Divisional Round Quick Reads
by Vince Verhei
The Baltimore Ravens lost four games out of five to close out the regular season, but they've turned things around in the playoffs with two wins in a row to reach the AFC championship game. That two-game win streak coincides with Ray Lewis' return to the Baltimore lineup, and considering that Baltimore started hot this year with Lewis on the field, it seems that the Ravens' fortunes hang simply on the presence (or absence) of their future Hall of Fame linebacker. A closer look at the numbers shows that Lewis makes a real impact on the Baltimore defense, and that he has been one of the best players in the league this postseason. However, there is a hole in his game, and that weakness could cost the Ravens dearly against New England.
Lewis played in each of Baltimore's first six games, five of them wins. However, he tore his triceps late in the Week 6 win over Dallas and missed the rest of the regular season, with fourth-year man Dannell Ellerbe taking over most of his snaps. Including the playoffs, the Ravens have gone 7-1 with Lewis on the field, but just 5-5 in the ten games he missed. That's clearly a huge dropoff, from near-perfect to perfectly average, but you can't attribute that difference entirely to Lewis. In some ways, the defense actually played better without him. With Lewis on the field, the Ravens gave up an average of 20.3 points, 399 total yards and 137 rushing yards per game. (These numbers include the two playoff wins, but they barely change if we look only at Lewis' regular-season games.) In his absence, they actually cut their total yards and rushing yards allowed, to 324 and 115 yards per game respectively, although they let opponents score 22.6 points per game.
Football Outsiders' advanced statistics tell a similar story. With Lewis, the Ravens defense has posted a DVOA (explained here) of -3.4%. Without him, it's only a little higher, 1.2%. Those numbers, though, look at a team's overall defense, which is a little unfair when discussing an inside linebacker. Lewis' primary responsibility is to stop the run, and there's no question that it's tougher to run against Baltimore when Lewis is around. With Lewis, the Ravens fare much better in yards per carry (from 4.30 without Lewis to 3.98 with him), rush defense DVOA (4.6% DVOA to -5.0%) and running back Success Rate (54 percent to 48 percent).
Even there, though, rush defense is a team effort, not a one-man game. What do Lewis' individual numbers look like? At Football Outsiders, we judge defenders in three categories: Plays (any tackle, pass defensed or intercepted, or fumble forced or recovered), Successes (any play that holds an offense to a short gain), and Defeats (any play that causes a loss of yardage, a turnover, or a stop on third or fourth down.) In his six games in the regular season, Lewis averaged 9.7 Plays, 4.3 Successes, and 0.5 Defeats per game. For comparison's sake, Carolina's Luke Kuechly led all players in Plays (10.8 per game) and Successes (6.1) this season. Lewis looks respectable in those categories, but not in Defeats, where Philadelphia's DeMeco Ryans led all inside linebackers with 1.9 per game. Way back in 1999, Lewis himself once produced 45 total Defeats (2.8 per game), the best year of any player in our records until this season, when Houston's J.J. Watt had an stunning 56. Frankly, three Defeats in six games is a pretty impotent total for a starting linebacker. And two of those came in one game, as Lewis limited Andrew Hawkins to a 6-yard gain on third-and-10 and also recorded a sack-fumble in Week 1 against Cincinnati. It seemed that Lewis was finally slowing down when he was injured.
And then the playoffs started, and Lewis was reborn. Lewis leads all defenders this postseason with 24 Plays and five Defeats, and he's second with 10 Successes. Obviously, it helps that he has played two games, but even on a per-game basis he's first in Plays and among the top ten in the other two categories.
It is remarkable that Lewis has more Defeats in two playoff games than he did in six games in the regular season. Here's how those five plays break down:
- In the first quarter against Indianapolis, he stuffed Vick Ballard for a 1-yard loss.
- In the same quarter, he tackled a scrambling Andrew Luck for a 3-yard gain on third-and-7.
- In the second quarter of that game, Luck completed a pass to Coby Fleener, and Lewis tackled Fleener for a 7-yard gain on third-and-14.
- In the third quarter of Sunday's game, Denver had a third-and-5 near midfield. They handed off to Jacob Hester, and Lewis made the tackle after a gain of 2 yards.
- Finally, Ronnie Hillman tried a run around left end in that same quarter, and Lewis met him behind the line of scrimmage for a loss of 3 yards.
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With all that said, there is one area where the Ravens have clearly played better without Lewis, and that is in pass coverage. When Lewis has played this season, opposing running backs have caught 70 percent of the passes thrown their way, and averaged 5.6 yards per target. Those numbers are a little lower than the average for running backs. In his absence, though, that catch rate fell to 62 percent, and the average gain to 3.9 yards.
That might not matter against some teams, but against the Patriots it could be a fatal flaw. To a large degree, New England is a running team (only Seattle had more carries in the regular season), and that means Lewis' performance on early downs will be crucial. However, the Patriots' running backs are also dangerous receivers. New England averaged 8.1 yards per pass when throwing to their running backs (mostly Danny Woodhead, but also Shane Vereen, Stevan Ridley, and Brandon Bolden) this year, highest of any team in the league. Vereen might have been the MVP of New England's playoff win over Houston, catching five passes in six targets for 83 yards and two touchdowns. Obviously, if the Pats split Vereen out wide against Baltimore like they did against the Texans, Lewis won't be vacating the middle to cover him. However, Lewis will be in charge of covering receivers out of the backfield, and that could be a serious problem. If Baltimore wants to win one more for Ray, they'll need to help him out on passing downs.
