Fromm, Giants Dominate Worst Games of 2021
NFL Week 18 - With the 2021 regular season over, it's time to look back at the best and worst games of the year, with full-strength final opponent adjustments. Later this week, I'll be back with a rundown of the best and worst players of the season by DYAR, rather than analysis of Week 18.
Quarterbacks
Best Games
- Tom Brady, Week 5 vs. MIA, 283 DYAR
- Lamar Jackson, Week 5 vs. IND, 272 DYAR
- Dak Prescott, Week 6 vs. NE, 255 DYAR
- Justin Herbert, Week 5 vs. CLE, 244 DYAR
- Josh Allen, Week 16 vs. NE, 230 DYAR
First question: what was in the NFL's water in Week 5? That's when Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert posted the best, second-best, and fourth-best quarterback games of the year, all within 36 hours or so (the Ravens game was on Monday night). Brady and Herbert had their big games on my birthday, so maybe their big games were meant as personal gifts to me, in which case, thanks guys!
The Brady game referenced here is the one in which he threw for 411 yards and five touchdowns in a 45-17 win over Miami. It's also the game that pushed him ahead of Peyton Manning in career DYAR, and if you're going to move into first place, might as well do it big. Jackson's best game came in a 31-25 overtime win against the Colts. Baltimore actually trailed 22-3 in that game before Jackson threw three touchdowns (and two two-point conversions!) to the game at 25-25 and send it into overtime, where he threw a game-winning score to Marquise Brown. Herbert also led a rally as the Chargers trailed Cleveland 27-13 in the third quarter and 42-35 with less than five minutes to go. Herbert and L.A. then produced a touchdown, a Browns three-and-out, and another touchdown to take the lead, then made one more defensive stop to win 47-42. Herbert finished with 398 yards and four touchdowns.
A week later, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys beat the Patriots 35-29 in overtime in a game that included nine lead changes or ties, five of them in the fourth quarter or later. Prescott threw for 445 yards and three touchdowns. Only one late-season game made our list, and it also came against New England: Josh Allen's 314-yard, three-touchdown passing game in a 33-21 win in Week 16. Allen also ran 12 times for 64 yards in that game.
Worst Games
- Mike Glennon, Week 17 vs. CHI, -265 DYAR
- Ian Book, Week 16 vs. MIA, -207 DYAR
- Daniel Jones, Week 6 vs. LAR, -204 DYAR
- Davis Mills, Week 4 vs. BUF, -184 DYAR
- Ryan Tannehill, Week 11 vs. HOU, -179 DYAR
So, uh, how about those New York Giants? Mike Glennon's 24-yard, two-interception, four-sack game from last week's 29-3 loss to the Bears winds up as the 15th-worst quarterback game in our books since 1983. Daniel Jones finishes third-worst this season; he did throw for 242 yards in a 38-11 loss to L.A., but it took him 51 passes to get there, and he gave up three interceptions and four sacks along the way. If we stretched this out to a bottom 10 instead of a bottom five, Jake Fromm would show up twice, with exactly -172 DYAR in both a 34-10 loss to Philadelphia in Week 16 and a 22-7 loss to Washington in Week 18. Fromm's combined numbers in those two games: 21-of-48, 128 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions, four sacks. Oh, and let's not forget that Glennon relieved Fromm in Week 16 and added (subtracted?) -68 more passing DYAR; combine the two, and the Giants would finish in first, second, and fourth place on this list. All told, Giants quarterbacks finished in the bottom five in Quick Reads nine times this season, including four finishes in last place.
Elsewhere, Ian Book looked every bit like a fourth-string quarterback in a 20-3 loss to Miami on Monday night in Week 16, picking up 135 yards while giving up two interceptions and eight sacks. And Ryan Tannehill had an awful day in a 22-13 loss to Houston in Week 11, throwing four interceptions and being sacked twice as Houston took a 19-0 lead in the third quarter.
Running Backs
Best Games
- Jonathan Taylor, Week 11 vs. BUF, 125 DYAR
- Austin Ekeler, Week 4 vs. LV, 98 DYAR
- Cordarrelle Patterson, Week 4 vs. WAS, 93 DYAR
- Jonathan Taylor, Week 5 vs. BAL, 88 DYAR
- Jamaal Williams, Week 1 vs. SF, 72 DYAR
Yes, it was a good year for Jonathan Taylor. He ran for 185 yards and four touchdowns in a 41-15 win against the Bills, a game that finishes eighth in total DYAR and third in rushing DYAR in our database. He only ran for 53 yards in a 31-25 overtime loss to the Ravens, but added 116 more as a receiver, with two total touchdowns.
