Week 6 Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei

The NFL's individual star of Week 6 shined long before Sunday's games even kicked off. Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton stole the league's spotlight on Thursday night. And in fact, he did most of his damage early on Thursday, finishing the first quarter with 147 receiving yards against Houston. He wasn't a huge part of the Colts' game plan after that -- he was targeted five times in the first quarter, but only four times the rest of the game -- but his big plays early in the game did enough damage to alter the Texans' entire strategy and open opportunities for himself and his teammates.

Hilton's first target came with 12:20 to go in the opening quarter on Indianapolis' first drive. The Colts had a third-and-15 at midfield and came out in a three-wide set with two wideouts to the right, a tight end on the left, and Hilton split wide to that side, facing off with Johnathan Joseph (at the bottom of the following picture). Houston responded with dime personnel in a basic nickel look, moving safety D.J. Swearinger into essentially a middle linebacker position. At first they showed two safeties high in a two-deep look, but just before the ball was snapped Kendrick Lewis walked up to cover the tight end. The Texans then big-blitzed with six pass rushers, leaving Lewis and the cornerbacks in man coverage, with Danieal Manning a single-high safety in the middle of the field.

Indianapolis went max protect, with the three wideouts running routes while the running back and tight end stay in to block. With the tight end blocking, Lewis had nobody to cover, and he ended up twiddling his thumbs in a short zone. Hilton ran a simple go route down the sideline, getting a step outside Joseph. Manning had no prayer of reaching this route from the middle of the field. Joseph's coverage wasn't bad, but Andrew Luck made an incredible pass over Hilton's outside shoulder, and Joseph never had a chance to make a play on the ball.

The result: a 40-yard gain that set Indianapolis up with a first-and-goal at the 10. The drive died there and Adam Vinatieri kicked a field goal to put Indianapolis ahead 3-0, but the Hilton and the Colts were just getting started. Indianapolis followed with a surprise onside kick and recovered the ball, giving them a first down at their own 46, and they went right back to Hilton. They came out in a triple-tight end set, with two tight ends and Hilton to the offense's right side. Hilton ran a seam route down the field as Dwayne Allen (83) cut to the outside 15 yards deep. Joseph (24) and Swearinger (36) both moved outside to cover Allen, leaving Hilton running unmolested towards the end zone. Luck's pass was slightly overthrown and Hilton had to dive for it, which gave Kareem Jackson a chance to come over from the left side of the field and touch him down. (The play was originally ruled a touchdown, but replay confirmed that Jackson touched Hilton down at the 5.) Trent Richardson ran the ball in for a touchdown on the next play.

At this point the game was less than five minutes old, and Hilton had already scorched the Texans' secondary for two catches at least 38 yards downfield. This seemed to put the fear of God (or at least the fear of T.Y., but that doesn't sound anywhere near as cool) into Houston. Hilton's next catch, a 14-yard gain on first-and-10 at the 31, set up a touchdown pass from Luck to Ahmad Bradshaw. It was a simple pitch-and-catch against zone coverage, with a secondary so scared of giving up another big play they surrendered an easy first down in scoring range. Note that there were no receivers running towards the end zone here; Hilton was the deepest target on the play.

On their next drive, the Colts had a third-and-9 at their own 33. Houston dialed up another big blitz, sending seven rushers at Luck, but the Colts went max protect and Luck again had time to throw. Hilton lined up in the slot on the right side on this play, and burned Kareem Jackson (25) badly on a deep crossing route. The free safety (Lewis) took a bad angle on the play and ended up chasing Hilton, who had seemingly all of Texas in front of him. He gained 26 yards after the catch on this play, 37 yards in all.

Hilton's fifth reception came a few plays later, and it was really a great play by Luck more than anything Hilton did. The Colts used three tight ends again, and it looked like Luck wanted to hit Coby Fleener in the corner of the end zone, but the Texans had that route covered. John Simon, freshly signed off the Ravens' practice squad, pressured Luck from his left, but Luck danced away and scrambled to his right. Hilton simply settled into a zone and gave Luck an easy target. This was Hilton's only reception of the day that did not pick up a first down, but it was still a successful play.

Luck would get his touchdown to Fleener a few plays later on the last play of the first quarter. By that point, Indianapolis had scored a field goal and three touchdowns in four drives, with Hilton himself beating the Texans in total yardage (147 to 2) and first downs (four to zero). Hilton had just one target in the second quarter, a 9-yard gain on second-and-7. He lined up in the slot, across from Whitney Mercilus, a sure sign the Texans were playing zone coverage. Hilton easily crossed over into their vulnerable underbelly for a first down. Allen, crossing across the formation underneath Hilton and in the opposite direction, reached back and nearly tipped the ball. He came much closer to breaking up the pass than any of the Texans did.

