Football Outsiders
Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis
Extra PointsFO on ESPNPodcasts

See All Extra Points

See All FO on ESPN Posts

See All Podcasts

Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

This is an open thread for discussion of the 2019 NFL draft. You can use this thread all night Thursday night during the first round, or to discuss the aftermath of Round 1 the next day, and then again Friday night (Rounds 2-3) and Saturday (Rounds 4-7). We will also have our annual Audibles at the Line staff discussions from the first two nights, published on Friday and Saturday mornings.

Comments

70 comments, Last at 27 Apr 2019, 2:26pm

1 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

by Sixknots // Apr 25, 2019 - 12:35pm

Will/should Arizona trade Rosen before/during the draft (or not)? Or do they trade the 1st pick to the Raiders?

14 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

I think Rosen's status after today is one of the most interesting stories of this draft. Only about 150 minutes until the draft starts and he still hasn't been traded. Of course, there's no more drama to the first pick once he's traded; so maybe he already has and Goodell made them keep the trade quiet for the ratings. It's just the kind of d-bag move I'd expect from Goodell.

3 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

I have to say I was hoping FO would drop another fake mock draft. The Pats drafting Thanos, with Belichick apologizing for picking the guy who made Gronk disappear, would have been awesome.

Who am I kidding, the Jets would have picked Thanos, and the Pats would have taken the Infinity Gauntlet afterward. You know, the thing without which Thanos is almost useless.

4 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

by Will Allen // Apr 25, 2019 - 1:17pm

I've always been pretty opposed to drafting by position very strongly, but the Vikings are so ridiculously lopsided, in a bad way, that I think they ought to draft at least 4 or 5 offensive linemen, in the hope that they get one productive starter, and at least one guy who adds decent depth.

6 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

by Mountain Time … // Apr 25, 2019 - 1:41pm

I recently learned that last year, the Broncos had a trade with the Bills worked out: Bills would get #5 to pick Josh Allen (QB), the Broncos would get two firsts and a second (picks #12, 22, 53). The trade was contingent on Bradley Chubb not being available; he was, so the trade was canceled.

I don't know what to think about this. I'm a huge Chubb fan, and he almost certainly wouldn't have been available at 12. But I can't help but think the Broncos really should have done that trade anyway. That's an enormous haul.

8 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

I would have swung that trade because I wasn't high on Chubb. Shows you that I know nothing. In other news, I inherited a rather painful metal seat to sit on last week.

12 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

Signing an elite QB in free agency really opened up things for Denver such that they could use their draft picks to fortify their defense and add guys like derek wolfe, bradley roby, and malik Jackson instead of chasing a QB thru multiple drafts

19 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

Yet the Broncos still blew a 2nd round pick on Osweiler that same year…

I agree that they stumbled into Manning, but I think he affected their ability to recruit top-tier free agents more than anything. IIRC Ward, Ware, Welker, Talib, and others signed in Denver in large part because of Manning's presence.

I think Elway has been pretty average, overall. He's made some really good moves and some really, obviously bad ones.

10 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

I generally think that is wrong. The broncos probably said if their guy was there.
Their guy was either Baker or Sam. He was gone, but Chubb who they thought would be gone wasn't, so they basically lied about who their guy had been. ( Not saying the report is wrong, but that the broncos lied about it,)

Regardless, I wish they had made that deal

11 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

where did you read that Denver lied?

as a bills fan, im glad buffalo didn't trade both first rounders to Denver. but I wish buffalo had kept cordy glenn and stayed put and drafted 2 players in each of the first 3 rounds, picking an offensive player and a defensive player in each round, or better yet 3 OL and 3 DL, that would have really been something!

33 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

No where.

But I don't believe any team will say "this is our guy and if he's there we are taking him". It's stupid to share your board. We know from reporting that lots of teams will say, we have a guy, or we want someone, or there are two or three guys we like and are taking if they are there, but this is the first time I've ever seen a first round story where someone explicitly is supposed to have named the guy. So I don't believe that the name was said.

I agree with your take on what Buffalo should have done

16 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

by vrao81 // Apr 25, 2019 - 6:05pm

Montez Sweat apparently was misdiagnosed with his heart condition. I wonder if its too late however, to improve his draft stock.

17 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

by Richie // Apr 25, 2019 - 6:16pm

The NFL.com draft tracker doesn't seem to have the start time of the draft listed anywhere.

18 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

Day 1: Round 1. Thursday April 25th at 8 p.m. Eastern. Time per pick: 10 minutes per pick.
Day 2: Rounds 2 & 3. Friday April 26th at 7 p.m. Eastern. 7 minutes for round 2; 5 minutes for round 3
Day 3: Rounds 4 through 7. Saturday April 27th at 12 p.m. Eastern. 5 minutes for rounds 4-6; 4 minutes for round 7

20 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

by Willsy // Apr 25, 2019 - 7:59pm

Watching ESPN I had forgotten the amount of advertising you Yanks have to endure.

21 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

by Willsy // Apr 25, 2019 - 8:03pm

How long in advance is the NFL Draft city selected? Is the selection of Nashville an attempt to appeal to the core fan base more? Probably a fluke but interesting.

26 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

by T-Vector // Apr 25, 2019 - 8:31pm

quick thought, do you really believe that Arizona will get even a second for Rosen now? There is a limited number of idiots at GM.

