Quick Reads
The best and worst players of the week according to Football Outsiders stats.

Week 1 Quick Reads

Cleveland Browns WR Odell Beckham
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

As you'll see at the bottom of the last table in this column, the least valuable receiver of Week 1, as measured by total DYAR, was Odell Beckham of the Cleveland Browns. Beckham certainly had a quiet day, catching three passes for 22 yards and no touchdowns. Only one his catches produced a first down: a 16-yard gain on first-and-10. His other receptions were a 1-yard gain on first-and-15 and a 5-yard gain on second-and-18. (He also picked up a 15-yard facemask penalty on that 1-yard gain, but DYAR does not include those penalties.) He did add another first down on a 16-yard defensive pass interference flag, but that wasn't enough to offset his negative plays -- the two short catches, but also the seven targets thrown Beckham's way that he failed to catch, tied for most in the league in Week 1. (Detroit's Quintez Cephus also had seven incomplete targets; he was third-worst among receivers in total DYAR.) Is it fair to blame Beckham for those incompletions, however, or is he a victim of circumstances?

At a very basic level, there are two ways to look at individual players' target totals, and incomplete targets in particular:

  • Targets are good! A wide receiver who gets a lot of targets is a player who gets open often and has earned the trust of his quarterback and coaching staff. If a high share of those targets happen to fall incomplete, that's a symptom of a dysfunctional offense, not just a failure on the receiver's part. On any given passing play, there is one receiver who gets a target, and three or four who do not. We can assume those who did not get a target failed to get open; they should shoulder the lion's share of the blame for the play's failure, not their teammate.
  • Targets are neutral! A target is nothing more than an opportunity for a receiver to make a play. If he succeeds and catches the ball for good yardage, he should be rewarded; if the ball falls incomplete and/or he fails to gain meaningful yardage, his statistics should be docked accordingly.

These are extreme viewpoints; the true value of incomplete passes is likely somewhere in the middle. But for the sake of discussion, let's take a look at what happens to each player's receiving DYAR when you remove incomplete passes and focus on receptions and DPI flags instead. This doesn't change the formula for DYAR, so baselines and averages will still be based on all targets, including incomplete passes. Atlanta's Calvin Ridley, who had 130 yards and two touchdowns in only nine catches this week, led all players in total receiving DYAR, and he remains on top even when you ignore incomplete passes. The rest of the top five, however, looks very different. JuJu Smith-Schuster falls from second to sixth; Adam Thielen, from third to fourth. Willie Snead and Tyler Lockett would drop out of the top 10. The new top five would go Ridley, Davante Adams, Darius Slayton, Thielen, and John Brown. Beckham would have 7 DYAR, not close to the worst receiver of the week; his place would be taken by Jets tight end Chris Herndon. Herndon caught six passes for 37 yards for New York; one of them lost 8 yards and ended in a fumble.

Of course this is just one week and a tiny sample size. It might be more instructive to look at 2019's wide receiver statistics and how they change if we ignore DYAR on incomplete passes. Either way Michael Thomas of the New Orleans Saints finishes on top of the pile, but Chris Godwin falls from second to fifth. Amari Cooper, Tyler Lockett, and Calvin Ridley fall out of the top five entirely (Lockett and Ridley fall out of the top 15), replaced by Julio Jones, DeVante Parker, and Mike Evans. The bottom of the list is meaningless because every wideout who saw enough targets (including incompletions) to qualify for our tables had positive DYAR on catches and DPIs. (There were 17 wideouts who had negative DYAR on a tiny number of catches and DPIs; Parris Campbell of the Colts was last with -60 DYAR because he fumbled twice in 18 catches.)

It might be more useful to look at which receivers see the biggest improvements or declines in the rankings. No wideout benefits more from removing incompletions than Cincinnati's Tyler Boyd. Overall he was barely above replacement level, ranking 67th out of 81 qualifiers with 3 DYAR. However, that includes a league-worst -421 DYAR on incomplete passes. Take those plays away and he had 424 DYAR, which would have been 29th. That's a jump of 38 places, moving from the 17th percentile to the 64th.

The following table shows the 10 receivers from 2019 whose rank in DYAR improves the most when we remove incompletions:

2019 WRs, Biggest Jumps in Receiving DYAR Rank when Removing Incomplete Targets
Player Tm Total
DYAR
Rk Rec/DPI
DYAR
Rk Rk
Dif
Tgt Yds TD Catch
Rate
Catches
83-T.Boyd CIN 3 67 424 29 38 148 1046 5 61% 90
10-C.Samuel CAR -21 73 352 41 32 105 627 6 51% 54
11-J.Edelman NE 48 55 436 28 27 153 1117 6 65% 100
13-O.Beckham CLE 79 46 471 23 23 133 1035 4 56% 74
82-J.Crowder NYJ 9 65 349 42 23 122 833 6 64% 78
12-A.Robinson CHI 165 26 567 10 16 154 1147 7 64% 98
17-R.Woods LAR 94 43 448 27 16 139 1134 2 65% 90
11-Ro.Anderson NYJ 66 52 378 36 16 96 779 5 54% 52
18-C.Conley JAX 68 50 396 35 15 90 775 5 52% 47
19-A.Tate CIN -5 69 272 54 15 80 575 1 50% 40
AVERAGE   50 55 409 33 22 122 907 4.7 59% 72

That's … a lot of bad passing teams. Robert Woods' Rams were 13th in yards per attempt and Beckham's Browns were 16th, but every other team in this table was in the bottom half of the league; six of these players were on teams that finished 27th or worse. Most of them, however, were major parts of their team's attacks, ranking first or second in targets. The two exceptions -- Carolina's Curtis Samuel and Jacksonville's Chris Conley -- ranked third and fourth on their respective teams in targets, but they also had catch rates in the low 50% range, so it makes sense that they'd benefit from removing all those incompletions.

Despite their bevy of incomplete targets, many of these players were still productive. Five of them topped 1,000 yards; four of them had at least 90 catches. For the most part, this is a list of the best receivers on weak passing attacks.

No wideout is hurt more by removing incompletions than Houston's Kenny Stills. Stills had 162 total DYAR, 27th in the league, but only 274 DYAR on reeptions and DPIs. He ranked 52nd in that category, a drop of 25 spots. Stills was fourth on the Texans in targets, and he had a stellar catch rate of 73%; he only had 15 incomplete targets all year, so taking those plays away doesn't affect his DYAR very much.

