Week 13 Open Game Discussion

CLE at PIT will be a verrrry interesting game, playoff wise but also in regards what happened only two weeks ago.

Ravens 26, 49ers 17
Panthers 23, Squirrels 14
Jets 31, Bengaks 20
Colts 31, Yitans 24
Bucca eers 37, Jagyars 31
Sywelwrs 24, Brpwns 20
Eagles 25, Dolphins 24
Packers 35, Giants 17
Rams 27, Cardinals 24
Chargers 34, Broncos 20
Raiders 35, Chiefs 28
Texabs 27, patripts 20
Seahawks 29, Vikings 24

Ravens 34, 49ers 23
Panthers 23, Squirrels 13
Jets 30, Bengaks 20
Colts 23, Yitans 16
Bucca eers 34, Jagyars 23
Steelers 27, Brpwns 20
Eagles 30, Dolphins 17
Packers 34, Giants 13
Rams 23, Cardinals 27
Chargers 27, Broncos 13
Raiders 27, Chiefs 38
Texabs 23, patripts 20
Seahawks 23, Vikings 30

Nick Foles had three turnovers in the first half and has now been benched for Gardner Minshew. What a bizarre career Foles has had. The Jags should probably try and trade him this off season, even if they can only get very little in return. They aren't a strong team and have no reason to be in win-now mode. Since Foles doesn't seem to be much better than Minshew no reason to stick with the older guy over the rookie. Foles' stock may have dropped this season but if I were a team like the Bears I would still be very interested in trading for him.

Missed the first half of GB-NYG, other than a couple highlights of nice throws. So far these teams have played about equally (un)well, which isn't a great sign considering one dreams/delusions of a deep postseason run and the other is starting a rebuild under a rookie QB who hasn't exactly set the world on fire... snow can be an equalizer, but other than slowing the field conditions don't seem to be too bad.

Rodgers has missed some reads and some throws. I'm sure the ball is hard to grip in the weather, and I hate arm-chair psychology, but he really does seem... some combination of frustrated and checked out. They just had a miscommunication on a WR screen where both plausible targets turned upfield; I'm sure that kind of thing drives him nuts at this point, and he's got a voice in his head saying "Jordy Nelson would never do that," but that was Adams and Lazard, supposedly his guys... maybe LaFleur needs to make a dramatic "Jordy Nelson is not walking through that door" speech.

Although just as I type that he digs into his magic football bag and pulls out an awesome 4th and 10 conversion deep down field as he's being hit. He's still capable of it, it just doesn't seem to happen quite as often.

Glancing through the other scores... BAL-SF looks like a classic and I'm annoyed this game is close so I can't switch over (stupid fandom). The Jets are getting moderately crushed by the Bengals lol; looks like they just gave up a safety on a hold in the end zone, and Darnold's averaging like 5 yards a pass. Knowing nothing I'm just going to assume that's a lot of bad playcalling by Gase; Darnold's issues typically don't have to do with not forcing the ball downfield. Browns were playing the Steelers tough but apparently Mayfield had a hand injury... he's still playing but maybe shouldn't be? He had some sort of arm/elbow issue a few weeks ago but came back, not sure if this is related. I get that they're technically in playoff contention, but come on, with that line they're just playing for the right to get stomped in the Wild Card round, maybe don't mortgage your supposed franchise QB's future for it in year 2 mmkay?

Rodgers just pulled a Rodgers and hit a beautiful TD throw against the Giants' 12 defenders... right after a TD run by Jones was called back for holding. Atlas' curse wasn't to hold the heavens above the earth, it was being capable of doing so in the first place.

This has not been a good week for NFC East DVOA darlings. We all saw what the Cowboys did three days ago. Now the 9th-ranked Eagles are struggling to put away Miami. Maybe we can see someone win this division without a winning record while remaining top 10 in DVOA.

The zero-win Bengals are winning in a blowout. The two-win Redskins have a lead. Two-win Miami is driving with a chance to take a lead. No one wants that top pick.

Steelers lose a challenge, challenging that a Browns player touched a punt with his knee at the 1 while touching the goal line with his hands. They were totally right, and yet did not get an overturn for no apparent reason.

Who are these redskins and how are they beating the Panthers?

Wow, the Redskins are up 29-14 after being down by 14 early. Miami is up by multiple scores now as well. Some of the NFL's worst in Washington, Miami, and Cincinnati are having great days.

Break up the Bengals!

EDIT: apparently the Jets are the first team to lose to two teams that were 0-7 or worse going into the matchup

Panthers fail on 4th and goal, so redskins will hang on to win.

For those of you wondering how on earth Washington won today, it was mostly by winning at the line of scrimmage.

The Washington offensive line was dominant run-blocking against a banged-up Carolina front four that was missing a couple of their regulars in the middle. Guice ended up with over 100 yards, and Peterson came very close to that mark. Their numbers were inflated by a few big runs, but there were a number of 4-9 yard gains as well. Washington also committed far fewer offensive penalties than they have for much of the season.