Two running backs had big games in Week 4: Austin Ekeler had 117 yards in only 15 carries in a 28-14 win over the Raiders, while Cordarrelle Patterson caught five passes for 82 yards and three touchdowns in a 34-30 loss to Washington. And way back in Week 1, Jamaal Williams had 54 yards on nine carries and 56 on eight catches in Detroit's 41-33 loss to the 49ers.
Worst Games
- D'Andre Swift, Week 10 vs. PIT, -71 DYAR
- Dalvin Cook, Week 15 vs. CHI, -51 DYAR
- Darrell Henderson, Week 7 vs. DET, -51 DYAR
- Myles Gaskin, Week 6 vs. JAX, -50 DYAR
- Joe Mixon, Week 13 vs. LAC, -39 DYAR
D'Andre Swift barely sneaks into the bottom 20 for his 130-rushing yard, 5-receiving yard day in a 16-16 tie with Pittsburgh with Week 10. (You can click the link for details, but Swift's 130 yards came on 33 carries, and only eight of those carries counted as successful plays.) He's the first player to hit -40 rushing DYAR and -20 receiving DYAR in the same game since the Rams' Steven Jackson in 2010.
The next four games here are less surprising. You've got Dalvin Cook's 91 yards from scrimmage on 31 carries and targets in a 17-9 win over Chicago; Darrell Henderson's 64 on 21 in a 28-19 win over Detroit; Myles Gaskin's 14 on 11 in a 23-20 win over Miami; and Joe Mixon's 54 on 20 in a 41-22 loss to the Chargers.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Best Games
- Ja'Marr Chase, Week 17 vs. KC, 126 DYAR
- Tyreek Hill, Week 4 vs. PHI, 110 DYAR
- Deebo Samuel, Week 10 vs. LAR, 106 DYAR
- Justin Jefferson, Week 11 vs. GB, 105 DYAR
- Tee Higgins, Week 16 vs. BAL, 103 DYAR
Chase's 12-11-266-3 statline in last week's 34-31 win against Kansas City puts him 13th all-time among wide receivers in total DYAR in a single game, and 11th place in receiving DYAR. For his part, Tyreek Hill put up a 12-11-186-3 line in a 42-30 in over Philadelphia. Justin Jefferson went 10-8-169-2 in a 34-31 win over Green Bay, while Tee Higgins went 12-13-194-2 in a 41-21 win over Baltimore.
You'll note we skipped over Deebo Samuel. That's because his game in San Francisco's 31-10 win over the Rams requires a little explanation. He had 57 receiving DYAR for going 5-5-97-1, but added 50 rushing DYAR for his five carries for 36 yards. That latter mark is an all-time record for wide receivers who had at least 80 combined DYAR in a game, surpassing the 40 rushing DYAR that the Giants' Jerrel Jernigan had for his two carries for 57 yards and a touchdown against Washington in 2013. As you'll see later, Samuel's Week 18 game, which was even more diverse, nearly qualified for this table too.
The best tight end game of the year was George Kittle's 74-DYAR day in San Francisco's 30-23 loss to Seattle in Week 13. Kittle went 12-9-181-2 as a receiver that day, adding one carry for 5 yards.
Worst Games
- Gabriel Davis, Week 18 vs. NYJ, -74 DYAR
- Marquise Brown, Week 10 vs. MIA, -68 DYAR
- Ja'Marr Chase, Week 9 vs. CLE, -65 DYAR
- Gerald Everett, Week 13 vs. SF, -63 DYAR
- Robby Anderson, Week 6 vs. MIN, -56 DYAR
Congratulations to Buffalo's Gabriel Davis, who made it just under the gun for the worst wide receiver game of the year! Davis only caught three of 14 passes in Buffalo's 27-10 win against the Jets. Those three receptions: 14-yard gain on second-and-10; 27-yard gain on first-and-10; 2-yard loss on second-and-goal from the 3.
Special attention also goes to Seattle's Gerald Everett, whose -63 DYAR in Seattle's 30-23 win over San Francisco is a new record for worst game ever by a tight end, surpassing Mark Andrew's, uh, mark of -58 DYAR against Kansas City last season. Everett caught four of six passes against the 49ers … for a total of 7 yards, with more fumbles (two) than first downs (zero).