The following table shows the 11 receivers from 2019 (there was a tie for 10th place) whose rank in DYAR declines the most when we remove incompletions:

2019 WRs, Biggest Drops in Receiving DYAR Rank when Removing Incomplete Targets
Player Tm Total
DYAR
Rk Rec/DPI
DYAR
Rk Rk
Dif
Tgt Yds TD Catch
Rate
Catches
12-K.Stills HOU 162 27 274 52 -25 55 561 4 73% 40
13-A.Lazard GB 118 36 247 59 -23 52 477 3 67% 35
19-A.Thielen MIN 103 40 228 63 -23 48 418 6 63% 30
16-T.Williams OAK 204 20 357 39 -19 64 651 6 66% 42
13-H.Renfrow OAK 112 38 267 55 -17 71 605 4 69% 49
15-W.Fuller HOU 82 45 247 60 -15 71 670 3 69% 49
13-T.Hilton IND 76 47 239 61 -14 68 501 5 66% 45
16-T.Lockett SEA 317 4 504 17 -13 110 1057 8 75% 82
10-T.Hill KC 237 12 458 25 -13 89 860 7 65% 58
19-D.Samuel SF 121 34 297 47 -13 81 802 3 70% 57
11-D.Robinson KC 61 53 221 66 -13 55 449 4 58% 32
AVERAGE   145 32 304 49 -17 69 641 4.8 68% 47

Unlike what we saw in the first table, most of these players were on good passing teams. Seven played for teams in the top 10 in yards per pass, while only two were on clubs that were below average in that regard. (Allen Lazard's Packers were 17th; T.Y. Hilton's Colts were an extreme outlier at 28th.) Only one of them, however, led his team in targets -- and that one was Tyler Lockett, who still only saw 110 targets in a run-heavy offense in Seattle. In the rest of the list, three players were second on their team in targets, four players were in third place, two were in fourth, and Lazard was sixth in targets in Green Bay. And Lockett was the only player here to top 1,000 yards. On average, these players had about 35% fewer catches than the players who climbed the most, and about 30% fewer yards. While our first list was mostly comprised of the best receivers on bad teams, this list is mostly made of complementary weapons on good teams. Removing incomplete passes from our DYAR totals rewards the former group at the expense of the latter. Is that a fair thing to do?

That's really a philosophical question with no right or wrong answer; it really depends on your individual viewpoint. I posted the question to my Twitter followers on Sunday night, and 24 hours later, the results were running two-to-one in favor of the low-volume, high-efficiency group.

If you'd like to do your own research, the following table shows all qualifying wide receivers from 2019 along with their DYAR and rank on all throws, and their DYAR and rank on receptions/DPIs only. Players are sorted by the difference in those two ranks, with Tyler Boyd on top and Kenny Stills on the bottom.

2019 WRs, Receiving DYAR With and Without Incomplete Targets
Player Tm Total
DYAR
Rk Rec/DPI
DYAR
Rk Rk
Dif
Tgt Yds TD Catch
Rate
Catches
83-T.Boyd CIN 3 67 424 29 38 148 1046 5 61% 90
10-C.Samuel CAR -21 73 352 41 32 105 627 6 51% 54
11-J.Edelman NE 48 55 436 28 27 153 1117 6 65% 100
13-O.Beckham CLE 79 46 471 23 23 133 1035 4 56% 74
82-J.Crowder NYJ 9 65 349 42 23 122 833 6 64% 78
12-A.Robinson CHI 165 26 567 10 16 154 1147 7 64% 98
17-R.Woods LAR 94 43 448 27 16 139 1134 2 65% 90
11-Ro.Anderson NYJ 66 52 378 36 16 96 779 5 54% 52
18-C.Conley JAX 68 50 396 35 15 90 775 5 52% 47
19-A.Tate CIN -5 69 272 54 15 80 575 1 50% 40
80-J.Landry CLE 182 23 567 9 14 138 1174 6 60% 83
14-S.Watkins KC 3 68 267 56 12 90 673 3 58% 52
12-D.Moore CAR 167 25 529 14 11 135 1175 4 64% 87
14-C.Sutton DEN 189 21 556 11 10 124 1112 6 58% 72
14-DK.Metcalf SEA 105 39 413 30 9 100 900 7 58% 58
13-C.Kirk ARI 67 51 331 43 8 108 709 3 63% 68
13-M.Gallup DAL 233 15 578 8 7 113 1107 6 58% 66
17-D.Adams GB 139 31 467 24 7 127 997 5 65% 83
17-A.Miller CHI 34 58 276 51 7 85 656 2 61% 52
80-D.Amendola DET 18 64 256 57 7 97 678 1 64% 62
12-D.Westbrook JAX -73 78 195 71 7 101 660 3 65% 66
17-D.Chark JAX 134 32 457 26 6 118 1008 8 62% 73
11-J.Jones ATL 299 7 687 2 5 157 1394 6 63% 99
11-D.Parker MIA 283 8 679 3 5 128 1202 9 56% 72
10-D.Hopkins HOU 224 17 552 12 5 150 1165 7 69% 104
12-A.Erickson CIN -55 77 186 73 4 78 529 0 55% 43
19-K.Golladay DET 279 9 639 6 3 116 1190 11 56% 65
13-K.Allen LAC 232 16 542 13 3 149 1199 6 70% 104
18-D.Johnson PIT 26 61 256 58 3 91 680 5 64% 58
13-N.Agholor PHI -123 80 105 77 3 69 363 3 57% 39
13-M.Evans TB 301 6 672 4 2 118 1157 8 57% 67
15-G.Tate NYG 71 48 316 46 2 86 676 6 58% 49
14-M.Sanu 2TM -30 74 187 72 2 89 520 2 66% 59
13-J.Wright CAR -124 81 88 79 2 58 296 0 48% 28
15-J.Brown BUF 205 19 501 18 1 115 1060 6 63% 72
17-A.Jeffery PHI 50 54 273 53 1 73 490 4 59% 43
83-M.Valdes-Scantling GB -13 71 196 70 1 56 452 2 46% 26
13-M.Thomas NO 538 1 795 1 0 185 1727 9 81% 149
11-L.Fitzgerald ARI 90 44 330 44 0 109 804 4 69% 75
12-B.Cooks LAR 71 49 283 49 0 72 583 2 58% 42
81-M.Williams LAC 235 14 527 15 -1 90 1001 2 54% 49
10-C.Beasley BUF 112 37 369 38 -1 106 778 6 63% 67
18-C.Kupp LAR 205 18 486 20 -2 134 1161 10 70% 94
19-J.Smith-Schuster PIT 8 66 209 68 -2 71 552 3 59% 42
81-G.Allison GB -98 79 44 81 -2 55 287 2 62% 34
12-C.Godwin TB 415 2 664 5 -3 121 1333 9 71% 86
86-D.Slayton NYG 148 30 401 33 -3 84 740 8 57% 48
15-S.Sims WAS -53 75 102 78 -3 56 310 4 61% 34
19-A.Cooper DAL 324 3 621 7 -4 119 1189 8 66% 79
17-D.Hamilton DEN -21 72 130 76 -4 52 297 1 54% 28
15-A.Wilson MIA -53 76 86 80 -4 62 351 1 69% 43
11-J.Ross CIN 36 57 235 62 -5 56 506 3 50% 28
18-P.Williams MIA 32 59 224 64 -5 60 428 3 53% 32
83-R.Gage ATL -8 70 150 75 -5 74 446 1 66% 49
17-T.McLaurin WAS 237 13 493 19 -6 93 919 7 62% 58
13-J.Washington PIT 156 28 398 34 -6 80 735 3 55% 44
15-M.Brown BAL 98 42 284 48 -6 71 584 7 65% 46
19-T.Ginn NO 22 63 199 69 -6 56 421 2 54% 30
14-Z.Pascal IND 121 33 352 40 -7 72 607 5 57% 41
87-S.Shepard NYG 30 60 215 67 -7 83 576 3 69% 57
11-M.Jones DET 180 24 409 32 -8 91 779 9 68% 62
19-B.Perriman TB 155 29 377 37 -8 69 645 6 52% 36
17-E.Sanders 2TM 188 22 413 31 -9 97 869 5 68% 66
84-C.Davis TEN 99 41 282 50 -9 69 601 2 62% 43
13-P.Dorsett NE 46 56 222 65 -9 54 397 5 54% 29
18-R.Cobb DAL 119 35 330 45 -10 83 828 3 66% 55
18-C.Ridley ATL 310 5 508 16 -11 93 866 7 68% 63
14-S.Diggs MIN 272 10 486 21 -11 95 1130 6 67% 63
11-A.Brown TEN 251 11 474 22 -11 84 1051 8 62% 52
18-D.Thomas NYJ 25 62 182 74 -12 58 433 1 62% 36
16-T.Lockett SEA 317 4 504 17 -13 110 1057 8 75% 82
10-T.Hill KC 237 12 458 25 -13 89 860 7 65% 58
19-D.Samuel SF 121 34 297 47 -13 81 802 3 70% 57
11-D.Robinson KC 61 53 221 66 -13 55 449 4 58% 32
13-T.Hilton IND 76 47 239 61 -14 68 501 5 66% 45
15-W.Fuller HOU 82 45 247 60 -15 71 670 3 69% 49
13-H.Renfrow OAK 112 38 267 55 -17 71 605 4 69% 49
16-T.Williams OAK 204 20 357 39 -19 64 651 6 66% 42
13-A.Lazard GB 118 36 247 59 -23 52 477 3 67% 35
19-A.Thielen MIN 103 40 228 63 -23 48 418 6 63% 30
12-K.Stills HOU 162 27 274 52 -25 55 561 4 73% 40

