Postseason QB Stats: 2017 Update

by Scott Kacsmar

As I looked at last year's update to the quarterback postseason stats, one of the first comments from a reader called "justanothersteve" stood out. It was in reference to the lofty stats compiled by Colin Kaepernick in his six playoff starts with the 49ers in 2012 and 2013. The comment read: "Somewhere out there is a GM who will see that stat and will sign Kaepernick thinking he just needs the right coach and players to replicate that performance."

After this latest postseason, aren't we in the same spot with Nick Foles, and didn't his run with the Eagles to a Super Bowl MVP just validate that line of thinking? We'll never know if the Eagles could have made this run if Foles had been the Week 1 starter instead of Carson Wentz, but pressed into action in Week 14 for the stretch run, Foles did a great job of executing Doug Pederson's offense. With the right coach and talented players around him, Foles just had an incredible postseason after recently contemplating retirement before he took another backup role.

We always get plenty of reminders of how success in the NFL is heavily dependent on the supporting cast. When Kaepernick had Jim Harbaugh as his head coach and a very talented roster in San Francisco, the team was in contention for a championship. After Harbaugh left and the roster was stripped of its talent, we saw how quickly things deteriorated. We also saw Foles flop in St. Louis with Jeff Fisher and the Rams before finding his way back to some of his 2013 magic this season with the Eagles.

The 2017 season was loaded with unique quarterback stories thanks in part to so many injuries. Beyond Foles, we saw how Case Keenum (Vikings) and Jared Goff (Rams) were able to excel once given a great scheme and talent around them. Tyrod Taylor (Bills), Blake Bortles (Jaguars), and Marcus Mariota (Titans) also made their postseason debuts this year -- which is why we don't have too many players to update this year.

We are using the same sample of 35 quarterbacks for drive stats and 51 quarterbacks for DVOA. So you won't see Foles in any of the main tables below, because he doesn't meet the requirements of six playoff starts for drive stats or 150 pass attempts for DVOA. We will put his historic postseason into context below, but first up are the drive stats, which means it is time for a disclaimer.

Disclaimer: While passing stats are not entirely individual stats, drive stats are even more teammate-focused. There are, of course, drives where the quarterback never drops back and just hands the ball off every play. The entry "Cam Newton" is another way of saying "2013-15 and 2017 Carolina Panthers," and also an abbreviation for Greg Olsen, Jonathan Stewart, Kelvin Benjamin, Ted Ginn, Ryan Kalil, offensive coordinator Mike Shula, etc. Drive stats are not adjusted for opponent.

Most of these stats will be familiar to users of Football Outsiders' drive stats -- my inspiration for collecting this data in the first place years ago. Yards per drive still measures net yards, including penalties. As always, kneeldown drives are excluded, and any kneeldown is removed from the drive stats. Generally, only games started by the quarterback are included, but there are some significant backup performances included for Steve Young, Troy Aikman, John Elway, Mark Brunell, Dave Krieg, Bernie Kosar, and Randall Cunningham. Every quarterback included has at least six playoff starts and the data goes back to 1981 at this time.

Drive Stats for 1981-2017

Our first table includes general drive stats for things like yards (Yds/Dr), points (Pts/Dr), and starting field position (LOS/Dr) per drive. The average scoring margin at the start of each drive is also included in the final column. The 13 active players are in bold, and the average of the sample is included at the bottom.

It was good to see Drew Brees return to playoff action with the Saints this year, but even a solid two-game run did not do much to change his already impressive numbers here. Matt Ryan also remains in the top 10 in yards per drive and points per drive after hitting double-digits in playoff starts. This is the first time I've done this update without Aaron Rodgers having any new games to add. The Packers missed the playoffs for the first time since 2008 after Rodgers broke his collarbone in Week 6. This was also the first time that Russell Wilson did not lead Seattle to the playoffs, his sixth year in the league.

The amusing development here is how Alex Smith has taken the field with a study-high average lead of 3.51 points in the playoffs, but is only 2-5 as a starter. That's because his only comfortable win was a 30-0 shutout against the 2015 Texans, and he has watched a 38-10 lead evaporate against the 2013 Colts and a 21-3 halftime lead disappear against Tennessee last month. Smith has only turned the ball over four times in the playoffs, but his offenses have frequently punted and gone three-and-out. We have those stats, as well as penalty differentials, touchdowns per drive, and the average length of a quarterback's touchdown drive in a supplemental table. The QBTO/Dr column is for turnovers (interceptions and lost fumbles) committed by the quarterback only.

