Conference Championship Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei

If you're reading this, you certainly know by now what happened in the conference championship games. You already know that Russell Wilson was very bad and LeGarrette Blount was very good. There's not much point in a long essay discussing what happened in those games, so instead we're going to look forward to the Super Bowl -- by looking backward. What were the worst games for the Seahawks and Patriots this year? What were the common threads in those bad games, and do those trends reveal weaknesses that could decide Super Bowl XLIX?

We'll cover Seattle this week, then New England in a special piece during the bye week between games. Why Seattle first? Because they played first on Sunday. I had to pick one of them, and that seems as good a reason as any.

By DVOA, these were Seattle's four worst games this year, in chronological order:

• Week 2: San Diego 30, Seattle 21 (Seattle DVOA: -1.3%): Seattle had a very good day on offense, and their rush defense was solid. Their pass defense, though, was torn apart. Philip Rivers went 28-of-37 for 284 yards with three touchdowns, no interceptions, and one sack. The Seahawks did get some pressure on him, but he was able to escape, with five runs for 23 yards, his highest rushing total in a game this year. Rivers' key receiver that day was Antonio Gates, who caught each of the seven passes thrown his way for 96 yards and three touchdowns.

• Week 6: Dallas 30, Seattle 23 (Seattle DVOA: -37.5%): Russell Wilson had his worst day of the year (well, until the playoffs), going 14-of-28 for only 126 yards with no touchdowns, one interception, and two sacks. The Seahawks also struggled on the ground, gaining 80 yards on only 18 carries; it was one of two games this season where their offense had a negative DVOA on rushing plays. On defense, they played very well against DeMarco Murray, but struggled to slow down Tony Romo, who went 21-of-32 for 250 yards, with two touchdowns, no interceptions, and just one sack.

• Week 7: St. Louis 28, Seattle 26 (Seattle DVOA: -18.7%): Seattle's special teams completely melted down, surrendering a 90-yard punt return touchdown to Stedman Bailey (which, if you haven't seen it, was one of the weirder trick plays of the year) and a 75-yard kickoff return to Benny Cunningham. It was Seattle's worst special teams DVOA of the year, and that's not even counting the fake punt, an 18-yard pass from Johnny Hekker to Cunningham for 18 yards and a first down that effectively iced the game. Technically, that play counts against Seattle's defense in DVOA, but that's OK -- it was their worst pass defense DVOA of the year as well. Austin Davis (you know, the undrafted third-year quarterback who had never entered a game before this year and was eventually benched for journeyman Shaun Hill) needled Seattle's defense all day, going 17-of-20 for 155 yards with two touchdowns, no interceptions, and no sacks.

• Week 11: Kansas City 24, Seattle 20 (Seattle DVOA: -31.3%): It wasn't the best day for Seattle's offense or special teams, but their real problems were found on defense. Jamaal Charles racked up 159 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries. Alex Smith went 11-of-16 for 108 yards, and though he didn't throw for any touchdowns, he had no sacks or interceptions either.

(It is a little unusual that Seattle's four worst games by DVOA were their four losses. Usually when we do this we find a "bad win" that has a lower DVOA than a "good loss." Not in Seattle's case. Counting the playoffs, when they had a positive DVOA, they went 14-0; when they had a negative DVOA, they went 0-4. I don't know if that means anything, but it is a little weird.)

There was a lot of variance in those games. Sometimes Wilson passed well, sometimes he didn't. Sometimes the Seahawks ran well, sometimes they were slowed down. And sometimes they decided they just flat-out forgot about the kicking game entirely. The one common thread in these four games: the pass defense, supposedly the strength of the team, let them down. These losses were four of the worst five games for Seattle's pass defense all year, according to DVOA. (The fifth was in Week 5 against Washington, when Kirk Cousins threw for 283 yards and two touchdowns with no picks.) Really, it's that simple. To beat Seattle, you must find a way to move the ball through the air.

And that, of course, is easier said than done. How did the quartet of Rivers, Romo, Hill, and Smith (10th, second, 36th, and 18th in passing DVOA, respectively) take Seattle down? Collectively, this group (let's call them the Hawkbusters) went 77-of-105 against the Seahawks, gaining 797 yards with seven touchdowns and no interceptions, with only two sacks. The last of those numbers aren't very useful (we're looking for ways to beat Seattle; "throw touchdowns while avoiding interceptions and sacks" is certainly a good strategy, but not a very specific one), but the others are intriguing. That's only 26.3 passes per game, much lower than the league average of 34.9. Obviously, that's partly because these teams were often ahead in the second half, but even early in the game they were very balanced. In the first half, they averaged 14.5 runs and 15.8 pass plays (the league-average rates were 12.8 runs and 18.7 passes). In short: part of putting together a good passing attack against Seattle is making sure you run the ball enough to keep the defense off-balance.

More to the point, look what happened when those teams did pass. Our Seahawks-busting quartet completed 73 percent of their passes, but averaged only 10.4 yards per completion, a rate that drops to single digits if we remove one 47-yard completion from Romo to Terrance Williams. So you can forget about hitting the home run against the Seahawks; if you're going to beat them, you're going to do it with walks and singles.

We can show this further by breaking those 105 passes down by distance. Official play-by-play breaks passes down into "short" (those thrown within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage) and "deep" (anything thrown 16 yards or more downfield). In our annual Almanacs, we break them down further into four categories:

• Short (5 yards or less)
• Mid (6 to 15 yards)
• Deep (16 to 25 yards)
• Bomb (26-plus yards)

With that in mind, here's how our quartet fared in each category, along with league-wide numbers for comparison. (These are NFL averages overall, not just averages against Seattle.)

