Week 10 DVOA Ratings

I think that as far as DVOA is concerned, PIT had a great second half: converting for downs at will and turning red zone trips into touchdowns.

(Note: Memory may be colored by my being a NE fan, and my terror at even a small chance of throwing the game away in the second half)

Orton's been steadily improving his whole career. He was awful his rookie year of 2005, running a don't-mess-it-up offense that didn't really give him any chances to succeed, only to not fail. In 2008, he looked like a darkhorse for the Pro Bowl until he hurt his ankle. Last year, he had a productive year. And this year, he's even better. The Broncos system definitely helps him be more productive than he would be elsewhere, but he's turned into a definite asset at QB.

Why is that so hard to believe? The only Q.B. who hasn't played well for Reid is Mike McMahon. And can't we agree that Vick has much more natural ability than A.J. Feely, late-vintage Jeff Garcia, Kevin Kolb and probably even Donovan McNabb. Five different Q.B.'s having success doesn't seem like a huge coincidence...

Yes, that's exactly what you and I and every other Bear fan has to hope for. And they do show you little glimpses of what could be at least an average offense. But I worry that we're getting fooled a little by having played three lousy defensive lines in a row (weird to say that about Minnesota, but I think it's true this year), and that there's another Giants game waiting to happen. Certainly DVOA thinks there's a major comeuppance on its way in the next 7 games (past schedule ranked #30; future schedule ranked #2 --- eek).

I think the Bears offense is a tad underrated by the the Giants and Todd Collins debacling them. We were really fortunate to run into the Panthers while Culter was out.

With 6 wins already in the bag, the playoffs should be in the cards. Looking through the schedule, the Dolphins sans the Chads, Lions, and Vikings should all be wins. So they have to upset one of the Eagles, Patriots, Jets, or Packers. That would be 10-6 and in the playoffs. The good news is that 3 of the 4 "hard" games are at home. They'll probably get dismantled by a real playoff team. However, you never know, the 07 Giants happened.

The blocking hasn't improved that much. Cutler is still getting a lot of pressure, he's just been able to move around and make plays.

Although, it's weirdly close to correct, like they slopped two different teams' graphs on top of each other.

Yeah. If San Diego got their special teams under control, their DVOA would be a close #2.

I'm not sure the Eagles roll Vick out all that much. Certainly, they don't roll him out more than they did with McNabb or Kolb. I've actually been surprised that one of the major ways they threaten run with him is not roll-outs, but snapping it to him into shotgun then having him tuck the ball and take a step towards the line, only to pull back and drop into the pocket.

I think in regards to Vick's improvement, that such an over-hyped arrogant dude was probably uncoachable - he definitely knew he had the team owner in his pocket so there was no risk of a coach cracking down on him or even demanding minor improvements. He also had a good amount of success with Pro Bowls and playoffs wins, so it's not like there was even any reason for Vick himself to think he wasn't doing everything right. Combine that with a dude who always relied on natural ability and never cultivated a work ethic and you end up with a Vick 1.0. Hard to blame the coaches too much, though, and honestly I didn't think there was any chance of Reid turning him into a real Q.B. in Philly - I thought he's a gadget guy and a good trading piece after the dust settles and his reputation is revived somewhat...

My suspicion is that the Eagles are forced to use max-protect more often because their o-line has been held together by spit and bailing wire for the entire season. This may be partially responsible for the near disappearance of Brent Celek from the Eagles' offense (notwithstanding what seem to be just plain bad hands this year).

All good points, but I'll emphasize that sitting in prison for an extended period of time may have given Vick a seriousness about his day to day life that he never had previously. I wouldn't recommend it as a standard training procedure, but it may have worked this time.

Much more damning was the Schaub trade. The ATL front office traded away the better (at the time) pure QB for the flash and sizzle that is/was Michael Vick. I am sure the jersey sales made everyone sleep well with that decision.

I think you have to narrow the middle of your bell curve there; starting to look like Lake Woebegone, where every kid is above average. The "average" field is so broad as to be relatively meaningless, no? I mean you have (overall team) Indy and Atlanta lumped in with Det and StL.

