Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen

Week 14 Open Discussion

After a Week 13 slate that was decidedly blah, the Football Gods have blessed us with a Week 14 schedule full of matchups between playoff contenders from beginning to end. To wit:

  • Tonight, the New England Patriots (6-6) travel to L.A. to face the Rams (8-4) in a rematch from a Super Bowl just two years ago.
  • On Sunday, the Minnesota Vikings (6-6) hope to keep their wild-card hopes alive against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5).
  • Another NFC wild-card contender, the Arizona Cardinals (6-6), visit to play the New York Giants (5-7), who are still tied for first in the NFC East.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) play their last game against an AFC contender, the Miami Dolphins (8-4).
  • The Indianapolis Colts (8-4) face the Las Vegas Raiders (7-5) in a potential wild-card preview.
  • Division leaders square off on Sunday night when the AFC North's Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1) visit the current leaders of the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills (9-3).
  • And speaking of the AFC North, the reigning division champs, the Baltimore Ravens (7-5) head to Cleveland to play the Browns (9-3) looking to stay in the heart of the wild-card race.

Use this thread to discuss them all.

 

Comments

100 comments, Last at 15 Dec 2020, 9:54am

1 running game

Rams are #1 in rushing DVOA, and Pats are #4.  But they are #1 in unadjusted running VOA (Rams are #2).

Should be an interesting game between teams with similar philosophies.  It's been a weird season for the Pats in that they've played better vs. teams above them in the standings (SEA, MIA, LVR, BAL, ARI, BUF) than they have vs teams below them in the standings (DEN, HOU).  Though their worst game was vs. the 49ers and their best vs. the Chargers.  So, aside from the counter-examples, it's a clear trend!  

51 Copying division?

Idk what you mean. Doesn't seem like it's something to get that upset about. Not like they said the Cowboys were.

And it looks like they cover today vs the SB fav. Not bad.

11 They're not Super Bowl contenders

But anyone can see the Dolphins have improved and improved rapidly. Flores has changed the entire culture there, you can see it on the field. The roster is still full of holes and needs quite a few upgrades but they've gone from easy outs to a team that can at the least give most teams a real game. They whipped the same Rams team that's schooling the mighty Pats right now.

18 The Dolphins are 8-4, the…

The Dolphins are 8-4, the Pats 6-6 (now 6-7), and Miami is the one you're questioning? 

But to answer your question, the Dolphins have 11% odds of winning the division and are better than 50-50 to get a wild-card berth, so they are definitely contenders to make the playoffs. 

21 I never agreed the Pats were…

I never agreed the Pats were contenders, either. =)

I had read that as title contenders, which I thought a bridge too far for a team intentionally starting their #2 QB.

28 Both were injury…

In reply to by young curmudgeon

Both were injury replacements.

Amusingly, you could almost put Peyton Manning in this group.

6 I hate to see this

#FreeDarrellHenderson

7 Wowwww, terrible, horrible,…

Wowwww, terrible, horrible, no good, very bad pick by Newton. It looked like he was trying to throw to the "check down" - except he was blocking, and only turned around when the ball was already on top of him. Rams take it to the house.

Mayyyybe the back was late releasing his block, so it might not be 100% Newton's fault (although I think I'm being pretty generous here), but that was back-breaking. After looking like they might get buried early, they got a fluke pick (I don't see how that one could be on Goff at all, the DB just took it straight out of the receiver's hands) and finally started to move the ball a little. Now they're down 17 against one of the best defenses against the league, with one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL.

8 Cam Newton is the only QB in…

Cam Newton is the only QB in history with 30,000 yards passing and 5,000 rushing.

The 30k/4k club got a fair amount of attention earlier this year, but Newton's on another level as a run+pass threat. He could realistically get to 6k rushing, maayybe 7k if he ages gracefully (he's at 5200 now and averages about 500 a season; if that sounds implausible to maintain, he's already at about 450 this year).

Russ Wilson will almost certainly get to 5k rushing in the next few years as well (he's already well over 30k passing).

9 1974 football translatopm device

Entered C. Newton's current stats (5 touchdown apsses, 10 interceptipns) into my 1974 football translation device. It says Newton wpudl have 3 toucjdown passes and 22 interceptions if tjis junk was happpening in 1974

13 Gotta translate those 11…

Gotta translate those 11 rush TDs too. Honestly, give him 14 combined TDs (with the 22 INTs), and he's not that far off from John Hadl in 1972, who was a Pro Bowler (16 total TDs, 26 INTs).

