Football Outsiders
Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Week 1 Open Discussion Thread

Yay! Football! It starts tonight with Green Bay at Chicago. Other prime-time games this week include Pittsburgh at New England on Sunday night, then Houston at New Orleans AND Denver at Oakland in a Monday night double-header. Use this thread to discuss them all, and the rest of Sunday's action!

Comments

163 comments, Last at 12 Sep 2019, 8:51pm

5 @

Oh my god. This nation-wide obsession with the double-doink is so dumb. It conveniently removes the blame from Nagy and the offense, though.

6 Could not agree more.  I’ve…

In reply to by Mountain Time …

Could not agree more.  I’ve never seen a professional coaching staff being so neurotic about something.  

Verhei put it best when he said that the Bears overreacted to the double doink and underreacted to the offense’s performance.

8 The Packers are lucky the…

The Packers are lucky the Bears don’t have a better quarterback, or they’d be down three scores by now.

11 Just once in my life, can…

Just once in my life, can the Bears have an offense that doesn’t suck? I’m not asking for a good offense...just one that doesn’t squander the defense.

13 1995 and 2013 were pretty…

1995 and 2013 were pretty good right?  Well the 2013 defense was terrible....don’t remember how good the ‘95 defense was, but IIRC none of Wannestedt’s teams had a great defense.

15 Bears LT Leno is getting…

Bears LT Leno is getting really good jumps on the snap. I can't believe he's not ahead of the ball, but he's going to be hard to beat if he keeps it up

16 LaFleur to Michell Tafoya: …

LaFleur to Michell Tafoya: “We have to run the ball more.” Pretty much the last thing an analytics-inclined fan wants to hear their coach say..

20 Hopefully that's just coach…

Hopefully that's just coach speak for "I'm not going to tell you what we're going to do".

Whatever the plan is, looks like the only thing that's going to work with this OL versus the Bears' DL is Rodgers pulling rabbits out of his ***.

17 100 Year Anniversary Offence?

So when the Bears heard they were hosting the season opener in honour of the 100th year anniversary, did they think that meant they were supposed to pull out the playbook from 100 years ago?

I know, that's unfair. The actual playbook from 100 years ago calls for a wing sweep on 3rd and 10, rather than throw the ball 2 yards downfield to a man in blanket coverage.

19 1985

Does FO not have all the play-by-play they need to calculate DVOA for 1985? I guess we're going to have to wait another year at least?

23 Trick play, huh?

Yeah, that was cover your eyes bad. 

Not the main idea, that the eligible receiver a yard back of the line who looks like a blocker will sneak out and you throw it to him.  The problem was when the Packer DB picked him up there was no, like literally no, second option.

The whole success of the play was dependent on the defense not noticing the sneakily placed eligible receiver.  It's basically the equivalent of saying the odds the opposition are stupid are greater than the odds we can move their line back a foot.

 

24 Passing up a 51-yard FG try,…

Passing up a 51-yard FG try, on a night when wind is not a factor, to go for it on 4th and 10. Nagy is approaching Trestman levels of inexplicable decisions here.

42 Is it that Crazy?

I don’t think the go for it on 4th and 10 is that crazy.  This is right on the border of FG and go for the NYT bot, so any difference is just how bad you think the Bears offense is versus average in this situation (while this is real, I don’t think it’s THAT huge).  The crazier mistake was the punt on 4th and 3 from the 40ish yard line early on.

26 LL

Potential Loser League team name: "LOL J.K. Scott"

27 I'm loving the wide angle…

I'm loving the wide angle shots on this drive, when they're keeping the QB and a lot of the secondary in the frame.

I don't like how they're switching back and forth between angles though. One play the camera is behind the offense, the next play it's behind the defense, then behind the offense but from a higher vantage point…

28 League Troubles

Following their soporific Super Bowl, the league was looking for something better than this narcotic effort to start the new season.

29 The Bears are down 7, on the…

The Bears are down 7, on the GB 22, there's almost 3 minutes to go, they have all 3 timeouts … and they're in hurry up. Are they worried they won't leave Rodgers enough time to beat them in regulation if they don't play hurry up? Or is this some sort of advanced tactics where they're planning on winning with 2 FGs??

30 So which of these statements…

So which of these statements is true?

1. The Packers defense is really good.
2. The Bears offence is really bad.
3. The predictive power of week 1 results is close to zero.

35 I think mostly 2 as well, a…

I think mostly 2 as well, a second year under Pettine,a really underrated and excellent coordinator, and a massive influx of talent explains this result the most. Idk about the Bears offense as a whole being terrible, but Mitch Bortles was already terrible and was getting by with volatile and unsustainable performances in 2018, so a regression towards to mean seemed likely (and he even got lucky with multiple dropped interceptions in this game, too!)

