FO Basics: Scouting
by Mike Tanier and Doug Farrar
Over the next couple weeks, we're going to run a series of articles we're calling FO Basics. We get a lot of questions about our work, but there are also a lot of readers who don't ask questions. We hope this series will help answer some questions and clarify some confusing things for even those readers who don't respond on the message boards.
Please click here for the other articles in the "FO Basics" series:
- August 30: Where our stats come from, and the difference between charting stats and play-by-play stats.
- August 31: A summary of research from our first seven years.
- September 1: Our college stats, how they differ from our NFL stats and from each other.
- September 6: The importance (and limitations) of watching games on tape.
- September 7: Regression towards the mean -- what it means, and how we use it.
* * * * * * *
Mike Tanier: Scouting and statistics go hand-in-hand. While some fans perceive a great gulf between statistical analysis and scouting, the fact is that good scouting informs good statistics, and vice versa. Everyone involved in serious player or team evaluation uses both.
Our Football Outsiders Game Charting Project contains data culled from watching every game of every season, but it's important to note (as we have a few times already in this series) that our game charters are not scouts, and we try to eliminate the subjective elements from the data they compile. Game charters track objective phenomena: formations, types of plays, and so on. There's some subjective stuff -- two people may disagree on what constitutes a "dropped pass," and figuring out when coverage should be marked "Hole in Zone" can be difficult -- but we do our best to minimize value judgments. Game Charters are encouraged to write "awesome block by Jahri Evans" at the end of the spreadsheet if they see one, but we don't tally the results and grade Evans on his awesome blocks, because that's far too subjective and arbitrary to be a "statistic."
Each of the FO writers watches dozens of games per year, and we all "scout" in the general sense that we make subjective judgments about various players. Doug Farrar scouts very intensively for his Cover-3 column, and I break down play diagrams in my Walkthrough column. Again, none of us are strictly "scouts," but we are informed, experienced observers who know what we're looking for. We've talked to players, coaches, and other writers, we've studied playbooks and coaching manuals, and we watch games in slow-mo and on freeze frame to learn as much as we can.
We all have one major limitation when scouting -- we use television tape, not game film. In game film, every play is shown from two angles: a sideline view and a behind-the-center view. You know what television tape looks like: you get a cheerleader shot, then a close-up of Eli Manning's face just until the snap, then you switch to the sideline camera, which usually doesn't show all 22 players. If Manning throws a 40-yard touchdown, you get replays from 10 angles, meaning you can really scout the play. If the play is a three-yard run, you're stuck with the one angle.
The reality is that the television angle only tells you so much. There are things you can see, things you can sort of see, and things you just cannot see. Most dangerous of all are the things you can talk yourself into seeing. Think of the Jim Mora, "You think you know, but you don't" rant. It's easy to misunderstand something you are watching and make some off-the-wall judgment about a play or player. And the more you study the game, the more aware you become of how wrong you can be.
Quarterbacks and receivers
Tanier: Doug Farrar and I are here to discuss what can and cannot be scouted from television tape, starting with the quarterbacks.
Doug Farrar: Before we get into this, I'd like to thank whoever invented the concept of keeping the shot on the quarterback's eyes until just before the snap on a disturbingly high number of plays, so that motion and snap formations are sometimes missed altogether. Nice going, you putz.
That said, I don't generally have any problem seeing what quarterbacks are doing. If anything, I'd love to see a wider angle before the quarterbacks release the ball on pass plays, because you frequently have to guess on parts of routes and route combinations when the camera doesn't catch up. I want to see a receiver coming back to the ball on the breakout bootleg. I want to catch all those crazy combos Sean Payton calls. Generally speaking, when receivers run downfield about 10 yards, they get lost from the shot, and you're left with, "Well, how did he round that off? Was that a hard cut? Did he zig when he should have zagged?" It should be fairly easy to zoom out and catch those routes. Even if the NFL doesn't want the general public to see the all-22 film, just being able to see those routes and combos would help our analysis immeasurably. You'll get that stuff on replay at times, but other times, you're just left with a guess. And we don't like to guess.