10 Cam Newton is just so so…

Cam Newton is just so so limited at this point. 

 

How awful is Jared Stidham, and why the hell did the Patriots enter the season with him as the main option?

15 Wentz value

I meant to post this in the Wentz being benched thread but I think here makes sense too.

I think Wentz' value might be similar to Osweilers a few years ago in that Philly almost needs to package picks with him for someone to take him. I saw a comment saying they would take a 2 or 3 for Wentz but I think the Eagles will have to package a 2nd for some team to even consider him.

16 I feel like Wentz still has…

In reply to by Rich A

I feel like Wentz still has value. He has been very bad this year but wasn’t anywhere near this bad before now. He didn’t suddenly lose all his talent; his offensive line imploded and they don’t have any competent wide receivers to get open quickly, and their two talented TEs have been hurt as well. Hell, Travis freaking Fulgham ranked in the top 10 in DVOA for a bit, and we know that wasn’t based off his talent.

Here’s the teams I think would be interested in Wentz and would trade a mid- to high (2-4) pick for him:

Raiders, Broncos, Colts, Pats, Lions (Wentz plus pick for Stafford?), Bears

I confess I didn’t look up those teams cap situations which is a big factor of course. But I absolutely can see Gruden and Elway seeing value in another retread QB, Reich thinking he can coach Wentz back up like he did in SB season, etc. 

19 Wentz in Indy? Please no.

When the Colts signed Rivers I was highly skeptical--not because of the man as much as his age.  I didn't see them as a potential win it all in 2020 type team. (and still don't)  He's been okay, and a shade better than I feared but I assume less than the team hoped for.  

If they sign Wentz I will move to Indy, buy a pack of the biggest dogs I can find, and poop-bomb Chris Ballard's house daily.  I'd rather they give Jacob Eason a shot. They're saying nice things about the practice squad rookie, but he really didn't wow me at UW, so I am skeptical once more.

If they do sign a vet--I don't care how much he costs because it has to be less than Rivers AND Brissett are getting combined this year--I want it to be Dak. Dallas dithered with him and now it's somebody else's chance, right?  Oh please, oh please, ohplease, ohpleeeze!

26 C'mon, Dak's a pipe dream…

C'mon, Dak's a pipe dream.

Wentz isn't an insane option for Indy. If they got him (via trade) I'd have to imagine it'd be for token (or essentially no) compensation, and it's reasonable to assume they could get Wentz to modify his contract slightly so that the Colts wouldn't be on the hook for anything after 2021.

In that case it's not much different than signing Rivers in 2020, except with much higher upside - if it turns out the majority of Wentz's problems were Pederson and the Eagles offense, you end up with an average-ish QB for $25M for three years. Which is a big advantage. If it turns out Wentz is really toast, you bench him and go with a cheap option who's almost certain to be subpar in the long run too.

Really, cycling through mediocre vets until you find a viable QB isn't a bad option for a team, so long as you can keep the costs reasonable. I know lots of Vikings fans have been made miserable by it, but maintaining a nearly 10-win average for 7 years in the NFC North is pretty impressive.

31 Yea that makes no sense. …

Yea that makes no sense.  The only reason to move on from Stafford would be if the new GM/coach wants to blow everything up, start fresh, and clear some cap space.  Making that trade makes it a wash as far as cap hit, for a significant downgrade at quarterback (or at least one that will need a lot of work). 

It would be like moving out of your fairly nice house into a fixer-upper, without changing your mortgage payments.

33 Lions are about to hire a…

Lions are about to hire a new GM and coach, not inconceivable that they look at Stafford's history of average play and come out wanting more. If they also look at Wentz and think he's been in a horrible situation this year and therefore the cost to acquire is at an all-time low, they definitely consider this.

The side I'd question where the reasoning for it is, is the Eagles. They've got Hurts, they'll probably give him a year to see what he's got. People always seem to think Stafford is in the good class of QBs, when he has been in the mid-teens on average in DYAR for years now.

34 It's kindof at an all-time…

It's kindof at an all-time low. In 2022 his contract guarantees are done and so acquiring him in 2022 is actually pretty reasonable - it's essentially 3 years, year-to-year at ~$25M/pop, which for 22/23/24 is definitely "let's try this guy" category.

