goff transformation? Also: the best third-down defense of this era, and the unit that couldn't pressure anyone to force the ball short.

7 comments, Last at 12 Jan 2018, 12:52pm by MilkmanDanimal

ESPN: Divisional Round DFS Matchups

At ESPN Insider, our final fantasy column of the season looks at DFS matchups for the divisional round. Some of our favorite plays include Case Keenum, Dion Lewis, Alshon Jeffery, and Kyle Rudolph. We also like one of Pittsburgh's three stars far more than the other two.

2 comments, Last at 11 Jan 2018, 3:06pm by Scott Kacsmar
Clutch Encounters: Wild Card
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Clutch Encounters: Wild Card

The latest Kansas City playoff loss at home ("The Forward Progress Game") is the worst yet. Also: Sean Payton brings us back to fourth-and-2 memories, and a Nathan Peterman interception ends Buffalo's season.

29 comments, Last at 10 Jan 2018, 10:15pm by eagle97a

FiveThirtyEight: 12 Playoff Teams Are Enough for the NFL

The Bills and Titans are in the playoffs, which might be enough of an argument itself to not expand the playoffs. But we looked at DVOA since 2002 to see that playoff expansion wouldn't be a good idea.

43 comments, Last at 13 Jan 2018, 1:26am by RickD