Win the Wire
The best players to add to your fantasy rosters (based on Football Outsiders' advanced metrics).

Win the Wire: Week 2

by Scott Spratt

Welcome to Football Outsiders' new fantasy waiver wire column, Win the Wire. Each Tuesday, I'll highlight my picks of the players to target and avoid in both your shallow (10 to 12 teams) and deep fantasy leagues, with recommendations for your Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) and whether you should use a top waiver pick if that means you lose it.

Week 1 featured a number of potential breakout performances, which makes for an exhaustive list of pickup options this week. As such, play your FAAB a bit more conservatively this week because you will likely be able to fill your roster holes at running back and especially receiver with intriguing options even if you miss out on the top guys.

Ownership percentage are for ESPN/Yahoo/NFL.com.

Shallow Leagues

Players to Target

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
81.5%/93%/86.8%

Lamar Jackson was already owned in most leagues because of his rushing ability. If he maintained his pace as a starter in 2018 (79 rushing yards and 0.57 rushing touchdowns per game) over 16 games this year, he'd put up RB1-level totals of 1,271 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns. But his position-leading 121.4% passing DVOA performance on Sunday featured an 85.0% completion rate that was 24.8% better than his expected rate from NFL Next Gen Stats. The poor Dolphins roster may have skewed things, but Jackson is the rare quarterback who could swing your fantasy leagues. Do everything to get him if he's still available.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 100%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: Yes

Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills
78.0%/76%/56.3%

Devin Singletary took just four carries compared to Frank Gore's 11, but he was dramatically more productive with his limited opportunities. In fact, he produced 50 more DYAR than Gore, 33 to -23. Singletary looked decisive, like on this sharp lateral cut to break a 13-yard run.

And he looked elusive, stutter-stepping linebackers to the ground.

Singletary already figured to have more fantasy value than Gore because of his receiving ability -- he saw six targets in Week 1 -- but after his total performance, it's hard to envision him trailing Gore in workload for too long. Snag him in your fantasy leagues now before some RB2 performances increase his price.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 32%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
51.0%/79%/63.6%

Mark Andrews didn't have the best fantasy day among Lamar Jackson's targets, but he may have teased the most sustainable success with his eight targets, 32% of the team's non-running back total. Fellow tight ends Hayden Hurst and Nick Boyle added four and three targets, respectively, but Jackson relies more heavily on tight ends that most quarterbacks. Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Zach Ertz are the unimpeachable top three fantasy options at the position, but the Ravens' passing success vaults Andrews to my No. 4 spot.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 26%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

DeSean Jackson, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
71.5%/67%/75.4%

DeSean Jackson's boom-or-bust nature has traditionally made him a volatile fantasy option. As such, I don't want to get too carried away after a Week 1 where he caught two long touchdowns. But Jackson also led the Eagles with 10 targets, and quarterback Carson Wentz has been one of the most aggressive downfield throwers in football, airing it out 10 or more yards downfield 35.7% of his passes over the last two seasons. Only the probably-too-aggressive Jameis Winston has been higher among starters. Jackson is in the perfect situation for his skill set, and I think that is going to make his highs so high that you can overlook his lows and use him as a WR2.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 22%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Green Bay Packers
64.0%/66%/60.6%

Marquez Valdes-Scantling provided the Packers' lone offensive highlight with a 47-yard catch against the stout Bears defense on opening night. That's great, but the real reason to invest is that he saw six total targets compared to none for Geronimo Allison. Equanimeous St. Brown is out for the season with an ankle injury. That leaves Valdes-Scantling with a stranglehold on the Packers' second wide receiver job, which tends to have WR2 or flex value with Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 21%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Adrian Peterson, RB, Washington Redskins
27.7%/39%/37.2%

Adrian Peterson was a healthy scratch in favor of sophomore back Derrius Guice, but Guice suffered another knee injury in Week 1 after missing all of the 2018 season with a torn ACL. Peterson was a productive fantasy player with 251-1,042-7 on the ground and 20-208-1 through the air last season. He's 34 years old, but his decent -6.0% DVOA suggests he's still effective enough to hold down the early-down job while Guice is out.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 20%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Carlos Hyde, RB, Houston Texans
39.4%/33%/22.7%