In 2021 his contract's still got a 2022 guarantee so that's a $50M tryout cost, which is quite a bit worse given Detroit's cap situation. That's the limiting factor, I think - I don't think it's really easily viable for Detroit to ditch Stafford next year and bring in a $25M QB.

But of course there is a strong risk that Wentz plays better in 2021, so there's that.

35 Perhaps the Lions nix the…

Perhaps the Lions nix the pick ask and instead ask the Eagles to pay some of that salary instead? Not sure if the Eagles would be willing to take on what is required though.

Instead the Lions will likely just keeping banging their heads into the wall with Stafford, hoping to create a team around him that can elevate him.

39 OK, so to be clear, the only…

OK, so to be clear, the only way Philly's trading Wentz in 2021 is as a post-June 1 trade. It's literally the only thing that's possible - in that case it frees up $25M in 2021, costing them $9M dead that year and plopping $24M dead in 2022.

$15M of Wentz's 2022 salary guarantees in March 2021, so if the Eagles were to convert that into a signing bonus, it'd cost them $4M extra in 2021 (and $11M extra in 2022).

That's... doable but really painful for Philly (again, their cap situation is Ultra Mega Bad), and it'd make Wentz a bargain for Detroit (2 years, $30M-ish). So not totally crazy but in that case Philly'd almost definitely want decent draft compensation.

41 "Instead the Lions will…

"Instead the Lions will likely just keeping banging their heads into the wall with Stafford, hoping to create a team around him that can elevate him."

Have you seen any evidence that Wentz can elevate a team around him?

40 Stafford is not in the elite…

Stafford is not in the elite/excellent (whatever you want to call it) class of QB's, but at the very least he is solidly above average.  He's been top 10 or better in DYAR four of the previous five years.  Saying he's the reason for the Lions' lack of success is....misguided.  The Lions aren't successful because they draft and team-build poorly.

Of course the Lions would be better off if they find an upgrade at quarterback (especially considering the age cliff may be coming for Stafford soon), but going after Wentz would be barking up the wrong tree.  He's much more likely to be a significant downgrade than an upgrade.  If they're going to start over, better to look to the draft, either 2021 or 2022).  In fact, they may as well keep Stafford as a bridge quarterback, as the cap hit for moving on from him after 2021 would be much more palatable.

"If they also look at Wentz and think he's been in a horrible situation this year...."  

The Lions the past few years haven't had a significantly better roster or injury luck compared to the Eagles.  Injury luck is slightly better, but roster has mostly been worse.

43 I'm trying to think of the…

I'm trying to think of the last QB who, in a vacuum, elevated a bad roster.

Maybe late-Indy Manning?

'course, last year, we found out Stafford was worth about 7 wins more than his backups.

44 Oh, dear Lord, Brady,…

Oh, dear Lord, Brady, without a doubt! New England's passing offense was above average last year! You could say they're "only"  at -9.8% this year but that's only because they choose to pass so little.

Two years ago they were a top 5 offense with the dreck of a receiving corps that they've got. 

46 You think so? 2020 NE has…

You think so? 2020 NE has been vastly worse than either Newton or Brady were in 2018, but 2020 Tampa is basically the same passing offensive success as they had in 2018 with the two-headed turnover monster. The difference is they are running better this year.

47 Brady's DYAR's …

Brady's DYAR's *significantly* higher than Winston's was in 2018. The results may be the same but the assignment of credit is different: TB's success in 2018 was mostly receiver-driven, and much more quarterback-driven in 2020.

Plus Brady's 2 years older than in 2018.

50 Scheme and Players

Arians' go big or go home offensive style also goes directly against what Brady likes to do, and so I have to imagine that when I see Brady forcing it down to Evans or Brown against double coverage it's because that's just how the scheme works. His usual option of checking it down 7 yards when his deep looks aren't open also isn't trustworthy given Fournette and Jones aren't exactly pass-catching backs.

So what happens when you give Brady elite jump ball receivers and brick-handed running backs? Well, 28 touchdowns and 11 interceptions through 12 games, apparently.

30 What if it turns out Hurts…

In reply to by Rich A

What if it turns out Hurts stinks in his last 4 games too?  The Eagles would be drafting in the top 5 at 3-12-1 or 4-11-1.  Would they draft another QB then (keep in mind Cincinnati doesn't need another QB)?  If they can't move Wentz, then maybe they keep him around as a backup/bridge quarterback.