 


 

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Russell Wilson SEA
31/35
322
4
0
3
188
179
9
ATL
Wilson excelled in scoring range -- inside the Atlanta 40, he completed 10 of his 11 passes for 114 yards and four touchdowns. He was also perfect on throws to his right, completing each of his 12 passes for 126 yards and two touchdowns.
2.
Lamar Jackson BAL
20/25
275
3
0
2
147
155
-7
CLE
Jackson had nearly twice as many passing DYAR as any other quarterback in the first half this week. In the first 30 minutes of the game, he went 13-of-16 for 208 yards; 12 of those completions picked up first downs, including two scores. There were seven starting quarterbacks who failed to throw for 12 first downs in their entire games, including Drew Brees. And Jackson wasn't dink-and-dunking, either -- his average completion was caught 10.1 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, deepest of any quarterback this week.
3.
Aaron Rodgers GB
33/44
364
4
0
0
140
136
4
MIN
Rodgers ranks this high despite having a terrible day in the red zone, where he completed six of 11 passes for 14 yards and only two touchdowns. Two of those completions lost yardage, and he also had an intentional grounding penalty on third down. By DYAR, only Ryan Fitzpatrick had a worse day in the red zone, but Rodgers was way ahead of everyone else over the other 80 yards of the field.
4.
Patrick Mahomes KC
24/32
211
3
0
1
113
113
0
HOU
A great day on third/fourth downs, when Mahomes completed seven of nine passes for 42 yards. That may not sound like much, but six of those completions picked up first downs, including three touchdowns. A tenth throws resulted in a DPI for 7 more yards and another first down. Mahomes only averaged 8.8 yards per completion this week, second-worst among starting quarterbacks, and worst among quarterbacks who won.
5.
Matt Ryan ATL
38/54
450
2
1
2
102
102
0
SEA
I say again that DYAR is a counting stat, and Ryan had a league-high 57 dropbacks this week. Most of his good throws came on passes to his right, where he went 15-of-19 for 170 yards and two touchdowns; a 20th throw resulted in a DPI for 11 more yards.
6.
Josh Allen BUF
33/46
312
2
0
3
100
117
-17
NYJ
Buffalo's win was so dominant that Allen had twice as many passing plays in Jets territory (34) as on his own side of the 50 (17). He was best -- and this seems to be a theme today -- on throws to his right, going 14-of-17 for 159 yards and two touchdowns, plus two more throws resulting in 12- and 33-yard DPIs. He also ran 12 times for 59 yards and a touchdown, but he lost a pair of fumbles on running plays.
7.
Derek Carr LV
23/30
239
1
0
0
93
93
0
CAR
Most of Carr's best plays came on throws to his right, where he went 12-of-16 for 162 yards and his touchdown.
8.
Gardner Minshew JAX
19/20
173
3
0
4
92
97
-5
IND
Minshew only threw one incomplete pass against Indianapolis, and connected on 15 straight passes to close the game. So why doesn't he rank higher? There are the four sacks, of course -- only Carson Wentz was sacked more often this week. Also, many of his completions didn't go anywhere. He averaged only 9.1 yards per completion, sixth-worst among qualifying quarterbacks.
9.
Ryan Tannehill TEN
29/43
249
2
0
1
82
79
4
DEN
Tannehill was most effective in non-obvious passing situations. With 10 or more yards to go for a first down, he went 13-of-20 for 112 yards with one sack, plus a 16-yard DPI, for only five total first downs. With 9 yards or fewer to go, he went 16-of-23 for 137 yards and 13 first downs, including both touchdowns.
10.
Cam Newton NE
15/19
155
0
0
2
75
37
39
MIA
Newton had just one first down in his first nine dropbacks, going 5-of-7 for 56 yards (25 of them on one play) with a pair of sacks. He had seven after that, including five in a row, going 10-of-12 for 99 yards. He also ran 14 times for 76 yards (both his highest marks since 2017) and eight more first downs, including two first downs. Only one of those runs was marked as a scramble.
11.
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
21/32
229
3
0
2
66
76
-11
NYG
Roethlisberg was nearly perfect throwing down the middle against New York, completing seven of eight passes for 61 yards and a touchdown.
12.
Teddy Bridgewater CAR
22/34
270
1
0
1
64
59
5
LV
Bridgewater was very good at moving the Panthers into scoring range but dreadful at converting those opportunities into points. He only had two first downs inside the Las Vegas 40, going 6-of-12 for 43 yards. That includes a total of two passes in the red zone, both incomplete.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
13.
Kirk Cousins MIN
19/25
259
2
1
2
64
52
12
GB
Green Bay was very effective at playing keepaway in this game -- Cousins only had 13 dropbacks through the end of the third quarter. By that point, the Packers were up 29-10. Cousins proceeded to post a league-best 107 DYAR in the fourth quarter, going 12-of-14 for 164 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but each of those 14 throws came with Minnesota down by at least 17 points.
14.
Philip Rivers IND
36/46
363
1
2
0
50
51
-1
JAX
The Colts and Jaguars were tied at 17-all when the fourth quarter started, but Rivers didn't do much to help Indianapolis from that point forward. Rivers went 11-of-15 in the final 15 minutes, but for only 78 yards and three first downs. He ended the game with consecutive incompletions on second-and-5, third-and-5, and fourth-and-5.
15.
Dak Prescott DAL
25/39
266
1
0
3
40
29
11
LAR
Prescott was cold as ice at the end of this game. Only one of his last 12 dropbacks produced first down, and that play was a 7-yard gain on second-and-5. In those 12 plays, he went 5-of-11 for 20 yards with a sack. On third and fourth downs, he completed two of nine passes for 13 yards with as many conversions (one) as sacks.
16.
Jimmy Garoppolo SF
19/33
259
2
0
3
40
36
5
ARI
Garoppolo's average completion gained 8.5 yards after the catch, best of any quarterback this week. That includes 71 YAC on a 76-yard touchdown pass to Raheem Mostert. He had a terrible day on third/fourth downs, going 4-of-11 for 34 yards with just one conversion, a 5-yard touchdown to Jerick McKinnon. (A 12th throw picked up another first down on a 27-yard DPI, also to McKinnon.)
17.
Mitchell Trubisky CHI
20/36
242
3
0
1
33
29
4
DET
