Waiver Wire Week 7: Alex Collins Tops Khalil Herbert as Best Available RB

Seattle Seahawks RB Alex Colllins
Seattle Seahawks RB Alex Colllins
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

NFL Week 7 - The 2021 season is shaping up as the Year of the Day 3 Running Back. With Travis Etienne out for the year and Javonte Williams and Trey Sermon playing less than many expected, later draft picks such as Chuba Hubbard, Elijah Mitchell, and now Khalil Herbert have picked up the slack and excelled in featured roles. Herbert's Week 6 production nearly landed him the headline of the Week 7 waiver wire, but a possibility for a more extended run as a lead back shifts that spotlight to Seattle.

Roster percentages are for ESPN/Yahoo.

Alex Collins, RB, Seattle Seahawks


Head coach Pete Carroll sounded more pessimistic in his explanation of Chris Carson's persistent neck injury than he did in his eventual label of day-to-day. And now we know. Carson is on injured reserve and will miss Weeks 7 and 8 at the very least. That may well be all since the Seahawks have their bye in Week 9 to allow Carson extra time to recover. But the uncertainty of his injury and Collins' workload in his recent absences make the latter back at least a temporary RB2. For me, that justifies as a substantial FAB expenditure. Collins declined a bit from a 71% snap share in Week 5 to a 60% one in Week 6 because of a seemingly non-serious hip injury, but he has looked like a bell-cow back with 17 and 21 total touches. And he has been as effective with 4.7 yards per carry as he was in his breakout 2017 Ravens season before off-field problems derailed his NFL career. He has achieved that efficiency in matchups against the Rams and Steelers, both top-five in run defense DVOA last season. I expect similar results against another top-five run defense in the Saints in Week 7. And after that, Collins could threaten a top-10 weekly ranking facing a Jaguars team that is bottom-10 against the run and bottom-10 overall on defense.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 36%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: Yes

Khalil Herbert, RB, Chicago Bears


With David Montgomery injured and Damien Williams on the COVID list, Herbert was the Bears' bell-cow back by default on Sunday. But he played up to that role with 97 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries and now has a strong 4.5-yard average on 40 carries this season. That bested my expectations for a sixth-round rookie, but Herbert continues to demonstrate exceptional vision to find cutback lanes and turn would-be losses into substantial gains.

In better circumstances for fantasy, Herbert would justify a 100% FAB bid. But he has several roadblocks between him and sustained fantasy value. First, Williams will likely return from the COVID list in Week 7 or 8. Montgomery will likely return from his sprained MCL after the team's Week 10 bye. And in the interim, Herbert will have to contend with a difficult schedule of opponents in the Bucs, 49ers, and Steelers, all ranked in the upper half of teams in run defense DVOA. Herbert may have more value as a late-season handcuff than he does as a short-term starter in shallow formats. As such, I wouldn't exhaust my FAB for him in a week when others might because of the lack of standout options on the waiver wire.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 21%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins


Waddle has been decently prolific all season, but his 10-catch, 70-yard, two-touchdown outburst in London on Sunday underscored how even a modest quarterback improvement could make a major difference for his fantasy value. With Jacoby Brissett under center, Waddle has a pedestrian 18.5% target share. But with Tua Tagovailoa there, Waddle has a 26.9% share that would be top-10 among wide receivers if he had it for the full season. I wouldn't count on that extreme standard. Waddle likely owes some portion of his extreme share to the Jaguars game script and absences of his teammates Will Fuller and Preston Williams. But Waddle has also played 79% or more of offensive snaps every week, and his three touchdowns in Tagovailoa's two healthy games are decently supported by three targets inside the 5-yard line and 1.7 expected touchdowns. The Dolphins don't have the bye most teams do after their trip to London, so invest in Waddle now to take advantage of the team's plus Falcons and Texans matchups in Weeks 7 and 9.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 12%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Zach Ertz, TE, Arizona Cardinals


Ertz caught a break for his fantasy value with a trade to the Cardinals over the weekend. I don't think that will continue his temporary TE1 status from Thursday night with Dallas Goedert sidelined—Maxx Williams saw a 15.5% target share in Weeks 2 to 4 that was just 14th-best at the position. But with Williams out for the season with a knee injury, Ertz should have an unquestioned role as a team's No. 1 tight end for the first time since 2018. Williams played 80%, 74%, 76%, and 58% of offensive snaps when healthy the first four weeks. Ertz can meet that standard even if he can't dramatically exceed it in the back nine of his career and in an offense built more around wide receiver talent in DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, Christian Kirk, and Rondale Moore.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 8%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants


Shepard lost two and a half games to a hamstring injury and reminded fantasy players why he's difficult to trust. He has missed four or more games in three of the last four seasons. But when healthy, Shepard is enjoying unprecedented volume with nine, 10, and 14 targets in Weeks 1, 2, and 6. His 28.4% target share those weeks is tied for sixth at his position with some guy named Tyreek Hill. That would never have continued, Kadarius Toney rookie breakout or not. But with Toney, Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton, and Saquon Barkley all presently injured and with the Giants poised to routinely trail and be forced to throw because of it, Shepard should be a PPR WR2 at least temporarily.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 5%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Kadarius Toney, WR, New York Giants


Speaking of Shepard's teammate, Toney authored incredible highs and lows in short order on Sunday. He caught three passes for 36 yards on three targets on his first six snaps. But then he aggravated the ankle injury that made him questionable before the game, and he failed to return to action. In the short term, that injury could derail what looked like a league-winning waiver wire addition. The Giants have their bye in Week 10, and so Toney seems unlikely to make a major fantasy difference on this side of Thanksgiving. But Toney should be fully healthy with time to prove himself before the fantasy playoffs. And after seeing a target on 37% of his snaps the last two weeks, he's an absolute must-stash. Diontae Johnson led regular wide receivers with targets on 20% of his snaps last season.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 4%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Elijah Mitchell, RB, San Francisco 49ers


Mitchell's roster rates went down even further last week. I know that the 49ers were on bye and fantasy players may have a roster crunch. But Mitchell has played 64%, 61%, and 68% of offensive snaps in his three healthy games and seen RB2 workloads of 19, 19, and 11 touches. Before the bye, Mitchell rendered third-round draft pick Trey Sermon an afterthought with just two snaps and one touch. And Jimmy Garoppolo's likely return to starter should only help Mitchell's volume of touches and touchdown opportunities. I'd rather have him than anyone on this waiver list, Alex Collins and Khalil Herbert included. But since my opinion there seems unpopular, you may be able to add Mitchell with a modest FAB bid. I'll recommend 4%, but try to read your specific leagues. I'd happily spend a lot more if that's what it took to roster him.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 4%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Damien Williams, RB, Chicago Bears


Herbert out-snapped Williams 53% to 48% and out-carried him 18 to 16 in Week 5, but I was still bullish on Williams. The latter back played significantly more that week with the score in doubt, and he out-targeted the rookie back two to none. But then Williams landed on the COVID list, and that throws all kinds of wrenches in his potential fantasy value. The most obvious of those is the fact that unvaccinated players must quarantine 10 days before they can play again. We don't know Williams' vaccination status, but his positive test came late enough last week that it puts his Sunday Week 7 game in Tampa in doubt. And even if Williams does play, Herbert's success as the lead back last week renders Williams a stash-and-see. Best-case, you could comfortably start him in Weeks 8 and 9 against the 49ers and Steelers before the Bears' bye. And then David Montgomery should return. I wouldn't want to drop Williams because I still believe in his talent. But he was the player whose career took the biggest hit for an understandable decision to opt out of 2020 for COVID concerns. And now COVID may have cost Williams his last runway as an NFL starter. It stinks.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 3%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos


I read some heavy skepticism in head coach Vic Fangio's comments that there's a chance Jeudy could return for the Broncos' Thursday game against the Browns. But since he was activated from injured reserve in the build-up to Week 6, Jeudy should be back by Week 8 for certain. He's a must-add for fantasy if he remains available in your league. Jeudy saw seven targets on just 31 snaps in Week 1. That rate of 0.23 targets per snap would have been the most among regular wide receivers in 2020.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 3%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers


After suffering an underdiscussed knee sprain late in Week 5 before the 49ers' bye, Lance is less likely to play in Week 7 than his previously injured teammate Jimmy Garoppolo. And after completing 8.3% fewer passes than expected per Next Gen Stats, Lance was likely poised to return to the bench in any case. But despite the relative unimportance of his position for shallow format fantasy success, Lance remains one of the best bench stashes for the fantasy playoffs. His 41.4% carry share from Weeks 4 and 5 dwarfed Lamar Jackson's 30.2% rate that led the position in 2020. It even bests Jalen Hurts' 40.2% rate that has him as the No. 4 and most consistent fantasy quarterback this season despite an underwhelming -5.5% passing DVOA. Lance may stay on the sidelines for the rest of 2021, but his upside is that of a top-five quarterback for the fantasy playoffs.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 3%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

