Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Vincent Verhei's blog

ESPN: Ranking the NFL's Most Likely Worst-to-First Teams
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ESPN: Ranking the NFL's Most Likely Worst-to-First Teams

The Philadelphia Eagles went from last place in the NFC East in 2016 to division champs (and, of course, Super Bowl winners) in 2017. Which last-place teams have the brightest outlook heading into 2018? The candidates aren't as strong as usual, but we like the odds for Deshaun Watson and the Texans.

1 comment, Last at 17 Aug 2018, 6:15pm by The Ninjalectual
2018 KUBIAK vs. ADP: The Overrated
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2018 KUBIAK vs. ADP: The Overrated

The players going too high in fantasy drafts this year generally have one thing in common: risk. Remember, everyone, that old players tend to decline; injured players don't always return to health; suspensions can be a red flag; and success in small sample sizes can be misleading.

13 comments, Last at 17 Aug 2018, 2:15pm by The Ninjalectual

Best/Worst Red Zone Pass Offenses Since 1986

The 2017 Philadelphia Eagles had one of the best red zone passing offenses we have ever measured, while the 2017 Browns had one of the worst. (Click to read more.)

5 comments, Last at 27 Jul 2018, 4:41pm by The Ninjalectual

Two-Point Study at Riley-Kolste Football

Noah Riley, a student-athlete at Lewis & Clark College in Portland (and nephew of former Oregon State Beavers/Nebraska Cornhuskers/San Diego Chargers head coach Mike Riley) went back and charted every two-point conversion in the NFL in the last seven years to find out what works best (bootlegs, pick plays, and most runs) and what doesn't (fade routes). He broke things down in great detail by play design and route combination, and included video samples of each play type. It's phenomenally comprehensive stuff that is both enlightening and educational.

15 comments, Last at 11 Jul 2018, 2:14pm by Will Allen

Kam Chancellor Announces Retirement

In unsurprising news, Seattle Seahawks strong safety Kam Chancellor has announced his retirement due to a neck injury suffered last year against Arizona.

48 comments, Last at 22 Jul 2018, 9:00am by bachslunch

Jameis Winston Suspended for Three Games

It's almost old news at this point, but it just became official today: Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston has been suspended for the first three games of the 2018 season.

55 comments, Last at 23 Jul 2018, 1:40pm by IAmAFootballFan
2017 Defeats
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2017 Defeats

The Cardinals had a winning record with backup quarterbacks last year thanks in large part to their high-profile edge rusher who terrorized opposing offenses. We look at defeat leaders for every position, as well as overall leaders over the past few seasons.

27 comments, Last at 20 Jun 2018, 9:08pm by TomC
Adjusted Interceptions 2017
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Adjusted Interceptions 2017

It has been many years since we have seen a quarterback as unlucky as Matt Ryan was last year. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings should be extremely concerned about the quarterbacks (yes, plural) they acquired this offseason.

29 comments, Last at 04 Jun 2018, 9:46pm by Vincent Verhei

Peter King Says Farewell to SI's Monday Morning QB

After almost 30 years at Sports Illustrated and founding The MMQB, Peter King is leaving to take a writing/radio/TV role with NBC Sports starting in July.

47 comments, Last at 06 Jul 2018, 9:11pm by Duff Soviet Union
Four Downs: NFC East
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Four Downs: NFC East

With the draft behind us, NFL rosters won't see many big changes between now and opening day. We start our look at each team's biggest remaining need in the NFC East, where Dallas needs offense, New York and Washington need defense, and Philly needs a punter.

11 comments, Last at 11 May 2018, 1:28pm by HildonCarrapito