| Quarterbacks | |||||||||
Rk |
Player |
Team |
CP/AT |
Yds |
TD |
INT |
Total DYAR |
Pass DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
1. |
Russell Wilson | SEA | 24/36 |
385 |
2 |
1 |
265 |
237 |
28 |
| In a losing effort, Wilson breaks his own record for best total DYAR for a rookie quarterback in a single game. (With updated opponent adjustments, his Week 13 game against Chicago now stands at 214 total DYAR.) We'll start with what he did as as a rusher. His first four carries each produced first downs and a total of 45 yards. His fifth carry was a 1-yard touchdown. His last two carries were 9- and 5-yard gains on first-and-10. That's a 100 percent Success Rate on seven runs. As a passer, his first half was up-and-down, as he went just 10-of-17 for 144 yards with one very crucial sack. In four third-down dropbacks, he had one conversion (for 4 yards on third-and-1), two incompletions, and the sack. And then came the second half. On his first three drives, each of which came with a deficit of at least 13 points, Wilson went 10-of-10 for 185 yards with one sack. Nine of those completions led to first downs or touchdowns; the tenth was a 7-yard gain on first-and-10. Each of those three drives ended with a Wilson score via pass or run. His next drive was a three-and-out with three incompletions in a row, but on the next drive, needing a touchdown to take the lead in the final minute, he went 4-of-5 for 56 yards and three first downs. His final pass, an interception on a Hail Mary, is treated as an incomplete pass for DYAR/DVOA purposes. On deep balls alone, he went 8-of-13 for 195 yards and a touchdown. | |||||||||
2. |
Tom Brady | NE | 25/40 |
344 |
3 |
0 |
224 |
224 |
0 |
| Brady was a little erratic (for Tom Brady, anyway) towards his own end of the field, but when he neared midfield he was scary. Inside the New England 40-yard line, he went 12-of-22 for 113 yards with only five first downs and a sack. Beyond that point, he went 13-of-18 for 231 yards with 10 first downs, including three touchdowns. Those touchdowns came on gains of 8, 5, and 33 yards, and all came on first down. | |||||||||
3. |
Joe Flacco | BAL | 18/34 |
331 |
3 |
0 |
203 |
201 |
2 |
| Throwing to his right (where the bulk of the Torrey Smith vs. Champ Bailey action took place), Flacco went 11-of-17 for 261 yards with three touchdowns and seven other first downs, plus a 25-yard DPI. If we limit that to deep right passes, he went 4-of-7 for 185 yards with three touchdowns, plus the DPI. That's 146 DYAR on those eight plays alone. Flacco didn't throw a single pass in the red zone, mainly because he went right past it. However, the Broncos pinned him deep at the other end of the field quite often, but he was able to escape pretty easily. Inside his own 20, he went 4-of-6 for 55 yards, with every completion gaining a first down, plus that DPI. | |||||||||
4. |
Colin Kaepernick | SF | 17/31 |
263 |
2 |
1 |
150 |
87 |
63 |
| Kaepernick had four total touchdowns and a quarterback rushing record and still ranks fourth this week. That's partly because it was a REALLY good week for quarterbacks. Joe Flacco was the top-ranked quarterback of the wild card round, and he only had 129 DYAR that week against Indianapolis. Looking back over the regular season, when there are four times as many quarterbacks fighting for spots each week, 150 DYAR would usually get a quarterback in the top three. It would have been first overall in Week 2 and Week 10. Kaepernick also had an interception and a fumble, and while he was explosive, at times he struggled to keep drives going. On third downs as a passer, he went 5-of-7 for 90 yards, but only three of those plays went for first downs. He did much better running on third downs, gaining 75 yards and four first downs (including a 20-yard touchdown) on third downs. His only third-down run that did not pick up a first down gained 9 yards on third-and-10. And speaking of rushing numbers, Kaepernick finished with 14 carries for 183 yards and seven first downs, including two touchdowns. That's 63 rushing DYAR, which is the fourth-highest total for a quarterback since 1991. (We talked about this in Week 6 when Robert Griffin ran for 140 yards.) However, there's a bit of an asterisk with that. On second-and-9 in the middle of the second quarter, 49ers center Jonathan Goodwin snapped the ball early. It bounced off Kaepernick's knee, and he picked it up and scrambled for no gain. Looking back at the play, it's clear that the mistake is on Goodwin. The 49ers' receivers and linemen just stand around watching. Take that play away and Kaepernick had 78 DYAR rushing, and that would be second only to Michael Vick's 173-yard day against Minnesota in 2002 (82 DYAR). | |||||||||
5. |
Aaron Rodgers | GB | 26/39 |
257 |
2 |
1 |
128 |
133 |
-6 |
| Rodgers ranked above Colin Kaepernick in the ESPN version of Quick Reads, but that was due to a spreadsheet error that was giving him positive value (a lot of it, actually) for his interception. Further poking around revealed that the error involves "just as good as a punt" deep interceptions on third down, and about a half-dozen plays each season will need to be fixed in our data for quarterbacks when things slow down after the Super Bowl. (The error doesn't exist in the team numbers, thankfully.) Rodgers also padded his overall numbers with a meaningless fourth-quarter touchdown drive that still left Green Bay down by 14 points with a minute to go. On that drive, he went 8-of-10 for 63 yards, plus a 12-yard DPI, for a touchdown and four other first downs. That's 72 DYAR that did nothing to help Green Bay win the game. | |||||||||
6. |
Matt Ryan | ATL | 24/35 |
250 |
3 |
2 |
113 |
110 |
3 |
| Ryan had significantly more plays in Seattle's half of the field than in his own, and he played better there too. On his side of the 50, he went 10-of-14 for 94 yards with seven first downs and an interception. Across the 50, he went 14-of-21 for 156 yards and nine first downs, including three touchdowns, with another interception. | |||||||||
7. |
Peyton Manning | DEN | 28/43 |
290 |
3 |
2 |
-9 |
-9 |
0 |
| For 17 weeks, Manning was one of the best two or three quarterbacks in the NFL. In the eighteenth week, he wasn't, going 28-of-43 for 290 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions, including a pick-six. He was also sacked three times, fumbling twice, with Baltimore recovering both balls. He struggled particularly badly on third downs, going 4-of-7 for 56 yards, and while each of those completions produced a first down (including a 15-yard touchdown to Brandon Stokley), he also gave up an interception (the pick-six), two sacks and a fumble. | |||||||||
8. |
Matt Schaub | HOU | 34/51 |
343 |
2 |
1 |
-15 |
-11 |
-3 |
| Schaub spent a lot of time trying and failing to throw short passes over the middle, going 11-of-18 for 98 yards with only four first downs and one interception to that area of the field. Meanwhile, on deep passes, he went 4-of-6 for 87 yards and a touchdown. Schaub failed to convert his first six third-down plays, and didn't pick up his first conversion until Houston was down by 11 points in the third quarter. His next third-down pass afte that was intercepted. Popular belief during Houston's late-season slide was that Schaub's play-action skills made him effective when playing with a lead, but he was so deficient otherwise that he was useless in a comeback situation. So let's check the numbers. During the regular season, Schaub's DVOA when ahead in the second half was 41.2%. Out of 25 quarterbacks with at least 50 passes in that situation, only Aaron Rodgers (49.1%) was better. When behind in the second half, though, his DVOA fell to -15.6%, 24th out of 38 qualifying passers. Sorry Texans fans. The public perception in this case is pretty accurate. | |||||||||
| Five most valuable running backs | |||||||||
Rk |
Player |
Team |
Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
1. |
Shane Vereen | NE | 41 |
1 |
83 |
2 |
95 |
34 |
61 |
