SITE NEWS: Next Gen KUBIAK Preseason Fantasy Projections Now Available!
Attention Football Outsiders readers: The Next Gen KUBIAK fantasy football application is now available!
Just like in past years, you can get Football Outsiders' KUBIAK preseason fantasy football projections customized to your league's rules and constantly updated throughout the preseason. However, the Next Generation is now ONLINE! No longer will you need to have Microsoft Excel in order to use the Football Outsiders KUBIAK application. No longer will you need to download updates over and over every time we change our projections.
The new Next Gen KUBIAK application allows you to save multiple leagues with multiple sets of rules. Switch between them easily. One league PPR and one league without? We'll track them both. Do you do a 2-QB league with eight teams and a 1-QB league with 12 teams? We'll track them both. You can incorporate Football Outsiders' Risk projections (Green, Yellow, or Red) or leave them out. You can incorporate Playoff Adjustments that give more weight to Weeks 14-16, or leave them out. We'll even track inflation in your auction so you know how keepers or players drafted early have affected the auction value of the players still left to be drafted.
Our standard view compares the rank in KUBIAK fantasy points over position baseline to the average draft position in drafts at ESPN, Yahoo, and around the Web. Plus, an expanded positional view lists the actual stat projections for each player along with projected DVOA for "skill position" players.
Please note IDP projections, which are usually included with our KUBIAK fantasy football projections, are coming in early August. We're still finalizing the functionality so you can customize the specific IDP rules of your league. Also coming in early August: print functionality so you can print off your KUBIAK cheat sheet and take it to your draft without having to take your laptop or tablet.
You can get access to the new Next Gen KUBIAK application through the Football Outsiders store. Or check out our storefront and get KUBIAK as part of one of our three combined premium packages that also include premium stat access and Football Outsiders Almanac 2019.
If you want to see how the new Next Gen KUBIAK application works, you can check out this demo using the 2017 projections and play around with it for free.
Do you have feedback about the new Next Gen KUBIAK application? Please contact us to let us know.
Comments
51 comments, Last at 26 Aug 2019, 11:07pm
#1 by cstoos // Jul 23, 2019 - 5:32pm
Man...I had a process for the last few years with the spreadsheet and a few of my own macros that allowed manual adjustments and print formatting. I'm guessing the spreadsheet isn't going to be an option at all from here forward?
Change is scary.
#7 by aliaskjw // Jul 24, 2019 - 12:50pm
Ahh, missed this at first blush. Useful. Would be cool if in the detailed view all positions could be viewed also (though don't know if you guys are running into excess data issues in attempting this.)
Broad strokes, update looks cool, look fwd to the upcoming tweaks. Thanks for all the great work as always fellas...
#5 by tgallagan // Jul 23, 2019 - 7:23pm
Overall, don't like the upgrade... the previous version was fully integrated into my draft boards, but I'll adjust for that. However, why are their no projected targets - perhaps I'm missing them?. This is a key indicator and a stat that never should have been removed, if it in fact was. You had a great product, it won't be improved by removing a critical KPI. Thanks.
#10 by Eddo // Jul 24, 2019 - 3:16pm
I sent a comment via the link in the web app, but one thing that the current version doesn't allow is inputting a decimal in the "per" field for receiving yards. My main league gives one point for every 7.5 receiving yards (we like this more than 0.5 PPR), but I currently have to enter "8" in that field, or else it won't let me submit the scoring settings.
#23 by owangutang // Jul 29, 2019 - 8:16am
Gotta throw my hat into the "disappointed" pile as well. Having that info available in Excel was real helpful for me in developing graph charts for tiers (me no good with numbers, need pictures).
I understand however that to completely replicate Excel in... less than a year(?) and in a web app to boot is a daunting task. I hope the FO staff can give a roadmap (plans, not promises) into what will be implemented in the future.
#26 by rpwong // Jul 29, 2019 - 7:28pm
My workaround is to copy/paste the values from the website table into an Excel spreadsheet. If you need more of the raw data, you can also copy/paste the expanded view (since the rows will match) or download the CSV and use a vlookup to match on player names.
