Week 17 Quick Reads

With the 2019 regular season over, it's time to look back at the best and worst games of the year, with full-strength final opponent adjustments. Later this week, I'll be back with a rundown of the best and worst players of the season by DYAR, rather than analysis of Week 17.
Quarterbacks
Best Games
- Deshaun Watson, Week 5 vs. ATL, 295 DYAR
- Drew Brees, Week 14 vs. SF, 291 DYAR
- Aaron Rodgers, Week 7 vs. OAK, 255 DYAR
- Dak Prescott, Week 1 vs. NYG, 250 DYAR
- Dak Prescott, Week 10 vs. MIN, 245 DYAR
The Week 5 game game between Houston and Atlanta started as a back-and-forth shootout, but then the Falcons stopped scoring while the Texans didn't. Watson finished with 426 yards and five touchdowns on only 33 attempts. In the three months since, Watson's performance has gained 20 DYAR due to opponent adjustments as the Falcons have undergone their traditional second-half improvement on defense.
It's the opposite story for Drew Brees' five-touchdown day against Houston. Just three weeks ago we compared it to some of the best games of all time. Now, thanks to San Francisco's defensive swoon to close out December, it wasn't even the best game of the year. Which is still impressive.
Some observers (including us!) have questioned whether Aaron Rodgers still belongs among the best quarterbacks in the league. If you ask the Oakland Raiders, they would likely tell you he's still quite dangerous, thank you very much. Our final two games were produced by Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott, but they were not enough to get the Cowboys into the postseason. We'll have more -- a lot more -- to say about this on Tuesday.
Worst Games
- Kyle Allen, Week 11 vs. ATL, -285 DYAR
- Luke Falk, Week 5 vs. PHI, -270 DYAR
- Ryan Finley, Week 11 vs. OAK, -224 DYAR
- Sam Darnold, Week 7 vs. NE, -219 DYAR
- Josh Rosen, Week 6 vs. WAS, -219 DYAR
Each of these five men were in their first or second season in the NFL in 2019. Three were backups who only played because the starter on their teams was injured. One was a backup coming out of training camp who was briefly named the starter before quickly showing why he had failed to earn the job in the first place. The other was the third overall pick in 2018 who showed little development in his first season working with a head coach whose reputation as a quarterback whisperer is starting to wear thin.
Allen, like Watson, has seen the value of his game change as Atlanta's defense improved. In Week 11 we wrote that it was the new worst game of all time. Turns out it was not -- it was the fourth-worst game of all time.
Running Backs
Best Games
- Christian McCaffrey, Week 1 vs. LAR, 99 DYAR
- Aaron Jones, Week 5 vs. DAL, 96 DYAR
- Kenyan Drake, Week 9 vs. SF, 91 DYAR
- Aaron Jones, Week 8 vs. KC, 86 DYAR
- Ezekiel Elliott, Week 6 vs. NYJ, 85 DYAR
The Panthers having the best running back game of the year and the worst quarterback game of the year pretty neatly summarizes their season, really. Christian McCaffrey set the tone for Carolina's year on opening day, when he burned the Rams for 200-plus yards from scrimmage. Aaron Jones helped the Packers win a first-round bye with a pair of dominant games, including his Week 8 game against Kansas City that finished in the top five for receiving DYAR by running back. Kenyan Drake's first game with Arizona was also his best game with Arizona -- so far. By the end of the year he had relegated David Johnson to the bench, and it's clear that Drake will be a big part of an Arizona offense that looks to improve even further in 2020. Our final game was produced by Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott, but it was not enough to get the Cowboys into the postseason. We'll have more -- a lot more -- to say about this on Wednesday.
Worst Games
- Brian Hill, Week 11 vs. CAR, -65 DYAR
- Melvin Gordon, Week 7 vs. TEN, -64 DYAR
- Kalen Ballage, Week 10 vs. IND, -60 DYAR
- Damien Williams, Week 7 vs. DEN, -53 DYAR
- Alvin Kamara, Week 6 vs. JAX, -48 DYAR
Brian Hill started two games for Atlanta while Devonta Freeman was injured. In those two contests, Hill managed only 44 yards on 24 carries. One of those games came against Carolina, the worst run defense in the league, and that's the game listed here. Melvin Gordon and Damien Williams each had terrible days in Week 7, but since we list two worst running backs each week -- one based on total DYAR, one based on rushing DYAR only -- you can read about their individual struggles in that column. You cannot read about what Alvin Kamara did against Jacksonville in Week 6, however, because Derrick Henry was originally listed as the worst running back that week. Kamara gets that dubious distinction in hindsight for his day against Jacksonville, in part because he loses 21 DYAR for playing the Jaguars' atrocious defense.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Best Games
- Mike Evans, Week 8 vs. TEN, 118 DYAR
- Chris Godwin, Week 4 vs. LAR, 109 DYAR
- Mike Evans, Week 9 vs. SEA, 99 DYAR
- Stefon Diggs, Week 6 vs. PHI, 96 DYAR
- Michael Thomas, Week 5 vs. TB, 93 DYAR
That's … kind of stupefying. Bucs receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin had the three best games of the year, when they combined for 35 catches, 550 yards, and five touchdowns in only 42 targets. Michael Thomas, meanwhile, had his best game of the year against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay fans saw their share of big catches, that's for sure. Stefon Diggs, meanwhile, gained 124 yards against the Eagles … on his three touchdowns. He had 43 yards on his other four catches.