| In 62 runs and 13 pass targets in the regular season, Vereen had two plays for 20 yards or more, and one of those came on a defensive pass interference foul. He had three 20-yard plays against Houston, and there were no referees involved. First came a 25-yard catch in the first quarter, then a 22-yard run in the second, followed by a 33-yard catch for a touchdown in the fourth. His final numbers: Seven carries for 41 yards, one touchdown, and two other first downs, with five catches in six targets for 83 yards, two touchdowns, and one other first down. | |||||||||
2. |
Frank Gore | SF | 119 |
1 |
48 |
0 |
63 |
41 |
23 |
| Gore was stuffed just twice in 23 carries, with three runs for 10 yards or more. He finished with five first downs on the ground, including a 2-yard touchdown. The 49ers threw him two passes, both on third-and-long. One of those was a meaningless short gain, but the other turned into a 45-yarder. | |||||||||
3. |
Arian Foster | HOU | 90 |
1 |
63 |
1 |
50 |
31 |
20 |
| Foster was stuffed four times in 22 carries, with two runs of 10 yards or more. He had a touchdown and four other first downs, three of which came with 1 yard to go. Foster caught seven passes in nine targets for 63 yards, with one touchdown (also with 1 yard to go) and three gains of 10 yards or more. In the 16 regular season games, Foster caught 40 passes for 217 yards. In two playoff games, he caught 15 for 97. | |||||||||
4. |
Stevan Ridley | NE | 82 |
1 |
13 |
0 |
48 |
42 |
6 |
| Ridley was stuffed three times in 15 carries, with one touchdown and four other first downs, including two runs of 10 yards or more. He only caught one pass, but that one pass was a 13-yard gain on second-and-12. | |||||||||
5. |
Michael Turner | ATL | 98 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
40 |
40 |
0 |
| Each of Turner's 14 carries gained at least one yard, five of them gained first downs, and three of them gained at least 10 yards. While we're here, let's discuss Turner's teammate, Jacquizz Rodgers. Rodgers finished with 64 yards on only 10 carries, but 45 of those yards came on one play. Only one other time did he gain successful yardage, and on three second-down carries (with 3, 5, and 8 yards to go), he gained a total of 1 yard. | |||||||||
| Least valuable running back | |||||||||
Rk |
Player |
Team |
Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
1. |
Jacob Hester | DEN | 11 |
0 |
7 |
0 |
-21 |
-22 |
2 |
| None of Hester's eight carries gained more than 2 yards. He did pick up two first downs, but he failed on three other third- or fourth-down runs. He was also thrown two passes. One was caught for 7 yards on first-and-10, the other was incomplete on third-and-8. That's an average of 1.8 yards in ten plays, and the fact that Jacob Hester was involved in six third-down plays is probably a big reason why Denver's season has come to an end. | |||||||||
| OTHER BACKS OF LITTLE VALUE: Ronnie Hillman, DEN (22 carries for 83 yards; three catches in four targets for 20 yards); Bernard Pierce, BAL (five carries for 14 yards); Ray Rice, BAL (30 carries for 121 yards, but only four first downs; no catches in two targets). | |||||||||
| Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends | |||||||||
Rk |
Player |
Team |
Rec |
Att |
Yds |
Avg |
TD |
Total DYAR |
|
1. |
Michael Crabtree | SF | 9 |
11 |
119 |
13.2 |
2 |
69 |
|
| The 49ers threw Crabtree five passes on second and third downs. All were complete, for a total of 71 yards. Two went for touchdowns, and two others went for first downs. The fifth was a 14-yard gain on third-and-15. | |||||||||
2. |
Zach Miller | SEA | 8 |
9 |
142 |
17.8 |
1 |
64 |
|
| Miller had at least 685 yards receiving in each of his last three seasons in Oakland, but gained 629 yards, total, in two seasons after signing with Seattle in free agency. He only went over 40 yards four times in those two years, but he gained 48 yards on four catches in six targets in the wild card win over Washington, and then he exploded for eight catches and 142 yards and a touchdown in the loss to Atlanta. He had one touchdown and five other first downs on Sunday, including four plays of 20 yards or more. Is this two-game surge a random numerical fluke, or a sign that Russell Wilson is developing and learning to use all his receivers? Guess we'll have to wait until September to find out. | |||||||||
3. |
Golden Tate | SEA | 6 |
8 |
103 |
17.2 |
1 |
59 |
|
| Each of Tate's receptions produced a first down or touchdown. On deep routes, he caught four out of five balls for 88 yards. | |||||||||
4. |
Torrey Smith | BAL | 3 |
6 |
98 |
32.7 |
2 |
49 |
|
| In addition to the numbers shown above, Smith picked up a 9-yard DPI call on third-and-4. His 59- and 32-yard touchdowns were worth 55 DYAR between them. | |||||||||
5. |
James Jones | GB | 4 |
6 |
87 |
21.8 |
1 |
43 |
|
| Jones did most of his damage when the game was still close. In three first-half passes, he had one incompletion, one 44-yard gain on third-and-5, and a 20-yard touchdown. | |||||||||
| Least valuable wide receiver or tight end | |||||||||
Rk |
Player |
Team |
Rec |
Att |
Yds |
Avg |
TD |
Total DYAR |
|
1. |
Owen Daniels | HOU | 9 |
15 |
81 |
9.0 |
0 |
-27 |
|
| Remember our discussions of Matt Schaub's struggles with short middle passes? Eight of those were thrown to Daniels, and he caught five of them for 50 yards, 34 of those on two plays. Daniels only had four first downs on the day. | |||||||||
| OTHER RECEIVERS OF LITTLE VALUE: Doug Baldwin, SEA (one catch in three targets for 6 yards); Randall Cobb, GB (five catches in six targets for 24 yards with a fumble; two runs for 23 yards); Kevin Walter, HOU (two catches in two targets for 15 yards, both of them failed third-down plays, one of them fumble). | |||||||||
Comments
101 comments, Last at 18 Jan 2013, 5:37pm
#1 by Anonymous1000 (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 11:13am
"Ridley might have been the MVP of New England's playoff win over Houston, catching five passes in six targets for 83 yards and two touchdowns."
It was actually Shane Vereen.
#2 by George (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 11:18am
Think you got Ridley and Vereen confused in that last paragraph.
#3 by Will Allen // Jan 15, 2013 - 11:19am
I just posted this in the DVOA thread, but it belongs better here...
"This is why stats in a single game need to be taken with a very large grain of salt. The sample size is simply too small. Over 500-600 attempts (a season) the issues of context get balanced out to some degree, and over the 5000-6000 attempts (a career), the issues of context usually get balanced out to a very, very, large degree, although sometimes this is not true, with regard to the quality of teammates. In the sample size contained in a game? It is a really large mistake to simply look at the stats, even advanced stats, and make strong conclusions regarding the quality of play of an individual. There is no substitute for breaking down film, if you want to really know how well, or how poorly, somebody, even somebody at the position that best lends it self to statistical analysis, played in a particular game."
I haven't done the film work, but my guess is that Flacco's numbers overestimate his performance the most, because they can't take into context the hideous nature of some of the play of the Denver dbs; that last td in particular was little better than a Hail Mary completion. I think Russell Wilson's play may actually be better than his numbers. Everybody else may be about right, I'd guess, although Manning's 1st pick tends to overstate how badly he played; 3 fumbles are 3 fumbles, after all, and I don't think any came on a particularly fast sack when he couldn't prepare for contact.
#6 by c0rrections (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 11:27am
3 fumbles? He had one fumble lost and one overturned by penalty that I remember (do penalty overturned fumbles count?). What was the third?
#14 by Will Allen // Jan 15, 2013 - 12:05pm
I mistyped. It was two fumbles, which is bad enough.
#81 by CC (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 6:17pm
That first fumble shouldn't have counted. Knee was down. Refs were really bad in this game.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BAr8ONXCUAE1YXL.jpg:large
#10 by A_man (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 11:37am
Flacco takes advantage of bad matchups and defensive mistakes, so his play was overrated. Atlanta and Houston, meanwhile, never had a defensive breakdown or matchup problem. Just making sure I'm clear here.