I'm pasting into an unformatted "Data" tab, and then referencing those values in other tabs so that my tables update with a minimum of fuss.
EDIT: I've realized that you can't simply copy/paste the expanded view and match it to the summary, since the expanded view only shows one position (e.g. RB) at a time. So a vlookup with the CSV is the best way to go.
#15 by The Powers That Be // Jul 25, 2019 - 5:50pm
Okay, so I'm comparing calculations in the web tool with calculations I do on the csv and they don't quite match. My best guess right now is that "FUM" is total fumbles, not fumbles lost, and you're estimating fumbles lost as roughly (or exactly?) half of fumbles. If that's not it, I'm not sure where the discrepancies are. You probably explain this somewhere, but I haven't seen it.
#18 by The Powers That Be // Jul 27, 2019 - 4:51pm
The old spreadsheet would show which players' stats were based on partial seasons, through suspensions or injuries, and the tool would fill in the rest with a replacement-level performance. Is there a way to see what's happening with that in the new tool (and in the CSV)? The CSV doesn't list games played.
#20 by Aaron Schatz // Jul 28, 2019 - 11:10am
This will be noted. Right now there are no such players which require being listed with partial replacement-level performance. (We had this in there for Tyreek Hill but then the league decided not to suspend him.) The .csv doesn't list games played because our projections have never listed games played in the past.
#19 by Jere // Jul 28, 2019 - 10:03am
I am unsure why you've done away completely with the Excel for those of us who have used this for years. You've already mentioned the limitation of the CSV version. You should make the Risk factors customizable as I would adjust these on my preferences in both ferreting out players to target and prepare my draft board accordingly. Will try the new format this year but, as an consderably long-term FO member, I am a little disappointed by this.
#21 by The Powers That Be // Jul 28, 2019 - 1:35pm
I had the same issue, so I went ahead the other day and built a macro-enabled Excel tool from scratch that basically does what the old one did, with some more flexibility/functionality, and works with the new csv format. I'd be happy to share with a few folks to test it out and give me feedback. I would send it without projections included, since you need to buy those from FO, but the tool imports the downloaded csv file. If interested, contact me at gmail: jdkapow. I'm not charging anything, but if FO thinks this is solicitation or just bad form and deletes, c'est la vie.
#22 by anotherpatsfan // Jul 29, 2019 - 12:05am
)In leagues where we group WR with TE, when I click that box in the web app, it appears to be setting the baseline at -1000 (so Hopkins FP over baseline is -775. It works fine in my tight-ends-separate leagues, so something is wrong with that switch. I sent feedback.
Also, ye olde Excel spreadsheet had a baseline tab, which was informative (to me). Is that information available through the app (other by calculating it yourself)?
#25 by Aaron Schatz // Jul 29, 2019 - 6:13pm
We'll be keeping track of all KUBIAK updates with this thread: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/discussion/running-list-2019-kubiak-changes
The first update includes the first player (A.J. Green) with a "replacement level" adjustment, as noted in comments 18 and 20 above.
#34 by MilesArcher // Aug 05, 2019 - 8:02pm
I am giving the new app a shot after using the Excel macros for years.
In filling in the scoring for defenses, it limits to +/- 99.9 for defenses. I need to be able to put in up to -175. Yeah, we have a unique scoring system, but we like it. It's evolved over 20+ years. Any chance the limit checking on the app could be changed to accept +/-200 for defensive points allowed?
I suppose I can scale it down by a factor of 10 and just multiply it back up when I export it to something I can use on draft day.
#38 by ifrayman // Aug 12, 2019 - 1:14pm
one thing i liked about the spreadsheet in previous years that i can't seem to find anywhere in the new format is the additional tabs that showed things like TOP BYE WEEK CHOICES and FANTASY DEFENSE PAIRINGS for example. Are you still putting that out for kubiak purchasers anywhere?