Worst Games
- Parris Campbell, Week 4 vs. OAK, -67 DYAR
- Jamison Crowder, Week 13 vs. CIN, -61 DYAR
- Tyler Boyd, Week 7 vs. JAX, -59 DYAR
- Mohamed Sanu, Week 15 vs. CIN, -53 DYAR
- Amari Cooper, Week 16 vs. PHI, -53 DYAR
Parris Campbell was an injury replacement who eventually landed on IR himself with a broken foot. Jamison Crowder was an off-and-on starter who struggled as a top wideout in the Jets offense … but then, everyone struggled in the Jets offense. It was a similar story for Tyler Boyd, who was serviceable enough as A.J. Green's sidekick in 2018 but then faceplanted without Green in 2019 -- on the other hand Green had only played nine games in 2018, and everyone in Cincinnati faceplanted in 2019. Mohamed Sanu failed to make much of an impact after the Patriots acquired him in a midseason trade. Speaking of trades, the Cowboys gave up their 2019 first-rounder to get Amari Cooper from the Raiders. He rewarded them by coming up shortest just when Dallas needed him most. It's probably not a coincidence that two of these games came against Cincinnati in December, as the Bengals defense improved radically late in the year.
Quarterbacks | |||||||||||
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
CP/AT
|
Yds
|
TD
|
INT
|
Sacks
|
Total
DYAR |
Pass
DYAR |
Rush
DYAR |
Opp
|
1.
|
Ryan Fitzpatrick | MIA |
28/41
|
320
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
201
|
196
|
5
|
NE
|
OK, for the last time this year (thank goodness), let's break down some of the most extreme opponent adjustments of the week -- starting with Fitzpatrick, who gained a league-high 81 DYAR for playing the Patriots. | |||||||||||
2.
|
Drew Brees | NO |
19/30
|
253
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
197
|
197
|
0
|
CAR
|
3.
|
Russell Wilson | SEA |
25/39
|
233
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
165
|
169
|
-4
|
SF
|
Wilson gained 70 DYAR dut to opponent adjustments. | |||||||||||
4.
|
Jimmy Garoppolo | SF |
18/22
|
285
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
111
|
110
|
1
|
SEA
|
5.
|
Ryan Tannehill | TEN |
13/20
|
198
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
110
|
104
|
7
|
HOU
|
6.
|
Dak Prescott | DAL |
23/33
|
303
|
4
|
0
|
3
|
106
|
98
|
9
|
WAS
|
7.
|
Philip Rivers | LAC |
31/46
|
281
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
99
|
99
|
1
|
KC
|
Rivers gained 54 DYAR dut to opponent adjustments. | |||||||||||
8.
|
Jared Goff | LAR |
29/45
|
319
|
3
|
0
|
1
|
86
|
83
|
2
|
ARI
|
Goff lost 55 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. | |||||||||||
9.
|
Derek Carr | OAK |
30/45
|
391
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
67
|
67
|
0
|
DEN
|
10.
|
Kyle Allen | CAR |
25/41
|
295
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
53
|
57
|
-5
|
NO
|
11.
|
Gardner Minshew | JAX |
27/39
|
295
|
3
|
1
|
3
|
45
|
41
|
3
|
IND
|
12.
|
Andy Dalton | CIN |
16/28
|
190
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
43
|
24
|
19
|
CLE
|
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
CP/AT
|
Yds
|
TD
|
INT
|
Sacks
|
Total
DYAR |
Pass
DYAR |
Rush
DYAR |
Opp
|
13.
|
Kyler Murray | ARI |
26/41
|
325
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
38
|
38
|
0
|
LAR
|
14.
|
Matt Ryan | ATL |
30/51
|
313
|
1
|
0
|
6
|
27
|
30
|
-3
|
TB
|
15.
|
Carson Wentz | PHI |
23/40
|
289
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
26
|
16
|
10
|
NYG
|
Wentz lost 57 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. | |||||||||||
16.