By either Success Rate or yards per play, the Hawkbusters were by and large better against Seattle than the league average rate regardless of distance -- which shouldn't be surprising, considering they won those games. It's notable, though, that their YAC per reception was still generally lower than league average. Even in their bad games, the Legion of Boom make their tackles. Further, the Hawkbusters threw more Short passes than most teams, with fewer Bombs. (In fact, they only threw six bombs against Seattle in total, five of them by Romo.) That shouldn't be surprising either, considering their high completion rate and low yards per catch. But note also that while their frequency of Mid passes was lower than average, their frequency of Deep passes actually went up. This makes sense considering that Seattle is still largely a zone team; those Short passes were generally thrown to receivers running underneath coverage, while Deep passes went to guys running the seams behind the linebackers but in front of the safeties.

How does New England match up against a defense like that? We tend to think of the Patriots as a team that specializes in screens and slants. Tom Brady threw 291 passes within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, with a DVOA of 9.6%, eighth among starting quarterbacks in both categories. His top receivers on those routes were Julian Edelman and Shane Vereen; those will be the men running underneath routes in the Super Bowl, and the ability of Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright to cover (and tackle) them will be critical.

What about Deep balls? (As a reminder, we're talking here about those that travel 16 to 25 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.) Brady threw 69 Deep balls (eighth), with a DVOA of 60.4%. That sounds very good, but the average DVOA on Deep balls is 51.5%, and though Brady was above that mark, he was just 18th among starters. His top targets there were Rob Gronkowski, Brandon LaFell, and Edelman, so those are the men likely to score on seam routes in the Super Bowl.

(While we're talking about pass distance, we should mention that Brady was 26th among starters in DVOA on Bombs. Given his weaknesses and the strengths of the Seattle defense, big plays could be very hard to come by for New England.)

As for Gronkowski, it would be easy to look at Seattle's 18th-place ranking in coverage against tight ends and think that New England would be best-served by forcing the ball to the world's best tight end over and over again, but there's reason to think that's not the best plan. We covered Gates' big day in San Diego, but otherwise, the teams that beat Seattle did so without major contributions from their tight ends. In their other losses, the Seahawks did not allow a single tight end to gain more than 12 DYAR, and no team's tight ends to gain more than 31, despite playing against Jason Witten, Jared Cook, and Travis Kelce, each of whom finished first or second on his team in targets. It appears that Seattle gives up a small number of easy completions to tight ends in every game, but when they need to they can often take those options out of the passing game. Instead, the receivers who have done the most damage to Seattle in their losses have usually been either secondary wideouts (Terrance Williams, Brian Quick, and Chris Givens had a combined 85 DYAR against Seattle, catching six-of-six passes for 149 total yards) or running backs (Bennie Cunningham, Lance Dunbar, and Danny Woodhead totaled 86 DYAR, catching 13-of-14 balls for 122 yards). As for the top wideouts, even in their losses, Seattle largely kept those players in check. Keenan Allen, Dez Bryant, Kenny Britt, and Dwayne Bowe totaled 26 DYAR in wins over Seattle, catching 13-of-24 balls for 153 yards.

It's tricky to predict how that defense will fare against New England, though, because the Patriots' receiving corps is so unique. Their most dangerous receiver, of course, is Gronkowski, and just trying to find that guy can be a challenge. He spends most of his time as a traditional tight end, but often lines up in the slot or out wide, and splits his targets fairly evenly between the left, right, and middle areas of the field. And though Seattle has been able to mitigate the damage done by tight ends this year, there's a big gap between Gronk and any other tight end in the league. Given the status of New England's other receiving options, will we see Richard Sherman moving around to cover Gronkowski?

Meanwhile, Julian Edelman, despite missing two games, led the team in targets and receptions. On a per-target basis, though, he was exactly league-average in production (DVOA: 0.0%). Brandon LaFell could be something of a secret weapon for New England. He spends most of his time on the offense's left, which means he'll spend a lot of time facing Byron Maxwell and Jeremy Lane, and not much against Sherman. There's reason to think he could match Williams, Quick, or Givens with big results in a small number of plays. The Patriots use a ton of running backs, but Shane Vereen was virtually the only receiving threat out of the backfield, with 77 targets when no other back had more than six. For all that volume, though, he wasn't particularly dangerous, with a negative receiving DVOA. Seattle's attempts to cover Vereen in the passing game will be a rare example of weakness vs. weakness in a contest between the two teams who have been the best in the league for most of the season.

One-Play Wonders

Before we move on to the tables, we want to address the special days a few players had on trick plays this weekend. These players don't qualify for our tables, but we knew we would be asked about them, so here you go.

• Seattle punter Jon Ryan was, by DYAR, the second-best passer of championship weekend. He gains 33 DYAR (and a 3,625.2% DVOA) for his one pass, a 19-yard touchdown on fourth-and-10 to backup lineman Garry Gilliam on a fake field goal.
• Speaking of whom, Gilliam gains 22 DYAR for that touchdown catch.
• Speaking of big guy touchdowns, New England lineman Nate Solder gets 15 DYAR for his 16-yard touchdown against the Colts.
• And speaking of guys who scored against the Colts, fullback James Develin gets 15 DYAR for his 1-yard touchdown catch, the first receiving touchdown of his career.