Midway through the fourth quarter, with the Bears trailing 23-13, Trubisky was sacked and fumbled on third-and-13; the Bears recovered, but the play was a net loss of 28 yards, and they had no choice but to punt on fourth-and-41. That was Trubisky's last unsuccessful play of the day. He completed all six of his passes after that, the last five of those going for first downs, the last two for touchdowns. Those six completions in two drives produced 82 yards and 78 DYAR. Trubisky's other touchdown, by the way, was thrown earlier in the fourth quarter.
18.
Jared Goff LAR
21/31
275
0
1
1
33
28
5
DAL
Goff failed to throw for a touchdown despite having plenty of opportunities in the red zone. Inside the Dallas 20, he went 3-of-7 for 31 yards with an intentional grounding penalty. Goff's average depth of target was 4.52 yards, lowest in the league this week; his average completion gained 9.8 yards after the catch, most in the league this week. On a related note, Goff threw a dozen passes to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, completing seven of them for 95 yards.
19.
Matthew Stafford DET
24/41
297
1
1
1
28
36
-8
CHI
Stafford's 4-yard touchdown to T.J. Hockenson put the Lions up 20-6 early in the third quarter. He threw for only four more first downs after that, going 9-of-18 for 82 yards with one DPI, one sack, and one interception.
20.
Drew Brees NO
18/30
160
2
0
1
26
27
-2
TB
Brees' two touchdown passes gained a combined -4 yards through the air and 21 yards after the catch. Which is not to say he couldn't deliver the ball downfield -- he threw six deep balls against Tampa Bay, completing two of them for 64 total yards and picking up a pair of DPIs for 48 more.
21.
Tyrod Taylor LAC
16/30
208
0
0
2
23
31
-8
CIN
Taylor, if you were not aware, is very different from Philip Rivers, and one of the biggest differences may be his tendency to avoid throws to his running backs. Under Rivers, the Chargers had at least one back with at least 30 catches eight times in the past nine years. In his first start in powder blue-and-yellow, Taylor threw only one pass to a running back, a 3-yard gain to Austin Ekeler in on first-and-10.
22.
Deshaun Watson HOU
20/32
253
1
1
4
19
2
17
KC
With DeAndre Hopkins in Arizona, Watson was most effective when throwing to his backs and tight ends: 7-of-9 for 90 yards. A half-dozen of those throws picked up first downs, including a 19-yard touchdown to Jordan Akins.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
23.
Drew Lock DEN
22/33
216
1
0
0
13
23
-10
TEN
Lock was at his best throwing down the middle against Tennessee, going 7-of-9 for 80 yards and a touchdown.
24.
Kyler Murray ARI
27/39
230
1
1
2
1
-31
32
SF
Murray had 31 rushing DYAR, running for 100 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries. (Those numbers do not include kneeldowns -- officially, Murray had 91 yards on 13 carries.) As a passer, he was best on midrange passes that traveled 6 to 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage -- he completed each of his 11 throws there, nine of them for first downs, for 141 total yards.
25.
Tom Brady TB
24/36
239
2
2
3
-7
-16
9
NO
It was very strange to see Brady making so many mistakes. This was his first game with three sacks, two interceptions, and a fumble since Week 16 in 2007. (The Patriots still won that day against a Miami team with Cleo Lemon at quarterback Lorenzo Booker at running back.) Brady did benefit, however, from four DPI fouls for a combined 101 yards. The last quarterback to pick up four DPIs in a game was Baker Mayfield, who had four for 65 yards in Week 12 against Miami.
26.
Dwayne Haskins WAS
17/31
178
1
0
3
-50
-48
-2
PHI
Haskins played very well in Philadelphia territory. On his own side of the 50? Not so much: 4-of-14 for 38 yards with two first downs, two sacks, and a fumble.
27.
Daniel Jones NYG
26/41
279
2
2
3
-57
-68
11
PIT
The good news for Jones is that he was very good on third/fourth downs, going 11-of-12 for 94 yards, plus a DPI for 12 more yards, with nine total conversions (including a touchdown) and one sack. The bad news is he was dreadful on second downs, going 3-of-12 for 54 yards with one interception and one sack.
28.
Sam Darnold NYJ
21/33
215
1
1
3
-61
-63
1
BUF
Darnold's first seven passes resulted in six incompletions and a completion for no gain on third-and-9. He did not throw for a first down until the Jets were down 21-0; before that point, he had gone 3-of-10 for 22 yards with an interception and a sack. Nearly one-third of his passing yards came on his 69-yard touchdown to Jamison Crowder ... with all 69 yards coming after the catch.
29.
Joe Burrow CIN
23/35
193
0
1
3
-66
-71
5
LAC
The majority of Burrow's first NFL start was spenting making ineffectual throws to his right, where he went 13-of-21 for only 79 yards. That's not even counting the last of throws, which appeared to be a game-winning touchdown to A.J. Green but was wiped out by Green's OPI penalty.
30.
Ryan Fitzpatrick MIA
20/30
191
0
3
1
-81
-87
5
NE
Fitzpatrick wasn't especially awful in this game until the Dolphins crossed the 50-yard line. In Patriots territory, Fitzpatrick went 3-of-7 for 59 yards with one 5-yard DPI and two interceptions. He threw seven passes that traveled 8 to 12 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Two were completed for 23 yards; three were intercepted.
31.
Baker Mayfield CLE
21/39
189
1
1
2
-85
-85
0
BAL
In Ravens territory, Mayfield completed six of 11 passes for all of 17 yards with two sacks. Only one of those completions picked up a first down: a 1-yard touchdown to David Njoku.
32.
Carson Wentz PHI
24/42
270
2
2
8
-256
-259
3
WAS
As it stands, this would be one of the 20 worst games of all time, though we'll have to see how good this Washington defense is before we can say for sure. Eight sacks, two interceptions, and two fumbles is certainly a bad game, but it's hardly unheard of -- there have been 15 such games in NFL history, including two last year (one by Luke Falk, one by Matt Ryan). On third and fourth downs, Wentz went 6-of-11 for 102 yards with four conversions, three sacks, and one fumble. From the middle of the first quarter to the first dropback of the second, Wentz had this remarkable stretch of seven plays: back-to-back sacks; completion for a gain of 55; completion for a loss of 2; sack; completion for no gain; completion for 11 yards; sack. On the plus side, when Wentz did throw, he often went deep -- his average depth of target was 12.4 yards, best this week in the NFL.