Hilton's early home runs apparently flustered the Texans so badly that they feared a deep route run by anyone with a horseshoe on his helmet. In the third quarter, the Colts had a first-and-10 at their own 46, now protecting a narrow 27-21 lead after a furious Houston rally. Hilton and Reggie Wayne both lined up on the right side of the field, with Hilton running a deep out from the slot while Wayne ran a go route from the outside. Now, Reggie Wayne is a Pro Bowler, a Super Bowl champion, and a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate, but he's also 36 years old, with three touchdowns in the past year and a half. Why is it, then, that everyone in deep steel blue covered Wayne, while nobody covered Hilton, the guy who had been killing the Texans all night long? The following screencap was taken at the moment Hilton caught the ball. None of the deeper defenders had even turned around by then. If Hilton's momentum hadn't carried him out of bounds, he might have run for big yardage. As it was, he had 18 yards and a first down.

Hilton had spent all night producing big plays that allowed his teammates to score, but a few plays later he was finally able to score himself. The Colts had a second-and-7 at the Houston 33, and again they lined up with two receivers right, Wayne out wide and Hilton in the slot. Hilton ran a deep crossing route. It's hard to tell if the Texans were going with Cover-2 or Quarters coverage, but either way the play call had two safeties playing deep zone who should have been in position to make a play on the ball. "Should have," I say. The problems for Houston began before the snap. Swearinger, the safety to Hilton's side of the field, was in position, but Lewis, the other safety, seemed confused, and stepped up away from the middle of the field to confer with Jackson. They were still chatting when the ball was snapped, and Lewis was slow to drop back into his zone. Swearinger, covering the deep right zone, allowed Hilton the middle of the field, then broke on the ball. This is not a terrible play on his part -- his assignment was to prevent a seam or corner route more than anything else -- but it is not a great one, either. Meanwhile, Hilton had already gotten behind Lewis, who struggled to catch up even as Hilton zoomed right through the area that Lewis should have been guarding. Worse, Lewis stumbled just before the ball arrives. The ball was slightly underthrown and Hilton had to slow down, which gave Swearinger a chance to make a play, but Hilton was able to hold onto the ball throughout the collision. Six points, Indy.

Hilton's final catch was a 16-yard gain on third-and-9. This time the Colts lined up with Hilton wide right and Wayne in the slot to that side. The Texans appeared to be running Man-2, with two safeties deep and man coverage across the field. Hilton ran a deep cross, pushing Johnathan Joseph near the sideline, then cutting back to the middle of the field. Joseph's coverage, frankly was excellent, but Luck's throw was even better, fitting into a very narrow window. The catch kept Indianapolis' drive alive as they protected a 12-point lead with more than 12 minutes to go. Three plays later J.J. Watt would return a fumble for a touchdown, but it was too little, too late, and the Colts were able to preserve the win.

So after all that, what have we learned?

• T.Y. Hilton is a very versatile receiver. In this game alone he demonstrated the speed to get open deep, the quickness to gain yards after the catch, the savvy to beat either man or zone coverage, and sure hands capable of catching the ball even while being dragged to the earth.
• Andrew Luck is a really, really good quarterback, and Hilton is lucky to play with him. (OK, this wasn't really anything new we learned, but it's still an important takeaway.)
• The Texans have a lot of defensive problems. Go back and look at those nine catches again. You've got guys falling down, blown coverages galore, and a team-wide tendency to forget about Hilton even when he's the only wide receiver on the field.
• Those problems, however, do not necessarily include Johnathan Joseph's coverage ability. His charting numbers for this game are going to be ugly, with a couple of big plays allowed. On neither of those plays, though, was he terribly out of position. Unfortunately for Joseph, sometimes a great throw beats great coverage.

When the smoke cleared, Hilton finished with nine catches in nine targets for 223 yards and a touchdown, with seven other first downs, including conversions on third-and-9 (twice) and third-and-15. That all works out to 122 DYAR, one of the best games we've ever measured:

Remember that opponent adjustments are in flux, and will change throughout the year. If the Texans continue to struggle with pass defense (which seems likely), Hilton's DYAR will reflect that, and he'll fall a bit in this table.