Mike, I'd be interested on your thoughts on this since the Eagles are one of the more interesting teams when it comes to crossing combos (at least, I think they are).
Tanier: The real frustration with scouting the Eagles is all of the deep routes they run. Like you said: Once the player is about 10 yards downfield, he's invisible. We have no idea what a receiver is doing unless he's targeted for a pass. If the quarterback scrambles, gets sacked, or checks down to the fullback, we don't know how good the deep coverage really was unless we get one of those "everybody was covered" montages you sometimes see after obvious coverage sacks. So you can't really decide if a dump-off was a wise decision.
It's important to point out here that no matter what film you look at, you still don't know the play call or the progression of reads. Sometimes you can guess, because some plays are so old and well known that they are similar in every NFL system (and common at the college and prep level). But even when we have 20 replay angles, you have to be careful to recognize when the speculation sets in.
Running backs and run blocking
Farrar: What are your thoughts on running backs? Are you able to see rushing plays develop the way you'd like, and are the blocking schemes shown in a way that doesn't hose up your writing?
Tanier: Running backs are easy to scout, and I think even the casual fan gets a good idea of a back's capabilities from watching game tape. Yet blocking schemes are almost impossible to evaluate using television tape.
Here's an experiment for readers to try. Tape a game during Week 1, load up an ordinary three-yard run, and watch the interior linemen. It's just a mass of bodies, right? You might be able to spot a double team. Maybe you see one guy blown backward by a defender. But mostly, it's a jumble of fat guys.
Now, you can glean some information from the jumble. You can put a frowny face next to the guy blown backwards and a smiley next to someone who shoves his defender back into the tunnel. But you have to be careful, because you don't know the assignments, and you can't see any subtleties. Take that double-team, for example. Maybe the guard was supposed to peel off and block the linebacker who made the tackle, but couldn't get off the block. He made a major mistake we don't know about. Maybe the backside tackle had a tough assignment like a reach block in which he steps inside and hooks the three-technique defender. Maybe he does a great job. It's invisible. And even if you can see it, you have to know what a reach block is and be able to tell a good one from a bad one. Soon, you push beyond the Farrar-Tanier comfort level, which is a bad place to be unless you are a coach, scout, or one of the NFL Matchup guys.
Pass blocking and pass rushing
Tanier: Pass blocking is a little easier, as is evaluating pass rushers. Do you agree?
Farrar: Well, sometimes. As you said, not knowing assignments can lead to confusion. Doug Free of the Cowboys gave me a very good example of that when he gave up a strip sack to Jared Allen soon after he replaced Flozell Adams in the second quarter of Dallas' division round loss to the Vikings. On the play, he down-blocked tackle Jimmy Kennedy in conjunction with left guard Kyle Kosier. Now, obviously, no coach in his right mind is going to draw up a line call that has a double-team on a reserve tackle while Jared Allen basically roams free to kill the quarterback. And since Free was new in the game, we can assume that he screwed up. But we don't really know.
As you intimated, blown blocks are the easiest to spot if they're executed in space and assignment issues aren't a factor. A guy sets you back and blows you up, you were simply beaten on that play. But inline pass blocking can be difficult. We sometimes blame a left tackle when the left guard wasn't in place for slide protection or the tight end failed to check the blitz before he ran his seam route.
I write about offensive line play a lot, and that involves slow-mo, as it should. I want to get to know the linemen I'm writing about. I want to understand the schemes as much as I can. Example: The term "zone blocking" is like the term "West Coast Offense," it's a catchall term for a concept with more than 31 flavors. The Jets implement a lot of run action and have powerful linemen, so the general assumption is that they're man-blocking all the time because they don't have little guys running around at the second level. But Leon Washington recently told me that 70 percent of the team's successful run plays in 2009 came from zone blocking. Alex Gibbs sat down with Bill Callahan before the season and gave him a few ideas about how to put that together. Other teams like the Falcons and Titans will run some "power zone" stuff. So I want to see whether the left tackle is a good fit for his scheme. Is the center light in the pants, and does he require guard chips against 3-4 defenses? Do the guards pull or chip to head upfield? I think you have to have a thread of schematic identity before you can judge any offensive lineman -- there are cases where a guy is asked to beef up and subsequently loses the edge that made him special (hello, Eric Steinbach). Some players don't fit their schemes and are unfairly criticized for it. Then, you have your Alex Barron and Levi Brown-types, guys whose sub-par play is scheme-transcendent.