Carlos Hyde has been with the Texans for all of one week, but he was already integrated in their game plan for Week 1. He barely out-carried teammate Duke Johnson 10 to nine but saw just one target compared to five for Johnson. I expect a similar split the rest of the season, and that offers Hyde some value even in shallow formats. Lamar Miller saw that sort of workload all season in 2018 and was a solid flex option.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 18%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Ronald Jones, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
40.6%/29%/32.0%

Second-round pick Ronald Jones was a major disappointment for the Buccaneers in 2018, carrying the ball just 23 times and doing so inefficiently with -24.3% DVOA. While Jameis Winston was throwing touchdowns to the 49ers on Sunday, Jones was the team's lone bright spot. He out-carried non-special veteran Peyton Barber 13 attempts to eight and had his best professional game with a 26.0% DVOA. The Buccaneers will have more opportunities to run the ball when their passing game performs better in future weeks. I'd like to have Jones on my roster to see how he does with more chances.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 15%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Delanie Walker, TE, Tennessee Titans
87.4%/85%/82.3%

Delanie Walker missed most of the 2018 season after he broke his ankle. It is a difficult injury for anyone to come back from, but I was especially worried for the 35-year-old tight end. Well, Walker showed no ill effects, snagging five of his six targets for 55 yards and two scores against the Browns, who were a top-10 DVOA defense against tight ends a year ago. That performance reestablished Walker as a TE1 at a thin position in fantasy.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 10%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Christian Kirk, WR, Arizona Cardinals
86.9%/88%/91.8%

Larry Fitzgerald is owned in a handful more leagues, but both Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk saw 12-plus targets against the Lions in Week 1. The Cardinals were imbalanced with 54 passes against just 23 rushes, but that could continue with an Air Raid coach in Kliff Kingsbury and a rebuilding roster that could put them down in a lot of games. Kirk was inefficient in this one with -60.0% receiving DVOA, but he flashed some serious after-the-catch skills on a critical third-down carry conversion.

He should be a flex option even in shallow formats.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 8%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
77.7%/55%/48.9%

Emmanuel Sanders is already owned in more than 90% of leagues -- and should be owned in all of them -- but Joe Flacco's Broncos played clear favorites with both Sanders and Courtland Sutton. Sutton led the team with eight targets, which he converted into 120 yards against the Raiders. DaeSean Hamilton saw just four targets.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 7%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Michael Gallup, WR, Dallas Cowboys
78.8%/70%/23.4%

I might take Michael Gallup over Kirk and Sutton if I were drafting for just skill. His 7-for-158 outburst against the Giants certainly supports that idea. But fantasy requires both skill and opportunity, and Gallup will be hard-pressed to match either Kirk or Sutton for target share. Even with his exceptional performance on Sunday, Gallup secured just 24 percent of the team's non-running back targets. Amari Cooper had nine, new slot man Randall Cobb had five, and even tight ends Jason Witten and Blake Jarwin combined for seven, often playing at the same time. And that says nothing of the fact that the Cowboys have been very run-focused in Dak Prescott's and Ezekiel Elliott's tenures. That wealth of talent is excellent for the Cowboys, but it will likely hurt Gallup's fantasy production this season.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 7%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Marquise Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens
28.2%/32%/8.6%

Marquise Brown looked awfully similar to DeSean Jackson, hauling in two touchdowns and 147 yards on his four receptions. That is incredible efficiency at 129.7% DVOA. But that was against the Dolphins, and Brown plays for what likely will be the run-heaviest team in football that throws most of their passes to tight ends. Brown saw just five targets on the day, but that was the same number as the Ravens' other wide receivers combined. Brown is a bit of a lottery ticket. He has the potential to become a fantasy WR1 if Lamar Jackson continues to throw the ball regularly and downfield. But he could also stall with a 40-catch kind of season. The shallower the league, the more interested I am in adding him to see what happens over the rest of September.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 7%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Jamison Crowder, WR, New York Jets
70.4%/47%/6.3%

Jamison Crowder flashed some serious PPR potential in Week 1, racking up 17 targets, 53% of the Jets throws to non-running backs. Only DeAndre Hopkins had a higher percentage of those targets for his team last week. But Crowder's total was likely inflated by the matchup against the Bills, who finished second in defensive DVOA and third in defensive pressure rate last season. Hopefully for Sam Darnold's sake, in future games the Jets will provide better pass protection and let him distribute the ball to more receivers. But I will still happily use Crowder as a PPR flex, at least until tight end Chris Herndon returns from his suspension.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 7%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Malcolm Brown, RB, Los Angeles Rams
6.5%/14%/1.7%

