Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Week 5 Open Discussion Thread

Week 5 kicks off with a doozy as the 3-1 Rams visit Seattle to play the 3-1 Seahawks on Thursday night. Loser risks falling a game and a half back of San Francisco in the division, pending the undefeated 49ers hosting the 2-2 Browns on Monday night. In between, you've got Jags-Panthers, Bucs-Saints, Bears-Raiders, Packers-Cowboys, and Colts-Chiefs on Sunday night. Plus, a battle of winless teams between Arizona and Cincinnati that will be critical for draft positioning. Use this thread to discuss them all.  

Comments

143 comments, Last at 07 Oct 2019, 10:42pm

1 That Wilson to Lockett TD…

That Wilson to Lockett TD pass was something else! Wonder that the percentage odds are of a completion, say if they threw that 1000 times?

2 Stat padding

I think Wilson is the league leader on the delta between expected completion percentage and actual completed percentage. If memory serves, there's a version of the stat based on distance downfield and a version based on each players' location, and he's tops in both.

3 The Skycam tracking shot of…

The Skycam tracking shot of Metcalf's touchdown there was funny - you didn't even see a defender until the ball was just about in his hands, 50 yards downfield.

4 Seattle lines up to go for…

Seattle lines up to go for it on 4th-and-1 around the Rams 30 inside of 2 minutes. But no, it's the NFL's most annoying coach's call, the old try-to-draw-them-offsides-then-call-a-timeout.

Suitably, the ensuing FG attempt is missed. And then, even better, the Rams march downfield and get a TD with 6 seconds left in the half to turn an 8 point deficit into a 1 point deficit at intermission.

Oh how I wish this exact sequence would play out every single time the try-to-draw-them-offsides tactic is rolled out.

77 Yes, as a seemingly cost…

Yes, as a seemingly cost-free option, even a miniscule chance of success makes it seem reasonable to some coaches.  Doesn't make it any less annoying, though, which is why I celebrate any sequence of negative events that follow the tactic (even if there's no causality between the tactic and the negative events, it still feel cathartic to witness the subsequent debacle).

5 Missed FG by Seattle leads…

Missed FG by Seattle leads to a quick drive by the Rams, aided by a somewhat questionable roughing penalty on Ziggy Ansah (looked to me like he was diving more toward the thighs than knees, but I guess that's potato potato). Seattle defense plays to keep the defenders in front of them, 5 yards deep in the endzone - TD Kupp.

Don't really understand kicking the extra point down 2 there. I guess Schottenheimer gonna Schottenheimer.

6 Since the game conversation…

Since the game conversation is slow tonight, seems like a reasonable place to put this... Former FOan Andy Benoit got let go in Sports Illustrated bloodbath today :(

9 So sorry to hear it. Here's…

So sorry to hear it. Here's hoping he lands on his feet.

The slow demise of SI has been so sad. I used to love that magazine. I still (re)read their old features all the time. They just kept making bad decisions (most notably, never fixing their nigh-unusable website).

7 Oof, now the Rams go for 2…

Oof, now the Rams go for 2 up 5, some sort of QB keeper option, Goff is clearly tackled just short (original call notwithstanding) upon review.

On the ensuing possession, Wilson runs a little (improvised?) option with the TE, pitches then fakes like he's going to block before sliding. Defender was not fooled. I get preserving the health of the multibajillion dollar franchise player, but the '90s Packer fan in me just keeps saying, "Favre would've hit that guy" lol.

10 Scary play by Cooks, who…

Scary play by Cooks, who makes a nice catch but in holding on against an aggressive defender wasn't able to use his arms to brace himself and essentially landed directly on his own head.

Insult to injury, 'hawks are challenging that he committed OPI. (No) Call stands. Surrre looked to me like he did, even in real time, but I guess I'm glad they're establishing a really high standard for overturning no/PI. But at this point, the NO-LAR play was less obvious than that one and so probably wouldn't get overturned, and that's what started this whole ordeal. It's almost like making a judgement call reviewable wasn't a good idea, or something.

23 Uh? On what planet was the…

Uh? On what planet was the NO-LAR play less obvious. NO-LAR had a defender, Robey-Coleman, outright tackle a receiver without looking for the ball, and a full beat before the ball got there. You can find 20 plays every week just like the Cooks play with receivers and CB's handfighting.