AJ Dillon, RB, Green Bay Packers


Dillon made a marked jump from 28%, 29%, and 28% snap shares and five, six, and eight touches in Weeks 1 to 3 to 40%, 33%, and 42% snap shares and 16, 12, and 11 touches the last three weeks. That seems likely to be his ceiling while explosive teammate Aaron Jones remains healthy. But it is enough to play him at flex in even shallower formats, and that makes him under-rostered with his top-10 upside as a Jones handcuff. Dillon's predecessor Jamaal Williams is rostered in 73% of ESPN and 76% of Yahoo! formats and no longer enjoys the benefits of a Packers offense that is top-10 by DVOA. If Williams is worth a roster spot in your fantasy league, then Dillon is as well.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 2%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Michael Carter, RB, New York Jets


Carter was trending with increasing snap shares from 25% in Week 1 to 45%, 43%, 51%, and 52%, and with increasing touches from five to 13, 11, 14, and 13 before the Jets' Week 6 bye. And I think he has a chance to jump from there after an off week for his coaches to evaluate playing time. He hasn't excelled with -10.0% and -22.5% rushing and receiving DVOA rates, but those capture team problems such as poor quarterback play and bottom-10 run-blocking (3.90 adjusted line yards). Carter has bested his backfield teammates Ty Johnson with 1.8 versus 1.3 yards after contact per attempt and Tevin Coleman with a 6.4% versus 0.0% avoided tackle rate, metrics that aim to isolate the aspects of rushing efficiency that backs can more directly control themselves.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 2%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Christian Kirk, WR, Arizona Cardinals


If you made me bet, I'd wager that the non-Hopkins Cardinals receivers will remain fantasy whack-a-moles. Kirk scored twice in the team's Week 1 outburst in Tennessee but had not scored again until Sunday. And his 17.3% target share this season is just 55th among regular wide receivers, shy of even a flex standard in shallow formats. Emmanuel Sanders (17.4%) has turned a similar share into fantasy success with a featured red zone role and four touchdowns. But that may be difficult for Kirk to replicate with talented teammates in Hopkins, Green, Moore, and now Ertz. Kirk's three touchdowns to date are not even supported by his 2.1 expected touchdowns. All that said, he played a season-high 85% snap share on Sunday after languishing between 54% and 62% in four of his other five games. Until we see Ertz replace Williams and revert Kirk to a part-time player, Kirk deserves a roster spot.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 2%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Ricky Seals-Jones, TE, Washington Football Team


Seals-Jones struck me as a sneaky in-house Logan Thomas replacement at the time of the latter's injury, but I didn't expect this. After playing between 10% and 18% of offensive snaps the first three weeks, Seals-Jones has exploded with 93% snap shares or more the last three weeks. And his 16.1% target share over the latter period is 14th among tight ends. Seals-Jones may fall short of that standard in fantasy scoring with matchups with the Packers and Broncos the next two weeks. They cut tight end yards by 11% and 27% per target and touchdowns by 54% and 101% per target, respectively. Those latter two rates are both top-seven in football. But Thomas will likely miss those weeks and maybe more with a hamstring injury severe enough to land him on injured reserve. And with waiver options such as Dalton Schultz and Mike Gesicki long since rostered, few available tight ends have even modest target shares to justify their fantasy consideration. Add Seals-Jones if you are desperate for help at the position.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 2%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Devonta Freeman, RB, Baltimore Ravens


I've spent most of the past four weeks trying to make sense of the Ravens' yo-yoing of Ty'Son Williams and Le'Veon Bell. It turns out that may have distracted me from the better fantasy option. Freeman looked like an afterthought with 8% to 16% snap shares in his first three games. But those rates have jumped to 27% and 30% the last two weeks. And if Latavius Murray misses any time with an ankle injury he suffered late on Sunday, Freeman suddenly seems poised to replace him. Six targets the last two weeks aside, you'd mostly be betting on touchdowns. But Murray has scored in four of his six weeks as the Ravens starter even as a part-time player with less than 50% snap shares in five of those six weeks. The Ravens offense is a friendly one for its early-down backs in fantasy.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens


From a real-world perspective, the rookie Bateman is far more interesting than his running back teammates. He was a first-round draft pick and has the skills to contribute far more as a professional than he did in an unfavorable offense at Minnesota. That just may not happen this year in a run-oriented offense in Baltimore. Bateman tied for the team lead with six targets on Sunday, but those came in a second-place 65% snap share that may not continue when Sammy Watkins returns from his hamstring injury, possibly in Week 7. And even if Watkins misses more time—and he has missed three or more games in four his last six seasons—Bateman is unlikely to pass a surging Marquise Brown, whose 23.0% target share is 25th-best at the position. Add Bateman in dynasty and deeper leagues. But don't overspend in your typical 10- or 12-team redraft leagues.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR, Cleveland Browns