After Todd Gurley's end-of-season knee injuries and offseason reports that he will have to deal with arthritis in his knees for the rest of his career, the Rams' workload split became the fantasy story entering Week 1. Gurley ended up pacing the backfield with 14 carries, but he ceded 11 other carries to power back Malcolm Brown. Potentially more importantly for fantasy players, Brown took two of the team's carries within 5 yards of the end zone, Darrell Henderson took one, and Gurley took none. Brown didn't have a target and doesn't figure to be a major part of the passing game behind Gurley and his 470 career receiving DYAR and the receiving back Henderson. But the Rams trailed only the Saints with 28 carries from within 5 yards of the end zone last year and should be a leader again in 2019. Brown could do a fair imitation of LeGarrette Blount from his Patriots days and sneak into the back of the top 20 running backs for the season on the strength of 10-plus touchdowns.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 6%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Tyrell Williams, WR, Oakland Raiders
63.5%/64%/32.3%

I may be criminally underrating Tyrell Williams after he and tight end Darren Waller saw 28% and 32% of the Raiders' non-running back targets on Monday night. No other Raiders receiver surpassed 16%. Williams was productive on those chances, too, catching six of seven targets for 105 yards and a score and netting a 67.2% DVOA. But despite the success they had against last year's No. 5 DVOA defense, I'm nervous that the Raiders offense will struggle in future weeks with limited skill talent. That could hurt Williams if he receivers too much defensive attention or Derek Carr checks down too frequently to Josh Jacobs and Jalen Richard.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 5%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Darren Waller, TE, Oakland Raiders
26.8%/45%/10.2%

Darren Waller isn't a ridiculous choice to the be the Raiders No. 2 receiver given that his 4.46 speed looks more like a wide receiver's than a 6-foot-6, 255-pound tight end's. He can be exceptional if he maintains his 32% non-running back target share, but Waller still has just 25 catches to his name in a four-year career. I'll need to see a few more productive weeks before I throw him into my shallow-league lineups.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 4%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

John Ross, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
4.8%/12%/1.6%

John Ross was the biggest beneficiary of Andy Dalton's career-high 418 passing yards, taking 158 of those yards and two touchdowns. Dalton threw the ball 51 times, but Ross's 12 targets still accounted for an intriguing 28% of the team's non-running back targets. The former top-10 NFL draft pick has had a forgettable first two years of his career, but A.J. Green's extended absence could offer Ross a third chance to make good on his draft stock. He's worth a stash even in shallow formats.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 4%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Greg Olsen, TE, Carolina Panthers
67.3%/67%/55.8%

I would have felt as good about Greg Olsen's comeback as I did for Delanie Walker's following his nine-target day against the Rams. That was 35% of the team's non-running back targets, and preseason darling Curtis Samuel had just four. But Olsen is a question mark for Thursday's game with an apparent back injury. It's good that it's not the foot that caused him to miss time each of the last two seasons, but health has clearly become a problem for the veteran tight end.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 3%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
63.6%/38%/30.2%

On the run-heavy Seahawks and with more physical potential that polish, D.K. Metcalf figured to have a typical rookie receiver season lacking much fantasy value. But then on Sunday, he saw six targets that were half of the limited total Russell Wilson threw to his receivers and tight ends. It was a weird game against the Bengals, but Metcalf certainly showcased his natural ability on his opportunities.

Maybe he can immediately fill the target share the Seahawks lost in Doug Baldwin's retirement. I'm skeptical but would throw Metcalf on a deep bench to see.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 3%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Ito Smith, RB, Atlanta Falcons
9.5%/20%/20.3%

Ito Smith enjoyed a healthy 90 carries in his rookie season replacing the injured Devonta Freeman. It wasn't a given that he'd carve out a role in place of the departed Tevin Coleman this season, but the early returns from the Falcons' loss to the Vikings were positive for his fantasy potential. Smith is small at 5-foot-9 and 195 pounds and makes more sense as a pairing with the powerful Freeman than he did with the excellent receiver Coleman. Smith had just one target in Week 1, but he had 32 last year and took all six of his carries on Sunday with the passing team on the field, down more than two scores. The Falcons should bounce back after that difficult road matchup to offer both Smith and Freeman more opportunities in future weeks. Smith may not have Coleman's talent, but he could inherit his former flex value with his role in this offense. He'll probably be more consistent than Malcolm Brown and should come cheaper after a quiet Week 1.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 2%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Players to Avoid

