Week 15 Open Discussion

For those curious, Jets are back in the running for worst net points ever. '77 Bucs have the record at -277. Jets are at -210 with three games to go. Those games are against the 9-4 Rams, the 9-4 Browns, and the 6-7 Patriots. They need to lose by a cumulative 67 points. That's 22.34 points per game. I know, it's a tough ask, but if anyone can do it, the Jets can.

I'd give them a 1:1 shot at having a net negative points differential of -255. The Rams under McVay don't really run the score up. Same with the Patriots and that anemic passing attack. The Browns might, but I think the Jets will lose by only about 15 points per game from here on out.

 Anybody else get that reference that Joe Buck made a couple minutes ago during the game?

It was a Mel Brooks line from blazing saddles. 

Awesome.   I told my sons when we first saw the movie that they could never discuss it outside the house or quote it in front of others. At least Buck   didn’t say anything that was risky. 

What are the odds that the 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns can uncork their stale champagne this season? 

Kick a FG from 4 yard line.   Punt on 4th and 5 from just outside opponents 40 (net 18 yards), try 46 yard FG on 4th and 3 under 4 minutes left.   If he read Pro Football Outsiders he would know two things, one analytics and two is to keep his awful special teams off the field.  
 

Meanwhile Raiders have three 4th down conversions. 

Botched long snapper holder exchange on record long FG attempt of 65 yards by Raiders time expires denying Badgley of Chargers the opportunity to miss 3 FG attempts in the last four minutes of regulation. 

Raiders have a chance at a game winning 65 yard FG. But the snap is fumbled. Raiders gonna raider? Headed to OT!

Raiders kick a FG to go up 3. Now the chargers need to answer.

It would have been a Chargers classic to lose a fumble inside the 1 and turn a W into an L. But the Chargers recover and win game on next play.  Oh so close, talk about fumble luck!!!

This might be the win that allows Lynn to keep his job...

We've got two games on Saturday: Buffalo (10-3) at Denver (5-8) and San Francisco (5-8) at Green Bay (10-3). Not the most enticing matchups we've ever seen, but hey: it's football! On Saturday!

Green Bay is actually hosting Carolina (4-9), which is one of the more fun teams to watch this season, even if the matchup doesn't have the spicy history of Packers-49ers.

The Silver and Black, teaching me again not to get my hopes up ever.

Aaron Rodgers could hit the 40 TD pass milestone for the season tonight. He would be the only QB in history to do that 3 times. Keep in mind however that only 1 QB in history hit that milestone and then went on to win the S.B. in that same year. That was Kurt Warner and the Rams in '99.

3 Buffalo defensive stops on 3 Denver possessions, (one was a missed long FG) 2 Buffalo TD ‘s on two possessions.   And a muffed punt by Buffalo recovered by Denver turns a game that was becoming a total blowout into a 14-7 game.

I’m verklempt. Talk amongst yourselves. Here’s a topic:

Is Drew Lock realistically salvageable or should the Broncos move on? Discuss.

So I ll consider this the end of his rookie year, and stay the course.

I am more excited about I’m verklempt talk among yourselves and Blazing Saddles references so that I know that others like myself that are not young, spend time having these discussions on this site while watching football.

Teams combine for two muffed punts, a missed FG and missed extra point and the Chargers are not playing.  

Just to be sure that they want to cut Russolino and they do as he misses.   At least he got to play one NFL game

Drink

Being so aggressive with reach for end zone.  Just tuck and if no progress its 2nd down inside one.   Now with fumble its doom.

Panthers 11 points lost on fumble and holding penalty then settle for FG,  and also that the fumble was returned to Carolina territory leading to a GB TD.  I dont think DVOA will be kind to this Packer effort.  But barring a great comeback, its a win.

Its the situation discussed endlessly by the Football Outsiders staff as to why you go for 2 down 21-3 then getting TD.   They would not have taken the FG at the 4 yard line if they knew that the 2 had failed.  

Packers have to be guaranteed to fire their ST coordinator after the season

Looks like the Panthers are abusing the Packers LG (Lucas Patrick) up front on their recent defensive stops. Not sure if they're doing anything other than "employing Derrick Brown" to take advantage, but it's working - and points to an exploitable weakness if he has to keep playing.