Peoples-Jones follows the Bateman formula of intriguing talent on the wrong team, at least for fantasy purposes in 2021. The Browns sophomore made the cut as one of Football Outsiders' top 25 prospects in the offseason. He has tremendous size at 6-foot-2 and 212 pounds and scored in the 99th percentile in much of the athletic testing at the combine. But while either Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt can find the field, the Browns should be one of the run-heavier offenses in football. And with Odell Beckham and soon Jarvis Landry around him, Peoples-Jones is unlikely to reach a fantasy-relent target volume. He has enjoyed one with 11 targets over the last two weeks, but his snap shares between 65% and 80% are unchanged from his September rates. The extra targets strike me as mostly random, similar to David Njoku's seven from Week 5 that netted him 149 yards and a touchdown but that he couldn't replicate with just two targets and 6 yards on Sunday.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Demetric Felton, RB, Cleveland Browns


Neither Chubb nor Hunt may find the field in Week 7. Chubb missed Sunday's game with a calf injury and has a short week to make it back for Thursday night. And Hunt suffered his own calf injury as a bell-cow fill-in and will likely land on injured reserve. Their absences could create an opportunity for a back-up, but I'd still try to avoid both D'Ernest Johnson and Felton in fantasy. The teammates tied each other with 20% snap shares on Sunday and would likely split time if Chubb failed to return. Meanwhile, the team faces a Broncos opponent that despite losing three games in a row maintains a top-10 run defense and top-10 overall defense by DVOA. If I had to pick one, I'd choose Felton. He is the more explosive athlete as a primary returner and has out-targeted Johnson nine to three this season. But neither back seems likely to crack my top 30 at the position in even PPR formats.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Players on More Than 80% of Rosters to Add

Leonard Fournette, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (93%/95%)
Rob Gronkowski, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (93%/92%)
Chase Claypool, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (92%/94%)
Antonio Brown, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (91%/94%)
Marquise Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens (91%/91%)
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos (90%/91%)
Cordarrelle Patterson, RB/WR, Atlanta Falcons (90%/90%)
Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints (86%/80%)
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos (85%/87%)
Mike Gesicki, TE, Miami Dolphins (84%/85%)
Dalton Schultz, TE, Dallas Cowboys (85%/86%)
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers (82%/84%)
Zack Moss, RB, Buffalo Bills (81%/89%)
Damien Harris, RB, New England Patriots (78%/91%)
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (73%/87%)
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Buffalo Bills (73%/80%)
Darrel Williams, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (72%/85%)

Players on More Than 20% of Rosters You Can Drop

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers (62%/60%)
Kenyan Drake, RB, Las Vegas Raiders (59%/53%)
Robert Tonyan, TE, Green Bay Packers (58%/55%)
Will Fuller, WR, Miami Dolphins (52%/34%)
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (50%/29%)
Sony Michel, RB, Los Angeles Rams (45%/50%)
Sam Darnold, QB, Carolina Panthers (42%/56%)
Taylor Heinicke, QB, Washington Football Team (42%/28%)
DJ Chark, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (41%/23%)
Curtis Samuel, WR, Washington Football Team (41%/20%)
Trey Sermon, RB, San Francisco 49ers (40%/52%)
Ronald Jones, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (39%/37%)
Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (34%/28%)
Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears (28%/32%)
Raheem Mostert, RB, San Francisco 49ers (22%/17%)
James White, RB, New England Patriots (22%/9%)
Josh Gordon, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (21%/26%)
David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns (15%/20%)


22 comments, Last at 22 Oct 2021, 1:41pm

2 Scott, trade question (14-team keeper league):

Knowing what we know now about McCaffrey's injury (i.e., he's "supposed" to be back by week 9/10, but...), would you trade Chuba Hubbard for DeVonta Smith? The latter has a 7th-round draft value for next year. My sense is that Hubbard is fine in a volume RB2 sort of way, but he doesn't appear to be a league-winner or anything and would figure not to have much value for 2022. Meanwhile, Smith could be a productive if not elite player in the league for a long time (we don't know that yet), and could maybe get a more accurate QB next year. I also have Javonte Williams, but that feels like a lateral move in this context and I love Williams's going-forward value (6th-round, which he'll smash if he's "the guy" in DEN's backfield in 2022, which looks likely at this point).