LeSean McCoy, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
83.7%/79%/93.2%

Former Andy Reid favorite LeSean McCoy didn't need too long to acquaint to his new surroundings in Kansas City. He easily led the team with 81 rushing yards on 10 carries and looked good doing it with 44.3% DVOA. But I wouldn't panic if I owned Damien Williams. Only five of McCoy's 10 carries came with the game within two scores, while 10 of Williams' 13 did. Williams also took the team's only carry within 5 yards of the end zone; he scored from 1 yard out. He is the clear starter. McCoy probably will get some work when the Chiefs blow out future opponents, but that makes him a deep-league matchup play and shallow-league handcuff.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 2%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Donte Moncrief, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
68.8%/67%/49.9%

Donte Moncrief put up a gaudy total of 10 targets in Week 1, which might pique your interests on a team with 168 targets to replace from a departed Antonio Brown. But Moncrief's raw target total is deceptive because the Steelers trailed big all game. They were only 24 percent of the team's non-running back total; receivers Ryan Switzer and James Washington had six and Diontae Johnson had five. Moncrief was not productive with a -108.6% DVOA. I don't think this game clarified how the Steelers will distribute their future targets.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 2%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Jimmy Graham, TE, Green Bay Packers
47.6%/48%/26.7%

Jimmy Graham saw both of the Packers' end zone targets last Thursday and came down with one for the team's only touchdown. Graham hasn't stopped being big, but he has long since lost the speed that made him one of the best fantasy tight ends. He was below average with -6.6% DVOA last season and should expect another middling season of around 600 receiving yards.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
32.3%/15%/2.3%

Giovani Bernard may have a week as the Bengals' top running back, but Joe Mixon's MRI showed he avoided a serious ankle injury. Mixon could return as soon as this week against the 49ers. That makes Bernard a one-week streamer at best.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Players You Can Drop

Jordan Howard, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Peyton Barber, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Nyheim Hines, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Derrius Guice, RB, Washington Redskins
Darrell Henderson, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Mike Davis, RB, Chicago Bears
Damien Harris, RB, New England Patriots
Demaryius Thomas, WR, New England Patriots
Geronimo Allison, WR, Green Bay Packers
Robert Foster, WR, Buffalo Bills
DaeSean Hamilton, WR, Denver Broncos

Deep Leagues

Players to Target

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Redskins
7.3%/6%/0.9%

Rookie Terry McLaurin was one of four Redskins receivers with six or seven targets against the Eagles on Sunday. All of them have some fantasy potential, but McLaurin has the best upside and therefore deserves the highest FAAB bid in deeper formats.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 28%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Gus Edwards, RB, Baltimore Ravens
3.4%/3%/0.9%

I would say that the Ravens' dominant victory over the Dolphins led to a lot of extra carries, but their 46 carries on Sunday were just four more than their average from 2018 with Lamar Jackson at quarterback. I expect that weekly average to fall over the rest of this season with how tremendous Jackson looked as a passer, but Gus Edwards should remain a major part of the team's rushing efforts. He out-carried teammate Mark Ingram 17 carries to 14 and had the same number -- three -- while the game was within two scores. Edwards failed to score, but he took three carries within 5 yards of the end zone, one more than Ingram, who scored twice. Edwards wasn't efficient with -26.9% DVOA on the day, but he was last year with 5.2 yards per carry with a 13.9% DVOA. The Ravens will get there very differently, but their offense should support multiple productive fantasy backs like Ingram's former team, the Saints.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 24%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Danny Amendola, WR, Detroit Lions
3.4%/7%/4.2%

Rookie running back Ty Johnson seemed like a natural heir to Theo Riddick's vacated 74 targets, but he played just eight snaps in his first career game. Instead, it was new slot receiver Danny Amendola who impressed with 13 targets, 34% of the team's non-running back total. He, Kenny Golladay, and T.J. Hockensen each had nine or more targets; no other Lions receiver had more than four.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 20%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

