QR Week 6: Gaskin Gags in England

In one trip to the United Kingdom in 1985, Chicago resident Clark Griswold managed to cause several car wrecks, collide with a bicyclist, and level a UNESCO World Heritage Site to the ground. It was perhaps the worst trip to England that any American has ever made … until Myles Gaskin and the Miami Dolphins arrived in London this past week. In just a wee bit of game action against Jacksonville, Gaskin surpassed thresholds for both rushing and receiving incompetence that nobody else has in the last half-decade.

Gaskin first rose to prominence at the University of Washington, where he set school records with 5,323 yards and 57 touchdowns rushing. With that track record of production, BackCAST was somewhat optimistic about Gaskin's pro potential despite some mundane physical skills. The Dolphins drafted him in the seventh round in 2019, but he didn't play much as a rookie, buried on Miami's depth chart behind Kalen Ballage, Patrick Laird, Mark Walton, and Kenyan Drake. He finished the year with just 36 runs and seven catches.

Gaskin broke out somewhat in 2020. He only started seven games, opening the year as a backup behind Matt Breida and Jordan Howard and later missing six games due to a sprained MCL and a stint on the COVID list, but he still led the Dolphins with 584 rushing yards and 972 yards from scrimmage. Our advanced numbers weren't impressed with his running ability, labeling him below replacement level, but he was reliable, finishing 12th in success rate. And he was great in the passing game, finishing first in DVOA and fourth in DYAR as a receiver. In his last three games of the year, he caught 11 of 12 targets for 190 yards (17.3 yards per catch!) with a pair of touchdowns.

So far this season, Gaskin is again the Dolphins' leading rusher, though he has fallen behind tight end Mike Gesicki in yards from scrimmage. Just last week he was one of our top running backs, mostly due to his 10 catches for 74 yards and two touchdowns. Against Jacksonville, however, he was relegated to committee duty. He played 25 snaps against the Jaguars, as many as Malcolm Brown and only six more than Salvon Ahmed (his former Huskies teammate in college). Ahmed led the crew with seven carries, while Brown and Gaskin had five each. Why did Gaskin run so infrequently? Let's break down the results of his carries, one by one:

• 1-yard loss on first-and-10 on the first play of the game.
• 3-yard gain on first-and-10.
• 4 yards and a fumble (recovered by Miami) on first-and-10.
• 2-yard gain on second-and-17.
• 1-yard gain on first-and-10.

That's five carries for 9 yards, no first downs, no successful plays, a 20% stuff rate, and a long run of just 4 yards … which nearly resulted in a turnover. If your lead back was struggling that badly, you'd turn to the options on your bench too. (In Gaskin's defense, his teammates didn't fare much better—Ahmed and Brown combined for less than 4.0 yards per carry with negative DYAR between them.)

Gaskin did lead Dolphins running backs with six targets, but he wasn't very effective there either:

• incomplete pass on first-and-10
• incomplete pass on third-and-15
• incomplete pass on third-and-6
• reception for 5-yard gain on second-and-9
• reception for no gain on first-and-20
• incomplete pass on third-and-1

That's 2.5 yards per catch, which is awful, but it will happen once in a while when running backs only catch two passes. The real problem is that Gaskin only caught two passes. None of these targets were thrown more than 5 yards downfield; they were all screens, swings, and checkdowns, the kind of passes quarterbacks throw specifically because they are easy to complete. This isn't entirely Gaskins' fault; Tua Tagovailoa threw one pass into the dirt several yards short of Gaskins' feet on one pass and another way behind him on a route over the middle. But Gaskins dropped both of his other two incomplete targets. He also bobbled his reception on first-and-20, which is one reason it went for no gain—by the time he secured the catch, Jacksonville defenders had closed in for the kill. His last target was the most damaging. It was originally ruled a reception and a first down for Miami right at midfield, but replay showed the ball hitting the ground, leading to a Dolphins punt, which in turn led to a Jaguars drive that ended in a game-tying field goal.

That works out to -28 rushing DYAR and -27 receiving DYAR, worst among running backs in both categories this week. The combined total of -55 DYAR makes this the worst game for a running back so far this season. That's not an historic total; there were three games worse than that last year. What's notable is not Gaskins' total DYAR, but the distribution: he's the first running back to hit -25 DYAR as a rusher and a receiver in the last five years.

The last player to go -25/-25 was Kenneth Farrow of the then-San Diego Chargers in Week 15 of 2016, an outing that proved to be the last game of his only season in the NFL. Other little-known players in this table include Joe Aska, Nick Goings, and a bunch of dudes named Tony. However, there are also plenty of superstars. Shaun Alexander! Jerome Bettis! Terrell Davis! LaDainian Tomlinson! Ricky Watters! By combined DYAR, Ricky Williams had the worst game in this table, and also the second-worst. Steven Jackson shows up twice too. If you play long enough as a dual-threat back, eventually you're going to have one of those days where nothing goes right.

Gaskin's totals of five rushes and 11 combined runs and targets are both the lowest of any player listed here. It's very rare to see someone accumulate so much negative value so quickly. It's also a sign that this is likely a small-sample size fluke. Gaskin ranked among the top 20 players at his position in both rushing and receiving DYAR coming into the game, and he'll likely get back near those levels before the season is done. He's stuck in a crowded backfield on what might be the most disappointing team in the league, but he's a better player than what he showed in Merrie Olde Englande.