32 Two answers. First, you said…

Two answers. First, you said "would": they might, because Roseman is fundamentally a reactionary drafter. But he'd have to be a bit crazy to do that, because by any stretch, the OL was the biggest visible problem last year. So it'd be far more likely to be OL/QB than QB/OL. Plus of course DB. And WR's still a problem there and Roseman isn't particularly reflective.

Should they? Absolutely not. They're going to be in the top 5 next year, too, and maybe even in 2022, and they won't have resources to accelerate a rebuild until at least 2023. So it makes much more sense to focus on core rebuilding (DB/DE/OL next year and OL/LB/DB in 2022) then draft a QB in 2023.

They'd even be smarter to trade out of the top 5 next year, just because they really can't afford the cap cost in 2021, which is just... sad.

45 To be honest if you look at…

To be honest if you look at most team's cap situations, they're Not Good, although they're nowhere near as bad as NO/PHI. But next year will have a lot less "move on from expensive guys" than normal, I'd imagine. I get the feeling that the 2021 offseason's going to feel much more boring than normal.

14 Cam Newton has stunk this…

Cam Newton has stunk this game up, obviously. But... this Rams defense is great, and I think there's a case that they're the best in the NFL (DVOA rates them behind Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay and I just don't see that at all. I'm less sure about Football Team and New Orleans, but the former never "seemed" dominant to me, and the latter I saw get carved up like Peking Duck by a team missing its best receiver, so...). And they're a particularly bad matchup for the Patriots's offense, being strong in coverage and having the most dominant interior d-line player in the game, against a team that wants to run up the middle to open up infrequent-but-effective passing. So he and the offense being demolished isn't really unexpected.

On the season, though, Newton's numbers aren't that far off from his last few seasons pre-injury. He's throwing a little less (though more accurately than usual) and rushing a little more (he's likely to set a career high in rushing attempts); he looks diminished, and maybe his "true talent" indeed has, but on the balance he's been about as productive as ever.

The Pats are likely to finish 7-9, with an outside chance at .500 or better, despite like 20% of the team opting out (and Cam had that bout with COVID, too). I can honestly say that both the team overall and Newton personally have done much better than I thought they would, considering everything.

17 I'm biased, but I honestly…

I'm biased, but I honestly think that Rams have a top 3 defense, behind only the Saints and Steelers, and maybe even ahead of them. It's those 3 in a tier, and then the good defenses.

It's the Rams offense that I think is overrated. Maybe I underestimate the run offense, but it feels more like a 10-15th best offense, as opposed to the 4-8th best, where they are now. 

If that special teams can regress back to average from -7.5%, I think this Rams team might be sneaking into the SuperBowl contender tier, with the Steelers, Chiefs, and Saints.

24 Saints Defense

"and the latter [Saints] I saw get carved up like Peking Duck by a team missing its best receiver, so...).

I presume you mean week 3 against the Packers? Because you must have missed that same Saints D throttle TB on SNF, hold ATL's pretty good offense to 25 points in 2 games (one TD, 6 FG) while NO didn't have Brees on the field, and hold the shells of 2 offenses (DEN & SF) to a combined 16 points? The Saints defense now is NOT the same defense that allowed over 30 in their 2 losses in the first half of the year.

 

48 The Saints defense is on an…

In reply to by Joseph

The Saints defense is on an impressive run right now. Of course I expect them to dominate the Eagles tomorrow, but then the game against the Chiefs in week 15 really looms large. That will be interesting.

From a seeding point of view they have to keep winning. The Packers remaining schedule is not difficult, and of course, they hold the h2h. The difference in their Super Bowl win % as the number one seed, with one less game, an extra week's rest, and hosting the Championship game as opposed to potentially going to Lambeau, would be huge. 

49 Saints vs. Chiefs

To me, that game is a SB preview--and the loser will have a much harder time to get to the SB.

Right now, KC and PIT are tied by record, but PIT has tiebreaker b/c of conf. record (KC lost to OAK; PIT lost to WAS). So, if PIT wins out, they are #1, KC doesn't get the bye. KC could easily finish 14-2, and not get a bye. (They could even finish 15-1 without getting the bye!!)

