Saturday Divisional Round Discussion

Hoping the Packers don’t choke

Kupp was a big concern for the Packers D; they've been vulnerable over the middle all season. Donald is always a concern and I doubt his injury will make much difference. Goff doesn't worry me much, but Akers has been getting better all season. The Packers signed Snacks Harrison to help against the rush; he should play about 20 snaps though it could go up or down depending on how close the game is. Sunset in GB today will be around halftime (4:40 CST). Kickoff temp won't be bad with no snow to speak of, but it will feel colder when they come back out of the locker room after halftime. It will be interesting to see how the Rams react, especially if the Pack already has a lead. 

I'll give it a go!

LA@GB : 16-21

BAL@BUF : 24 - 31

CLE@KC : 24 - 45

TB@NO : 38 - 24

LA @ GB -6.5 / 45.5

    LA starts off cold, for reasons very much like @BJR said. And the cold. They make some hay in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but the Pack is too much and pulls away late. 17-31.

Props on nearly nailing that game. What you didn't account for is the crappy GB special teams making the score so screwy. Though admittedly the GB special teams failed at something (extra point snap) that isn't what they normally fail at. But it's why LA went for 2 to get to 18 instead of being at 17. GB really should have been 34 instead of 32. But I'll grant that getting a FG at the end of the 1st half in 29 seconds isn't a gimme. But yeah you nailed the score and mostly the game flow, GB just took their time and scored a TD in the 2Q that was mostly from a drive in 1Q.

You were off by exactly one point for each team. Terrible job. 

Actually Jenkins is that good. I figured a healthy Donald could beat him once every 35 or so plays. What I didn't expect is that they would keep him on Jenkins.

Huh? I think he's currently the best player on the Packers OL, including Linsley. (Bakhtiari is better, but I'm not counting him.) The Rams will need to move Donald elsewhere if Donald is to be effective. 

Yes the laser from Rodgers made it basically uncoverable.

Looked to me as if Adams was running toward the line at the snap. Even on replay. 

I think GB is playing offense smartly though. The Rams are trying to stop the deep passes and the Packers have been patiently finding the underneath routes. The Rams need a pass rush because they aren't punishing the Packers. 

This game is the GB offense. This is what they've done all season. Yes, usually they will find a big play against a lesser defense and those opportunities are baked in to be taken, but the offense is designed to do this. It's built to just hold the ball and trudge down the field. If the opportunity is there to get a big chunk, they'll take it. If not, oh well.

This is not the first game they have had to lean on the running backs and short passes either.

And the rams score to make it a 6 point game.

The Rams really missing Kupp. They're getting most of their passing success up the middle where Kupp thrives. They exploited that middle in their last drive. 

Rodgers had three bad throws and one great one on that drive. Throw to Adams was way behind, throw to Lazard (I think) should’ve been picked and never should’ve been thrown, and the final one should’ve been thrown bc MVS was open with a good throw but again the throw was not placed well at all.

I agree those weren't great throws, but I think they only happened because there was so little time left so a turnover doesn't hurt as much. GB knew they were getting the ball to start the second half so while losing the chance to get 3 more would suck, they could still make it a 2 score game at the start of the second half.

The GB line is very good, but despite all my praise of Jenkins, Donald isn't playing like Donald. 

But Rodgers didn't have his lowest sack rate, by 3%, just because of the scheme. The line is good, and it's coached amazingly well considering all the injuries.

well, the decisions to throw into coverage more than the passes... the previous two made up for it, particularly the throw to Tonyan... If Pack can come out and score with the ball here, they'll have Goff where they want him-- 16 pts behind...

The Colts were down 14 just fifty seconds into the fourth quarter. The only important thing was scoring a touchdown, which they did by mixing in some runs against a defense that’s as expecting a pass. The Rams are in the same point—in fact, they’re a long way ahead of where the Colts were. The real problem is going to be stopping GB’s offense. 

Agreed, but that play was also an opportunity I didn't think would be there. The Rams secondary rarely shifted to help with the run, which is what GB works to make happen, and help create separation like that. 

I just didn't expect them to get an opportunity like that. I expected the runs and the quick passes to Adams and opportunities over the middle for Lazard, Tonyan, and ESB. I expected LA to limit YAC. I expected MVS to beat coverage once or twice with his 50/50 chance to make the play. We saw all that, though it was MVS getting those plays not ESB. I've been surprised by the multiple down field opportunities for Lazard and Tonyan though.

This LA defense is great, and still played well, but without the offense they didn't have enough.

Call me crazy, but I think the Green Bay special teams might not be any good.

I thought outside of a couple of blown coverages, the rams coverage units held up quite well. They lacked pass rush and it showed. 

GB's offensive line deserves a lot of credit. Yup Donald was hurt, but they created run lanes and gave Rodgers time to scan down the field and then find the right read if it was covered. 

Maybe not so great on defense against at team without their best receiving threat, though.

Well, objectively, Bakhtiari is a very good left tackle. Donald is one of the very best defenders that ever played football so that's not really a fair comparison.

I'm good with the first three (I agree that Harbaugh is that good.), but only Ariens has a track record among the rest. I'd consider 4-7 yet to be determined, but MLF is building a great argument for #4. 