#11 by Independent George // Jan 15, 2013 - 11:51am
Yeah, I respect Will and usually agree with him, but I'm kind of scratching my head at that one. A QB really shouldn't get penalized for taking advantage of a mismatch or broken coverage.
#13 by Will Allen // Jan 15, 2013 - 11:59am
I'm not saying anything more than I would if the stats credit Joe Webb for a long td on a busted coverage, which happened the week before. It's not a bad play, but the yardage contained in the play makes up a pretty good percenatge of the day's positive work, and it really isn't due to any thing above average, in terms of qb performance. Over the course of a season, these things even out, but within one game, such a play, positive or negative, tends to overstate things.
#15 by Will Allen // Jan 15, 2013 - 12:07pm
Like I said, I haven't done the film work, so I was just giving my impression. If you want to argue the opposite of my point, which was that sample size contained within one game does not lend itself to accurate statistical representation of a qb's quality within one game, you go right ahead.
#29 by GrandVezir // Jan 15, 2013 - 12:54pm
If you want to argue the opposite of my point, which was that sample size contained within one game does not lend itself to accurate statistical representation of a qb's quality within one game, you go right ahead.
What else besides the sample size contained within one game can represent a qb's quality within that game? These are the plays Flacco made within that game. Including the entire body of work, he did this well. The statistical anomaly of hitting three TDs on eleven deep throws does not belie the fact that Flacco did, in that game, throw those TDs, and they must be counted as part of his quality in that game.
As far as it being nothing out of the average, I'm not sure an average QB can even throw as far a Flacco did on some of those, let alone put the ball where a receiver could get it (or the DPI call), busted coverage or no.
Besides, Flacco only needs two more small-sample-size successes to win a big, expensive ring. For which every pundit will credit Ray Lewis and his intangibles. ;-)
#32 by WeaponX (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 12:58pm
Cam Newton hasn't been playing for a couple weeks now so they've moved on to other QBs to bash.
#41 by Will Allen // Jan 15, 2013 - 1:24pm
Yes, that's it. Your motive-o-meter has detected The Truth!!
#43 by Will Allen // Jan 15, 2013 - 1:26pm
Are you still a paying member of the Trent Dilfer Fan Club?
If I wasn't clear enough, I'll restate. The statistics provided in a sample size of one game do not give insight as to the context which provided the statistics. Only breaking down film can do that. Over a season, and even moreso, over a career, identifying the context which provided the stats is not very important, because with a large sample size, issues of context are evened out. This is not the case within the sample size that one game provides.
A good chunk of Flacco's positive yardage came on one play in particular, where the safety made an extraordinarily unathletic play; the analogy in baseball would be a centerfielder who, standing under a long, high, fly ball for two seconds, let the ball hit him in the forehead, after which the ball bounced into the stands, allowing the hitter to circle the bases. Now, you could, taking a superficial stats approach to such an event, simply say, "The hitter circled the bases; he had a great at-bat, and that at-bat contributed significantly to a great game", or, in contrast, could say, "The centerfielder made a bonehead play, allowed a long fly to bounce off his head into the stands, so we really shouldn't credit the hitter with circling the bases after that at bat, when evaluatng the quality of the game the hitter had". Baseball, being a less complex game, makes such statistical delineations easier, by calling the event a 4 base error, and not a homerun. Football has no such mechanism in collecting stats, even the advanced stats, and thus the stats we collect in fotball are more suspect in terms of measuring true quality of performance, especially when the sample size is small.
Hope this clears things up.
#46 by GrandVezir // Jan 15, 2013 - 1:35pm
A good chunk of Flacco's positive yardage came on ne play in particular, where the safety made an extraordinarily unathletic play; the analogy in baseball woud be a centerfielder who, standing under a long, high, fly ball for two seconds, let the ball hit him in the forehead, after which the ball bounced into the stands, allowing the hitter to circle the bases.
No.
The safety (Raheem Moore) made an extraordinarily bad decision, creeping up to cover a shorter route and letting the receiver running deepest get behind him. The analogy in baseball is the centerfielder who breaks toward the infield on a fly ball, then can't change direction and reach the fence in time to catch the ball, which was barely over the fence. Which, in baseball, is still scored as a home run, not an error.
The rest of your point (one play, low percentage, not likely repeatable) is reasonable. But Flacco still had to throw the ball over 50 yards in the air to a moving target, while moving himself. That's a pretty valuable thing for an NFL QB to do. If nothing else, film of that play should be extremely valuable to Ray Rice's rushing average.
#49 by Will Allen // Jan 15, 2013 - 1:59pm
No.
The safety also mistimed his jump by a gigantic amount. It was extremely unathletic. If you want to make the point that since he actually never touched the ball, the baseball equivalent would have credited a homerun, fine, but then we just back to the original point, which was that taking a purely statistical apprach to evaluating the quality of play within one game will frequently lead to to large missjudgements as to what the qualty of play actually was.
#82 by 0tarin // Jan 15, 2013 - 6:34pm
From the replays I've seen, it looks an awful lot like the safety misread how long the pass would hang/how far it would travel, took a bad angle, then jumped at the correct time (from the wrong place). If he had angled back and towards the sideline, rather than directly to the sideline (and thus ahead of Jones), his jump would've actually been a good play. As it was, it ended up being a desperate attempt to make up ground he'd lost due to a poor decision.
#85 by Will Allen // Jan 15, 2013 - 8:34pm
He arrived in time. He jumped too soon, and thus had descended substantially from his highest point, when the ball arrived, which resulted in him just barely missing it. If he had timed his jump in just an average fashion, he easily gets his hands on the ball. I have no doubt that the errors compounded on each other, as the poor decisions cascaded throughout an anxiety-filled sequence. In other words, it is hard to play NFL safety with both hands around your throat.
#95 by Brent // Jan 16, 2013 - 3:44pm
Lousy execution of a terrible idea?
#47 by RickD // Jan 15, 2013 - 1:37pm
I think there are two different points here.
You are saying first that single-game stats shouldn't be taken too seriously. I think most of us would agree with that.
Your second point is that a good deal of Flacco's success comes down to a play when the key defender made a remarkably boneheaded mistake. And then you relate this issue to baseball, where official scorers note errors.
But errors are not really efficiently assigned. I think I recall seeing a ball bounce of Jose Canseco's head for a home run - no error was assigned. But yeah, on the whole, the error statistics gives us a bit more accuracy to baseball stats.
How would this relate to football? I think it would be very hard to try to tweak official scoring to allow for boneheaded plays like Moore's. But the argument we could make is that on this play, at the very least, it's not really appropriate for opponent adjustments to give the Ravens a boost. They should get a boost when Torrey Smith is able to burn Champ Bailey, an elite CB who hadn't been exposed like that all season long. But the mental mistake Moore made was rare and bizarre.
I think, ultimately, these kinds of errors serve as inevitable noise to the system. Maybe I'm too lazy, or maybe I just don't know enough about advanced stats (actually, there's no 'maybe' to either of those two propositions), but I think we're better off just making the note than to try to tweak the system to account for aberrational play.