3 Re: Trade

Yes, I love that trade for you. I've very bullish on DeVonta Smith and expect the Eagles to move onto a different quarterback that in the long term should offer Smith a better situation for his success in fantasy.

4 Thanks, Scott. I feel…

In reply to by Scott Spratt

Thanks, Scott. I feel similarly but got the usual butterflies pre-trade and wondered if I was missing something obvious. Thanks! 

5 RB

I have both Hubbard and Collins from FAAB based on your previous recommendations and I'm feeling good about where I'm at.  Thanks Scott!

7 McKissic

Excellent analysis.  How do you feel about JD McKissic?  Is he a good pickup with Antonio Gibson having this nagging stress fracture in his shin?  Would McKissic take over, or would he lose touches to Jaret Patterson? 

Also, what do you think about Jamal Williams relative to McKissic?  He's in a bad offense, and they are shifting passing usage away from him toward D'Andre Swift.  But he seems like he'd have a good role if Swift got hurt.  Detroit seems to use its RBs (for running and passing plays) more than Washington uses its RBs.

13 Re: McKissic

In reply to by alex.michel

I think McKissic is fantasy worthy in PPR leagues in particular.  And while I think he's more valuable than Jamaal Williams in their current situations, I agree with your subtext that Williams would have the greater ceiling as a handcuff if D'Andre Swift got hurt.  At 5-foot-10 and 195 pounds, McKissic would likely maintain his current role even if Gibson missed time.  Jaret Patterson is the same weight but two inches shorter and therefore better built for the traditional run game.

14 Thank you

In reply to by Scott Spratt

Scott, thank you for these great answers!  I really appreciate your responsiveness and the way you make this site feel like a community.  Go Scott and Go Football Outsiders!

8 Cleveland

Also, I'm interested (but a bit surprised) to see that you're trying to avoid the Cleveland backups.  I would have thought they'd be more valuable since Cleveland is one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league.  Cleveland's two lead backs (Chubb and Hunt) both get plenty of work even splitting time.  

Can you say any more about why Johnson and Felton are unappealing to you?  



11 Re: Cleveland

In reply to by alex.michel

It's a combination of smaller things that I think adds to a suspicion that neither substitute will be more than a one-week flex option at best.  The Broncos are a difficult opponent, and a big reason the Browns are able to be so run heavy is Nick Chubb's and Kareem Hunt's excellence that keeps the team ahead of the sticks and able to keep running.  I just don't expect that plan to fly on Thursday especially with both starting tackles injured.

15 Thank you

In reply to by Scott Spratt

Great answer!  This makes perfect sense!  Thank you.  

19 In addition to the matchup…

In reply to by alex.michel

In addition to the matchup factors Scott outlined, there is also the matter of Cleveland activating John Kelly from the practice squad and Kevin Stefanski suggesting that it would be a three-man rotation between Johnson, Felton, and Kelly. There are just so many variables here, and the game has the lowest implied point total of the week. I would avoid if you can! 

12 Re: Drake

I still believe Drake is droppable (although not someone you have to drop).  He's played just 18% and 21% of offensive snaps the last two games.  Hey may have scored twice, but that seems like a major fluke with that workload.

16 Cleveland Offensive Line

Do we know how bad the situation is with the Cleveland offensive line and the injured tackles?  How long is this expected to last?  Chubb without Hunt for a few weeks starting next week should theoretically be fun for Chubb owners.  Will the offensive line situation enable that or hinder it?  


17 Broncos

DVOA says DEN is #20 v Run and #24 overall. I think both starting ILB are hurt now too.  I'm playing D'ernest if one or both CLE tackles are back.

18 Re: D'Ernest

In reply to by dresden11

I'm warming to the idea of playing D'Ernest Johnson, too, because of the weather forecast.  It could rain tonight and there are forecasted heavy winds.  Both teams may have to run more than you would expect.

21 Hockenson vs Schultz

I have Kelce, in addition to Hockenson and Schultz.  Looking to move one of the latter two for a WR to balance my roster.  How do these two compare in your rest of season projections (.5 ppr)?

22 What to dooo

I am in a bind, I have Herbert and Williams (Had Monty - living and dying with these bears RBs)

I've been hit with the week 7 bye blues, I need to fill my def slot. I'm wondering if it's a good idea to drop both williams and herbert (given the tough matchup) and pick up either McKissic or Drake for week 7. OR just drop Williams and fill the Def spot and ride Herby? I am #1 on the waiver wire so I could pick him back up if I want (Although I want to save it to use it on Monty)

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