Passing DVOA for 1986-2017

We've put together the playoff passing DVOA for all 51 quarterbacks with at least 150 passes since 1986.

It looks like the best shot of getting Mark Sanchez out of the top five is for Nick Foles to start another playoff game. Foles comes up just short of qualifying for this table with 146 passes in four playoff starts, but his DVOA would lead everyone at 56.6%. Fittingly enough, Foles trails only Jeff Hostetler (58.1%) for the highest passing DVOA for anyone with at least 50 playoff passes since 1986. Both quarterbacks won a Super Bowl after taking over for an injured starter late in the season. Hostetler also had two highly efficient playoff starts for the 1993 Raiders. We'll see what the future holds for Foles after one of the best postseasons by a quarterback.

Here are the top 10 postseasons in passing DYAR and passing DVOA (minimum 50 passes) since 1986.

Foles had the fourth-most DYAR and sixth-highest DVOA. You can also say that this was Tom Brady's best postseason yet with his 681 DYAR trailing only Joe Montana's epic 1989 run. Brady's 61.1% DVOA was also a personal playoff best, topping his 50.5% DVOA in 2011, another season the Patriots lost the Super Bowl to an NFC East team (Giants). Brady has actually had five postseasons with a DVOA above 30.0%, but 2004 was the only one of the five where the Patriots finished with a Super Bowl win. The following table recaps Brady's eight Super Bowl starts and the stats for his opponent's quarterback.

Turnovers have often hurt opposing quarterbacks against the Patriots in Super Bowls, and you can really see that in the numbers of Kurt Warner, Donovan McNabb, and Russell Wilson. Brady's fumble on Sunday night lost 41 DYAR, or else he may have had more than 300 DYAR in the Super Bowl. His 294 passing DYAR is a Super Bowl record going back to 1986, edging out the 283 DYAR Joe Montana had against the 1989 Broncos.

This was easily Brady's best losing performance of his playoff career, and in fact the 294 passing DYAR is the most by any quarterback in a playoff loss since 1986. This was a notable postseason on that front. Ben Roethlisberger's 267 DYAR against the Jaguars in the divisional round loss stands as the third-most passing DYAR in a playoff loss, and even Cam Newton's 169 DYAR effort against the Saints ranks 16th since 1986.

Overall, Super Bowl LII was Brady's 10th playoff loss. We looked at how every quarterback with at least four playoff losses and 100 passes in said losses has fared since 1986.

Brady's 9.6% DVOA ranks ninth, but is less than half of that of Drew Brees (20.6%), who also edges out Brady for the most DYAR (644) in losses despite having four fewer losses. This postseason, Brees and Brady joined Peyton Manning as the only three quarterbacks in NFL history to lose multiple playoff games after throwing a go-ahead touchdown pass in the fourth quarter.

Brees was upstaged by Alex Smith in 2011 and of course the Minnesota Miracle from Case Keenum to Stefon Diggs this year. Manning's defeats came against the Chargers with Billy Volek filling in at quarterback (2007) and after Rahim Moore made Joe Flacco filthy rich (2012). Brady's two lost comebacks have been in Super Bowl losses to Eli Manning (XLII) and now Foles.

That's arguably the three most prolific passers in NFL history falling short against six guys who have been the punchline to countless jokes over the years (before and after said wins). But that's really how the NFL playoffs work. Anyone can be a hero for one game, or even one postseason run. Surviving a three- or four-game playoff run usually comes down to winning what amounts to a few coin flips. The Patriots survived Jacksonville, but did not close out the Eagles. Philadelphia was a play away from falling to Atlanta right out of the gate, but benefitted from a terrible red-zone sequence by the Falcons, and Foles went on to have the two best games of his career.

Time will tell if Foles can ever come close to repeating this effort, or if he even gets to start another playoff game in his career. Remember, we're only talking about this because of an injury to Wentz. As one famous auteur once put it, eighty percent of success is showing up. The fact that we haven't added any new quarterbacks to our playoff data the last couple of years shows how difficult it is to continuously make the tournament and have some success once you are there.