Pass rushers are easy to watch. It's a flashy position and they're often tied to the quarterback, so no problem there. You might miss a neat stunt or loop once in a while, but the front four (or three, or five) are usually in the shot when they need to be. You can see inline power, hand movement, and how low a guy gets coming off the edge.
Farrar: Let's move to what will undoubtedly be the most controversial part of this piece -- defensive backs in general, and safeties in particular. There are those who believe that you can see what safeties are doing on TV tape. Others simply accept a much larger margin for error instead of saying that they can't see what they can't see. I would love to write about safeties in deep coverage, but I usually can't. I will write about cornerbacks once in a while, but I have to throw caveats around like crazy. Thoughts?
Tanier: Let's pretend we could see the safeties on screen on every play. As it stands, we can only see both safeties at the snap about 50 percent of the time, but let's pretend. So we see a free safety in the deep middle of the field. What's his assignment? Is it Cover-1? Cover-3? Does he have to cover a deep quarter, third, or half? Heck, he could be in man coverage or double coverage. We have no way of knowing. The safety could be "burned deep" when in fact he's racing over to a zone that wasn't his responsibility. At least with blocking assignments there's only a few yards of space to worry about, and the camera is on the player. With safeties, you are trying to guess their responsibilities, and often you're doing it based on the one or two seconds when he's clearly on the screen.
You know, sometimes in my play diagrams I just wind up throwing the safety in, on a guess. On a running play, I may not see him until he creeps onto the edge of the screen after the tackle. I only do that on plays where his position isn't really relevant to what I'm talking about: If it's an Adrian Peterson handoff, getting the safety's position wrong doesn't make much of a difference. That just shows how hard it is to scout them.
Farrar: One thing I noticed through the 2010 preseason after going back and watching something from 2009 for another project is that the networks seem to be going to a wider view on a lot of overhead shots -- maybe you see 20 players and slightly longer route developments on plays as opposed to 18 and shorter cutoffs. FOX is definitely doing this on its HD telecasts (Joe Buck mentioned it last week in a rare moment when I was actually paying attention to what he was saying before falling asleep). They're still wasting about five yards of view behind where any offensive play would develop, but maybe they can move that a bit and actually get the All-22 in there. It seems that we will get better views in HD telecasts this season, which is at least a step in the right direction.
Sometimes with safeties, I base it on team tendencies. Often, I have to guess just as you mentioned. Some teams run their safeties parallel on Cover-2 stuff, others move one or the other a little bit. When there's a wider shot on a developing play, I have to assume that the deep safety or safeties I now see rolling back started at point X when I really have no clue. And anyone who tells you that they're getting a good, even semi-accurate read on safety positioning from any kind of TV shots -- even the new stuff -- is absolutely full of it. Let's just get that out of the way right now.
I recently did a Cover-3 on Packers rookie safety Morgan Burnett, and ESPN did do a really nice job of showing full-field replays, which allowed me to detail how Burnett cheated up from two-deep on a Charles Woodson corner blitz, handed Indy's Anthony Gonzalez off to the zone, and jumped a quick Peyton Manning pass to Pierre Garcon for an interception. Again, these are steps in the right direction, but there's still a way to go.
Marks of quality scouting
Farrar: So, where are we with this? As football nerds, what do we need to impart about what we see and about what cannot be seen in a way that doesn't have "B.S." written all over it?
Tanier: There are two marks of quality that fans and readers should look for when they are judging the value of scouting information, assuming isn't coming right from the mouth of Mike Mayock or some other unassailable source.