Although that last sack wasn't on anybody but Rodgers...

Would've like to see teams take more shots here. The two minute warnings gonna stop the clock anyway so be aggressive and try to finish the game, coming out of the two min warning on another 1st and 10 if successful. 

imo

And the game ends with the same score they had in last years meeting.

They picked the one and only week they could get away with it. Play like that against TENN next week or any playoff matchup and out you go.... I thought the incessant attempts to find Adams or Jones on the flank for a short catch and release pass got tedious. Obviously Panthers sniffed them out or had players capable of short-circuiting them. LaFleur and Rodgers have to show some more imagination going forward. MVS disappeared... Rodgers was under more pressure than in any game this season other than TB.. A few pretty bad drops. Ugly but necessary win is all I'll say.

Seems like their job is almost solely mental (when it's in the leg strength range) and although Bailey had a rough game last week (and the week before), I think giving him a clean slate the next week is the way to go. Acting as if those days didnt happen and allowing him to take chances (in his range at least) when given the opportunity on things like 4th and longs. Maybe if he misses something like a 39 yarder then you can start going for it when he'd be asked to kick longer (maybe do some fakes if it's not that much longer than the one he missed). But reset that mentality when the next game comes as not to hurt his/their  "confidence". 

franchise record.  Guys been money.

Nasty looking injury for Stephon Gilmore

WFT's vaunted edge rushers held in check.  Wilson not sacked and only 2 QB hits.  I'm pretty sure that's because the Hawks are running the ball so much and the FT can't pin their ears back and go after the QB. 

Up 40-7, Tyler Huntley (who?) is in at QB for Baltimore. The Jaguars have really put up a minimal fight today.

Also, check out this big-man play! Baltimore Beatdown on Twitter: "Tyre Phillips recovers the fumble on 3rd & 7 and trucks his way to a first down! https://t.co/MRzc35ihCi" / Twitter

to put their heads down and slide headfirst into the defender to pick up an additional 15 yards on each catch.

NFL needs to do better.

Jets surprisingly up 13-0. I still think Rams come back and win, but this is surprising. 

MIA's WRs without Parker in the lineup look a lot like NE's WRs.  That's not a complement. 

Fortunately, MIA stopped trying to throw in H2 and ran all over NE's D-line for an important win.

Lots of questionable decisions by Belichick in Q4.  Kicking to go down 3 instead of trying 4th-and-4ish.  Not kicking the FG before the 2 minute mark to give them a chance to kick off with enough time to get a stop and so not need to recover an onside kick.  And then even worse, not kicking the FG on 4th-and-something inside of 2 minutes when they needed two scores.  

Looking at the splits it seems as if the TB coaching staff is really good at in game adjustments...and really bad at during the week game planning.

Saints/Chiefs is borderline unwatchable. So slow. Refs taking forever to make rulings and get calls in. Extremely frustrating. 

Some weird plays today. 

How many times have receiving teams returned an onside kick for a TD, as Dallas did today?

And was the 25-46 Lions loss today Scorigami?

Very stupid play by Robinson. Why are you running backwards with less than 20 secs left in the half? Why are you even trying to return the punt?

And with today's loss, the Patriots' string of winning seasons comes to an end. The Patriots had a winning record in every season from 2001 to 2019. The Patriots' 19 consecutive winning seasons falls one short of the NFL record of 20 set by the Dallas Cowboys from 1966 - 1985.

Jets win in part due to their punter making a clean open field tackle on a long punt return by the Rams near the Jets 40.  Then the defense gets a 4 and out and Jets run out the clock.  
 

One of the more improbable results of an improbable season. So aside from the Tank for Trevor implications, for the #1 seed in the NFC now, if KC beats NO, and the Rams beat the Seahawks next week, all the Packers have to do is beat TENN or CHI. Not that either game is a given-- Bears may be fighting for a playoff spot if ARIZ loses to Eagles.

Break up the Jets!

That's amazing - and just shameful for the Rams, who had seemed like a strong dark-horse contender in the NFC of late.

Apparently the Jags are now more likely to get the #1 pick. They will both probably lose out, but the Jets' next 2 games (Cleveland, New England) look somewhat more winnable than the Jags' (Bears - fighting for their postseason lives with this little Trubisky-led run, and Indy). Not sure who owns the tiebreaker if they're both 1-15.