Of course this could just be my problem--if the data do not fit my notion of what they should look like, I force them into a new pattern. Probably why I was a B+ stats student in college.... I paid attention just enough to be dangerous.

Just curious - what overall DVOA % level would a team need to reach to qualify for "Elite" status? I ain't so good with the numberin'...

Could you go back through the years and generate tier lists for them?

The fact that no team is "elite" at anything makes me raise an eyebrow. Could just mean this year is an anomaly though.

Also, the Bear's weighted special team's DVOA would make them elite with 7.1%.

What?

The Titans have a slate of very winnable games. The only one that I think might be out of their reach is playing Indy at the Oil Can.

I'll take the wins too.

The weird story of the Jets this year is: what happened to their pass defense? They went from -34.2% last year (1st) to 10.6% this year (16th). That's a huge swing! It's approximately the difference between the Green Bay and Oakland passing offenses so far this year. I can't really figure it out. The pass rush is the same (ASR 6.8% last year, 6.7% last year), the defensive line is #1 in the league against the run, and Revis is back and playing at a pretty high level (although maybe not quite as good as last year). The coach and most of the players haven't changed. But it seems like they're getting carved up by mediocre QBs, and last year they were just eating those guys alive.

Here's a couple of options:
1) Scheme changes - maybe Ryan is focusing more on the run than on the pass, or other tinkering behind the scenes
2) Personnel changes - Is Cromartie much worse than Lito Sheppard?
3) Offensive gameplanning - Peyton Manning was the only one who had success against the Jets' zone blitzes last year; maybe he provided a blueprint. On a different note, QBs are not throwing to Revis as often?
4) Luck - a fingertip makes a difference

Anyone have any thoughts?

It's also pretty clear to me that the Jets have had bad luck in getting interceptions. They've held opponents to the lowest completion percentage in the league (and even lower than last year), have had an above average number of passes defensed and yet have had only 5 interceptions. The only teams with a lower interception rate are Buffalo and Houston, whose pass defenses are execrable. That's not sustainable. This type of bad luck may not be as easily modeled as fumble recovery luck so I wouldn't expect DVOA to take it into account, but I think it's reasonable to make a subjective adjustment for it. To a certain extent, it offsets the good fumble recovery luck.

Unless something dramatic happens when Rice gets back on the field, this Vkings team may be the worst performing bunch since Denny Green's last season, when they had a -100 point differential. The only reason I think this team might have a chance to stay in Minnesota is because it may be tough for them to get 750 billion in stadium subsidies anywhere else, given the economic climate.

I think they've also beaten a few teams that are generally seen as really tough opponents that DVOA isn't so blown away by, like Baltimore. DVOA is similarly unimpressed by close wins over New Orleans, Cincinnati and TB - they fall in the same general "t.v. talking heads are impressed, but DVOA isn't" category. Getting pounded by Philly in a game that wasn't even as close as the final score surely doesn't help them, but the close loss to Pittsburgh can't be hurting them so much, can it? Or maybe the missed field goals in those games disguise just how badly they got man-handled?

I've only seen their games versus Philly, Pittsburgh and Baltimore, so I was definitely dubious of all the "best team in the NFC... and maybe NFL!" talk. What makes their position even muddier is that Green Bay is the only real test left on their schedule. I think they could easily go 13-3 and end up with #1 seed without having beaten anyone of note (assuming New Orleans hovers around 7% DVOA for the rest of the year...)

From what I have seen, the Falcons have had a lot of luck very late in the game, when the Falcons' opponent blew an almost certain victory by choking (Saints kicker Garrett Hartley missed chip shot field goal at end of game; Falcons win in OT) or making a bonehead play (49ers CB Nate Clements fumbles after long interception return that should have wrapped up game; Falcons recover and drive down field for game-winning FG).