1. Careful amateur scouts work collegially. I've been to NFL Films enough times to see Ron Jaworski work in tandem with Greg Cosell, his spotters, and a network of coaches and experts he can call upon to get his information as accurate as possible. If he does it, we have to do it. That's why we talk to coaches and players when possible, not to mention lots of other writers, and why we spend as much time studying as we do watching tape and reporting. I inherently distrust the work of somebody working out of a bunker somewhere in the world, no matter how diligent they may be. It's too easy to fool yourself into seeing things you can't, or to gloss over your own lack of real knowledge in the rush to get something to the marketplace.
2. Be wary of those who try to objectify the subjective. If a guy tells me he watched 16 Jets games and saw Nick Mangold make a bunch of great pull blocks, I will listen. If he says he saw him make 22 great pull blocks, well, counting is nice, though I would question whether the guy knows a pull block from a fold block and what "great" means. If he tells me Mangold has a Pull Block Index of 3.2 or something, I smile politely and leave. It's not that the guy isn't trying or doesn't know a lot about football, it's that he's buried too many subjective opinions in a "statistic" that then pretends to be objective to the tenth decimal. I usually take that as a hint that the guy doesn't know enough about football, scouting, or statistics, and he is either unaware of his ignorance or deliberately trying to hide it.
That's not what we do. Our objective stats are objective, our subjective opinions are not processed into loopy "ratings," and while we use one to inform the other, we are careful every time we dip the chocolate in the peanut butter.
Farrar: Another important thing to understand is that no matter who you're listening to, we all have our own biases. I couldn't possibly have more respect for Mike Mayock, but I've noticed that he favors big-armed quarterbacks to the exclusion of other types who play the position and have the tools for NFL success despite the fact that their 9-route ball can't crack an engine block. That said, I'd rather listen to him talk football than just about anybody. Cosell has been very generous with his time with me, and you're absolutely correct about the importance of interaction. I have a couple of former scouts I talk to, and other friends who could probably be scouts under the right circumstances. I really appreciate having people who know a hell of a lot more than I do who will talk to me about the game and don't mind my more ridiculous questions and observations.
More than anything, the increased opportunity to talk to coaches and players has been a godsend. If you can talk to Louis Murphy about his first NFL touchdowns and have him tell you exactly why two members of the Chargers' defensive backfield got crossed up, you realize just how much you'll never know watching the game from afar.
We're veering into another lane to a point with the player value stuff, but I'm not of the opinion that Win Shares for NFL players are possible -- or necessary. I don't want Nick Mangold's "value" reduced to one decimal point. Not just because I don't believe it can be done within the dynamics of this particular sport, but because of the extent to which such a method precludes the kind of dialogue we're talking about. And this is not what football analysis is about to me. To me, the ideal analysis of the game mixes scouting and stats in a holistic manner. "Here's what I saw, or here's what a trusted source saw. Now let's see how whether the numbers confirm or refute what we think happened". (Or, "Here's an interesting stat, I wonder what is happening with the play calling to create that stat.")
Step 1 is getting better and more comprehensive angles to see these things. Step 2 is sharpening our own knives -- reading and learning and better understanding what we see and how to explain it. Putting it all together in a way that makes sense is the hard part. There is a growing cottage industry of guys who watch film in conjunction with stat lines and post their observations, and I've seen everything from the ridiculous to the sublime. Watching X hours of film every week isn't impressive in and of itself. The whole point is to learn what you're missing and misinterpreting as quickly as possible so you're not wasting time.
49 comments, Last at 10 Jan 2011, 12:37pm
#6 by speedegg // Sep 06, 2010 - 7:47pm
Wow. Excellent article. Agreed, the with networks need to show more of the defensive backfield. Also appreciate the slight jab at the subjectivity.
Edit: good point and revised the second sentence. Follow other analysts and I don't have a problem with them being wrong based on their analysis, but they don't point out the limits of their systems and continue to make the same/similar mistakes. At that point, it's hard to figure out when they have a point and when to disregard.
This is why I love this site.
#1 by Theo // Sep 06, 2010 - 6:06pm
Hey I'm looking for some serious FF players in my fantasy football league.
I won last year (on luck, really), I wanna know what happens when I play vs some kubiak players.
Have you read the Cover3?
USA vs Europe on NFL.com .
League ID#: 59057
#2 by Vincent Verhei // Sep 06, 2010 - 6:22pm
Excellent article, gentlemen.