Right now, NO is ahead of GB; if NO wins out, they get the bye; but GB holds the tiebreaker (H2H). NO also has the more difficult schedule--basically that Chiefs game, but also MIN on a short week right after. If GB wins out, I could see the Saints ending up at 13-3 and STILL not getting the bye. This also happened last year and in 2011 (Beastquake game).

The only things that gives me (as a lifelong Saints fan) hope for NO is how much better their defense is playing--although they will need a stellar game from their pass rush against Mahomes, as well as a consistent machine of first downs and points from their offense. This Saints fan thinks they will need 35+points and 25+ first downs to pull it out. A defensive/ST TD wouldn't hurt either.

37 "On the season, though,…

"On the season, though, Newton's numbers aren't that far off from his last few seasons pre-injury. He's throwing a little less (though more accurately than usual) and rushing a little more (he's likely to set a career high in rushing attempts); he looks diminished, and maybe his "true talent" indeed has, but on the balance he's been about as productive as ever."

 

That just demonstrates that Cam Newton has been mediocre to bad for most of his career. He had one great year in 2015 (though him winning the MVP was still very dubious) but has otherwise never been consistently good. That one excellent season has warped perception of his career.

38 This is a terrible season,…

This is a terrible season, even by Newton's standards.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/N/NewtCa00.htm

He's basically at career lows for attempts, completions, TD%, Y/G, ANY/A, QBR, etc. He's down on everything except INTs. His INT% is tied for his career high.

61 "aren't that far off" Even…

"aren't that far off"

Even after Thursday's stinker: ANY/A is 5.23 (5.28 in 2017); QBR 46.3 (48.0 in 2016); INT% 3.3 (also 3.3 in 2017, 2.8 in 2018). He's also got a completion 66.1% (59.1% in 2017, career high 67.9% in 2018) and Y/C of 10.9 (10.6 in 2018). TD%, attempts Y/G, etc. are functions of play calling - and he's running more than ever (career high 9.4 A/G), with the second-highest rushing TD total of his career (and he's somewhat likely to match or surpass his career high if he keeps starting).

This is his worst year (2019 doesn't count) but it's just another notch down in his decline phase since the MVP year. If you want to argue his impact isn't/wasn't entirely captured in the stats, I don't really disagree - but I'd point out he was 6-8 as a starter in 2016 and 2018, and is almost certainly going to match or surpass this year (with, I'd argue, a much weaker surrounding roster than those Panthers teams).

52 Dolphins D giving maximum…

Dolphins D giving maximum effort.   Intercepted Mahomes twice and also have a -30 yard megasack.

64 picks

Mahomes had 2 picks in the first 12 games and 3 today.

Also, he had a dreadful 30-yard sack.  And yet the Chiefs are way ahead.

I think it's underreported just how good they are.  They were clever to lose a game early so all the hype went to Pittsburgh.  The Steelers are going to have trouble with the Bills today and the Browns later this season.  I see the Chiefs getting the #1 seed and cruising at least to the AFCCG.

I  know, not exactly a risky prediction.

65 The Dolphins have pulled to…

In reply to by RickD

The Dolphins have pulled to within six.  

Actually my original post is still accurate.  MIA defense holding KC to 21 points on offense (KC got 9 points from defense and special teams), is a pretty remarkable effort.

68 Seems likely, although I…

In reply to by RickD

Seems likely, although I have to point out that over the last 6 weeks they haven't really dominated anyone (today was probably their most dominant and it ended up being a 6 point game), including some pretty mediocre opponents (namely Denver and Carolina). The matchup with New Orleans will be very interesting. I also think Chargers at the end might be a bit of a trap game, as despite their terrible record they are capable of intermittent excellence on both sides of the ball, and Lynn might be coaching for his job.

54 Bears looking good vs…

Bears looking good vs. Texans, hopefull they can break their 6 game losing streak. 

55 Henry rumbles for 47 yards,…

Henry rumbles for 47 yards, giving him 170 with 13 min left in the 3rd quarter. Might AP's nfl record be in reach? 

56 Miami got as many breaks as…

Miami got as many breaks as they could hope for in the early going (2 picks and a recovered fumble) but weren't able to capitalize sufficiently (10 pts and a missed FG), and now the Chiefs are murderizing them. 28-10 after a punt return TD.

3 picks in this game and I'd give exactly zero culpability to the QBs on any; they all hit the receivers in both hands at chest height and they just couldn't hold on. Miami also had quite a few drops. It's like they stored the balls in a tank of olive oil or something.

