Clutch Encounters: Week 14 MIN-ARI

by Scott Kacsmar

On paper, this should have been one of the best Thursday night games of the season between two NFC contenders. But on paper that shows more than just team records in boldface print, this should have been a lopsided contest. Arizona's defense only needed a simple game plan: contain Adrian Peterson, expect Patrick Peterson to shut down Stefon Diggs, and pressure Teddy Bridgewater in a very limited passing game. As if the highest-scoring team in the league needed any more advantages, Minnesota's defense was shorthanded with starters Linval Joseph, Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith all inactive. If you are lacking at safety and cannot get pressure, then Carson Palmer should feast on the defense with the vertical passing game. How was Minnesota, after Sunday's 38-7 loss to Seattle, going to keep up on a short week on the road?

Naturally, Minnesota almost pulled off the upset. Both offenses were flowing all night, combining to score 43 points on a very efficient 17 possessions. The big plays mostly came from yards after the catch instead of bombs, and Bridgewater passed for a career-high 335 yards in nearly leading the comeback win. Nearly. Almost. These are words Minnesota fans have long grown tired of while consistent winning is still so new to Arizona fans. The Cardinals have won 11 games for the second year in a row after posting just three 11-win seasons from 1920 to 2013. Bruce Arians should be allowed to wear whatever he wants on the sideline. He is having a Coach of the Year performance for the fourth season in a row, though Thursday night was not his sharpest job, hence the finish.

We will work our way through a special Friday edition of Clutch Encounters for one of the best Thursday games of the past few seasons. The rest of Week 14's close games will be recapped on Tuesday as usual.

Game of the Week

Minnesota Vikings 20 at Arizona Cardinals 23

Type: GWD

Head Coach: Bruce Arians (12-8 at 4QC and 18-8 overall 4QC/GWD record)

Quarterback: Carson Palmer (19-45 at 4QC and 30-45 overall 4QC/GWD record)

Shrinking the number of possessions in a game with runs and high-percentage passes is a good underdog strategy, and one the Vikings are equipped to execute. The more chances you give the superior team, the more deep shots for Palmer to eventually hit. However, the Cardinals started the game in that mode, consuming half the quarter for a field goal. The drive flirted with scoring nothing after Jaron Brown, flexed like a tight end, took a screen and appeared to fumble inside the 10-yard line. Minnesota challenged, but the referees were off to a good start as he was clearly down on replay before losing control.

So that was never a fumble, but did David Johnson have a clean drop on third-and-goal? Johnson skirted past Chad Greenway with ease, but Palmer's pass hit the rookie back's shoulder. He never got his hands on the ball.

I wouldn't chart this as a drop for David Johnson. Think Palmer just missed the throw. Wide of the mark. pic.twitter.com/fZgoNfU9IM

— Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar) December 11, 2015

Adrian Peterson: Definitely Not "All Day" Production

Peterson did not back down from his comments that the Vikings were outcoached against Seattle last week. He was clearly frustrated with his 18-yard rushing day, the third-lowest output of his career. He looked fresh and fantastic on Minnesota's opening drive here, rushing for 38 yards on four carries, including a 9-yard touchdown.

Unfortunately, that means the rest of the way Peterson gained 31 yards on his last 19 carries. Minnesota entered the week as the most run-heavy offense on first down at just over 63.2 percent, but ranked 15th in DVOA. Arizona's first-down run defense was 17th in DVOA, so this matchup was fairly even. Arizona clearly caught on after the first drive as Peterson's 15 remaining first-down runs gained 21 yards, including five stuffs for losses.

In the second half, Arizona took advantage of the speed of Tyrann Mathieu and Deone Bucannon and their ability to play like linebackers in this scheme. Their run stuffs and pressures are critical against an offense built around the run and lacking quality receivers. Four years ago, a defense would be crazy not to keep a safety deep at all times against Mike Wallace, but this is 2015. Some of Minnesota's biggest pass plays were screens or dump-offs to backup tight ends and backs. Defenders like Bucannon and Mathieu speed up the play, which can force an offense into mistakes. Bucannon forced a fumble by Jarius Wright at the Arizona 15 when it looked like the Vikings were going to regain the lead in the second quarter.

The defensive backs definitely helped in making Peterson have an ineffective finish, but it was an unorthodox play that Minnesota would most like to have back. The offense was moving to start the third quarter with the game tied at 10, but at the Arizona 35, Norv Turner dialed up a reverse for Wallace to get the ball from Peterson. Left guard Brandon Fusco was unable to get a finger on Josh Mauro, who blew up Peterson in the backfield for a fumble. It is the seventh fumble of 2015 for Peterson, his most since 2009. That was a big turning point as the Cardinals began to take some control of the game.

Arizona's Teamwork

No one has hit the large volume of deep throws with the consistency of Palmer this year, and his two longest gains of the night went for touchdowns. However, these were not the bucket throws from past weeks. Late in the first quarter, John Brown ran an incredible route to beat Captain Munnerlyn in coverage. Palmer stepped up in the pocket to avoid pressure to find Brown at the 45-yard line. He had the speed and got enough blocking from little J.J. Nelson to run down the sideline for a 65-yard touchdown.

