Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
As part of our ongoing Stat of the Day series, we're digging deep into our spreadsheets to run a new stat every weekday until Super Bowl XLIV.
Today's list looks at "failed completions." These are passes that are complete, but don't get enough yardage to count as "successful plays" according to FO guidelines: 45 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent on second down, or 100 percent on third/fourth down.
If you enjoyed last year's Chicago-Denver trade, well, this week's list is for you.
| Most Failed Completions |
Highest Rate Failed Completions (min. 100 completions) |
|||||
| Player | Team | Total | Player | Team | Pct | |
| 6-J.Cutler | CHI | 94 | x | 5-T.Edwards | BUF | 35.5% |
| 8-K.Orton | DEN | 90 | x | 2-J.Russell | OAK | 35.0% |
| 8-M.Hasselbeck | SEA | 87 | x | 11-A.Smith | SF | 34.7% |
| 7-M.Cassel | KC | 86 | x | 14-R.Fitzpatrick | BUF | 34.6% |
| 8-M.Schaub | HOU | 85 | x | 7-M.Cassel | KC | 31.5% |
| 4-B.Favre | MIN | 85 | x | 10-B.Quinn | CLE | 30.9% |
| 9-D.Brees | NO | 84 | x | 8-M.Hasselbeck | SEA | 29.7% |
| 9-D.Garrard | JAC | 81 | x | 6-J.Cutler | CHI | 28.0% |
| 17-J.Campbell | WAS | 79 | x | 8-K.Orton | DEN | 26.8% |
| 18-P.Manning | IND | 79 | x | 9-D.Garrard | JAC | 25.8% |
Now we'll flip things around and look at receivers. This is actually what inspired this list as stat of the day: Vince Verhei wanted to know if Wes Welker led all receivers in this stat for 2009. Actually, if you look at the quarterbacks list and then remember the most memorable individual performances of the year, you should be able to figure out which receiver tops this list. It isn't Welker; he's high up there, but nobody even comes close to the guy at number one.
I left off running backs, because otherwise they would dominate the list. Obviously, they get a lot of failed completions as dumpoff outlets.
|
Most Failed Completions (WR/TE only) |
Highest Rate Failed Completions (min. 30 completions, WR/TE only) |
|||||
| Player | Team | Total | Player | Team | Pct | |
| 15-B.Marshall | DEN | 31 | x | 86-D.Lee | GB | 51.4% |
| 84-J.Morgan | SF | 22 | x | 84-J.Morgan | SF | 42.3% |
| 83-W.Welker | NE | 22 | x | 16-D.Amendola | STL | 36.4% |
| 82-J.Witten | DAL | 22 | x | 83-D.Branch | SEA | 33.3% |
| 80-Z.Miller | OAK | 20 | x | 15-M.Crabtree | SF | 33.3% |
| 85-V.Davis | SF | 19 | x | 86-D.Northcutt | DET | 31.4% |
| 44-D.Clark | IND | 19 | x | 15-B.Marshall | DEN | 30.7% |
| 86-D.Lee | GB | 19 | x | 80-Z.Miller | OAK | 30.3% |
| 86-H.Ward | PIT | 19 | x | 80-B.Scaife | TEN | 28.9% |
| 83-H.Miller | PIT | 19 | x | 85-D.Thomas | NO | 28.6% |
1 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
How many of Marshall's completions were failed against the Colts?
2 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
Russell should be exempted due to small sample size.
3 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
I think a shorthand term for a failed completion should be a "Shoop" in honor of former Bears offensive coordinator John Shoop. Bears fans will know what I mean.
6 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
I don't think Shoop ever met a 3rd down he couldn't throw short on the sticks on.
35 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
FO should do a "Shoop of the year" award for most ridiculous (designed) play on 3rd or 4th down. I would nominate the screen to Julian Edelman on 4th and 7 last Sunday (the one where he made the first down with a superb individual effort only to have it called back by a holding penalty.)
8 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
I'd call it a Harrington... more name recognition.
(I also like the Eagles)
9 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
Not a Campbell?
13 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
"McNair"? Or is that too soon?
23 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
Well, Campbell was tied with Peyton Manning for ninth in total number, and didn't make it into the top (bottom?) 10 for rate (though it wouldn't surprise me if he narrowly missed the cutoff) ...
24 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
How about we just call it a CLE QB and that'll be that...
17 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
Why not just call it a Jauron? You get his Bears and Bills efforts.