"You know what television tape looks like: you get a cheerleader shot, then a close-up of Eli Manning's face just until the snap, then you switch to the sideline camera, which usually doesn't show all 22 players."
Actually, it's worse than that -- quite often they will focus on Eli's face until just AFTER the ball is snapped.
"Tape a game during Week 1, load up an ordinary three-yard run, and watch the interior linemen. It's just a mass of bodies, right? You might be able to spot a double team. Maybe you see one guy blown backward by a defender. But mostly, it's a jumble of fat guys."
The best thing about the XFL (probably the only good thing about the XFL) was the use of the overhead "Madden cam" during plays, especially running plays. You could clearly see the intricacies of line play, all the little one-on-one battles and machinations. You might still have to guess about assignments, but you could usually clearly see what each guy was trying to do. It was also great for watching inside linebackers, gauging how quickly they reacted to blocking and moved to fill holes.
#21 by Dean // Sep 07, 2010 - 10:17am
Truth be told, I don't mind the cheerleader part.
#23 by Mike_Tanier // Sep 07, 2010 - 10:23am
A study a few months back in the Wall Street Journal said that game broadcasts only include about 5 seconds of cheerleader shots. I am guessing they are not counting the sponsor montages between quarters, because there always seem to be cheerleaders behind those. College games have more cheerleader shots, but then college cheerleaders are cute and genuinely enthusiastic, unlike NFL cheerleaders who (despite the fact that I have known a few and they were nice) project a disgruntled stripper quality.
#3 by Tanierfp (not verified) // Sep 06, 2010 - 6:29pm
I was horny today and whatever I did, it only made me craving for more, but now I see that's there a Tanier piece... I'm a totally different animal.
Lets just conveniently say one is just not the same as all the others.
#4 by DA Baracus (not verified) // Sep 06, 2010 - 6:41pm
Really enjoyed this article. Was that last part a shot at KC Joyner? Because if so it was an excellent shot.
#5 by Aaron Schatz // Sep 06, 2010 - 7:06pm
Please don't interpret anything in the article as taking a shot at KC Joyner, no. We're compatriots at ESPN, and while some of the FO writers take issue with a few of his stats or methods -- from this article, you can probably figure out what -- he does a lot of good work and we have a nice, collegial relationship with him.
#13 by Phoenix138 // Sep 06, 2010 - 10:11pm
Then could you at least take a shot at those blowhards over at Cold, Hard Football Facts?
#18 by Jimmy // Sep 07, 2010 - 9:41am
I couldn't agree more.
#20 by Alternator // Sep 07, 2010 - 10:15am
They'd enjoy it quite a bit.
#7 by ParaPunk // Sep 06, 2010 - 7:47pm
I think these are more like shots at the Pro Football Focus guys than Joyner. I went over to PFF for the first time in months a few days ago and noticed their new tagline was something along the lines of "no obscure formulas, just facts." Although it's a different tagline in the banner today.
#8 by DA Baracus (not verified) // Sep 06, 2010 - 8:16pm
I did not think it was a shot at Joyner, but it read like one, which is fine with me. The PFF guys, yes, those guys are special too. I just looked at their site for the first time season probably the season ended and they're charging for that stuff now? It'll probably work too.
#9 by Packer Pete (not verified) // Sep 06, 2010 - 8:21pm
Why doesn't the NFL make the 22 man tape available? I'd be plenty willing to pay a few bucks each week to download the Packer tapes and review them more closely. That's another revenue stream.
The TIVO and DVR adds a great dimension to game watching, giving another reason to stay home and watch the big screen and save the $80 ticket price. A play can be rerun numerous times while the game is going on and the viewer can catch up with the live action without missing a beat.
I like to go to one game a year and I like the endzone seats. That gives the best angle for watching defensive back alignments and movement after the snap. I enjoy trying to pick the receiver in single coverage.
Again, what's the NFL's logic in not releasing the 22 man tape to the public, even for cash?