 

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Christian McCaffrey CAR
23
96
2
2/5
38
0
67
34
33
LV
McCaffrey was stopped for no gain or a loss four times while running for a half-dozen first downs, including gains of 13 and 15 yards. His three catches: an 11-yard gain on first-and-10, then back-to-back gains of 11 and 16 yards to turn second-and-25 into a first down. He also gained 25 yards on a DPI on third-and-5.
2.
Malcolm Brown LAR
18
79
2
3/4
31
0
62
54
8
DAL
Only one of Brown's carries failed to gain positive yardage. Eight of them gained first downs, the longest a gain of 12. He was dominant in short-yardage -- he had seven carries with 1 or 2 yards to go and picked up a first down on six of them. He added another first down through the air with an 18-yard gain on first-and-10.
3.
David Johnson HOU
11
77
1
3/4
32
0
51
36
14
KC
All of Johnson's carries gained at least 1 yard; four of them picked up first downs, including a 19-yard touchdown and a 17-yar gain on second-and-10. All three of his catches went for first downs too.
4.
Josh Jacobs LV
25
93
3
4/6
46
0
50
40
10
CAR
Jacobs' longest carry gained only 14 yards and he was stuffed for no gain or a loss four times, but he ran for nine first downs, including three scores. He added two first downs as a receiver: a 29-yard gain on second-and-14 and an 18-yard gain on second-and-10.
5.
Ezekiel Elliott DAL
22
96
1
3/4
31
1
44
24
20
LAR
Elliott picked up seven first downs on the ground while being stuffed for a loss only three times. He had two more first downs as a receiver, including a 19-yard touchdown.

 

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Malcolm Brown LAR
18
79
2
3/4
31
0
62
54
8
DAL
2.
Josh Jacobs LV
25
93
3
4/6
46
0
50
40
10
CAR
3.
David Johnson HOU
11
77
1
3/4
32
0
51
36
14
KC
4.
Christian McCaffrey CAR
23
96
2
2/5
38
0
67
34
33
LV
5.
Dalvin Cook MIN
12
50
2
1/2
-2
0
14
30
-16
GB
Cook didn't get a lot of carries in this game, but he made his carries count. Two went for touchdowns, two more went for first downs, and only one went for no gain.

 

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Saquon Barkley NYG
15
6
0
6/9
60
0
-52
-59
7
PIT
Barkley did not run for a single first down in this game. He only had two successful carries, his longest run gained only 7 yards, and he was hit for no gain or a loss eight times. But hey, he did have three first downs as a receiver, including a 38-yard gain on second-and-17.

