Vincent Verhei's blog

We've all seen the Next Gen Stats as part of NFL broadcasts -- player speed, distance traveled, etc. -- but this story on NFL.com is the first time I've seen anything really useful done with the data. For each pass thrown in the NFL, they've calculated the likelihood of a completion based on six factors:

• Air distance, the actual distance between the passer and receiver, both horizontally and vertically.
• Target separation, the distance between the receiver and the nearest defender in coverage.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has been the best quarterback in the league this year, followed closely by Patrick Mahomes. We put their starts in historical perspective (spoiler: they're really good) and ask if there's any significance to that. Plus, the best and worst passers, runners, and receivers of Week 2.

Here is this week's Football Outsiders open game discussion thread, the place to discuss all the games all weekend long, starting with the kickoff contest Thursday night between Baltimore and Cincinnati and continuing through Monday Night Football when the Seahawks take on the Bears.

Well, did not see this coming. The Cleveland Browns have announced they will release Josh Gordon, the uber-talented, uber-troubled wide receiver. (UPDATE: Actually, they traded him to New England for a fifth-round pick.)

While the quarterbacks in New Orleans were putting up epic fantasy numbers, a rookie special teamer was quietly threatening to put his name in the NFL's all-time record books.

For a lot of Football Outsiders, this won't come as a big surprise, but NFL coaches tend to run way too often, even in long-yardage situations where passing would seem to be a much better strategy. Josh Hermsmeyer at FiveThirtyEight shows all the data and finds only one team that passed more than it ran on second-and-long: your reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.

Which teams and players will surprise their fans this season, and which will disappoint? Who will win the Super Bowl, and who will pick first in the draft? The FO staff makes their predictions for 2018, which looks like a long season for the Buffalo Bills.

The New York Jets are trading quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to the New Orleans Saints. The news was first reported by NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.

Once again this year, we've worked with SB Nation to answer questions about Football Outsiders Almanac 2018 and the upcoming NFL season. We'll post answers for each team as they are published. (Click to read more.)

The New York Giants have signed wide receiver Odell Beckham to a five-year, $96 million contract extension. He is guaranteed $65 million, the most ever for a wide receiver, and will average more than $20 million over the next three years.

According to Kevin Patra of NFL.com, the only players in the league with more guaranteed money are Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins. The deal will average $19 million per year, second among non-quarterbacks behind Von Miller.