Nick Chubb Gets Paid

Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb
Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

The Cleveland Browns have come to an agreement on a contract extension for running back Nick Chubb.

A second-round draft pick out of Georgia in 2018, Chubb was third in rushing DYAR last season behind Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook despite missing four games. He was second in DVOA behind J.K. Dobbins. In his first three seasons he has rushed for 3,557 yards; only Henry and Ezekiel Elliott have more rushing yards over that timespan.

Comments

16 comments, Last at 08 Aug 2021, 1:39pm

1 They always fall for it.

Even the supposed analytically sound teams.

I guess they're telling themselves it's not the most. But it doesn't sound like they be able to get out of it until the last year. 

Now second in AAV paid to RB/FB behind the Saints (remember Hunt isn't playing on the min)? Not to slander Chubb but eh, let the last year of his contract play out and see how it goes. Probably did it for the jersey sales tbh.

5 Yeah, I tend to agree. I…

Yeah, I tend to agree. I haven't seen the structure of the deal, so am unsure how easy it is for the Browns to exit the contract early should it blow up in their face. But, from what I have seen, it's for only three years and ends when Chubb is still 28 years old. That seems reasonably low risk and the price isn't exorbitant in a vacuum.

Overall, the Browns do have a fair bit of money invested in their two starting RBs. But, given (i) the importance of the running game to their offense, (ii) the long-term uncertainty they currently have at QB, and (iii) their ability to retain Mayfield on a cost-controlled contract for another two years ($10m in 2021 and $18m in 2022), this doesn't seem like a terrible move by the Browns.

6 You could argue that Hunt's…

You could argue that Hunt's contract is "cost controlled" also in the sense that his past off-field issues have lowered it by millions (and reduced its length of years.)

I don't think the Browns see much "uncertainty" with Baker, but I do think they'll hold off a bit into the season on his deal.  (He has often been rumored to be the closest to an extension of the "Class of 2018" although some people say Lamar is.)

8 Well...

AZ probably remembers extending a day 2, 220 something lbs RB to a 3y/$30 something mil contract before the end of their 4th (last) year of their rookie deal. 

But like I said, passed off as not the most/worst but that =/= good. 

9 Um, David Johnson is not in…

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

Um, David Johnson is not in the same galaxy as Chubb in terms of consistent production and generally being healthy...

10 Um, well he WAS.

herewego"brown" I'm guessing you're a fan of the team so this reaction is kinda expected

Both 25 AV through first 3 seasons...despite not "generally being healthy" which actually was just a freak injury. Ironically both players played 16 games each their first two years then missed games their 3rd year... but Johnson could catch! And was a unanimous 1st team All Pro! (both peaked in Y2)

AZ too thought it was a fine deal...at the time. May look fine now. Miss a few more games. And in two years you're looking to package him with a 2nd, but I don't think you'll be able to get Davante Adams, DK Metcalf, Justin Jefferson, or whoever. 

 

11 Freak injuries or not,…

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

Freak injuries or not, injuries are part of the game.  A lot worse injury record for Johnson than Chubb to me?

Chubb had 16/16/12 GP, 9/16/12 GS, 5.2/5.0/5.6 YPA, 7.4/7.7/9.4 YPcatch...Johnson had 16/16/1, 5/16/1, 4.6/4.2/2.1, and the only better category us 12.7/11.0/11.2 YPCatch.

AV is the only stat that seems comparable...

12 So you are a Browns fan?

Good to confirm.

But Chubb played behind a better OL too. Which explains a lot of the variance in running.  

Another better category is Y/Tch of 5.4/5.3/5.9 vs 6.4/5.7/5.3

What's similar is, despite a few less games started, Johnson played 267 more offensive snaps his first two years (and 9 more on ST!)

AV was the SAME despite playing 11 less games due to a freak injury that could happen to Chubb at anytime. And they run the ball a lot. RBs get hit a lot. Which is why if this takes away from others, like the OL, things can go downhill fast. Like Baker is extension eligible right now so....yeah. Good luck with that and...Denzel Ward is up too? Oof. What a class but man they decided to pay the RB first? Tsk tsk. Fan support really does guide teams sometimes. No way they aren't paying Baker either due to the emotional attachment of taking them to the playoffs in forever. 

Jason explains it well here. Not sure where the numbers come from but cap savings isn't higher than dead until the last year, as I thought. Not great when 2023 is guaranteed next year, 2022. 

13 So DJohnson running up very…

So DJohnson running up very high mileage in his first 2 seasons before his near-full-season injury is bad news for...Chubb? Who has K.Hunt to ensure he never has to cross the 370 threshold?

The likely 2022 capsplosion will make the numbers easier to handle than you'd think.

The OL might have to be replaced over the coming years, but the "plug-and-play"ness of the team is in the OL, moreso than in the RBs as many argue is "fungible, " simply because Callahan is probably one of the best ever at his job.

Still not sure about prioritizing extending Ward given his very frequent injuries, and how the longevity of the position isn't all that great.

I just don't see a lot of national criticism of this deal from what I've seen on twitter and other media.  Criticizing it might be a tough hill to die on.

14 Wait what?

High mileage? I only mentioned the snaps because you stated starts, implying it was a huge difference. That 370 wasn't even in the year he got hurt. Chubb had 13 more touches through two years too. Talk about "mileage" lol

"Capsplosion" is for every team. That's not an edge. That doesn't change the fact they paid their RB first. The plug and playness is in the OL...not the RB...yeah definitely a Browns fan. Callahan is the best so that's why they spent a lot on OL? Literally second to Jax in $ spent this year. 

Yes, don't pay the more valuable position because he'll be...25 at the end of his contract. Yes. Give it to the RB. Who will be...25 end the end of his... Talking about the longevity of positions while propping up RUNNING BACK as the counter. WHEW!

The tough hill to die on is thinking a RB is worth it because your team paid for him. Just because it wasn't the most, again, doesn't mean it's good. CMC didn't miss a game...until he got paid. RBs take a pounding. No criticism because it's not the most and he's good. Doesn't mean the contract is. 

Contract up on Spotrac now. Confirmed. Yep potential out not until 2024. Split hairs all you want with David Johnson but that's an extremely similar case and it didn't work out (well...until BOB, good luck repeating that). Of course there are a ton of other cases that are a little more different but hey...Jason explained how his tags would've went but go ahead and give him more just to cut him later and not get a comp pick.

15 That's Generous of You

In reply to by Raiderfan

Sadly, they have reached for some other RBs that didn't give them more than 'meh'. When it comes to RBs and WRs, Belichick is like a former gambling addict who has walked away and put his life in order. 'RBs are fungible', he tells himself. Or, 'There's always a Blount on a trash heap somewhere.' Or: 'I can get good value from a scat back in the 5th round.' And he stays away. But then every 5th or 6th draft he gets the fever and grabs a late-first rounder. 'Are you sure you want to do this, Bill?' his bookie asks. 'This time is different,' Belichick pants. 'It's a sure thing!'

16 To be fair

Michel was more of a pass catcher. But yeah, still the wrong pick, regardless of what Chubb is. At least he's not digging into it.