|
Aaron Rodgers | GB |
27/55
|
323
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
10
|
12
|
-2
|
DET
|
Rodgers lost a league-high 77 DYAR dut to opponent adjustments. | |||||||||||
17.
|
Robert Griffin | BAL |
11/21
|
96
|
0
|
1
|
3
|
6
|
-10
|
16
|
PIT
|
Griffin gained 42 DYAR dut to opponent adjustments. | |||||||||||
18.
|
Sam Darnold | NYJ |
23/36
|
199
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
-4
|
-4
|
0
|
BUF
|
19.
|
Patrick Mahomes | KC |
16/25
|
174
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
-16
|
-18
|
2
|
LAC
|
20.
|
Daniel Jones | NYG |
28/47
|
301
|
1
|
1
|
4
|
-20
|
-17
|
-3
|
PHI
|
21.
|
Drew Lock | DEN |
17/28
|
177
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
-24
|
-33
|
9
|
OAK
|
22.
|
Mitchell Trubisky | CHI |
26/37
|
207
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
-34
|
-26
|
-9
|
MIN
|
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
CP/AT
|
Yds
|
TD
|
INT
|
Sacks
|
Total
DYAR |
Pass
DYAR |
Rush
DYAR |
Opp
|
23.
|
Sean Mannion | MIN |
12/21
|
126
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
-36
|
-36
|
0
|
CHI
|
24.
|
Jameis Winston | TB |
14/24
|
201
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
-44
|
-39
|
-5
|
ATL
|
25.
|
Tom Brady | NE |
16/29
|
221
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
-48
|
-48
|
0
|
MIA
|
Brady lost 59 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. | |||||||||||
26.
|
AJ McCarron | HOU |
21/36
|
225
|
0
|
1
|
4
|
-51
|
-70
|
19
|
TEN
|
27.
|
David Blough | DET |
12/29
|
122
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
-55
|
-58
|
3
|
GB
|
28.
|
Jacoby Brissett | IND |
12/25
|
162
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
-59
|
-42
|
-17
|
JAX
|
29.
|
Baker Mayfield | CLE |
12/27
|
279
|
3
|
3
|
6
|
-72
|
-77
|
4
|
CIN
|
Mayfield lost 45 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. | |||||||||||
30.
|
Devlin Hodges | PIT |
11/25
|
95
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
-93
|
-93
|
0
|
BAL
|
31.
|
Case Keenum | WAS |
18/37
|
206
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
-96
|
-96
|
0
|
DAL
|
32.
|
Matt Barkley | BUF |
18/34
|
232
|
0
|
2
|
1
|
-108
|
-98
|
-10
|
NYJ
|
33.
|
Will Grier | CAR |
1/8
|
4
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
-113
|
-108
|
-5
|
NO
|
Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total) | ||||||||||||
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
Runs
|
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
Rec
|
Rec
Yds |
Rec
TD |
Total
DYAR |
Rush
DYAR |
Rec
DYAR |
Opp
|
1.
|
Derrick Henry | TEN |
32
|
211
|
3
|
0/0
|
0
|
0
|
73
|
73
|
0
|
HOU
|
2.
|
Boston Scott | PHI |
19
|
54
|
3
|
4/6
|
84
|
0
|
49
|
14
|
35
|
NYG
|
Scott gained 14 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. | ||||||||||||
3.
|
Mike Boone | MIN |
17
|
148
|
1
|
2/3
|
12
|
0
|
47
|
46
|
1
|
CHI
|
4.
|
Travis Homer | SEA |
10
|
62
|
0
|
5/5
|
30
|
0
|
42
|
24
|
18
|
SF
|
5.
|
David Montgomery | CHI |
23
|
113
|
1
|
0/0
|
0
|
0
|
40
|
40
|
0
|
MIN
|
Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing) | ||||||||||||
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
Runs
|
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
Rec
|
Rec
Yds |
Rec
TD |
Total
DYAR |
Rush
DYAR |
Rec
DYAR |
Opp
|
1.
|
Derrick Henry | TEN |
32
|
211
|
3
|
0/0
|
0
|
0
|
73
|
73
|
0
|
HOU
|
2.
|
Mike Boone | MIN |
17
|
148
|
1
|
2/3
|
12
|
0
|
47
|
46
|
1
|
CHI
|
3.
|
Damien Williams | KC |
12
|
124
|
2
|
4/7
|
30
|
0
|
30
|
43
|
-13
|
LAC
|
4.
|
David Montgomery | CHI |
23
|
113
|
1
|
0/0
|
0
|
0
|
40
|
40
|
0
|
MIN
|
5.