#50 by Will Allen // Jan 15, 2013 - 2:12pm
Oh, I wouldn't support trying to use a scoring system in football which modeled baseball's. Baseball's system is rife with problems as it is, as you note, and football is far more complex. It just wouldn't work. I think advanced stats which takes into account charting data, like dropped ints, have value, but regualrly assigning errors to defenders, which are then used to adjust offensive measurement, on a play by play basis? No, that just isn't feasable. Overall opponent adjustements are about the best that is possible.
My first point about the limited value of single game stats was my major one, and actually I started thinking about it a lot last week, when one play greatly masked, in the statistical sense, the true nature of Joe Webb's game against the Packers. The example of Flacco's last long completion is obviously not nearly as extreme. Unfortunately, it seems to have been interpreted by some as me being the Grand Wizard of the Anti-Flaccites.
#77 by Anonymous Jones // Jan 15, 2013 - 5:05pm
I agree completely with Will's point and am somewhat (though not entirely) surprised by the pushback on it.
Of course it is better to win any particular game than to lose it. Of course it is better to have more passing yards and passing TDs in any game than to have less.
But if one wants to draw larger conclusions about value and make more accurate predictions about the future, one should probably note the small sample size of any particular game and particularly note those plays that are outliers and how they affect the stats that are gathered and computed. Yes, certainly, over the course of a season, a 16-game starting QB probably gets one or two long TDs from broken coverages. It evens out to some extent. But in any particular game, the odds of such a play (or multiple instances of such a play) are extremely low, and the results on overall performance are outsized, to say the least.
It hardly seems shocking to evaluate that outlier 70-yard TD and come to the subjective conclusion that the play was much more about poor DB play than good QB play. To me, it certainly seems the more reasonable subjective interpretation of reality, and it diminishes what Flacco achieved in that game with respect to a subjective determination of value.
What this has to do with being anti-Flacco, I have no idea. Flacco played well. He's a decent starter in the NFL. The outlier that was mostly caused by poor defensive play tends to over-value his performance in this one game. Why Will’s description of this is offensive, again, I have no idea.
#83 by Aloysius Mephi… // Jan 15, 2013 - 6:37pm
I also don't read Will as saying anything controversial. If a stat sheet reads that a receiver was thrown three passes and caught all three of them for 50-yard touchdowns, then obviously it looks like he had a great game, and by any reasonable standard he did have a great game. But, if you want to know if that great performance predicts future great performances, you need to look at the film. If you look at the film and you see that on every one of those catches the defender slipped on the turf and fell down leaving the receiver open by 15 yards, and you also see that whenever the defender stayed on his feet the receiver was blanketed, that obviously has some impact on whether you should expect the receiver to have more big games in the future. Isn't that all that Will's saying?
#84 by Will Allen // Jan 15, 2013 - 8:24pm
Pretty much. I certainly wasn't saying that Flacco made a bad throw. It was desperation time, and he pretty much had to heave it. However, if future success is based upon the safety making a play like that, then there isn't going to be as much future success, as when the future is based upon a near-perfectly thrown ball that beats excellent coverage. Over a large enough sample size, these things tend to wash out, but one game doesn't provide a large enough sample size. It seems as if discussing qb performance gets a little sensitive sometimes.
#4 by Drozz20 (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 11:19am
Quick note: you guys meant to say Shane Vereen when disussing the Patriots running backs in the intro, not Stevan Ridley. He is a player most outside of the Patriots fan base knew much about prior to last weekends game, but accuracy demands he get his due.
#5 by Insancipitory // Jan 15, 2013 - 11:23am
While I thought Wilson played brilliantly, but I'm a little surprised to see him score *that* highly. But why shouldn't DVOA and DYAR love him? Everyone else does. There'll probably be a ballot initiative to rename Seattle Russleville, and secure a bond to build a 98 foot bronze statue of him in Elliot Bay, come November.
#9 by Karl Cuba // Jan 15, 2013 - 11:33am
Wouldn't a shorter statue be more appropriate?
#28 by claude balls (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 12:48pm
I see what you did there.
#59 by Insancipitory // Jan 15, 2013 - 3:03pm
You'll notice it's 98 feet and not 100. Besides, we may need to leave room for an asterisk shaped crown of glory (it'll hold a laser light show!) later.
I don't know if I've ever seen this town fall in love with any public figure so quickly.
#69 by SandyRiver // Jan 15, 2013 - 4:04pm
Ichiro!?
#75 by Insancipitory // Jan 15, 2013 - 4:48pm
I remember Ichiro as taking longer perhaps because of his private nature. But I never really followed the Mariners after they traded everyone I liked within the span of two years as a kid. I was thinking either Griffy or Largent, I was a little young during the start of Largent's reign, but it just feels like it took more than a season for them.
Wilson pretty much had the city eating out of his palm by week 6. Now, he couldn't be more adored if he was the cutest kitten on the internet.
#94 by SandyRiver // Jan 16, 2013 - 1:00pm
Thanks. My question mark was intentional, as I don't follow the Mariners much at all, except when they're playing the Red Sox. By the time Ichiro-mania reached the Northeast, it was already in full blossom in the PNW, so I had no idea how long the germination process had taken.
#101 by EricL // Jan 18, 2013 - 5:37pm
The "whoa, Ichiro!" moments began in the first week of the 2001 season (his ROY and MVP year, and the year the Mariners won 116 games). (April 11 in the bottom of the 8th, to be exact, in Oakland.)
There's multiple copies of the video around the net, but may as well go to MLB for it: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=16865121
Couple that with an HR-saving catch or two, beating out a couple routine grounders to short, and the incredibly fast start the team enjoyed (20-4, then 47-12), and it was pretty much a love affair from that moment on.
#87 by Podge (not verified) // Jan 16, 2013 - 7:16am
It'll actually be *in* Elliot Bay, with only the tip of Wilson's head showing above the water.
#27 by Perfundle // Jan 15, 2013 - 12:48pm
I follow Wilson because I follow Wisconsin sports, and Ken Pomeroy's stats, college basketball's equivalent of DVOA in terms of how much respect is paid to it, simply loves Wisconsin, mainly because they can blow out bad teams by a much bigger margin. For that matter, FO's own FEI Ratings love Wisconsin as well for the last two years, and again, I think it's because they can blow out bad teams by a much bigger margin.
#30 by wr (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 12:54pm
Relative to RG3, both Wilson and Luck have been totally dissed by the media.
Maybe that will change in Wilson's case now, but I kind of hope not. There's such
a thing as getting too much attention.
#40 by RickD // Jan 15, 2013 - 1:23pm
Luck has been dissed by the media?
Well that was good for a laugh.
#76 by DavidL // Jan 15, 2013 - 5:01pm
"Relative to RG3" is the key phrase in that sentence.
#60 by Duff Soviet Union // Jan 15, 2013 - 3:05pm
What "media" are you talking about? Who's been "dissing" Luck?