On the other side of the ball, Washington again won at the line, and in particular got good pressure on Kyle Allen. The Panthers have had a couple injures and have been forced to shuffle their o-line, which makes that outcome somewhat expected. But Washington was doing it without Ryan Kerrigan (first missed game of his career), and for much of the game, without their next two edge defenders: Ryan Anderson was ejected for a helmet-to-helmet hit on Greg Olsen, and Montez Sweat left the game with an injury. For much of the second half, two street free agents were playing a ton of snaps on the edge and were producing well.

Carolina also made a few unforced errors on offense, most notably a play where Allen overthrew Curtis Samuel, who had no defenders without the same zip code, and a chance to score a ~70-yard TD virtually uncontested. The other unforced errors were some drops and plays where Allen missed blown coverages by Washington.

In short, this looked very much like a game between two teams with losing records

Rams up big at the half...Goff with 323 passing yards and the rams at nearly 400 yards offense. Goff needs 232 yards in the 2nd half to break the single game record.

Based on first half stats it looks like the Rams could get Goff the single game passing yardage record today if they wanted to. Too big of a lead for that to be likely though.

Raiders have a 189-127 advantage in yardage. They also trail 21-0.

Well, Goff is back: over 320 yards passing at the half. Turns out it's easier to succeed against bad defenses than good ones. Who knew?

In all seriousness, the Cardinals defense is bad, but he's made some nice, not-easy throws, especially rolling in both directions. He's really talented, just... unusually easy to knock off his game for whatever reason.

PI overturn alert: a tipped interception on the field was turned into a penalty after a booth review. The defender was holding onto Fitzgerald's arm with both hands so it's about as clearcut as they come, but it's still news, given the way things have played out so far.

Whoa! Woods gets a screen that's read well and about to get blown up, decides to basically turn it into an end-around reverse running all the way through (what had been) the backfield and around the other side of the defense, where he's sprung by a pancake block by Goff (!!!) and goes about 50 yards. That's one for the ages.

Goff immediately follows it with a Brady special deep pass to no one, called intentional grounding after some discussion.

The Chiefs are handling the Raiders, but Mahomes looks a lot scrappier than we are accustomed to. He's consistently taking absurdly deep drops, and is extremely lucky not to have been intercepted once or twice after throwing off-balance jump balls to the middle of the field. The Patriots defense next week might not be as understanding as the Raiders have been tonight.

Murray's intercepted as he fails to notice the CB sitting underneath, gets taken to the house. This one's over, although Goff's got a realistic shot at the single-game record if they keep passing (they shouldn't, though).

You know, if the Rams win out... if... that would leave them at 11-5 and hand Seattle and San Francisco each a loss.

Seattle also has to host Minnesota tomorrow and the Niners in week 17, both potential losses (assuming for the moment that SF doesn't rest their starters), which would tie them by record; not sure how tiebreakers would shake out, but that at least gives them a chance (and Seattle also has to play the Panthers and Cardinals, neither of whom are gimmes).

The Niners are almost certainly going to the playoffs, but their late schedule is also nasty (have to go at New Orleans and Seattle, plus host the Falcons, and the Rams game that we're calling a loss here); it's not unthinkable that they finish 11-5 as well (or even 10-6 if the Week 9 Falcons show up).

I also wouldn't rule out two or more upcoming losses for the Vikings (who have to go to Seattle and host the Packers, plus have lose-able games at the Chargers and against the Bears) or the Packers (who have to go to Minnesota, plus host the Bears [who are in a similar position to the Niners], and also have to go to Detroit, who've ruled those late-season rivalry games lately).

Of course their own schedule is the nastiest of all (host Seattle, at Dallas, at San Francisco, then finish with the Cardinals at home). But while they don't exactly control their own destiny, they can set themselves up pretty well for a Wild Card if they take care of business going forward. And neither Green Bay nor Dallas, the likely WC Round opponents, looks unbeatable...

Good grief. Chargers, down 20-17, had 3rd and 11, got about 10, it's 4th and 1, they line up to go for it then call time out (they had 3 so they plausibly could've punted, although I like the decision to go for it). Out of the timeout, Denver takes a look at the formation then calls timeout themselves. Out of THAT timeout, the Chargers run a pitch (odd play call IMO) but Gordon makes it happen, dancing for the 1st and possibly more... except apparently there was a false start. Just a brutal waste of everyone's time. But there's a Denver injury (Wolfe) so essentially another timeout, then on 4th and 6 the Denver lineman jumps massively offsides, inducing the Chargers lineman to move - except it's called false start, because the Denver lineman was so wide it technically wasn't a NZI and the offensive lineman couldn't be "induced" to false start, apparently? (Did not know that rule) Just a massively irritating sequence.

Then on 4th and 11 Rivers heaves a bomb that's caught inside field goal range (absolutely fantastic catch by Mike Williams). Whatever works, I guess.

UPDATE: They hit the field goal, tied 20-20.

Announcers are sure Denver is going to take the knee with 8 seconds left. Instead, Lock heaves a bomb waaayyyy down the sideline, and they get a PI call on Heyward at about the 40. IMVHO that was definitely interference, Heyward adjusted his path from the shortest to the ball in order to hit the receiver before the pass got there, but it was certainly questionable.