36 I will agree, though, that…

I will agree, though, that it's the NFC Championship game error level that they seem to be aiming at for PI challenges.  As you say, the Cooks play last night was borderline, judgement call territory, and I'm glad these generally aren't getting overturned.

40 I completely agree that the…

I completely agree that the replay system has been totally capricious up until this point. Seattle was the beneficiary of a very surprising overturn against Cincy, which wasn't much more obvious than this one, that they lost. Meanwhile, I remember watching an Eagles defender borderline tackle the green bay receiver with no call. 

12 Brian Schottenheimer of all…

Brian Schottenheimer of all people suddenly begins playcalling with a true 4 down mentality, calling a run on 3rd and goal from the 10 to get some yards and set up a manageable 4th and goal. Wilson improvises, starts to run before making a nice little toss to Carson who nearly drops it he was so wide open.

13 I wish the silly challenge…

I wish the silly challenge system didn't exist at all, and everything simply came down from the booth, as it does during the last two minutes. It would've been very silly for Seattle to not get that interception if they had happened to be out of timeouts or challenges. Coaches also sometimes waste our time with pointless challenges on plays that are obviously not going to be overturned.

14 Thompson makes a fantastic…

Thompson makes a fantastic shoestring interception on a tipped ball.

Ensuing drive, 3rd and 2 after a couple of runs, Wilson tries to run and looks like he isn't going to make it, so he pitches backwards to a teammate. Horrendous, Winstonesque decision that only loses 5 yards, the least-bad outcome there. Decent punt pins the Rams around their own 10, but they're on the move with a bunch of no-huddle dink-and-dunk.

17 When that kick was in the…

When that kick was in the air I thought it had a chance to hit the upright. It barely missed, in any case.

18 Jared Goff has another…

Jared Goff has another massive yardage day in a loss. He's now over 900 yards in the past two games. I wouldn't be surprised if no one has had more yards over two games, and his team didn't win once.

29 I'm surprised there are that…

I'm surprised there are that many QBs who managed to lose two games in those circumstances. Obviously you can end up throwing for tons of yards if your team is behind, but most 500-yard games have come in winning efforts. Phil Simms doing it is pretty crazy considering how different offense was in that era. I looked it up and he achieved that feat in 1985... and still failed to break 4000 yards on the season.

19 Oof. Rams miss the FG by…

Oof. Rams miss the FG by about 3 inches, 'hawks win a squeaker on a squeaker.

Really evenly-played game overall. Some great plays and some bad mistakes on both sides.

Wilson had a 151 rating, 4 TDs, no picks, 1 sack, 268 yards... on 23 attempts. Compared to 43 (forty-three!) runs (although 8 of those were Wilson). I guess it worked, technically, but they should've lost, and that disparity would've been reason #1.

20 The rams problems the last 2…

The rams problems the last 2 weeks are defense related. Too many missed tackles and let Wilson scramble instead of sacking him.

24 Even in this era of offense,…

Even in this era of offense, if you score 40 points (33 on offense), and 29 points, you should go 2-0 over that stretch, instead of 0-2. Still, as a rams fan it's actually the best game they played all year, in my opinion. 

34 QB Contain

It's absolutely exasperating to watch your team play Wilson and have him slip away like that - it's hard to imagine for that it's actually repeatable but he's certainly shown that it is. I do think without doubt it represents a failure of the Rams pass rushers that all night they were giving up lane integrity to get a one-handed shot at the QB - it looked a bit like they didn't pay nearly enough attention to the scouting report.

39 Bernie

Ahh, the last shining Bernie Kosar year (although not for team success) before the diminishing skills era. Early Bernie was a ton of fun to watch, I would be interested to hear how the FO crowd sees 1980s football, looking back some time. 

42 Patriots Schedule

The Patriots will hold the Redskins to under 10 points this afternoon. Is anyone going to challenge them before Week 9? Probably not - It's like a free pass for Brady and company.

46 CHI-OAK

Raiders with a decent opening drive but after they get stopped on 3rd down Incognito takes a dumbass personal foul that takes them out of FG range.

47 Some strange and irritating…

Some strange and irritating scheduling decisions by the NFL today. We have ten early games and just two late games. It's already frustrating when the split is something like 8-4, but 10-2 is just absurd. In TV land a large portion of the country is being shown the Patriots-Redskins game. NE is 16.5 point favorites in that game. Who wants to watch what will likely be a boring blowout? I would rank that game one of the worst of the ten available.