#11 by Joseph // Sep 06, 2010 - 9:33pm
The only answer that I have for your question is that when informed fans call for the coach's/coordinator's head, they can say, "He's so stupid--he left Jared Allen unblocked and nearly got our QB killed. Why did he ever call that play with THAT protection scheme?" Or "Our DC left Jason David one-on-one with Marvin Harrison on the NATIONALLY TELEVISED SEASON OPENER--and he got burned multiple times!!! What the **** was he doing?"
#16 by Jerry // Sep 07, 2010 - 3:18am
I think it has more to do with:
(1) During the decades of using film, I'm sure everyone in the league thought of game film as nothing more than a coaching tool. Now that there are reasonable formats for public distribution, it still requires a shift in that mindset.
(2) I doubt that there's a large market for this video. Some serious fans (like FO readers) may be willing to buy their favorite team's season, but DVDs are unlikely to fly off the shelves at Best Buy.
#17 by Rich Arpin (not verified) // Sep 07, 2010 - 4:08am
I think the shift in mindset is coming. I personally only really got into football after playing madden 03 with a friend. My Dad and I watched on Sundays, but since we're Canadian the big thing is hockey here, and so not a lot of friends were into it. Madden though got me really into football. With the prohibitive cost of hockey as well as growing popularity of madden, I see more and more people being unhappy with the traditional cam of broadcasts.
I think it was said last year that the sport influenced the making of the game and after Stokely's time killing play in game one last year, that the game is now influencing the sport. It's just a matter of time till madden players are actually making some decisions in positions of influence, as most of us are in our mid twenties.
If I don't get the Madden Cam soon, they'll be blood at the NY NFL building, like a baby seal being clubbed.
#33 by Thomas_beardown // Sep 07, 2010 - 3:13pm
The NFL should leverage the internet properly. You don't have to get he discs stocked at Best Buy. You don't actually need discs at all. Have a subscription service, where subscribers can download any camera angle of any game that NFL films has.
It's basically free money.
#10 by KL (not verified) // Sep 06, 2010 - 9:28pm
I agree that the most frustrating thing about watching a game is on pass plays, right after the snap, the camera zooms in to the QB dropping back. You can fit at least 30 yards into the screen and they usually cut it down to 20, and have 5 yards empty behind the QB.
That's probably the next improvement in football coverage on TV.
#12 by email@example.com // Sep 06, 2010 - 9:53pm
When it comes to camera angles, I get the same feeling watching concert DVDs. If Jimmy Page is shredding, show me the fretboard. I don't need to see a close-up of Robert Plant bobbing his head up and down.
#14 by Aaron Schatz // Sep 06, 2010 - 10:38pm
LOL. No, not Internet lingo, I mean, I just actually did laugh out loud at that one. prs130 FTW.
#15 by Will Allen (not verified) // Sep 07, 2010 - 1:11am
Heck, it's even worse than that when it comes to watching the offensive line. Sometimes, if you don't know what the defense is doing, it's really hard to know just how difficult the blocking assignment was. Sometimes, these guys are put into situations where it just isn't possible to get a defender blocked.
#19 by Mountainhawk // Sep 07, 2010 - 9:52am
Does the NFL not provide the game film to media analysts?
#22 by Mike_Tanier // Sep 07, 2010 - 10:19am
Nope. And truth be told, most analysts wouldn't know what to do with it.
#24 by Theo // Sep 07, 2010 - 10:58am
What do coaching staffs tell you when you offer to work with them?
#25 by Pinotblogger (not verified) // Sep 07, 2010 - 12:19pm
Great article until the end. Subjectivity is a hurdle to be overcome, not a barrier to entry that analysts should be using to create a moat for their analytical fiefdoms.
Striving for win shares is an important, laudable goal. The straw man argument about decimal points sounds so much like old school scouts grousing about "the damned computers" that I had to re-check the site I was on.
It's great that you have access to experts, but the real goal should be getting access to the data. Will it ever be perfect? No. Will there always be an important place for scouting? Of course. But if the test of a good analyst is how many subjective expert opinions he has access to, there will be *much* less innovation. And that's a bad thing.
#27 by Joseph // Sep 07, 2010 - 2:14pm
"Striving for win shares is an important, laudable goal."