John Brown, WR, Buffalo Bills
35.3%/51%/5.4%

Like Tyrell Williams, John Brown emerged in Week 1 as his team's clear No. 1 wide receiver. He saw 10 targets against the Jets which he converted to seven catches, 123 yards, and a score. His downfield tendencies make him a great fit for the big-armed, aggressive Josh Allen, and Allen generally looked much more capable in Week 1 than in most of last season. But this still isn't the perfect fantasy situation for Brown. Allen has carried the ball more than eight times per game in his career and frequently punches the ball in when they approach the end zone. That means Brown may have to rely on big catches to score, and that makes him more of a deep-league option than a flex consideration in 10-team leagues.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 18%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Cole Beasley, WR, Buffalo Bills
24.1%/6%/5.7%

Not to be outdone, slot receiver Cole Beasley added his own nine targets and established a clear pecking order for the Bills. Last year's fantasy darling Robert Foster wasn't targeted. Brown and Beasley are who you want in deeper formats.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 12%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins
10.6%/14%/1.7%

After DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, and Preston Williams paced the Dolphins with seven, six, and five respective targets, I developed a theory that Ryan Fitzpatrick likes to throw the ball up for grabs to big receivers. Parker is 6-foot-3 and 216 pounds.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 8%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
20.5%/32%/24.2%

Allen maintained fantasy value in 2018 thanks to 631 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns, but his passing looked much improved in the opener against the Jets. According to Next Gen Stats, he threw just 2.3% fewer completions than expected given the nature of his targets, up from his 7.7% deficit last season. And some of his incompletions were his best throws of the day, showing off the touch he tended to lack a year ago.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 7%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Trey Quinn, WR, Washington Redskins
3.5%/1%/0.3%

Trey Quinn is the second of four Redskins receivers who saw six or seven targets against the Eagles. I give him a slight edge over Paul Richardson because he mans the slot, which differentiates him from Richardson and McLaurin, who will have to fight with each other for targets.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 5%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Paul Richardson, WR, Washington Redskins
18.3%/2%/0.3%

That said, Paul Richardson is still the veteran presence among the Redskins wide receiver group. They gave him $16.5 million guaranteed just a year ago, and it's possible he will bounce back in 2019 after a shoulder injury cost him the bulk of last season.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 5%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Mike Gesicki, TE, Miami Dolphins
2.4%/3%/0.7%

And rounding out the Fitzpatrick theory, Mike Gesicki is 6-foot-6 and 250 pounds. He was also a second-round pick in 2018. One year is too quick to give up on his potential.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 5%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Detroit Lions
30.0%/53%/17.8%

Rookie tight ends are notoriously bad fantasy options, but Hockenson was the most gifted in the class and saw an impressive nine targets in his debut. His blocking could keep him on the field.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 5%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Noah Fant, TE, Denver Broncos
10.0%/14%/4.8%

Hockenson's former Iowa teammate Noah Fant was the clear second tight end choice in the 2019 draft. He's a receiver first and was one of only four Broncos wideouts and tight ends who saw targets on Monday night.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 4%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnati Bengals
12.0%/9%/14.3%

Tyler Eifert has missed the better part of the last five seasons with myriad injuries, the most recent of which was a gruesome leg injury that limited him to four games in 2018. He is back and looked healthy in Week 1, seeing six targets against five for fellow tight end C.J. Uzomah. If he can stay on the field, Eifert should end up with the lion's share of the Bengals' tight end targets and reestablish himself as a TE2.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 4%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Gardner Minshew, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
0.0%/1%/0.1%

Sixth-round rookie Gardner Minshew was forced into action in his first week in the NFL after Nick Foles broke his collarbone. Facing a Chiefs team that effortlessly dropped 40 points on Football Outsiders' No. 1 projected DVOA defense, Minshew was in a tough spot. But he performed admirably, completing 16.2% more passes than expected. It's easy to write off the performance since much of it came in garbage time, but the Chief's porous defense has been much worse, allowing 15% more yards per rushing attempt and just 5% more yards per pass attempt than an average team. Minshew may have to compete with Josh Dobbs (whom the team acquired from the Steelers as a backup once Foles went to IR), but deeper league and especially dynasty league players should err on the side of optimism with promising rookie quarterbacks who could pay dividends for years if they work out.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 2%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Preston Williams, WR, Miami Dolphins
2.6%/2%/0.5%