#39 by Richie // Aug 12, 2019 - 4:25pm
Has anybody played with the FO Auction value amounts? I'm in a dynasty league, with an auction for unprotected players. Looking at QB's in our league, most of the good QB's have been frozen, except the old guys: Brady, Rivers, Roethlisberger and Brees. The "Auction Value Current" for each of those players is slightly *lower* than the "Original" value. There will likely be 6 teams in our league bidding for those 4 players, so I expect some (or all) of those 4 guys to go for much *higher* values.
I've never used any other tools for calculating auction values like this. But does it seem logical that the prices would be so low?
#40 by deutschla // Aug 15, 2019 - 11:48am
In previous years I’ve always printed out the excel sheet because it’s easier to mark off players and view content than on the iPhone which can be a pain.
Is the new web app formatted for PC only, or does it also have formatting for smart phones. A big thing is being able to quickly delete players that have been drafted so I only view available players.
#41 by Richie // Aug 15, 2019 - 2:10pm
PC only. If you try to use it on mobile, you will get a message that says "KUBIAK is best viewed on large devices. Please use a larger screen for best viewing experience."
You have to force "Desktop Site" on your phone in order to get the KUBIAK data, which makes the text very small so that you have to zoom in to read it.
#44 by MJK // Aug 18, 2019 - 1:47am
Any particular reason why the league settings in KUBIAK don't align with the Yahoo! league defaults? For example, our league counts offensive fumbles as -1 and fumbles lost as another -1, but KUBIAK only lets you count whole fumbles, on the offensive side. But on the defensive side, it differentiates between fumbles forced and fumbles recovered, which Yahoo (unfortunately) does not allow...
Also, how does one tell it that the FLEX position can include a TE, without grouping TE and WR's (our league requires 1 TE, 1 WR, and the flex can be RB/TE/WR, whihc is pretty standard). Granted, it's rare for people to flex a TE, but I've seen it done (we had a player that managed to roster Gronk and Olsen a couple of years ago!)
#46 by Richie // Aug 19, 2019 - 3:35pm
Remember, KUBIAK is just creating an estimate for which players will be the best. For your fumbles/fumbles lost question, fumble recoveries are somewhat random (depending on where they happen). So, in your case, I would set Fumbles to -1.5. The half point would account for fumbles being lost about half the time.
For your TE question, I think I would just ignore the TE flex aspect. The dropoff in tight end scoring is usually pretty steep - there are generally 5-10 TE's worth playing, the rest are usually just injury/bye fill-ins. So you probably won't want to increase the value of the possible flex TE's, because they are unlikely to be used in place of a WR/RB.
Yes - ideally KUBIAK would be able to account for these things, but there has to be a limit on customization, and this is all just an estimate anyway.
#45 by MJK // Aug 18, 2019 - 1:52am
Another question... I never liked using KUBIAK's risk adjustments, because I think just knocking the total down a small percent is a dumb way of taking risk into account, but I liked seeing the risk adjustments by color code. That way, if a player was flagged as risky, I could judge for myself if I wanted to roll the dice on a player.
I.e. given that fantasy football is a form of the "knapsack problem", there's a big difference between a player that has a projection of 0.8X and a player that has an 80% chance of getting X and a 20% chance of getting zero! (Ask everyone who drafted LeVeon Bell last year!)
The fact that I either need to apply risk adjustments or ignore risk totally is a big problem... likely will require that I turn risk adjustment on, download the CSV, and uncorrect for risk myself, which is not what I'm paying for. Couldn't you add an option to view risk colors but not apply risk adjustments?
#49 by nickThunderdome // Aug 22, 2019 - 1:00am
I've set up 2 of my leagues with the scoring rules and the output for both is showing that kickers and team defenses are worth negative points over baseline - the top defense / kicker is at worth at least 20 points less than the number being used for replacement level.
#50 by charlesfromage // Aug 24, 2019 - 11:31am
Is anyone else having trouble getting the "Print Summary" button to work? I'm on a Mac and I've tried it in both Firefox and Chrome. For me, it doesn't do anything when I press the button.
If I try to print using the browser's "Print", I only get one page of data. Any suggestions? The CSV isn't set up great for printing.