#7 by Jeremy (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 11:28am
"Those touchdowns came on gains of 8, 5, and 3 yards, and all came on first down."
Uh...I seem to recall a long TD bomb to Shane Vereen.
Did you guys just block out Shane Vereen from your memory?
#16 by PatsFan // Jan 15, 2013 - 12:08pm
Yeah. The TD to Vereen was that 33yd over-the-shoulder job right after the Texans turned it over on downs.
#8 by bananarama (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 11:32am
Ridley might have been the MVP of New England's playoff win over Houston, catching five passes in six targets for 83 yards and two touchdowns.
I believe you mean Vereen here?
#24 by Kal // Jan 15, 2013 - 12:41pm
Well, Ridley might have. It's possible. He wasn't, but he might have been. It's an infinite universe. Anything's possible.
#12 by 3 Monkeys (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 11:58am
BITTER BRONCO FAN.....
FLACCO DYAR 100... DENVER DEFENSE -100
The Pick Six against Manning was an uncalled PI.
The two PI calls Flacco got were questionable. It was good defense by Carter against an uncatchable ball; 2nd against Bailey was ticky-tack, especially when considering the no-call on the Pick Six.
Flacco was also the benefactor the of a Bill Buckner level error by Rahim Moore.
CAN'T PUT BAILEY ON AN ISLAND ANYMORE
Smith and Flacco made Bailey look old. Bailey might not need to go to Safety just yet, but his days of being on an island against a teams best receiver are over.
FOX PLAYED THE END OF THE GAME LIKE HIS QB WAS NAMED DELHOMME OR TEBOW
Taking a knee with 31 seconds and two timeouts was awful.... Could they have at least tried a safe TE pass or screen?
#68 by rustyspatula (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 3:40pm
I felt like neither Moore nor Mike Adams were playing well on Saturday, especially compared to some of the regular season games I saw. Maybe Baltimore managed to scheme them out of the picture, but whatever coverage the Denver secondary was in kept them from helping effectively over the top on a number of big pass plays, and Adams didn't do anything against the run, either.
#17 by Rick S (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 12:11pm
In baseball, runs and hits that result from defensive errors are accounted for differently statistically. Denver's safety play at the end would be a the ultimate definition of an error.
#20 by Will Allen // Jan 15, 2013 - 12:21pm
Yeah, baseball just has a much more sophisticated statistical approach, in terms of measuring games, seasons, and careers, in large part due the game being less complex, and easier to measure. Even so, baseball stats usage semtimes will fall into the same trap; hitters will be said to be in a slump, even though they hit the ball on the nose 10 times in their last 30 plate appearances, and had two base on balls on top of it, because they were very unlucky, and had those 10 balls go right at someone.
#61 by Duff Soviet Union // Jan 15, 2013 - 3:07pm
The problem with baseball's scoring system is that they give out "errors" but don't have a corresponding "good plays".
#72 by Revenge of the NURBS (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 4:22pm
Good point. They could use chess notation to denote when someone made a particularly good defensive play. Something like 6!-4-3 for a great snag by the shortstop leading to a double play.
#73 by Perfundle // Jan 15, 2013 - 4:38pm
I'd love to see that notation get added to that 3-2-6-1-5-3-4-6-8 double play from 2011.
#18 by Sgood (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 12:17pm
I've watched all the Ravens games this year, and I do not recall any plays where Ray Lewis was singled up in man coverage on a running back running a pattern in the flat or a wheel route. I certainly recall him both making and missing tackles on RB patterns that attacked MLB zone coverage. In the HOU-NE game, Vereen made his plays in the passing game when going out to the flat when lined up next to Brady, or when split out wide as a receiver.
Ray Lewis is not fast or agile enough to keep up with anyone in the passing game, but the Baltimore defensive scheme has managed to account for that deficiency to some degree by rarely putting him in man coverage.
#19 by Rick S (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 12:17pm
Don't see how Brady was number one. Wilson's sack at the end of the first half was essentially a red zone turnover.
#42 by RickD // Jan 15, 2013 - 1:25pm
I think you forgot a "not" there.
#53 by wiesengrund // Jan 15, 2013 - 2:21pm
Wilson's sack at the end of the first half was essentially a red zone turnover.
The DVOA comment thread also skipped over that question. Wonder how the numbers would look like.
#21 by steveNC (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 12:26pm
>Ridley might have been the MVP of New England's playoff win over Houston, catching five passes in six targets for 83 yards and two touchdowns.
Or it might have been Vereen.
#22 by coremill // Jan 15, 2013 - 12:27pm
Somebody mentioned this in the DVOA thread, but where are the baselines for QB running DVOA coming from, RBs or QBs? Are we supposed to interpret Kaepernick's performance such that a replacement QB would have had 120 yards rushing in that game?
#26 by Kal // Jan 15, 2013 - 12:45pm
Yeah, Kaep's runs being worth only 63 DYAR seems so ludicrous on its face. 181 rushing yards and what, 2 TDs? How is that so much less valuable (4 times less) than Wilson's total DYAR by itself?
I think Wilson definitely outplayed Kaep, but the rushing yard numbers just seem so very wrong. As a descriptive value, they're horrible. They may be better for prediction.
#88 by Podge (not verified) // Jan 16, 2013 - 7:36am
As noted in the comments, it does include a fumble that wasn't really his fault, which tips it up to 78 DYAR.
Even at 63 DYAR, it's a damn good week. These are the only games I can find in Quick Reads that have a higher rushing value:
Doug Martin in Week 9 V Oakland (265 yards and 4 TDs) - 94 DYAR
Alfred Morris in Week 17 V Dallas (200 yards, 3 TDs) - 78 DYAR
Marshawn Lynch in Week 14 V Arizona (128 yards and 3TDs on 11 carries) - 77 DYAR
Adrian Peterson in Week 9 V Seattle (182 yards and 2 TDs) - 71 DYAR
Steven Ridley in Week 5 V Denver* (151 yards and 1 TD) - 68 DYAR
CJ Spiller in Week 1 V Jets* (169 yards and 1 TD) - 66 DYAR
So from a purely rushing perspective, Kaepernick's rushing performance was either the 7th or joint 2nd best this season. I think comparing rushing DYAR with passing DYAR is a bit apples-to-oranges though. Even the very best rushing performance of the season would only rank 7th this week if compared against passing DYAR.
*I imagine these two have lower opponent adjustments.
#38 by Nevic (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 1:20pm
You might be on to something with a repalcement QB getting 120 rushing yards that game. Looking at some of the holes Kaepernick ran through I think I could've approached 120 yards rushing that night with all that open space and defenders chasing the RB while I still have the ball...
#23 by BigWoody (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 12:34pm
Tony Gonzalez made some sweet plays in the Atl-Sea game. What was his DYAR?
#89 by Podge (not verified) // Jan 16, 2013 - 7:37am
I don't think DYAR would give him the bonus that he deserves for the quality of some of the catches!
#96 by LionInAZ // Jan 16, 2013 - 4:26pm
Though he probably got credit for a DPI call that actually should have been an OPI against him.