18 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
Or, I suppose a Dick Completion
4 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
Cutler is first in failed completions, but no Bears on the receiver list. I guess he spread them around.
Also, Cutler is listed ahead of Orton on the percentage list, but has a lower percentage.
14 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
Or that most of them were to Forte, who would be excluded from the second list.
15 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
Oops! Pasted wrong numbers for the bottom two guys when I decided to increase the minimum to be ranked. I've fixed that now.
5 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
Welker has a lot of failed completions...but only because he had a TON of receptions. His percentage doesn't make the top 10.
So the answer is "no, his stats aren't inflated."
27 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
In fact, his percentage was no higher than 17.9%. Compared to #10 at 28+%.
7 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
Interesting that percentage failed completion seems to be a much better indicator of QB quality than total failed completions. QBs widely considered to be elite (Peyton Manning, Drew Brees) and controversially considered to be elite (Brett Favre Matt Schaub) are in the top ten of total FC. Top ten of percentage is a veritable who's who of terrible QBs.
10 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
Well that makes sense, doesn't it? The total failed completions is a counting stat, not a rate stat. So, the quarterbacks with the most attempts ought to have the most failed completions. More specifically, the quarterbacks with the most completions ought to have the most failed completions.
12 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
Good QBs throw the ball a lot and so have a greater chance to rack up large numbers of bad passes of almost any kind (including incompletions and interceptions), so it's not really a surprise.
And I wouldn't say all of the bad percentage guys are terrible. A lot of them on ir bad situations. Lack of playmakers or protection seems to be as much of a common thread as actual bad quarterbacking. Orton, Garrard, Cutler, and Hasselback are all guys that have shown at least average or better ability under decent circumstances.
22 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
I see perhaps two guys on the suck list, maybe three if I squint hard, who I think can be above-average quarterbacks in any given year.
16 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
No Sanchize. But maybe his failures are of the spectacular interception type.
33 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
His problem for most of the year was not checking down and forcing the ball downfield, rather than checking down too much.
11 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
Can we get the numbers for who had the least failed completions? As a Packers fan, I'm really anxious to see how Aaron Rodgers' numbers turned out.
19 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
Actually, it looks like this list skews heavily toward tight ends, which is also what you expect. They run a lot of dump-off routes also. I think that WR/TE should just be a separate list.
20 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
Let's not overlook JaMarcus' high rate of successful incompletions.
30 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
It's kind of scary that not only does the Fatboy have one of the lowest completion rates in the league, but then of those completions over a third of them are essentially useless.
21 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
I honestly think this is one stat that is more meaningful as a rate for QBs and more meaningful as a counting stat for the receivers.
That list of QB rates is a whole lotta suck.
25 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
Can we get a top ten lowest QB/WR failed conversion?
It's weird miss if that's what moved you to make the list.
26 Welker only 17.9%
As I recall, Welker had 123 completions (maybe more if DPI/illegal contact against him are counted as completions when figuring failed/successful completions) which means he had at worst had a 17.9% failure rate -- which is way, way, way below the top 10 list of highest rate of failure.
28 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
Great stats, but I don't think I agree with using 45% as the benchmark on first down. You'd be happy with a 4 1/2 yard run on first down, so why would it be a failure to get to the exact same place with a pass?
29 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
I'm sure this is not material to the rankings but, (as a numbers/geek type) if the third down is followed by a fourth down non-punt I would think 60% to 75% of the required yardage would be sucessful.
31 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
only in scenarios where they were obviously playing for 4 downs does that work though... cause otherwise they are only going for it on 4th cause of the unsuccessful third.
32 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
What about failed completions just for third down? Seems like that would be a much bigger deal than throwing a 3 yard hitch on 1st down, which least gets positive yardage. Who are the main offenders on 3rd down?
34 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
Trent Edwards - #1 for percentage of failed completions.
Ryan Fitzpatrick - #4 for percentage of failed completions.
Ladies and Gentlemen, your Buffalo Bills! YEE-HAW!
Hard to believe so few people want that head coaching gig...
36 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
That is so unfair. When you are behind an offensive line that only permits a one-step drop, obviously it is hard to hit the metrics.
37 Re: Stat of the Day: Failed Completions
I wonder what the breakdown of "failed" completions is by down. A failure on 1st or 2nd down is not as terrible for team success as on 3rd/4th down, of course.
Comments
37 comments, Last at 16 Jan 2010, 1:44pm