Continuing my "Ryan Fitzpatrick loves big receivers" theory, rookie Preston Williams is 6-foot-5 and 218 pounds. He saw two end zone targets in his first career game. I love him in dynasty leagues, but it may be tough for him to consistently produce in fantasy this season.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Deon Cain, WR, Indianapolis Colts
1.1%/0%/0.1%

Devin Funchess had five targets in the Colts' heartbreaking loss to the Chargers, but broke his clavicle and is now on injured reserve. That elevates top Football Outsiders prospect Deon Cain to the No. 2 job. It isn't quite as appealing as it would have been with Andrew Luck under center, but Cain could still have deep-league flex value in his best weeks.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Players to Avoid

KeeSean Johnson, WR, Arizona Cardinals
8.9%/2%/0.2%

KeeSean Johnson was one of the receiver leaders across football with 10 targets this week, but was just 22% of the team's non-running back total. He was inefficient with a -52.1% DVOA on those looks, and even though he has surpassed the higher-drafted Andy Isabella on their depth chart, Michael Crabtree will likely take his spot in Week 2.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

DJ Chark, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
11.8%/3%/0.2%

DJ Chark had an exceptional fantasy day on Sunday with 146 yards and a score, but that came on just four targets with the Jaguars desperate to match the explosive Chiefs point for point. With a sixth-round rookie under center, it may be a stretch to trust a second receiver in the Jaguars offense in fantasy behind Dede Westbrook.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Chris Conley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
8.8%/1%/0.2%

It's the same story for Chris Conley as it was for Chark. He impressed with six catches, 97 yards, and a touchdown in Week 1, but may have some fantasy duds when the Jaguars can better commit to the run in future weeks.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Rex Burkhead, RB, New England Patriots
2.1%/6%/1.6%

Rex Burkhead seemed like a possible cut candidate after the team added another weapon to an already loaded backfield in third-round rookie Damien Harris. But Harris was a healthy scratch in Week 1, and that left Burkhead with 13 total touches and a backfield-leading 85 yards from scrimmage against the Steelers. Don't expect that to continue. Just two of Burkhead's eight carries and two of his eight targets came when the game was within two scores. He offers more offensive flexibility than either runner Sony Michel or receiver James White, but he will likely recede to a situational role when the Patriots play more competitive opponents and have their full complement of wide receivers.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Tre'Quan Smith, WR, New Orleans Saints
8.1%/17%/2.7%

Former third-round receiver Tre'Quan Smith caught a touchdown on Monday night on the Saints' lone end zone target, but he had just two total targets on the day. Ted Ginn had seven. Smith still has the potential that makes him a deep-league sleeper (love his Playmaker Score pedigree), but his touchdown-buoyed decent fantasy week doesn't move the needle for my interest in adding him just yet.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Phillip Dorsett, WR, New England Patriots
0.6%/4%/1.0%

With 95 yards and two touchdowns, Phillip Dorsett enjoyed the best fantasy day in the Patriots' smooshing of the Steelers. But that came on just 18% of the team's non-running back targets, and he will likely step back from even that workload with Antonio Brown set to join the team next week.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Players You Can Drop

Nick Foles, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Ty Johnson, RB, Detroit Lions
Devin Funchess, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Albert Wilson, WR, Miami Dolphins
Andy Isabella, WR, Arizona Cardinals

Comments

7 comments, Last at 11 Sep 2019, 8:53am

1 Devin Singletary was on the…

Devin Singletary was on the field for 70% of the Bills' offensive snaps (compared to 28% for Gore), so the 4 carries was really just a side-effect of the pass-wacky first half offense the Bills ran. His actual snap count bodes well for FF production going forward.

2 Raheem Mostert

Surprised to not see him on the list, at least for the Deep Leagues section. Stands to benefit the most from the multiple week Tevin Coleman injury.

5 Waiver

Great thorough analysis!

I have the #1 waiver in a two QB league. What do you think of Case Keenum's outlook to have a respectable season in Washington? My #2 QB is Garappolo and I need some insurance.

Otherwise, I was thinking of grabbing Malcolm Brown and then try to snag Minshew off waivers if still around.

7 Re: Keenum

I probably missed the window to help you with this, but I think Keenum can be fine as long as he plays.  But I'd expect Haskins to be playing by Week 11 or so.

6 Call me cynical, but I'm…

Call me cynical, but I'm betting that at the end of the year, all this talk of the "new and improved" Ravens passing game will turn out to be nothing more than a massive overreaction to them running up the score against a tanking joke of a team.