Mike Tomlin Continues to Fall
NFL Week 12 - There’s a new No. 32, as Mike Tomlin (PIT) drops one spot and replaces Robert Saleh (NYJ) in last place in the EdjSports Coach Rankings. Brandon Staley (LAC) remains atop the coach rankings for the second consecutive week, and the third week out of four. Matt LaFleur (GB) jumps one spot to second, bypassing the idle Kliff Kingsbury (ARI). Sean McDermott (BUF) and Frank Reich (IND) remain in place, rounding out the top 5. Urban Meyer (JAX) owns the biggest drop of the week (-8) followed by Mike McCarthy (DAL), who drops six spots to 12th and has now dropped 11 spots since sitting No. 1 after Week 10. The biggest jump belongs to Vic Fangio (DEN), followed by Bill Belichick (NE) who jumps five spots to 15th. While the Patriots move up two spots to second in EPI, Belichick’s fourth-down decision-making suppresses his overall rank, as he sits only 30th in CCI.
EdjSports is widely acclaimed for its in-game risk management analysis and proprietary Game-Winning Chance (GWC) metric used by NFL teams and media. GWC is a team’s win probability at any point in the game and is generated from the proprietary EdjFootball simulation model. EdjSports is creating the industry standard for head coach rankings by allocating its GWC to coaching decisions.
About the EdjFootball model Built on 20+ years of historical NFL play-by-play and statistical data, the EdjFootball model is a fully customizable simulation engine. It accounts for each team’s strengths and weaknesses on offense, defense, and special teams. Model inputs include game state (score, timeouts, quarter, clock, down and distance, and field position), venue characteristics (indoor, outdoor, grass, turf, elevation), second half kickoff team, key injuries and Football Outsiders DVOA. Each week the model evaluates team performances and adjusts team strengths and weakness accordingly. As a result of these analyses, over the course of a season the EdjFootball model simulates over 3 billion games to conclusion.
About the EdjSports Coach Rankings EdjSports analyzes every coaching decision during the course of a season. The EdjFootball model enables an in-depth examination of all critical calls (4th downs, PATs, and kickoffs), in terms of the amount of GWC at stake. The coach’s play-calling choices (run, pass, field goal, punt) are assessed at the point of decision (pre-snap) and rated with respect to their impact on winning the game. As a result of this process all play calling decisions can be objectively classified as either optimal decisions (correct calls) or suboptimal decisions (errors). The EdjSports Coach Rankings are based on this methodology and consist of two main components that result in the overall ranking.
Edj Power Indexes (EPI) Ranking This is a cumulative ranking of the Edj Power Indexes (EPIs) including Offensive Pass, Offensive Rush, Defensive Pass and Defensive Rush. This ranking is a reflection of how teams performed in every situation during the season.
Offensive Play Calling (CCI) Ranking This ranking is based on an analysis of offensive play calling on 4th downs and compares teams in terms of GWC lost or gained, on a normalized basis so that all teams are given the same test. Additionally, the CCI rankings are adjusted to account for the frequency and situational nature of critical calls to allow for fair comparisons of all 32 teams.
EdjSports Coach Ranking This ranking is a weighted average of the Edj Power Indexes (EPI) and Offensive Play Calling (CCI) Rankings that provides a more comprehensive assessment of coaching strengths and weaknesses.
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