Agreed. I think the point that FO is trying to make is this: There is no way that even an EXPERT analyst can give an approximate grade on players with a) the camera angles from network broadcasts; and b) without knowing what player X's assignment was on the play in question. I mean sure, with a QB, maybe he's supposed to just make a clean handoff to the RB, and he did, so he did his job on that play. But really--that's not grading the QB anyway.
If I understand an NFL team's way of grading players, they can (obviously) grade their own players well--and during the offseason, they will grade the players of other teams who they might possibly sign as a free agent or trade for. It would be impossible to grade EVERY player on EVERY team. [Or is it? If anyone can DEFINITIVELY say, let's hear it.]
#28 by Thomas_beardown // Sep 07, 2010 - 2:22pm
I remember Bill Polian saying they don't give number grades to players on other teams because they don't know exactly what the other team was trying to do, and without that they can't meaningfully grade them. Instead they scout tendencies.
#30 by Mike_Tanier // Sep 07, 2010 - 2:42pm
I agree that subjectivity should be thought of as more of a hurdle than a barrier. My issue is that the hurdle, in football, is more like a 50-foot moat. It's not just that we can't always be clear what we are observing, it's that much of it is downright unobservable on TV tape.
Then, if it does become observable, it requires training, experience, and additional knowlege (like the playbooks of the teams) to fully interpret it.
After that, we may be able to create something objective and quantitative.
No one in our field is in a position to hop over that moat, but I think some pretend to do so, and that's where my remark about decimal points come in. We're so far away from being able to give a center or safety a 4.5 rating that doing so simply must be a lower priority than the things Doug suggested: increasing our knowlege, hoping/praying/petitioning for better camera coverage, and fine-tuning our objective stats to be as good as possible.
#31 by Hermsmeyer // Sep 07, 2010 - 2:45pm
I think Polian said that because each team ran different systems, that it was his opinion that comparing players without accounting for the roles they are asked to play in each system created an apples to oranges situation. Whether he has tried to tackle that problem or not he didn't say. At least that my recollection from the Sloan conference.
But just because one guy and his team (albeit a very smart guy) were unable to tease information out of the data, it doesn't mean that its therefore impossible. Especially when talented amateurs don't have access to the same data they do.
#26 by Raiderjoe // Sep 07, 2010 - 1:04pm
Good article . Red first half. Eill read resy later and then comment on it or commenton comments
#29 by panthersnbraves // Sep 07, 2010 - 2:39pm
I would LOVE to have the All-22. My son is playing at the Middle School level now, and I was astounded at how complex their playbook is already. "On this play the backside tackle should step...." Having the All-22 would provide a way to see these in a real context.
It is easy for a person to say some canard about "when there is a blitz, cover the inside man, and if you have to let someone free, make it the furthest outside." With the All-22, you could look at the Panthers and Jets game, and say, "See how the right Guard is looking for someone to block while the MLB came free on a delayed blitz?" The right Tackle has to recognize and let the Guard have the DT, and slide off and at least get a hand on the MLB. Maybe the Guard has enough time to try and shove the Tackle and DT over more to the right, and at least make the MLB have to go further around them, instead off running full-tilt straight through the hole. It's probably not going to be the greatest scenario in the world for the Offense, but maybe maybe it will keep the QB from having to launch the ball out of bounds (yet again).
#32 by Brandon (not verified) // Sep 07, 2010 - 2:59pm
Question - Why doesn't the NFL want the fans to see game film?
Heck, sell access to it on a seasonal basis.
At the very least, it would be really cool to have All-22 access at 2 angles: Behind the QB, and from the sidelines
#35 by Kit (not verified) // Sep 07, 2010 - 3:24pm
That's been suggested many times in FO precincts. Not sure if there is a good reason given that the internet allows easy (and profitable) distribution to the very narrow segment of the NFL fanbase that cares about this.
Possibly for competitive reasons - prevents teams from scouting next year's opponents this year as I believe teams only get all-22 game tape a few weeks in advance for each opponent.
Of course, the NFL does give you all-22 camera views for about twenty-five games a year via their website. But that's a hardly a substitute.
