FOA 2009 Preview: Running Backs

I don't think I'd say that Chris Brown was in a competition with Ryan Moats to be the #2 running back in Houston. I'd say that Moats was pretty much a lock to be the RB3, thanks to his combination of quality special teams play, good blitz pick-up, and total inability to run the ball effectively. Brown is the man in possession of the #2 spot, but he will face competition from UDFA Arian Foster (who I hope gets the job), UDFA Jeremiah Johnson (who I think will land on the practice squad), and some-back-the-Broncos-cut-in-camp (who I think will get the job).

I posted this on the Giants sample chapter, but it was way, way deep in the comments so I'm going to throw it out there once more even though I feel almost no one on earth agrees with me:

One of the few complaints I've had about PFP, and again about this Almanac sample, is that the blurbs for the skill positions players are consolidated and listed alphabetically rather than included in the team chapters. I always end up reading to the end of a team chapter, and then having to flip through the QB, RB, WR, and TE sections to get the "complete story" on that team. The only reason to organize them by position would be if this were a fantasy football guide, but this is a REALITY football guide and the teams should be the focus. I am an avid fantasy player and all that - but if people want fantasy guidance from FO they can download the sortable KUBIAK excels, or look up the KUBIAK projections in each team's chapter.

yeah but what if player is with Giants now and Giants trade him in August. now player is in wrong srection in book. at least if all Rbs are together they say togeter

cant wait to read what books says about C Schillens (veryt athletic receiver)), R Moss (starting to be crappy again like when with Raiders, Patriots fans going ,,,to find out what its like when Moss steals money) and some others

Moss on the downshide. not coutning season with Brady he hasn't been good since with Vikings.

I'm new to the Prospectus/Kubiak. Can anyone tell me their experience with KUBIAK. Is it worth $20??

Any word on when the print-to-order book version will be ready for me to place an order?

Thanks and the RB sample was great. I can't wait to get my teeth into that book!

I've been thinking a bit about the way KUBIAK sets up its projections and have been wondering if maybe there could be an added feature besides the great results it already gives.

Something I've begun to see advertised elsewhere is dynamic value based drafting. Right now, KUBIAK offers a real nice static base that does not change throughout the draft. The benefit of dynamic value based drafting is in question. I am not sure if it is better or not. But I am wondering about it. It seems like it could give better recommendations.

For example, if I am the 8th pick in the draft in a 10 team league I can look at the odd numbered rounds and look at the teams 9 and 10 and figure out what positions they need. Suppose they already have their QBs but I don't yet. I could take a QB, or I could delay my QB pick until the even numbered round and still get the same QB since I see the other two teams probably do not need one and therefore won't pick another QB yet. However, I could pick someone in another position before those next 4 picks get a chance to swipe him. Thus, not only would I be getting a better talent at the position I next want to draft beyond QB, but I still won't proably take a hit at the quality of QB I could draft. Thus, what I am seeing advertised, is dynamic value based drafting that centers on opportunity cost and taking into account what each team already has and needs live throughout the draft. What I would love to see is the % that I can forgo a certain player and still see him available next round/pick. A high % would make the player likely to be available my next pick, while a low % one is a player that would likely be drafted by other teams before my next pick. Make sense? It is dynamic and live rather than just static. It might be easy for teams (in a 10 team league) in draft picks 2, 3, 8, and 9 to do this but teams drafting in the middle or at the ends are going to have a much harder time figuring out who will be most likely available to them. This also takes into account supply and demand. If the supply of top tier WRs is small then the demand may be very high for those players too. I have no idea how to do this in excel but it makes me wonder if this would be a helpful tool to consider adding to KUBIAK. Make sense?

You're pretty kind to Barber. My overall view of his performance last year is that he's a role player who was paid to be a star. The injuries certainly didn't help (he was fighting bruised ribs from the first game onwards, by the way); but I'm still not convinced he's a 20-carry a game guy.

Thankfully, the Cowboys have a trio of talented backs they can use, though Garrett seemed reluctant last year to go to a running-back-by-committee approach.

I will be buying it regardless, but can you tell us a little more about this year's KUBIAK's auction tools? Will it just be a list of values for standard roster/scoring systems or will there be some interactivity (i.e., you input your league's parameters and it will spit out figures)?

Also, this is probably asking for too much, but my hope is that KUBIAK will be a tool we can use during auction drafts that will change values on the fly, based upon players being over- and under-valued at each position as the draft goes on. That would be an extremely valuable tool to me.

Will we be able to not count weeks 14-16 as double, but still remove week 17?

Also strongly considering picking up the KUBIAK this year, mostly because I don't have the time or feel like creating my own spreadsheet doing something similar (although far less complex and comprehensive). My main question, does the KUBIAK sheet have an easy way to facilitate VONA drafting? I can just do the math in my head, but it would be nice if there were some existing tools to make it easier (and my selection time shorter).

Is there a place where I can get old versions of Kubiak to see what it is all about (i.e. if my small brain can figure out how to use it)?

Where do I place my order? Or can I not order until July 8th?

What is normally included in the premium content?

OK, it is July 8th, where is the almanac?

Underpromise and overdeliver.

Please don't leave us hangin, is the book coming out today? Looking forward to it!

C'mon. Give us an update. Anything.

There is an update! And 2009 KUBIAK! Go to http://www.footballoutsiders.com/store/2009-kubiak

So is the book officially NOT coming out today? Possibly tomorrow?

Thanks for the quick response, I sent you an email if you don't mind checking it out.

Has anyone gotten the KUBIAK download to actually work? Looking into it, I didn't pay by PayPal e-check so that shouldn't be the reason it is not showing up for me. I wanted to ask and make sure I wasn't the only one without the link yet before I bugged Aaron et al, though.

Having the same issues...paid with Visa, not seeing download button anywhere.

Then I wish I hadn't gone ahead and bought it. I would not have done so had I known I would not be able to see it until after the Almanac was available too.

I was willing to forego the combination discount and pay a little extra to see KUBIAK today rather than tomorrow. If I am not going to see KUBIAK today anyway, then I wish I could have taken advantage of the discount.

I'm clicking the refresh button like a mouse in a Skinner Box and frothing at the sides of my mouth like Pavlov's dogs. When will my animalistic urges be quenched?

I am in the same boat!!! Gosh Darn left Coast and their "morning" speak. It's almost lunch time here!!!!

ARRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!

I thought you guys were out of Boston, and therefore its already not morning there.

and morning has officially come and gone in the good old CST. Do any of the rest of you think that Aaron et al. must be having one really crappy day so far? nothing like finding issues on deadline day.

First! It's now available in the store - I've bought & downloaded it.