#97 by Insancipitory // Jan 16, 2013 - 7:30pm
On the one hand I agree with you, on the other HoF guys are going to get calls like that so it's properly accounted for as far as the stats are concerned. If "Bam-bam" gets a HoF resume, he'll get calls like that on the back end of his career too.
#100 by Vincent Verhei // Jan 17, 2013 - 2:57pm
Tony Gonzalez made some sweet plays in the Atl-Sea game. What was his DYAR?
Six catches, seven targets, 51 yards, 23 DYAR. His average target came with only 6 yards to go for a first down, which raises his bar for success awfully high.
#25 by Aaron Schatz // Jan 15, 2013 - 12:43pm
I was going to fix the Vereen/Ridley mistake, but I've decided to leave it instead to see just how many people will correct the same mistake over and over without reading any of the other reader comments.
#31 by wr (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 12:57pm
Hopefully, you'll present the results of that analysis. :)
#34 by nat // Jan 15, 2013 - 1:00pm
I think you mean the Ridley/Vereen mistake.
#70 by Kulko // Jan 15, 2013 - 4:13pm
good one
#74 by tballgame (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 4:45pm
I read somewhere that Ridley picked up 83 receiving yards and 2 receiving touchdowns. Why isn't he the most valuable running back?
Also, why is it no one ever points out the split infinitives in the comment threads? I think I deserve a full refund for these free, imperfect columns.
#78 by dbostedo // Jan 15, 2013 - 5:45pm
Because if you choose to carefully read this link, you'll find that you shouldn't be afraid to frequently split infintives. Sure, it might seem odd to always split them; But there's no good reason that joined infinitives are necessary to correctly write a sentence.
http://grammar.about.com/od/grammarfaq/f/What-Is-A-Split-Infinitive-And-Whats-Wrong-With-It.htm
#33 by Anonymouse (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 12:59pm
Hey, has anyone else noticed that they said "Ridley" when they meant "Vereen"? Someone should let them know...
#37 by Purds // Jan 15, 2013 - 1:18pm
I just noticed that. It would be nice if they proof-read these articles.
#35 by Sergio // Jan 15, 2013 - 1:14pm
Kaepernick had 63 DYAR? Is the replacement baseline a RB?
-- Go Phins!
#45 by Will Allen // Jan 15, 2013 - 1:30pm
Byron Leftwich wants The Truth!
#36 by MattA1 (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 1:17pm
"On second-and-9 in the middle of the second quarter, 49ers center Jonathan Goodwin snapped the ball early. It bounced off Kaepernick's knee, and he picked it up and scrambled for no gain. Looking back at the play, it's clear that the mistake is on Goodwin. The 49ers' receivers and linemen just stand around watching. Take that play away and Kaepernick had 78 DYAR rushing,"
Does that mean then that against the Green Bay defense we would expect a replacement QB to pick up 15 more YAR then Kaepernick did on that play?
#52 by Eddo // Jan 15, 2013 - 2:16pm
Remember, the Y in YAR is not strictly raw yards.
For one, the fumble is credited to Kaepernick on that play, since that's how league scoring works. Lost fumbles are worth roughly -45 yards, and aborted snaps, per Chase Stuart's research, are lost roughly 25% of the time. So the penalty is worth about -11 yards.
Since the play itself was worth -15 YAR, we can estimate that a replacement QB would have run for about 4 yards on a scramble, which seems about right.
#57 by bravehoptoad // Jan 15, 2013 - 2:58pm
Aborted snaps are lost 25% of the time, even out of the shotgun formation? I'd think the farther back the QB was, the better the recovery % for the offense.
#58 by EricL // Jan 15, 2013 - 3:03pm
Assuming two healthy knees.
#65 by Perfundle // Jan 15, 2013 - 3:19pm
Sanchez versus the Titans was the most memorable (read: hilarious) example of one this year.
#90 by Podge (not verified) // Jan 16, 2013 - 7:39am
I think DYAR just knows a QB who is unable to take a snap doesn't help his team. It doesn't know that the snap, not the QB, was the problem.
#91 by Karl Cuba // Jan 16, 2013 - 8:36am
Kaep's been having trouble with snaps pretty much all year, that is one major blight on him though probably correctable with another offseason.
#92 by PatsFan // Jan 16, 2013 - 10:12am
Yeah. How many snaps did he drop vs. NE?
#93 by SandyRiver // Jan 16, 2013 - 12:58pm
Something like 4, all recovered by SF.
#39 by Anonymous Coward (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 1:23pm
Sorry but could you elaborate on how a run for no gain on second and nine cost Kaepernick -15 DYAR? That doesn't make any sense at all
#44 by RickD // Jan 15, 2013 - 1:27pm
A run for zero yardage is a fail, right? Is your point that -15 seems a bit much?
#51 by Kal // Jan 15, 2013 - 2:15pm
It seems like a lot. I guess I understand why - his recovering the fumble isn't predictive, so he gets penalized for the fumble but not for the recovery. And then he gets penalized more for it not being a successful play.
Again, problems with it being descriptive vs. predictive. Predictively it's probably a bad play. Descriptively it's no worse than throwing an incomplete pass.
#64 by Revenge of the NURBS (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 3:17pm
"Predictively it's probably a bad play. Descriptively it's no worse than throwing an incomplete pass."
Don't go down that road. I tried it a few weeks ago and was roundly rebuked.
#48 by coremill // Jan 15, 2013 - 1:47pm
I think DYAR is penalizing Kaepernick for the fumble, and then penalizing him again slightly for the zero yard run after the fumble.
#54 by coboney // Jan 15, 2013 - 2:22pm
So I noticed that there does seem to be a mix up on the patriots running backs.....
*wink*
#55 by young curmudgeon // Jan 15, 2013 - 2:26pm
OK, I think I've gotten it straight now: Ridley Scott is the actor/dancer who appeared in All That Jazz, Funny Lady, and lots of TV shows like Zoobilee Zoo and Webster. Ben Vereen is the guy who directed Alien and Blade Runner. Right?
#63 by Hurt Bones // Jan 15, 2013 - 3:11pm
Wow Ridley Scott is really Chicken George?
#56 by Vincent Verhei // Jan 15, 2013 - 2:49pm
Think you got Ridley and Vereen confused in that last paragraph.
As usual, nothing generates feedback on the Internet like typos and spelling errors.
"Those touchdowns came on gains of 8, 5, and 3 yards, and all came on first down."
Uh...I seem to recall a long TD bomb to Shane Vereen.
Did you guys just block out Shane Vereen from your memory?
Case in point. We did fix this one, but I stand by Aaron's decision to leave the Ridley-Vereen swap as is.
Don't see how Brady was [not] number one. Wilson's sack at the end of the first half was essentially a red zone turnover.
The DVOA comment thread also skipped over that question. Wonder how the numbers would look like.
That play was worth -15 DYAR as is. Typing “TO” in the turnover column on the spreadsheet changes it to -63, which would drop Wilson behind Brady in this table.