The Falcons also were lucky against the Ravens. Besides the potential OPI on Roddy White on the game-winning TD that wasn't called, they benefited from a dubious facemask penalty on Terrell Suggs earlier in the game (it should have been offsetting facemask penalties, as a Falcon was pulling on Suggs' facemask at the time). In addition, a play that hasn't gotten much media attention was the 3rd and 10 "catch" for a first down at the beginning of the game-winning drive. I can't remember who the receiver was, but I thought that the play should have been ruled incomplete, as the receiver seemed to be juggling the ball as he went out of bounds. If that play is incomplete, the Falcons' would have faced 4th and 10 deep in their own territory. We'll never know what would have happened then.

Of course, most teams with good records have had a bit of luck in close games. As detailed above, the Jets have had their fair share, especially in their games against the Broncos, Lions and Browns. The Saints were lucky against the 49ers when a muffed punt stayed in bounds, the Bears were lucky that Calvin Johnson didn't know the rule now referred to as the "Calvin Johnson rule" and that Packers WR James Jones' fumble late in the game stayed in bounds (resulting in a recovery by the Bears leading to a game-winning FG), etc.

Also, with Vick, it's probably important to keep in mind that he's only played 4 complete games - this is not a huge sample we're talking about yet. Sure, the sample we have is nothing but promising, but still - let him make it through a couple more full games before we anoint him the second coming of... Rich Gannon? I'll take it.

Late 30's Rich Gannon is also probably the closest comp to Vick in terms of skill set and physical abilities.

Yup, I immediately thought of Gannon too. In fact, Gannon's "late-career renaissance" is even more surprising considering that a) Gannon was older than Vick is now, and b) Vick actually had at least one decent year already (2002), while Gannon really didn't have any (although he wasn't awful in 1991, and he was kind of OK in 1998 aka the year before the renaissance). Let's also remember that Gannon was drafted in the 4th round with the intent of converting him to safety, while Vick was a #1 overall pick. So Vick's improvement not only has precedent, the precedent is actually even more astonishing and unforeseen.

When you make projections based on small data sets, you're going to get those kind of anomalies. It's a flaw with any metric.

That's funny, because I was just about to say the exact same thing. The performance of the secondary led them to release Al Harris, because there wasn't anybody else they wanted to cut. Not only has Williams been rock solid, shrugging off last year's 4 PI performance against Baltimore on MNF, but un-drafted rookie Sam Shields has been a big improvement over Jarrett Bush at nickel. Green Bay has a fairly brutal schedule left, including the Giants, Atlanta, New England, and a rematch with Minny, but you have to impressed with the way McCarthy has righted the ship after some tough losses and six opening game starters being placed on IR.

Just one thing I think needs to be corrected is that while Woodson started the season off pretty horrendously, he's actually been quite solid over the past 3-4 games.

I think the Packers staff must have decided they aren't going to get the calls (or non-calls) they wanted or hoped for with Woodson's traditional style of play and are having him play less press coverage and blitz more. It's seemed to work, as Woodson has not had a penalty or even a controversial non-call I can think of in about a month, while the defense as a whole has been very good.

Totally agree about Tramon, Raji (who's had to play a ridiculous number of snaps for a big man with the D-line injuries GB's had), and Peprah.

That's really giving too much credit to what we use to gauge if something is "sustainable" or not.

Advanced football stats are still very primitive. What is and is not predictive remains quite fuzzy, cf. jokes like the Lewin index still being taken seriously.

Plus, in a sport with 16-game seasons and high injury rate, a team's "true talent level" is hard to measure and probably changes quite a bit.

In my football heart of hearts, I think I mostly agree with you, but remember that in 2006 the BAM! didn't come until the second half of the Super Bowl, or about 98% of the way through the season. One of these years they're liable to stumble all the way to the Lombardi Trophy, at which point who cares if it's real or a sham?

To a deluxe apartment in the sky?

Is it the only stat that accounts for field position, down and distance, and opponent strength?

The passing, rushing, and conventional yards may only mean they get a lot of plays run against them. I don't know how they compare to other teams in that department, but the good rushing yards would indicate that teams prefer to pass against them.

Bad scoring defenses often are put in bad positions by bad offense and/or special teams. Comparing point differential for offense and defense is a pretty great way to gauge complete team quality, but can be biased for evaluating a single unit.

I'd agree that the numbers look a little suspect, but I'd rather see per play rushing and passing yardage and see how they rank than give any credence to the official NFL ranks based on total yardage.