UDPATE: KC-NO announcers said Jags have the tiebreaker over the Jets due to easier strength of schedule.

Everyone who said the Jets were gonna Jets their way out of Lawrence, you appear to have been right. Congratulations?

And unsurprisingly Jets homers are now wanting to build around Darnold instead a ...Fields

Brees is just not right. I don't know if they'd be winning with Hill or Winston, but they could not be doing worse. I get that it's a bad look to pull him, but leaving him in is a de facto forfeit.

Same old lions. Fired their coach but the results are the same. Give up 4 tds to Tannehill and Henry gets 150+ yards.

Because of the Rams loss this week, if the Seahawks win over the Rams at Seattle next week, they would clinch the division.  It's kind of weird, but that would fit in Pete Carroll's way of winning the division.  All four previous NFC West Division championships in Carroll's coaching were won at home against the Rams:

2010: Seahawks 16 Rams 6 

2013: Seahawks 27 Rams 9 

2014: Seahawks 20 Rams 6 

2016: Seahawks 24 Rams 3 

(I really like the Rams less-than-ten-points scores....)

Chiefs just got their 6th non-spread-covering win in a row... that has to be a record!

Its an impossible job but this really happened today.  After a touchback Mark Andrews catches a pass marked just short of the 35.   The refs call for a measurement and it is a first down.  You NEVER have to measure this after a touchback.  The chains were in the wrong spot.  You know every time that you make or miss by inches its luck.  The chains could be in the wrong place.   
 

So Jacksonville challenged the spot and the ball was moved further back and it was no first down.  He really did catch the ball further back but Jacksonville was forced to waste a challenge.

So a challenge can be wasted depending upon next one.   The point is the no need to measure after a touchback.

From the perspective of a Colts fan, oh please, oh please, oh puleeeeze!

He's a fine man, but I'm not sure he's really NFL HC material.  It could have been the "replacing a legend" status in Indy, but I don't think that was the issue in Detroit. I'd love for the Colts to face his teams twice a year.

It wasn't that long ago that the Steelers were the only undefeated team in the NFL.  Now they are struggling against the Bengals.   

Not that he wants advice from me, but JuJu might reconsider that whole dancing on the logo thing.  The NFL is a good gig.  No  sense making it any shorter than it has to be.

Is there statistical evidence that the Steelers consistently play down to inferior competition?

Because that's always been the narrative, anecdotally, and today is providing a particularly compelling anecdote...

Bengals up 17-0, Steelers offense has done diddly poo. 24 yards including -2 yards (!) passing.

The 1986 New York Jets made the playoffs riding a 5  game losing streak. No one else had ever made the playoffs finishing with such a streak.  They were 10-1 fell to 10-6 and then won a playoff game.  Steelers have a shot.

Like a kid likes candy, Pittsburgh is clearly a fraud. The worst AFC playoff team? Right now, it certainly appears so....

Roethlisberger needs some coffee or something. He looks lethargic and has made some dumb mental errors, including missing that LB sitting on the pass route for the pick, and wandering right into the pass-rusher just now.

Kick the field goal.

This is rapidly sliding into yet another What Could Have Been year for the Steelers just like when Shazier went down in 2017.  I'm heartsick to go along with regular sick.

Steelers apparently only the 3rd team to start 11-0 and go on a 3 game losing streak. The 2009 Saints did but that was different, they had the division sewed up early with an inside track on the #1 seed and mostly just tried not to get hurt before cruising to the Super Bowl. The other was... I don't remember anymore, but someone in the '60s I think - who lost their only playoff game that year.

OMG, which team do they prepare for?  Will Pittsburgh come out with fire in their eyes and malice in their hearts after a three-game losing streak, or are they toast?

As a Colt fan, I'm much more nervous now than I was four hours ago, when I figured Indy would be a trap game between an easy Cincy win and a tough Browns finale.  Now... grown professionals with injured pride and the means to reassert themselves can be quite formidable.

Then again, if the warmed over corpse of AJ Green can lead the winning team in receiving yardage (89 passing yards total is not much to brag about, I know), anything's possible.

Villy was clearly overmatched at left tackle yet neither Tomlin nor Fichter made sure he had any TE help on those last critical throws. Don’t understand the complete lack of adjustments.