With that said, since I went through the trouble of calculatin this, let me point out that when trailing in the second half this season, the average quarterback completed 60 percent of his passes for 7.2 yards per attempt, with almost as many interceptions (199) as touchdowns (254). Trailing in the second half against Atlanta, Wilson completed 74 percent of his passes for 12.7 yards per pass with two touchowns and no interceptions (discounting the Hail Mary). Against the 11th-ranked pass defense. That really makes up for his first-half sack.
A few things on Kaepernick: The average quarterback run this season gained 6.06 yards, so the baseline for running quarterbacks is awfully high. As noted, he's also penalized for a fumble that wasn't really his fault. Also, six of his runs were actually failed plays, although fumble aside he's not dinged more than 1 or 2 DYAR for any one of them.
#62 by Will Allen // Jan 15, 2013 - 3:08pm
That's what really impressed me about Wilson. Until you get to garbage time, it's really hard to play well when trailing by a lot, in a loud road environment, especially in the playoffs, when opponents have a greater tendency to not take the foot off the pedal, and none of the opponents stink. There was no garbage time yardage for Wilson, and the stats Vince posted for qbs with 2nd half deficits includes garbage time numbers. I think he was better than his numbers show.
#66 by Perfundle // Jan 15, 2013 - 3:28pm
"That play was worth -15 DYAR as is. Typing “TO” in the turnover column on the spreadsheet changes it to -63, which would drop Wilson behind Brady in this table. "
As long as you're consistent with the designation, it should be fine. Brady basically had the exact same thing happen to him at the end of the first half in week 6, against the Seahawks, no less, when he had that intentional grounding that prevent them from even kicking a field goal.
Of course, that game was practically a mirror-image of this game, with Wilson leading touchdown drives in the fourth quarter (with a three-and-out between the final two) to give Seattle a one-point lead. The biggest difference was that Brady couldn't drive the Patriots close enough for a field goal, while Ryan did.
#67 by coremill // Jan 15, 2013 - 3:32pm
From a DYAR perspective, why do we care about the average QB YPC? There should be a a substantial selection bias in that number, since the very good running QBs will run more often and drag up the average. And the distribution of QB running ability may have a big skew, with five or six guys who are really good runners and the rest who all suck. What matters is the replacement QB ypc. This will vary a lot though -- Joe Webb and Chad Henne are both roughly replacement QBs, but with very different rushing abilities.
#71 by Tino (not verified) // Jan 15, 2013 - 4:21pm
Wilson's sack at the end of the first half was essentially a red zone turnover.
People keep blaming Wilson for the sack but the fact is the pressure came almost immediately, giving him no time to escape the pocket or even scan the field. His only option would have been to blindly throw the ball to an area, and pray that it doesn't get intercepted or called for intentional grounding (which would've entailed clock run off). In the split second he had to decide, his instinct is (rightly) to secure the ball and go down. I totally attribute the sack to the failure of the right guard (Sweezy).
#79 by Aaron Schatz // Jan 15, 2013 - 5:56pm
By the way, I figure the Vereen/Ridley joke is stale by now, so I'll go actually fix that.
#80 by Hurt Bones // Jan 15, 2013 - 6:02pm
If only fixing stale coaches was that easy. While watching Vereen during the game, I kept wondering who is Jeff Goldblum– Brady, Hernandez or Welker.
#86 by Jerry // Jan 15, 2013 - 8:57pm
Is that really a Tenspeed and Brownshoe reference?
#98 by foxlies (not verified) // Jan 17, 2013 - 9:33am
Whats missing from the conversation is good old fashioned horrible defensive coaching.I predicted the packers with coach Capers would use Charles Woodson close to the line in order to keep Kaepernicks running in check, maybe even spying him. Two plays in particular stand out;one with Erik Walden and one with Clay Matthews.On both plays Kaepernik was one on one on the edge.Both l.b.s looked like theyd never seen a mobile q.b. before.Falcons head coach/ defensive genius, mike smith looked similarly unprepared.With Matthews + Walden i felt sorry for the players.They were trapped;contain to the inside or force to the edge; no help was in place.
Apparently Gil Scott Herron was wrong:The revolution was televised.The leftovers from racism, you know the good ole boy types are now as transparent as the 'science' of intelligent design.What was proven by the spectacular games by wilson and Kaepernick,as well as the successs of RG3 this year is that the running q.b. is here to stay.Add in Tim Tebow,[although all he did was win games]+Cam Newton and youll find the emperors wardrobe is beset by the slight disadvantage that it doesnt exist.For goodness sakes,both the packers and the falcons played man,often even press coverage. It was like hara-kiri without the honor part.
The inevitable result of this will be an influx of college coaches into the n.f.l.When coach David Lee was brought into the dolphins[from arkansas] a few years ago and temporarily saved Tony Sparanos job,somebody must have missed the memo.The Doug Fluties and Warren moons wont be thrown into exile for years any more.Its not just a size prejudice,its not just racisms legacy;its the right wing echo chamber which results in the killing of critical thinking
I plan to write on this topic on my site nflalternative so if this looks like a naked plug[a plug dressed like an emperor] please remove it. But I must say I was shocked at the defensive incompetence of the packers and falcons defensive game planning and tactics.After undeservedly surviving near extinction in what should have been a blow out win, I cant wait to see what the Falcons game plan will be versus Kaepernik.
#99 by foxlies (not verified) // Jan 17, 2013 - 9:35am
Whats missing from the conversation is good old fashioned horrible defensive coaching.I predicted the packers with coach Capers would use Charles Woodson close to the line in order to keep Kaepernicks running in check, maybe even spying him. Two plays in particular stand out;one with Erik Walden and one with Clay Matthews.On both plays Kaepernik was one on one on the edge.Both l.b.s looked like theyd never seen a mobile q.b. before.Falcons head coach/ defensive genius, mike smith looked similarly unprepared.With Matthews + Walden i felt sorry for the players.They were trapped;contain to the inside or force to the edge; no help was in place.
Apparently Gil Scott Herron was wrong:The revolution was televised.The leftovers from racism, you know the good ole boy types are now as transparent as the 'science' of intelligent design.What was proven by the spectacular games by wilson and Kaepernick,as well as the successs of RG3 this year is that the running q.b. is here to stay.Add in Tim Tebow,[although all he did was win games]+Cam Newton and youll find the emperors wardrobe is beset by the slight disadvantage that it doesnt exist.For goodness sakes,both the packers and the falcons played man,often even press coverage. It was like hara-kiri without the honor part.
The inevitable result of this will be an influx of college coaches into the n.f.l.When coach David Lee was brought into the dolphins[from arkansas] a few years ago and temporarily saved Tony Sparanos job,somebody must have missed the memo.The Doug Fluties and Warren moons wont be thrown into exile for years any more.Its not just a size prejudice,its not just racisms legacy;its the right wing echo chamber which results in the killing of critical thinking
I plan to write on this topic on my site nflalternative so if this looks like a naked plug[a plug dressed like an emperor] please remove it. But I must say I was shocked at the defensive incompetence of the packers and falcons defensive game planning and tactics.After undeservedly surviving near extinction in what should have been a blow out win, I cant wait to see what the Falcons game plan will be versus Kaepernik.