Testaverde doesn't really belong in that class. First, the Parcells Jets was the first team he was on that the rest of the team had enough talent to give him a chance. Second, he actually sustained a period of success over some years in his late prime. Keep in mind he had a year wiped out due to injury on a team that went to the AFCCG. Deberg, et al. were backup quality guys who had fluky years.

For parallels to Vick, how about Flutie? A guy coming back from the cooler and used his unique skillset to some success.

Essentially. It deals with bye weeks in kind of an odd way, but once everyone has their bye week it's not a problem. Here's the description:

ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week

You can find it here, http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff, after the first table.

Well yeah. I was actually thinking that their offensive weapons remind me a bit of the early 2000's Rams with Holt, Bruce, Faulk and company. Same deal there where you could have Warner, Trent Green, or Marc Bulger and any of them would look fantastic. Great receiving corps do that (see Cassel, Matt). It's a shame that the best group of receivers the Eagles have had coincided with the end of the McNabb era in Philly.

I would buy this comment if McNabb had been able to put up more than 7 points in 2 games with this same receiving corps (and Celek performning at a much, much higher level) last year at the end of the season. I have always been a steadfast McNabb supporter, but everybody gets old and in those two losses to the Cowboys, McNabb was throwing balls a yards behind or at the feet of wide-open Maclin and Jackson. McNabb was the problem in Philly last year - and, let me be clear, I think that 2009 was exactly the first year where that was the case.

Also, enough with the Eagles o-line bashing. They've come together well at this point and I'm not really sure what more you could ask of a group that is missing 2 of its 5 projected starters and its best lineman. Sure, they've needed some help from TE's and McCoy, but they've left behind any claims to "awful" or worst in the league...

One other thing: I'd dispute the notion that Vick is a good fit for a bad o-line. What you want with a bad o-line is a QB who gets rid of the ball quickly, and Vick, for all the strengths he's shown, does not do that. That's a big part of why he's historically taken a lot of sacks. His career sack % is 9.6%, worse than any active player other than David Carr, and not like it's appreciably better this year (8.9%). That is decidedly not a good fit for a shaky o-line. Fortunately, the Eagles' o-line has looked much better in the past few games, so it might not be that huge of an issue.

Something that I've found more and more is that when DVOA differs, it's an interesting indictment of the team.

When the team seems to be doing better than what DVOA would predict (Bears, NFC West) that's because they've had an easy schedule or they've simply gotten a lot of non-predictive actions to go their way.

When the team seems to be doing worse than what DVOA predicts, they'll also have luck go against them - but often you'll see really bad coaching as part of it. We saw this with Green Bay, which seemed to have everything that DVOA liked but just couldn't pull it together.

Yes, if those DVOA numbers held up for the rest of the season, they'd break the record for worst total defense of the DVOA era (currently the '08 Lions at 29.2%) and shatter the record for worst pass defense (last year's Lions at 40.1%).

It's worth noting that the bottom 5 in pass defense DVOA this year would all rank among the worst of the DVOA era. It seems more likely that this is indicative of passing offenses being more effective in general across the league than that there are just coincidentally 5 epically bad pass D's. Even considering that, that 54.3% mark is astoundingly bad. Guess they miss Dunta Robinson more than they thought they would.

And would they be the most polarized team in recent history? Top 3 offense + 32nd defense seems pretty tough to pull off

It's not dumb. FO's cheapshots on the Jets have been entirely intentional.

If the Jets were lucky to beat the Broncos because of two blown field goals, then why don't their three missed field goals against the Browns make them unlucky?

Well, if you think that kickers are supposed to make the FGs that they try, then your team is lucky when the other team's kicker fails to do so (unless you think that the defense deserves credit for that). OTOH, it's definitely your own kicker's fault if he misses three kicks in one game.

So, no, it's not a mirror opposite.

It's entirely reasonable to say that the Jets were lucky when the other team's kicker missed easy FG attempts. And it's also entirely reasonable to say that the Jets were not unlucky when their own kicker shanked 3 FG attempts. They were performing badly.