On a third-and-8 in the third quarter after the Peterson fumble, Minnesota had one of the oddest blown coverages you will ever see. Arizona lined up three wide receivers to the right. Jaron Brown was the furthest out wide, but he ran to the inside, drawing all three defenders to him. No one picked up Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald, who were all alone for an easy completion. Floyd made the catch and Fitzgerald was a great blocker for him, clearing a path to the end zone on a 42-yard score.

You just don't see blown coverage like this in the NFL every week. pic.twitter.com/uLFu789zJe

— Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar) December 11, 2015

It is so unusual to see two receivers that close together on a route, but you'll take it any time you get it, especially when one is willing to block. That play broke the Arizona single-season record for touchdown passes as it was Palmer's 31st of the season.

Manage Your Aggression, Master Bruce

Arizona followed up the score with a methodical drive, including a no-brainer decision to go for a fourth-and-1 at the Minnesota 38. Johnson converted for two yards, and later nearly had another touchdown before being ruled down at the 2-yard line. He was dealing with a health issue after his 24-yard run, which can explain why Stepfan Taylor was in the game. I would have a hard time not running the ball on all four downs in that situation, but would probably prefer Kerwynn Williams. On second down, Palmer was sacked on a play-action pass. After all the controversy in Detroit last week on the face mask penalty that was called, can you believe the referees missed one that was so obvious?

If the outcome is binary, you should be able to challenge it. This is obviously a face mask penalty. pic.twitter.com/BLBtJqaWr5

— Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar) December 11, 2015

Arians never used his two challenges or three timeouts in the second half. Think he would like to be able to challenge this missed call? Does anyone seriously think the game would be negatively impacted if there was an average of two more challenges per game to get game-changing plays right? Maybe the NFL can start small next year with penalties available for challenges, but one as binary as "face mask or no face mask" should be right near the top of the list. Not long after this one, the officials missed another face mask, this time on Bridgewater, which was worse than Detroit's incidental contact on Aaron Rodgers. Bridgewater even looked for the flag during the play.

Teddy Bridgewater not waiting till the play is over to complain about a missed facemask pic.twitter.com/dN7SIB2yeQ

— The Cauldron (@TheCauldron) December 11, 2015

Arizona led 20-10 after a field goal on the first play of the fourth quarter. Blair Walsh answered that with a 54-yard field goal. While Williams is better than Taylor for Arizona, I am not sure why he got a whole series of runs when you have a quarterback who should be leading the MVP race. The runs are a good strategy at the goal line, but stick to what you do best in conventional field position. Williams was stopped on third-and-1 and Arizona punted from its own 29 after a quick three-and-out that really bugs me.

Why not go for it again? At worst, you end up in a tied game with plenty of time left. If you trust your offense and defense, then the game should not get to 20-20 because of this call. Convert the yard or hold them to a field goal. By going for it you can get to 23-13 or 27-13, or at least burn off several more minutes of clock. This is the fourth-and-1 call -- let's use inside your own 35 with a one-score lead in fourth quarter -- I want to see start happening in the NFL. John Harbaugh just did it against the Browns from his own 24 while leading 24-20. Maybe he never does if the Ravens were better than 3-7, but he did it and it worked. Jeff Fisher even let his Rams try that ballsy fake punt to help beat Seattle in 2014. The only other recent time was also a team leading 24-20 on a Monday night like the Ravens were: Marc Trestman's Bears in Green Bay (2013) on the night Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone. A 20-13 lead should be even more reason to do it, but coaches are embarrassingly conservative with the lead. If guys like Fisher and Trestman can do it, what is stopping Arians?

The Comeback

Well, Arians has some history on his side. Since 2012, his teams are 30-1 when the defense has to protect a one-score lead in the fourth quarter. No one has done better than that.

I was trying to recall the last time the Vikings had a double-digit 4QC on the road. The CBS broadcast supplied the answer with a reminder of an incredible rally: the Vikings beat the Eagles in 1985 after trailing 23-0 in the fourth quarter. Over 30 years have passed without something even half as big as that miracle.

But this was within reach, even after the Vikings had to start at their own 12. A soft 15-yard penalty for roughing the passer sure helped after some incidental contact to the head. You just wonder if officials got flag-shy after that call, as the aforementioned missed face mask on Bridgewater happened just four plays later. Thankfully that concludes the referee discussion for this one as Wallace made a rare impact on this drive. He had a 23-yard gain after forcing a missed tackle and finished with a 7-yard touchdown. If the play looked familiar, it was the same concept Minnesota used to free up Wallace for a wide-open touchdown against the similarly aggressive Broncos in Week 4.

Knew that Mike Wallace TD looked familiar. Same concept vs. Broncos in Week 4. pic.twitter.com/kZe6mKC7Tq

— Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar) December 11, 2015

We had a 20-20 game with 4:55 left, so I again ask what is the harm in going for it on Arizona's previous possession?

The Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad GWD

Like any stat, a game-winning drive can come cheaply and fail to impress. We had a few of those in Week 10. What Arizona did here was so poor that it would have felt right for Minnesota to force overtime or score a touchdown so that this did not win the game. Let's count the mistakes.

First, Williams fielded the kick return deep in his end zone and only reached his own 16. On the first scrimmage play, the Vikings were offsides, but Floyd may have cut off his route, watching Palmer throw an interception that thankfully did not count. Trusting the referees to get the call right every time is a heroic gesture. At least Floyd made up for it with a great 22-yard snag.

Palmer's next pass was tipped at the line and bounced fortuitously to guard Mike Iupati, who actually got a 10-yard gain out of the play. You cannot deny Arizona got the bounces between that first down and recovering all three of Minnesota's fumbles. The Iupati catch also took so much time that the Cardinals did not need to run another play before the two-minute warning (one-second difference). The game was tied, the Vikings had all three timeouts and the ball was at their 41. There is no way you run a play there, yet Arizona snapped the ball at 2:04. Horrible clock management. Palmer forced a pass on second-and-6, but Daniel Fells failed to hold on in tight coverage. On third down, Palmer found Johnson for the first down, but the rookie went out of bounds to stop the clock even though he had room to keep the clock running. This is happening all over the league this season and it makes no sense.

If we assume Minnesota uses its timeouts and Arizona runs the same sequence of plays, but manages the clock correctly, then the Cardinals should have been able to run the ball three times and kick the winning field goal with about 15 seconds left. This stuff is not that hard to figure out, yet Arizona nearly blew it. The mistakes kept coming too as Williams managed to lose 8 yards on a run where he needed to just cut his losses sooner. Palmer tried to throw for the first down on third-and-16, which I applaud, but the Cardinals had two receivers in the same area again and Fitzgerald could not come down with the ball. That saved Minnesota a timeout and 1:23, but the Cardinals saved them so much more than even that on this drive. Credit to Chandler Catanzaro for the great 47-yard field goal that was never in doubt the moment it left his foot.

For Palmer, this is his 30th game-winning drive, making him only the 19th quarterback to hit that mark, and in the eighth-fewest games (159). He was not the problem on this sloppy drive.

Carson Palmer: 19th QB to reach 30 game-winning drives (done in 8th-fewest games). pic.twitter.com/Gq2sRbxfZw

— Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar) December 11, 2015

The Last Shot

Only needing a field goal, this was more than doable with 83 seconds left. A sack by Tony Jefferson could have been crippling, but that was where having the timeout Arizona gift-wrapped several times really helped. After the first considerable gain (14 yards) of the drive, Bridgewater spiked the ball and the Cardinals were penalized for 12 men on the field. When do you ever see a team substituting in an obvious spike situation? That was another weird Arizona thing in the final minutes.

Bridgewater found Wright for 22 yards at the Arizona 31 and this was looking destined for overtime with 23 seconds left. Arizona only rushed four and Bridgewater threw a high pass, followed by a throwaway to set up third down. You would like to get a shorter field goal. You know you probably cannot hold the ball long enough to throw a 31-yard touchdown, and any completion has to get out of bounds or the game is over. Minnesota was really limited on what it could do here. If you had a brilliant fake field goal pass in mind, this might have been the time for it.

The worst possible outcome was the actual outcome. Dwight Freeney's highlight package added another spin move for a game-clinching strip-sack. If the Matt Kalil lowlight reel was turned into a full-length film, only director Lars von Trier would be able to properly capture the sadness.

The Cardinals forced a last-second fumble to down the Vikings on Thursday: https://t.co/JvnupAMy32 pic.twitter.com/CUsQyHG4CT

— SB Nation NFL (@SBNationNFL) December 11, 2015

It is too hard to tell from the television angles what the Vikings were trying to do, but at least three of the five eligible receivers looked like they were headed to the sidelines. Bridgewater had enough time to take two steps forward after his drop and pad the ball. He needs to show better pocket presence and situational awareness than that, but this was a hit from behind. He did not just cough up the ball this time.

Just like in Denver in Week 4, the road-dog Vikings erased a 20-10 deficit in the fourth quarter, allowed the go-ahead field goal, and then watched Bridgewater lose the ball on a strip-sack in the final 30 seconds of a 23-20 defeat.

Both games really paint the same picture of where the Vikings are this season: good enough to hang with some of the best teams in the league, but not great enough to win these games yet. Arizona is a great team that won without playing its best football.

Season Summary

Fourth-quarter comeback wins: 59

Game-winning drives: 69 (plus six non-offensive game-winning scores)

Games with 4QC opportunity: 120/193 (62.2 percent)

10+ point comeback wins (any point in the game): 28

Historic data on fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives can be found at Pro-Football-Reference. Screen caps come from NFL Game Pass.