Denver hits the field goal (first attempt was a bank shot that went through off the upright, but Lynn "iced" him), and they have the same record as the Chargers now.

Just a weird end of that game.

Noting that I did not see the play in the Broncos Chargers game, but in general I absolutely despise the "fling the ball way downfield and hope for an interference call" play. Unless the defender manhandles the "intended receiver" (hooray for scare quotes) in an obviously intentional way, I think the official should not call it--or perhaps some semi-bogus call like 'illegal contact' or 'defensive holding' that results in a 5 or 15 yard mark off from the line of scrimmage rather than a spot of the foul penalty. Too often, both players are staggering around as if inebriated (albeit at high speed), both are trying to locate a ball descending at a somewhat random location from a great height, and some contact is inevitable. To reward the offense so generously for a haphazard occurrence just doesn't seem right.

Texa INT wiped out by a defensive holding call that was actually a hold by the receiver. Typical NFL-baked penalty call because we know the Pats are supposed to win, right?

Nothing about pats-texans? Pats go for it on 4th and short, instead of a sneak, they throw, and its incomplete!

Robert Woods went for 172 yards today in the Rams win over the Cardinals, putting him at 835 yards on the season, and no touchdowns. Does anyone know what the record for most receiving yards in a season without a touchdown is? We have to be pretty close to a record already.

Takes an opponent injury to get a flagrant OPI call against Edelman.

LOL Pats down by 12 at end of Q3 line up to go for 2, which I think is the right call. But Brady just looks at the defence, decides it's not the look he wants and takes a delay of game.

Kicker then promptly misses the extra point on a kick that would have been good 5 yards closer.

Belichick talking The Art of War in an all-too-brief clip. Would love to know if it's just a surface appreciation or if he actually studied it.

Best designed play of the year (that I've seen) run by Houston. Watson hands off to Johnson hands off to Hopkins coming the other hand who tosses to Watson for the TD. Hopkins toss looked to be an attempted lateral that went forward, but he was still behind the line of scrimmage so it's a TD pass Hopkins to Watson!

Down by three scores with half a quarter to play the Patriots don't seem to be in a huge hurry.

More garbage time TD for Brady. Just not usually the garbage time TDs he’s used to.

The offense continues to sputter. It's been like that all season long. Defense a bit disappointing, but I'd have to question some of the choices.

And, oh yeah, lots of players were physically ill.

At least James White had a good night.

All of a sudden, onside kick recoveries are possible again. Not only does Bolden almost come down with that one for NE, he looks to have a clear run to the end zone if he does.

The Texans deserved this win, no matter what Massholes think. They should have gotten their flu shots.

The Patriots actually finished that game with a massive advantage in yardage (448-276) and first downs (29-16), along with a slight advantage in yards per play (5.7-5.3). DVOA loves steady gains so I wonder if it won't have a very different take on this game than the average observer.

Gosh, if that Watson ever improves his velocity, he might turn out to be a decent qb.

I get that I'm an old crank but NO ONE watched/commented on the Niners/Ravens game? That strikes me as quite odd given it was THE matchup of the day. *shrugs shoulders*

FWIW, I was not disappointed to lose on a last-second FG to the Ravens. I was worried about a Jackson running roughshod over SF. Would love to get a chance to see them play again in good weather.

It hasn't taken long for the refs to forget about the "no landing with your body weight on the QB" penalty that was all the rage last year. Third play of scrimmage for Minnesota and a Seahawk LB tackled Cousins in the act of throwing (which was not a penalty) and landed with his full body weight on him (which I was told many times last year was a penalty).

Nothing much to say about this MNF game. Just a good, tough game. But Booger McFarland has at times been almost Romo-esque.

And as I type that, I see one of the weirdest deflections for a pick 6 I've ever seen.

Seattle is completely owning this 3rd quarter.

Vikings blow a coverage and Wilson makes them pay with a 60 yd bomb. Expect the Vikings D to see a lot of Carson and Penny from here on out.

Seattle has outscored Minnesota 24-0 in the second half. Mostly pounding the ball down the Vikings throats and then throwing deep.

And then McDougald commits Pete Carrolls greatest sin for a safety. He lets someone get behind him. Cousins capitalizes on a 58 yd bomb of his own.

Fake punt! Seahawks keep it!

Hmmm, what was the analytics on THAT play? I liked it, but man, that was risky.

Rookie's third fumble has allowed Minnesota to claw back into this game. And then they blow the PAT.

Minny gets the ball down 4, 3:27 left.

I believe this site as well as other Football analytics sources, preach that close game wins are unsustainable over a long portion of time. That teams will ultimately regress to the mean, much like fumble recoveries.

So how long does Seattle need to continue this run over the last two years before that premise needs to be reevaluated?

Wilson becomes the winningest QB in MNF history and Cousins becomes the only QB in MNF history to go 0-8.

So refreshing to watch a game with almost no penalties (1-30 for Seatlle, 3-30 for Minnesota). Sure, they missed some calls, but the game flow was so much better without all the flags.