#34 by Kit (not verified) // Sep 07, 2010 - 3:18pm
Why don't we see more of Cosell, fils besides his producing roll in Matchup? He used to have a column on TSN online, now the last I saw of him, he was contributing game notes to one of the myriad Rotisserie websites.
If Kirwan, Joyner, and Mayock can find work in this area (not to mention the gruecrew on the NFL channel) why can't we see more analysis from Cosell?
#36 by dmb // Sep 07, 2010 - 3:52pm
There's also a nice cache of videos that Cosell has done for nfl.com here. (I don't have the NFL Network, so I don't know this for sure, but these videos suggest that he might also be employed by them in some other capacity.) I agree, however, that I would never be opposed to seeing his knowledge on display more frequently.
#41 by Kit (not verified) // Sep 07, 2010 - 10:14pm
Thanks dmb - I have NFLN and I don't believe any kind of Cosell coverage is mirrored there.
#37 by sfckoski // Sep 07, 2010 - 3:54pm
Doug & Mike,
In your expert opinions, what would be the first 10 books someone needs to read to gain a better understanding of what is actually happening on the field?
#38 by Vincent Verhei // Sep 07, 2010 - 4:22pm
I am neither Doug nor Mike, but I recommend John Madden's One Knee Equals Two Feet. It is 25 years old, but he breaks down the general assignments and techniques used by all 22 positions. He talks about what to look for from each player, and how to watch a play to understand what's really going on.
He wrote another book called All Madden in the mid-'90s. I haven't read it, but the Amazon description sounds promising:
"The former football coach turned TV sports commentator offers a fascinating journey inside the NFL, describing the best players at each position, football tactics, the All-Madden team, and the art of watching football."
#39 by KwameF (not verified) // Sep 07, 2010 - 4:54pm
The NFL should just show prior weeks the games on the NFLN on say Wednesday from the all 22 camera with the same audio. They could sell commercials around it and call it something like "Coaches rewind" Have studio guys cut in during key plays and break down the plays. Who wouldn't like this?
#40 by Thomas_beardown // Sep 07, 2010 - 5:54pm
16 games in a week means you would have to shorten each games run time including commercials to 90 minutes. That would literally take all 24 hours of the day. I'm not sure this is feasible.
#42 by sekrah // Sep 08, 2010 - 12:10am
Have you guys considered getting volunteers at each game to film the entire game from one of the ends of the stadium?
#43 by Jerry // Sep 08, 2010 - 3:01am
That would be a violation of every team's stadium policy. To use anything more than a cell phone (where the image is unlikely to be useful), you'd have security telling you to stop and/or confiscating your camera within a few minutes.
#45 by Eddo // Sep 08, 2010 - 11:42am
You're totally correct, Jerry.
As an aside, our Bears season tickets are actually in the last row of the north end zone at Soldier Field, which provides a great all-22 look. Additionally, next to our seats (and at the opposite end of the field), there is a professional photographer, hired by the team/league, who takes a still photo just before every snap. For the most part, he explained, his shots are used to determine which players were on the field, so playing-time bonuses can be determined.
#46 by ABCDEFGHIJ (not verified) // Sep 09, 2010 - 12:54am
**Insert Patriots joke here**
I'm a Pats fan, I can do that.
#48 by Andrew Potter // Sep 09, 2010 - 6:17pm
That was my first thought too, but I really don't want to open that can of worms again.
#44 by sekrah // Sep 08, 2010 - 3:20am
Bribe the pilot of the Goodyear blimp?
#47 by Palo20 // Sep 09, 2010 - 1:01am
I think we're starting to see a huge market for "casual" fans really wanting to understand Xs and Os. Edge definitely set the tone, but a half hour clearly didn't do those guys justice. Playbook on NFL Network is done really well right now IMO. 4 hours total throughout the week, 2 hours reviewing the previous week and 2 hours looking ahead. I can listen to Mayock and Billick all day.
Combine the shows with some other great websites that are doing an awesome job of breaking down plays and I think the "All 22" market is increasing daily. Count me in.
#49 by Patio Umbrella (not verified) // Jan 10, 2011 - 12:37pm
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