|
Devonta Freeman | ATL |
18
|
58
|
0
|
2/4
|
15
|
0
|
31
|
39
|
-8
|
TB
|
Freeman gained FORTY-TWO RUSHING DYAR dut to opponent adjustments. |
Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total) | ||||||||||||
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
Runs
|
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
Rec
|
Rec
Yds |
Rec
TD |
Total
DYAR |
Rush
DYAR |
Rec
DYAR |
Opp
|
1.
|
Miles Sanders | PHI |
9
|
52
|
0
|
3/5
|
-1
|
0
|
-23
|
7
|
-30
|
NYG
|
Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing) | ||||||||||||
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
Runs
|
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
Rec
|
Rec
Yds |
Rec
TD |
Total
DYAR |
Rush
DYAR |
Rec
DYAR |
Opp
|
1.
|
Latavius Murray | NO |
17
|
61
|
0
|
1/1
|
14
|
0
|
-23
|
-35
|
12
|
CAR
|
Murray lost THIRTY-TWO DYAR RUSHING due to opponent adjustments. |
Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR | ||||||||||
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
Rec
|
Att
|
Yds
|
Avg
|
TD
|
Total
DYAR |
Opp
|
|
1.
|
Breshad Perriman | TB |
5
|
8
|
134
|
26.8
|
1
|
64
|
ATL
|
|
2.
|
DeVante Parker | MIA |
8
|
11
|
137
|
17.1
|
0
|
56
|
NE
|
|
Parker gains 15 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. | ||||||||||
3.
|
Deebo Samuel | SF |
5
|
5
|
102
|
20.4
|
0
|
52
|
SEA
|
|
Samuel's totals include 25 DYAR receiving, 27 DYAR rushing for his two carries for 33 yards and a touchdown. | ||||||||||
4.
|
Keenan Allen | LAC |
9
|
10
|
82
|
9.1
|
1
|
46
|
KC
|
|
5.
|
Tre'Quan Smith | NO |
5
|
5
|
56
|
11.2
|
1
|
42
|
CAR
|
Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR | ||||||||||
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
Rec
|
Att
|
Yds
|
Avg
|
TD
|
Total
DYAR |
Opp
|
|
1.
|
Sterling Shepard | NYG |
5
|
10
|
39
|
7.8
|
0
|
-39
|
PHI
|
|
Comments
27 comments, Last at 02 Jan 2020, 2:02am
#2 by Raiderfan // Dec 30, 2019 - 12:45pm
Under QB8 you have “ Brady lost 55 DYAR due to opponent adjustments.”
Under QB15 you have” Brady lost 57 DYAR due to opponent adjustments”.
Under QB25 you have “ Brady lost 59 DYAR due to opponent adjustments.”
Under QB29 you have “ Brady lost 45 DYAR due to opponent adjustments.”
So, are those cumulative or what?
#9 by Dan // Dec 30, 2019 - 2:51pm
It's sad that Ballage's beautiful game against Indy only comes in third. He had 24 touches with 0 first downs, which (as far as I've been able to find - this isn't directly searchable) ties Mike Gillislee 2015 for the most touches without a first down since PFR's play-by-play data starts in 1994.
But I guess Hill got a pretty big negative boost from going nowhere against the league's worst run defense, and Gordon got big negative bonuses from fumbling twice. So I guess it's pretty difficult for mere repeated futility to compete with those kinds of bad days, and on the whole it's impressive that Ballage even made it close.
#12 by Vincent Verhei // Dec 30, 2019 - 3:50pm
By DYAR, that wasn't even Jackson's best game of the year -- Week 15 against the Jets was. He had five touchdowns in both, but averaged about 9.1 yards per play (rush + pass + sack) against NYJ, but "only" 8.4 against LAR.
Not trying to argue with you, just letting you know where that game finished in the numbers.
#19 by JimZipCode // Dec 31, 2019 - 9:07am
For next year's Quick Reads, I suggest you consider adding a column on each table, just after "Opponent", for "Opponent Adjustment". A column of +81 or -59 or whatever.
I guess it would be empty for the first several weeks of the season.
#22 by Vincent Verhei // Dec 31, 2019 - 2:49pm
We really can't add data to the tables, but I will take the suggestion of replacing data under advisement.
Although, with 2019 (almost) over, hopefully things will return to normal and opponent adjustments won't be the be-all and end-all of the rankings like they were this year.
#23 by Vincent Verhei // Dec 31, 2019 - 2:53pm
Typically we count them as a completion where the receiver is tackled at the point of the first lateral and ignore everything that happens after that.
On the rare occasion when that play works, things get complicated. Check Ryan Tannehill's comment from Week 14 last year for an example.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2018/week-14-quick-reads