 

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Saquon Barkley NYG
15
6
0
6/9
60
0
-52
-59
7
PIT

 

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Calvin Ridley ATL
9
12
130
14.4
2
58
SEA
Ridley's totals include 62 DYAR receiving, -4 DYAR rushing for his one carry for a 1-yard loss. Each of his nine catches picked up a first down, including touchdowns of 7 and 18 yards.
2.
JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT
6
6
69
11.5
2
56
NYG
Five of Smith-Schuster's catches produced first downs, including three third-down conversions and two touchdowns. The other was a 9-yard gain on first-and-10.
3.
Allen Lazard GB
4
4
63
15.8
1
53
MIN
Three of Lazard's catches produced first downs, including two third-down conversions and a touchdown. The other was a 9-yard gain on first-and-10. His totals include 40 DYAR receiving, 12 DYAR rushing for his one run for 19 yards.
4.
Adam Thielen MIN
6
8
110
18.3
2
50
GB
Five of Thielen's catches produced first downs, including two touchdowns. The other was a 7-yard gain on first-and-10.
5.
Willie Snead BAL
4
4
64
16.0
1
48
CLE
All four of Snead's catches produced first downs, including three third-down conversions.

 

Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Odell Beckham CLE
3
10
22
7.3
0
-44
BAL

 

Comments

57 comments, Last at 16 Sep 2020, 10:03pm

1 Josh Allen

i am wondering why Allen is so high. And I am a BIlls fan :-)

Looking on his individual page, there is a 0 in FL. I assume FL is fumbles lost. He lost two, so maybe these numbers are missing and that will decrease his numbers. 
Are they really that high with two fumbles?

6 The two fumbles were as a…

In reply to by Topas

The two fumbles were as a rusher, contributing to his -17 in rushing DYAR, which is really bad considering all the rushing yards and first downs he had.  But the fumbles don't impact his passing DYAR.  

2 Who cares...

...about the Browns?

I've never seen a team who is in the spotlight so much yet achieves so little.  Why the interest?

3 Good question

In reply to by DIVISION

The Browns are now beyond parody.  It's just sad.  Think it would be better for everyone to just let them be and pay attention again if and when some degree of consistent competence is displayed.

15 Personally - I'm interested…

In reply to by DIVISION

Personally - I'm interested because I've lived in Cleveland and have spent a lot of time with die-hard Browns fans, and they deserve better.

Generally - Most years you can say "That was a confluence of weird things happening.  With normal luck, this team might be a wildcard contender.  I want to see what happens next year when they can't possibly have such a string of bad luck."  And then their luck gets worse.  And in the years you can't say that, its like a horrible car accident.  Not a normal accident, but the kind you see once and can never forget.

21 Because they inarguably have…

In reply to by DIVISION

Because they inarguably have talent on the roster but are unable to deploy that talent. "Why is a team so bad?" can be just as interesting as "why is this team so good?"

4 "The bottom of the list is…

"The bottom of the list is meaningless because every wideout who saw enough targets (including incompletions) to qualify for our tables had positive DYAR on catches and DPIs."

This is a really interesting note, and I think it implies targets are more "good" than "neutral". Getting targets means you deserve them, so to speak.

I suspect it would be better to normalize WR completion percentage on a team level. Thinking of two hypothetical offenses where the top WR had the same number of receptions and targets:

Team A
WR 1: 15 targets, 10 receptions, 125 yards
WR 2: 7 targets, 6 receptions, 70 yards
WR 3: 6 targets, 5 receptions, 55 yards

Team B
WR 1: 15 targets, 10 receptions, 125 yards
WR 2: 13 targets, 8 receptions, 95 yards
WR3: 9 targets, 7 receptions, 85 yards

At a glance, I would assume the top WR on Team A is by far their best receiver, and therefore gets the targets when no one else is open, which is somewhat frequent. On Team B, other receivers are getting more targets, so WR 1's target volume is less impressive.

Maybe you could adjust by percentage of team targets?

16 I think objectively what you…

I think objectively what you say to that is team B passes more. But also, in both cases team A and B both have really 3 really good receivers! and team A might try to target WR2 and 3 some more!!! what, is WR1 for team A Antonio Brown and constantly complaining???

At any rate, this is a complex problem, a multibody problem as it were. Great receivers typically command defensive attention, but some defenses scheme more help towards top wideouts, or maybe have a top notch cover corner who will follow the opposing wideouts, more than others. And some topnotch cover corners won't move across the field anyways.  Some QBs force stuff, others will not, and some will depending on the corners their wideouts are facing. 

It's tough, but definitely I would say a WR who gets 8 catches on 8 targets for 96 is having a better game and producing more value than a WR who catches 8 on 12 targets for 96 yards (given equal down and distance and FD adn TD outcome). But maybe that's contingnet on if, on the other 4 targets that the first WR doesn't receive, they get at least one more successful play, perhaps in part because of his successes. maybe you adjust for overall team target success rate as opposed to overall targets. 

47 Oddly enough, he's been…

Oddly enough, he's been better against the great 49ers defense than against the rest of the league. He had 5 touchdowns and no turnovers in the two games against them last year with a passer rating over 100 in both (he only had one other game with a passer rating over 100) and nearly won both of those games. But maybe SF is just bad against mobile QBs.

10 It would seem WRs change…

It would seem WRs change teams often enough that you could track WR1s who go to another team and become a WR2 or a WR1a, and WR2s who change teams and become a WR1, and see which one prospers more in the new place.

11 Squirrels' D

"As it stands, this would be one of the 20 worst games of all time, though we'll have to see how good this Washington defense is before we can say for sure."

Two thoughts:

- this game shows the limits of the utility of blaming a QB for sacks.  Clearly the Eagles' line was the problem, not the QB.  

- the Squirrels have been drafting d-linemen for years, and just drafted Chase Young, who is considered to be a can't-miss All-Pro.  The men in burgundy and gold still have a lot of flaws, but that's a seriously talented pass rush.  

13 The FT D-line is good, but…

In reply to by RickD

The FT D-line is good, but it was more the Eagles O-line being terrible. A couple times Washington rushed 4, The Eagles had 5 guys, and blocked 3. I could have gotten the sack on two of those plays.

Wentz kept hurting himself by running backwards into sacks instead of throwing it away, but there were a lot of downs when the pocket had collapsed and/or he had a man in his face before he finished his dropback. It's a good D-line, but air would have slowed the rush down as much as the Eagles were.

17 Living in DC, I watched more…

Living in DC, I watched more that game than I would have preferred.  Wentz looked awful for most of it.  He missed open receivers even when he had time to throw.  (I remember one terrible overthrow in particular to Reagor that would've been a touchdown.)