It’s amazing how smart having a 1st ballot HOF QB makes you look.

Seifert was what, 1-15 without one?

Other than Stefanski, the other guys have a significantly better sample size. That’s a tough list to rank. 

I'm not inclined to give MLF much credit honestly. Does Adam gase deserve credit for coaching the the highest scoring NFL offense of all time

Arians turned an old (I believe he was 36 at the time) Carson Palmer into one of the best QBs in the league (arguably should have won MVP) and his team into one of the best in the league in 2015. That's significantly more impressive than anything LaFleur has done. Why Arians would be last on that list I have no idea.

"Some radio show" is where this kind of take belongs. Winz!

When you add Y1 + Y2 of DVOA, LaFleur comes out well behind Doug Pederson and Mike Tomlin, and just barely ahead of McCarthy, or Bobby Ross.

He's put together a very good offense this season, but it's too early to say more. And, frankly, why would we want to?

Good, not great coach who sqaundered some of the best seasons in a Top 5 all-time QB's career. It is very fortunate for GB and Rodgers that they got rid of him when they did-- I wish it had been a year or two earlier, but then again LaFleur would almost certainly not have been hired....

Not to mention McCarthy looked pretty terrible in Dallas this year. That said, last year's Packers weren't nearly as good as that NFCCG appearance would suggest.

But Donald was clearly a shell of himself, and the Packers had a bye. They’ll have a much stiffer challenge next week no matter which team wins tomorrow. 

Trust me. I'm not feeling smug. I didn't think the Pack would make it look easy and they didn't. I still give them a 25% chance at best of winning it all. I'm grateful their gawdawful special teams coverage didn't fail them this game. I'm hopeful they win, but I never expected them to get this far this year. AR has been playing unbelievable though, as has their OL. I also believe Bakhtiari is a huge loss and the Rams surprisingly never exploited it. They had one five-man rush all game and it forced a rare punt, so it was five-on-four all game. 

At how little credit the parts of this team that aren't a HOF QB get... How many people thought they could amass nearly 500 yards today-- with nearly 200 on the ground... They could easily lose next week or in the SB-- but OTOH, they might simply be the best balanced team remaining and are about to win a pretty impressive title given the competition...It is why they play the games...

Then it’s a good bet the Ravens lost by 25, because grinding clock is the only reason for them to get anywhere close to that number. 

I think the FG miss can definitely be blamed on the wind, it drifted the same direction as the goalpost flags were blowing

It’s usually much different on the field than it shows on the goalposts. It’s a very weird stadium in that regard. 

... let’s all agree it’s a big factor. 

I can imagine feeling so amped as a fan and then hurling your tv remote when you see plays like that.

At this point if they try any more long field goals it’s a coaching disaster. They shouldn’t have kicked there.

I’m sure Ravens fans aren’t too happy, but the Bills got a rare red-zone FG, a rare FG miss, and a blown fumble on a promising drive. Allen also missed a wide-open bomb for a touchdown into the wind. I wouldn’t fire up the doom train yet. 

Kinda comes with the territory. 

Obviously, both teams have left points on the field, but I feel as if the Ravens could have exactly 6, given that they haven’t sniffed the red zone, whereas Buffalo should have at least double digits and could have 17 with some better play. Second-half adjustments will be key. Buffalo has been lights-out in the third quarter for two straight months, so we’ll see what Daboll can come up with. (I’m saying this with 1:03 left on the first half. Maybe Baltimore can drive before the half.)

And because the Ravens are great at stopping the run. 

I'm guessing they don't believe they can run it on the Baltimore front 7 so why waste downs doing it.

And that's why they're really good this year!

They’d probably be down 13-9, minimum, without it. Fumble luck has broken their way so far, too: they dropped two deep in their own territory but recovered both, whereas Allen turfed it at midfield but didn’t surrender possession. Buffalo’s been better all year, including during Baltimore’s hot streak, so they need something else to break their way. Maybe that’s a big turnover. Maybe that’s more wind. Maybe it’s a big Jackson run. Or maybe they won’t get anything. Who knows?

This reminds me of a game between the Pack and Bills in Buffalo. It was an extremely windy day. Bledsoe couldn't throw so the Packers sold out stopping the run. Favre could still make some throws. It's not as windy today but Allen, like Favre, has the arm strength to make a difference. 

Just really bad by Jackson. Nothing else to it. Bad read, bad eye discipline, bad everything.

Taron Johnson.  Maybe the greatest single play in Buffalo Bills history.  Top five certainly...

Taron Johnson.  Maybe the greatest single play in Buffalo Bills history.  Top five certainly...

Not happy with it, but happy with the result. When in doubt, blitz the newbie. 

But I’m with you: paying Jackson a ton of money is going to be very problematic. 

But I’m not convinced Jackson could take advantage. I don’t know who he’s working with—I imagine he’s working with somebody—but if I were him, I’d give Jordan Palmer a call if he hasn’t already. 

I go the other way. I don't think this offense will utilize a deep group of receivers. I think they are better off going heavy at offensive line and defense. Lamar in an offense unto himself. Save on offense where you can and go heavy elsewhere.