I know week 1, don't jump to conclusions, blah blah, but I think we can take a lot from this game seeing as how FOA already pointed out the Packers likely defensive improvement and the likely Bears regression. Pettine's D looks legit and Blake Trubisky looks like he hasn't improved one iota in Nagy's gimmicky offense. The only mystery to me is the chemistry between Rodgers and LaFluer and how the Packers offense will coalesce. Since Rodgers can win a Super Bowl with a pretty uninspiring coach like McCarthy, I like their chances and I don't see why the Packers shouldn't be considered Super Bowl contenders.

Also, with Bears and Vikings D already being top 5, plus with the Packers resurgence on D and likely improvement from the Lions, I'm loving this throwback black n blue NFC North dogfight for the 100 year anniversary of the NFL. That was an extremely entertaining 10-3 game, in my admittedly football-starved opinion.

 

 

33 Only if

you're not Trying for Tua.  Of course none of the main competitors for that title have a divisional home game this week.  Except for the Raiders.

36 I think it's #2 for sure…

I think it's #2 for sure. The difference between last night's game and last year's opener are like night and day to me. Last year, the Bears offense did some good things and then Nagy turtled and tried to run out the clock against Aaron Rodgers, which was unquestionably a bad decision but as one mistake in his first game as a head coach, maybe excusable. Last night, the Bears offense save for Allen Robinson looked pretty atrocious throughout the entire game (although I will give Tarik Cohen and David Montgomery a pass, because it's not their fault that Nagy is a moron who underutilized them)...it wasn't one or two fatal mistakes, or the decision to let off the gas with a big lead, because this team wasn't going to score more than a handful of points no matter what they did.

We rightfully look back on the Trestman era as a disaster, but as I recall, at the start of his second season people still thought of him as a smart offensive mind, just like they still do with Nagy...

37 I appear to be in the…

I appear to be in the minority, but I'm going with mostly #1. The Pack made some great additions on defense. I don't know much about Zadarious Smith, but I'm a fan of Preston Smith and Adrian Amos.

Tramon Williams, FWIW, <a href="https://mobile.twitter.com/mattschneidman/status/1169833117286195202">is going with #2.</a>

(okay I know I formatted that right, what the hell is going on????)

And we all know that #3 is true

38 Wow this text editor…

here is Tramon Williams blaming Trubisky for sucking. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/mattschneidman/status/1169833117286195202

We wanted to make Mitch play quarterback. We knew they had a lot of weapons, we knew they were dangerous, we knew all of those things. But we knew if we could make Mitch play quarterback, that we’d have a chance.

 

39 I meant to say 1 actually…

I meant to say 1 actually. But yeah, Trubisky sucking definitely helped last night. Good defenses are supposed to expose bad quarterbacks, however, and per that quote, that's exactly what the Packers did

34 Conclusions

An away win against a division favorite is pretty big. If it is followed up with a home win against the other division favorite, Pack will be pretty damn happy.

judging Lafleur-Rodgers after no pre-season snaps against one of the best defensive teams in league on the road is folly.. they didn't turn ball over.

Packers played well on defense-- but Nagy playcalling and Trubitsky execution were both substandard. Many tougher tests coming for Pettine and Co.

I am superglad McCarthy's not the coach anymore-- wish it happened a year or two earlier

40 That was awful.

Bears hold the Packers to 10 points and yet lose at home because they wasted opportunities to move the ball.
Trubisky missed throws the same he did the past two seasons. No improvement there. Pathetic.

43 FO Discord/Slack?

I have a new phone and am wondering if there's still a slack group or has it become a discord group?

44 I think virtually everyone…

I think virtually everyone expects Mahomes to take a step back this year, but it won't be happening in the first two minutes of the season. Sammy Watkins turns a first down on third and three into a long TD.

45 I'm pretty happy with the…

I'm pretty happy with the early games in my area: KC@JAX and ATL@MIN. I'll try to enjoy them, because the afternoon NY/DAL is going to be a snoozer. I enjoy watching Aikman call Cowboys games about as much as I enjoy getting a concussion.

46 On KC's second drive Mahomes…

On KC's second drive Mahomes tries a no look pass on third down in the red zone for no real reason. The ball sails way high over an open Kelce's head. Definitely an unforced error.

143 Yes, that was bad. Was…

Yes, that was bad. Was watching with my dad and commented he didn't need to do the no look on that one, and he told me that no one should tell him how to play after the year he had last year. I get that he was MVP and everything, but that was an unnecessary error. Kelce was so wide open he could have lobbed it to him.