It's seems possible that Wentz's fate is that of decent, slightly-above-league-average, Andy Dalton-esque starting quarterback, which would be a let down given his high draft status and his 2017 promise.

32 Definitely a mixture of O…

In reply to by RickD

Definitely a mixture of O-line and QB, as it always is, but the Eagles Pass Block Win Rate was actually pretty good on Sunday: https://twitter.com/SethWalder/status/1305507667616595968

Wentz is to blame for the glut of bad throws and holding onto the ball forever. Pederson is probably to blame for continually calling deep passes that take a long time to develop, though I'm happy the Eagles at least think they have targets to throw deep to this year.

12 Own Defense Adjusted?

It is often noted that DYAR is a counting stat, the more plays you get the more you accumulate (for better or worse).   It is defense adjusted by the defense you play against, and that is all well and good.

But it got me wondering, as an offense, could you also adjust for your own defense?   What I mean is, if an offensive player's own defense prevents big plays but cannot get off the field on 3rd down thus giving up long time consuming drives, an offensive player will as a consequence, through no cause of their own, have less opportunities to accumulate DYAR.   Conversely, if their defense either forces 3 and outs, turnovers, or gives up quick long scoring plays, then they will have more opportunities for plays and hence chances to accumulate DYAR.....

And can that be adjusted for as well?    At first glace that might seem to be simply returning to a per play metric (DVOA) but not exactly as it would still take into account earning those plays (for non-qbs).   I dunno.  

What got me thinking about his was how Cousins got his numbers back up with a lot of garbage time, but aided by the fact that his defense kept giving him the ball back by yielding scores readily.

14 What I mean is, if an…

What I mean is, if an offensive player's own defense prevents big plays but cannot get off the field on 3rd down thus giving up long time consuming drives, an offensive player will as a consequence, through no cause of their own, have less opportunities to accumulate DYAR.

Less opportunity or fewer opportunities. Subtle distinction, but I read less opportunity as being time of possession and fewer opportunities as being snap count. 

In this case, I think both are true in practice, but the offense has some control over the count of opportunities, because game time between snaps is under the offense's control.

 

What got me thinking about his was how Cousins got his numbers back up with a lot of garbage time, but aided by the fact that his defense kept giving him the ball back by yielding scores readily.

This is why Drew Brees led the league in DYAR so many times. He had a great offense paired with a defense that was both terrible and high-risk. They basically either generated a turnover quickly or got burned badly for a TD -- it was like playing every game against Jameis Winston. Either way, you were going to have the ball back again almost instantly.

22 Brees has played with some…

Brees has played with some lousy defenses in New Orleans, but also some pretty decent ones, and it hasn't really mattered as far as his DYAR is concerned. In fact his worst recent years for DYAR were 2014 & 2015, when the Saints defense really bottomed out (27th in 2014, and dead last in 2015). In 2013, 2018 & 2019 his defense ranked #7,#8 and #8 respectively, and his DYAR was still top 3 in the league each season. There doesn't appear to be any correlation there.  

33 I think the poster's point…

I think the poster's point isn't that NO's defense has not ever been good during Bree's tenure, but that NO's defense has always been high variance. Whatever you might say about the quality of defenses the Saints have fielded over the years, the contention is that they've always played to maximize number of possessions; they either they get a quick stop/turnover, or they give up a quick score, but they don't give up many long, clock-killing drives. I don't know that this contention is true, though my own observations and confirmation bias suggest that it is. In any case, DVOA wouldn't really be the appropriate metric to measure this truth of the proposition. Either possessions per game or avg opponent time per possession would be more likely to answer the question.

35 He did say "terrible and…

He did say "terrible and high risk", so I assumed he meant both (for the record, the Saints defensive DVOA variance has never been especially or consistently high either, although I agree, this is not the best measure for what we are trying to figure out). 

I don't think there is much doubt that the defenses Brees has been paired with have, at times, inflated his raw totals. But when we move to more advanced metrics that incorporate efficiency, like DYAR, I think it becomes less clear - I guess that was what I was trying to convey. Apologies if it came across as nit-picking.

37 It's funny how Brees has…

It's funny how Brees has managed to end up with a very similar DYAR nearly every season in the past decade independent of how good his defense is or whether they've been 7-9/8-8 vs. in the playoffs. He's picked up extra volume (attempts and yards) when he's had to spend more time playing from behind or trying to outscore the opponent in a shootout, but having to throw in less favorable circumstances has hurt his efficiency enough to trim his DYAR back down to where he ends up in better times with fewer attempts.

This isn't the same thing, but I think related - this is why teams with good QBs but who run the ball too much (ahem, Seattle) might be able to throw the ball more while still maintaining or even improving their passing efficiency. There's still meat on the bone for your passing offense if your playcalling is less predictable and don't cluster so many of your passing attempts in unfavorable situations. It's different when you're playing from behind in the game as opposed to behind in down and distance, but I think it's really the unfavorable circumstances that hurt these QBs' efficiency stats, not volume. Maybe based on Week 1 the Seahawks finally figured this out.

46 this was my favorite…

this was my favorite takeaway of the week and I immediately thought of Russel Wilson too, though that 4th down touchdown throw to DK Metcalf was beautiful, which i guess only reinforces the point. if he's that good in obvious passing situations just imagine how good he'd be less obvious situations! 

Of course then you'd be throwing on every first and second down ... .oh forget it, i'm going to bed.

43 Cousins

But also remember that the offensive players themselves create opportunities to get more DYAR--esp. the QB. A lot was made about Cousins' lack of pass attempts. Obviously, that is partly about the playcaller on the sideline, as well as the defense that might cause an audible at the line. But if Cousins had few attempts, but was successful, he would have either accumulated more opportunities for attempts (1st downs achieved, thus prolonging drives) or more points on the board. Think back to last years' NFC championship--it didn't matter that Jimmy G had a small number of attempts, because they were winning handily.

Thus, while passing DYAR is somewhat dependent upon the number of drives a team has, and the game circumstances (being behind=more passing in general), no one cares if the team is successful and winning. Look at Matt Ryan versus Gardner Minshew--GM's totals don't look special, other than his completion percentage. But if the team is successful, his raw totals will not matter to anyone except his fantasy owners. His DYAR may be lower b/c of fewer attempts--but his DVOA will be high. 