59 Can't remember the last time…

Can't remember the last time a DPI was called on a Hail Mary (MIN-TB).  2009 CLE-DET was the last one I can remember. 

Of course the Bruce Arians forgets about his own catchphrase and kicks a FG from the 1 yard line.

60 Mitch Trubisky is on fire…

Mitch Trubisky is on fire today.  Clearly pissed off about all the talk about how the Bears passed on Watson and Mahomes to take him!

62 You know, their remaining…

You know, their remaining schedule is MIN, JAX, and GB - defenses that are decent, horrible, and mediocre, respectively. If he runs up some big numbers (especially in the last 2 games - and noting that GB might be resting their starters), I wonder if he'll get an extension after all (as a Packers fan, I really hope so).

67 You would think I’d like the…

You would think I’d like the Bears to keep Trubisky also, but he always shreds the Lions defense.  I jokingly said last week the Lions should sign him as a backup just so they never have to play him again. 

66 Haason Reddick breakout game…

Haason Reddick breakout game: 5 sacks, including one to seal the win just now on 4th down. I've only seen this game in bits and pieces, but it looked like he's mostly just too fast for the tackles (mostly Andrew Thomas although it looked on the highlights like at least one was on the RT), with one nice shedding of the block to get Jones holding the ball too long.

70 Colts go for it?

I wonder if Frank Reich will regret kicking for 3 with one second left at the one yard line just before the half.  Right now not an issue, but it might be....

78 Part of the value of a FG at that distance

In reply to by Bobman

comes from going into the half, so if they'd miss the TD, they aren't pinning the offense deep. Take the points that is more likely to occur (a 20 yard FG for this instance), otherwise the possibility of a safety is more appealing other times.

72 WFT defense is NASTY

that D-line is going to give teams nightmares in the playoffs

74 And Now the Packers

become the clear favorite for the #1 seed. become the clear favorite to go to the SB, And Rodgers just closed the MVP gap on Mahomes a little more. But he'll gladly let his State Farm buddy have the award if they win next week against the Saints--  Rams may be toughest competition left in the NFC-- who knows?

76 The Bills look like they're…

The Bills look like they're wearing some sort of 80s Patriots throwback uniforms.

77 Roughing the passer…

Roughing the passer supersedes an otherwise offsetting penalty. First time I've seen that.

80 Buffalo may win a Division title

If the Bills win the Division title this year it would be the 1st since Jim Kelly and the Bills won it in 1995. No QB has ever been harder to replace than Jim Kelly. The last QB to win a playoff game for Buffalo was also Jim Kelly. All of that was 25 years ago. 

81 If Ralph Wilson doesn't…

If Ralph Wilson doesn't force Wade Phillips to start Rob Johnson instead of Doug Flutie for the 1999 wildcard game, there's never a chance for a Music City Miracle.  Johnson was horrible, fumbling and bumbling around - there's no way Flutie sabotages his defense's efforts to that extent.

#icecoldhottakes

PS Meddling like this is the sort of thing that leads to 25-year droughts.

83 How about 1957

Did you forget about Tobin Rote leading the Lions to a League Championship in 1957 ? But after that-nothing. That is why 1 of my favorite lines when I hear Elway only won because of T. Davis I like to say-Terrell Davis guaranteed the Broncos the same amount of success in the playoffs that Barry Sanders guaranteed the Lions-exactly NONE. 

84 I guess

In reply to by Bob Smith

I guess I should say did I forget about Tobin Rote ? Actually I was thinking along the lines of the Super Bowl Era.

85 Back to Jim Kelly

In reply to by Bob Smith

Not only was Kelly the hardest to replace in the S.B. era, but he also did more with less and was the classic overachiever. Consider this: in the S.B. run ('90 thru '93) the Bills were 9-4 in the playoffs but yet they were the worst Defense on the field (statistically speaking) in 12 of those 13 games. That is using Official NFL Rankings.

86 On top of that

On top of that 2 of those S.B. teams ('91 and '93) were Officially Ranked next-to-last on Defense. They were Ranked 27th out of only 28 teams on Defense but yet Kelly had them in the Super Bowl. What an overachiever.

95 Officially Ranked

The NFL still (at least I think they do) uses Yards Given Up as their Official Ranking for Defense. I like to add up both Rankings to get a better overall summation for a defense-in other words Points Given Up Ranking AND Yards Given Up Ranking.