34 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

Yes.
He's had a terrible situation, and is super cheap (rookie deals are mostly signing bonus, so the new team just pays low salary), and reasonable upside. Kc just paid out the wazoo for the right to overpay Frank Clark. Rosen for a two is a good deal

54 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

He may be worth a two, but why should any team give one up? He will either be cut or dumped. I might offer a three but that is about it. It has little to do with his talent, when Arizona took Murray he had no starting job. The Cardinals really blew this one. They were number one so they didn't need to blow smoke. Just trade Rosen a week before the draft and reap the benefits. Now his value has plummeted.

58 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

Without inside knowledge it's difficult to criticize the Cardinals, because we simply don't know what they were/weren't offered for Rosen. I'd be surprised if the Giants and Redskins did not at least inquire after him prior to the draft. Then again those do not appear to be two well-run franchises right now, with the type of management liable to want 'their guy' at the expense of any potential value on offer.

The Cardinals' trade leverage should increase in August/September as a couple of teams inevitably lose their starters to injury. Although Rosen may now demand a trade and refuse to show up to camp. It's certainly not an ideal situation.

55 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

1. Probably QB-needy teams preferred some of the rookies, and so wanted to wait to see how those would fall. For instance, Washington might've had "trade for Rosen" as a backup plan in case they didn't get Haskins, which made them more comfortable waiting for Haskins to fall to them rather than trading up. I'm guessing that Arizona didn't make a trade because they weren't getting very good pre-draft offers.
2. Arizona doesn't need to be desperate to trade Rosen away. Waiting a year or two shouldn't hurt his trade value, while they have him he's a cheap backup QB, and he is a Cousins-type plan B in case their RG3-type plan A doesn't pan out.

29 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

by justanothersteve // Apr 25, 2019 - 8:49pm

Wow! Did anyone see the Raiders picking Ferrell? No wonder Gruden kicked everyone out of the draft room.

38 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

by Mountain Time … // Apr 25, 2019 - 9:34pm

Per PFT, the Broncos got #20 and 52 and a 2020 3rd. It's an okay trade, I guess.

39 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 25, 2019 - 9:36pm

I see Gruden surprises lots of draftniks and so I check the SackSEER article to remind myself who Clelin Ferrell is, and read the following:

"According to SackSEER, Ferrell is a thoroughly average draft prospect who probably does not belong in the first two rounds."

Will watch this one with interest over the next couple of years!

57 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

Although in Jacobs' case, BackCAST does mention that they don't have the historical data to evaluate broken tackles directly, which apparently is a strength of Jacobs'.

Of course, that should show up, indirectly, in other metrics they do measure.

But, yeah, Gruden vs statistics is becoming a thing!

59 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

Gruden not concernend with stats. Only concenr is winning. J,. Jacobs tremendous talent. should be vbesty running back for Raiders since marcus allen

good fnatasy first round pick in 2019 will be Jacobs

40 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

by Mountain Time … // Apr 25, 2019 - 9:59pm

Haskins doesn't look thrilled about going to Washington. The kid's smart.

44 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

by justanothersteve // Apr 25, 2019 - 10:56pm

Mixed feelings about the Packers two picks. I'm concerned that Rashan Gary has such a low floor. However, I thought Matthews would bust too. Really like getting Darnell Savage. They currently have Admiral Armbar on the depth chart at free safety. He's about the same age as Rodgers. And I like what I've read about Savage.

47 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

by herewegobrowni… // Apr 25, 2019 - 11:06pm

Welp, looks like the Chiefs will have to draft a WR...just when it looked like, just a few hours ago, Tyreek might end up skating by on this one without much legal or league-based punishment.

48 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

by bravehoptoad // Apr 25, 2019 - 11:08pm

I'm kind of sad the 49ers picked Bosa iso Williams. He'll be a better player, I believe, but hard to blame the 49ers. They just didn't need to draft another DT at the top of the 1st round for the 4th time in 5 years.

51 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

by Lebo // Apr 25, 2019 - 11:19pm

Very happy the Colts were able to trade down there. Once all the pass rushing DTs were off the board, there was nobody left whom I liked enough for a first round pick.

56 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

by LionInAZ // Apr 26, 2019 - 1:28am

The Lions picking Hockenson tells me he he won't succeed in Detroit. The Packers picking Gary tells me he won't succeed in Green Bay, A just universe prevails.

60 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

by umuddafadda // Apr 26, 2019 - 11:25am

wondering when AZ GM will catch heat....he's hired coaches for 1 yr....gotten 1st rd draft choices (again for one year)...I don't think Murray translates to success in the NFL as a QB.

61 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

plus GM (Keim) decided to "shop" Rosen the night before draft!
Now he'll get next-2-nothing for a 2018 1st rounder.....my take is Murray
will be ok at QB, not exceptional/long term, and Keim'll be booted out
rather quickly....AZ will have much more instability than need be.

67 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

by umuddafadda // Apr 26, 2019 - 3:01pm

Daniel Snyder in charge of Skins drafts....both'll be busts. He ought to compare his draft picks wi/Jerruh Jones..both have alot of money but very little NFL attribute insights.

68 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

by Mountain Time … // Apr 26, 2019 - 7:56pm

I hope passing on Greedy means the Broncos are fully intending to pay Chris Harris

69 Re: Open 2019 NFL Draft Thread

by justanothersteve // Apr 26, 2019 - 8:27pm

The Dolphins are basically Rosen's last chance for a #2 pick this year. (Technically, the Pats are too but I'm not going there.) Does the trade down mean they'll give AZ a #2, but get all they can for it?