Back to the GB-MIN game yesterday, Cousins' DYAR was low through 3 quarters b/c he and the offense were not consistent enough to generate drives and points outside of the opening drive. Rodgers did, and his raw stats and DYAR reflect that.

20 Philosophically, I'm on the…

Philosophically, I'm on the side of more targets is a reflection of the (relative) skill of the receiver, while incompletions are a combination of the skill of that receiver, his QB, and the rest of his receiving corp (on the expectation that, on average, the weaker the other throwing options, the more balls get "forced" towards the best guy on the field).

My question is whether there's any way to distinguish, however, between incompletions and outright drops?  In theory more drops should mean fewer targets, but in theory more fumbles should mean fewer carries, too, and I think there's value to capturing the material impact of fumbles.  Drops aren't necessarily as impactful, but if there was a way to capture drops like the OBJ clip above or the DET rookie's end-of-game drop? (the latter being even more impactful on the final game result than a typical fumble)  The counter argument is that if it's an incompletion, it doesn't matter why it's an incompletion, but if the intent is to measure a WR's impact, I'm inclined to bring in baseball's concept of a fielding error and apply it as a negative score to a dropped ball, if feasible.

26 Drops!

The problem is getting that subjective "drops" data from a source (SIS, ESPN S&I, Sportradar, etc.) and getting it connected to our database immediately so that we can consider it on Sunday night. Usually that subjective data takes a day or two to compile.

But yes, theoretically, it would make sense to differentiate between outright drops and other incomplete targets.

44 I would add that drops are…

In reply to by Aaron Schatz

I would add that drops are just one way (the most obvious way) a receiver can cause an incompletion. He could also fail to get both feet down on the sideline; he can run a sloppy route and force the QB to make a difficult throw; he can lose the battle for a jump ball and allow the DB to knock it away; etc. That's why I agree with lumping all incompletions into one category rather than trying to determine who is responsible.

45 All good points.  To extend…

All good points.  To extend my baseball analogy, if a runner gets to first on a hit to right field, does it matter whether it's because the fielder muffed the catch, lined up too deep / too shallow, was too slow to reach the ball, etc.?

In other words, does introducing a drop as the equivalent of a baseball error, as a more egregious non-catch than a regular incompletion, add any useful information, or not?  The reason I suspect it might, without being certain that it would, is that parsing out a clear cut case of when it was the receiver's fault, while leaving the other murkier incompletions unclarified, does at least reduce the pool of situations where fault is either shared or of uncertain origin. 

50 So long as 'hit it where…

So long as 'hit it where they ain't' is a useful maxim, errors will be different from hitting the ball to where a sub-par fielder cannot reach it. That is basically the "hole in zone" equivalent of baseball.

51 Errors and drops

Interestingly, I think the trend in sabermetric thinking in baseball is that disregarding errors and just measuring the number/percentage of balls in play that are turned into outs or not is more predictive for both offensive and defensive metrics.  So it's not clear to me that going the other direction and trying to subjectively judge whether an incompletion is a "drop" or not would add value to what is already a small sample.

54 But we're trying to…

But we're trying to determine which player is accountable for which part. That's more like range factor than it is balls put into play. Arguably completion percentage is BABIP.

57 I've always been a little…

I've always been a little skeptical of how unsuccessful passes are treated on the part of the reciever. It's not really the WRs or quite often a RB's fault if he runs a screen or short out and the QB passes it to him despite there being two defenders about to crush him. Unless it is well behind the LOS, they should still catch the ball as a 1 yard gain on 3rd and 4 is better than an incompletion, but this kind of thing wrecks their DYAR even if they are doing the best they can in the situation. It's not their fault if the QB didn't find the open guy on the other side of the field.

23 I don't think it's a matter of viewpoint

Look at DK Metcalf.  He was targeted 8 times and caught 4.  He has a history of dropping passes.  Russell Wilson was absolutely perfect, going 27/27 when targeting anyone not named DK Metcalf.  You can't lay that on the rest of the WR's not getting open, they were getting open or the quality of the QB or Wilson trying to force throws..  You pretty much have to lay that right on DK Metcalf.

24 WOW- I had to look that up…

WOW- I had to look that up for myself to believe it. That's incredible!

I'm guessing part of that has to do with depth of target. DK still led the team in yards, and yards per catch, and in yards per target for players who got multiple targets. I didn't watch the game, but was Mr. Kong at fault for most of his incompletions, or were they just tougher, better-defensed throws?

25 Watching that game

DK had one of the worst drops... ever.  He had a 15-20 yard in cut that Wilson hit him, between the numbers squared up and just dropped.  DK was at least 5 yards clear of any defenders.

He made up for it with the long 4th down TD though.

 

Wilson's 4 incompletions... 2 DK drops, one pass tipped at the line of scrimmage, and a normal incompletion thrown to DK in traffic.

 

DK has the lowest catch percentage of any primary receiver to ever play with Wilson.

29 "You pretty much have to lay…

"You pretty much have to lay that right on DK Metcalf."

He has drop issues for sure, but it's also possible Russ throws him the ball when nobody is open because he's huge and athletic and has a better chance of making a contested catch than anybody else on the team.

34 Feedback

i am wondering why Allen is so high. And I am a BIlls fan :-)

Looking on his individual page, there is a 0 in FL. I assume FL is fumbles lost. He lost two, so maybe these numbers are missing and that will decrease his numbers. 

Are they really that high with two fumbles?

Biggest reasons:

* Volume. Only Matt Ryan had more dropbacks this week.

* Consistency. Only five starters had a higher success rate. Allen completed over 70% of his passes and only had six failed completions.

* Combine those two stats and Allen led the NFL this week with 29 successful passing plays. 

* No interceptions. The fumbles were both on rushing plays and are accounted for in his rushing DYAR.

"The bottom of the list is meaningless because every wideout who saw enough targets (including incompletions) to qualify for our tables had positive DYAR on catches and DPIs."

This is a really interesting note, and I think it implies targets are more "good" than "neutral". Getting targets means you deserve them, so to speak.

Remember, this is DYAR on completions/DPIs as calculated using are standard DYAR calculations. So really it's saying that completions/DPIs are more valuable than incomplete passes. 

Russell Wilson was absolutely perfect, going 27/27 when targeting anyone not named DK Metcalf.

Wow. I watched every play of that game and didn't realize that until now.