97 You are posting at a site…

You are posting at a site that uses a more comprehensive measure of defense , shouldn't you be using that (DVOA) to determine  best defense. Yards and points allowed depend on opponents and situation.

100 Post it

Post the numbers that this site has for the Bills Defense in '90 thru '93 as compared to their opponents but keep in mind that it won't change or invalidate the Official NFL Rankings from those years.

87 The GIants deserve all the…

In reply to by Bob Smith

The GIants deserve all the credit in the world for figuring out how to beat that 1990 team, though. By the time the playoffs arrived, that was the best offense in football, as the Raiders found out rather forcefully.

'91 was better for the whole year, but they a.) got the unstoppable '91 Washington team in the SB, and b.) had a horrible defense as you can have with Bruce Smith and Cornelius Bennett involved, with I believe their two starting corners out against the best DVOA team of all-time.

After that, Kelly and Thomas were doing it with mirrors. I have no idea how the '93 team even got to the SB, since they just weren't good enough to be there.

89 The S.B. game with the Giants

The S.B. game with the Giants in '90 came down to a flat-out "missed" field goal by the Bills. I would agree with you more if the Giants had blocked that kick. I give Kelly a half credit for winning a S.B. since he had his team in position to win it all depending on a field goal attempt to end the game.

98 One of my pet peeves — Norwood did not choke

Bob I’m a Jim Kelly fan (I was at his first Bills regular season game), but I think he came just short of doing his job.  What almost everyone omits about the Norwood miss is that it was a long FG attempt — 47 yards.  That isn’t a gimme today and was even less so in 1991, and it was long for Scott Norwood.  His known weakness was long field goals (I knew that watching the game; and it’s also noted in his Wikipedia article; and a separate Wikipedia article reports that the announcers said in real time that the attempt was at the outer edge of his range, especially on natural grass as distinguished from the turf at Rich Stadium).  For example, to that point in his career, in his 6 seasons, he had never made a 50 yard FG (0 for 6).  Looking at Pro Football Reference, I added up the 40-49 yard FG range statistics for the entire league to 89 misses, 143 made, and 47 yards is on the higher end of that range.  Norwood was 6 for 10 in that range that year, and his longest made FG was 48 yards.

 I remember thinking in real time that the offense had not quite done enough to get into position (and had not fought for the marginal yards).  Yes it would have been good for Norwood to make the long field goal, but that was just not what he did as a football player.  Calling his miss a choke (not that you did! Many people do, however, including a CBS News article on the supposed biggest chokes in sports history) is wrong.

92 Stop him?  The Browns look…

Stop him?  The Browns look like they've never seen him play before, let alone have a clue how to defend against him.

Unfortunately, he's now hurt, and with RG3 also out, it's 3rd stringer time.

93 Browns go for 2, down 14 in…

Browns go for 2, down 14 in Q4, convert, and now they've scored again to go up by 1.

Decision to go for 2 was made easier by the Browns K missing his prior 1 point PAT.  Ravens also had a 1 point PAT blocked.

94 Down by 1 and playing their…

Down by 1 and playing their 3rd stringer, Ravens still march down the field, mostly on running plays the Browns know are coming, but can't stop.  Then as we reach the 2 minute warning, the 3rd stringer (McSorley) gets hurt and now the Ravens have no QB.  Except Jackson comes running up from the clubhouse and is coming back into the game.

I'm confused.  If Jackson was capable of playing, why wasn't he on the field with the game on the line?  If he's not healthy, what's he doing back out there?  All I can figure is he was getting checked out and the medical exam finished exactly when McSorley got hurt.

Anyway, on his first play back in the game, Jackson throws a TD pass and then the 2 point conversion is good and the Browns are down by 7 with 1:50 left.

EDIT: MNF is drunk.  Browns just went down the field to tie the game 42-all, but only spent 50 seconds to do so.  Ravens will get the ball back with a minute still left on the clock to win the game.  Assuming the Browns make the PAT to tie the game.

EDIT #2:  Tucker kicks 55 yard FG for the win.  Hunt should have fallen down at the 1 instead of scoring as quickly as he did on the final Browns drive.

96 Simply Put, One of the Best Games I Have Ever Seen

other than some soft coverage by the Ravens, i can't knock anyone in that game. Both QBs were extraordinary, the fight from both teams was incredible, and the Jackson locker room play will go down in NFL history.