Our bottom five is rounded out by Marquise Brown (13-6-37-0 in a 22-10 loss to Miami), Ja'Marr Chase (13-6-49-0 in a 41-16 loss to Cleveland), and Robby Anderson (11-3-11-1 in a 34-28 overtime loss to Minnesota).
| Quarterbacks | |||||||||||
|
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
CP/AT
|
Yds
|
TD
|
INT
|
Sacks
|
Total
DYAR |
Pass
DYAR |
Rush
DYAR |
Opp
|
|
1.
|
Dak Prescott | DAL |
21/27
|
295
|
5
|
0
|
1
|
197
|
197
|
0
|
PHI
|
|
2.
|
Tom Brady | TB |
29/37
|
326
|
3
|
0
|
1
|
193
|
193
|
0
|
CAR
|
|
3.
|
Ryan Tannehill | TEN |
23/32
|
287
|
4
|
0
|
1
|
178
|
178
|
0
|
HOU
|
|
4.
|
Patrick Mahomes | KC |
27/44
|
270
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
156
|
139
|
17
|
DEN
|
|
5.
|
Jared Goff | DET |
21/30
|
238
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
120
|
120
|
0
|
GB
|
|
6.
|
Davis Mills | HOU |
23/33
|
301
|
3
|
0
|
2
|
113
|
118
|
-5
|
TEN
|
|
7.
|
Trevor Lawrence | JAX |
23/32
|
223
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
103
|
98
|
4
|
IND
|
|
8.
|
Tua Tagovailoa | MIA |
15/22
|
109
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
95
|
74
|
21
|
NE
|
|
9.
|
Drew Lock | DEN |
12/24
|
162
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
66
|
39
|
26
|
KC
|
|
10.
|
Russell Wilson | SEA |
15/26
|
238
|
3
|
1
|
1
|
65
|
55
|
10
|
ARI
|
|
11.
|
Taysom Hill | NO |
7/9
|
107
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
64
|
70
|
-5
|
ATL
|
|
12.
|
Kirk Cousins | MIN |
14/22
|
250
|
3
|
0
|
3
|
59
|
59
|
0
|
CHI
|
|
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
CP/AT
|
Yds
|
TD
|
INT
|
Sacks
|
Total
DYAR |
Pass
DYAR |
Rush
DYAR |
Opp
|
|
13.
|
Jimmy Garoppolo | SF |
23/31
|
316
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
56
|
55
|
1
|
LAR
|
|
14.
|
Matthew Stafford | LAR |
21/32
|
238
|
3
|
2
|
5
|
44
|
44
|
0
|
SF
|
|
15.
|
Aaron Rodgers | GB |
14/18
|
138
|
2
|
0
|
3
|
33
|
32
|
1
|
DET
|
|
16.
|
Josh Allen | BUF |
24/45
|
239
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
18
|
4
|
15
|
NYJ
|
|
17.
|
Gardner Minshew | PHI |
19/33
|
186
|
2
|
1
|
3
|
16
|
20
|
-4
|
DAL
|
|
18.
|
Derek Carr | LV |
21/36
|
186
|
2
|
0
|
3
|
13
|
13
|
0
|
LAC
|
|
19.
|
Mac Jones | NE |
20/30
|
261
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
9
|
24
|
-15
|
MIA
|
|
20.
|
Case Keenum | CLE |
17/24
|
176
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
-1
|
-8
|
7
|
CIN
|
|
21.
|
Justin Herbert | LAC |
34/64
|
382
|
3
|
1
|
3
|
-3
|
6
|
-8
|
LV
|
|
22.
|
Ben Roethlisberger | PIT |
30/44
|
244
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
-22
|
-22
|
0
|
BAL
|
|
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
CP/AT
|
Yds
|
TD
|
INT
|
Sacks
|
Total
DYAR |
Pass
DYAR |
Rush
DYAR |
Opp
|
|
23.
|
Trevor Siemian | NO |
9/15
|
71
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
-32
|
-24
|
-8
|
ATL
|
|
24.
|
Matt Ryan | ATL |
20/33
|
216
|
1
|
1
|
3
|
-32
|
-31
|
-1
|
NO
|
|
25.
|
Taylor Heinicke | WAS |
9/18
|
120
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
-37
|
-27
|
-11
|
NYG
|
|
26.
|
Kyler Murray | ARI |
28/39
|
240
|
1
|
0
|
5
|
-39
|
-51
|
12
|
SEA
|
|
27.
|
Sam Darnold | CAR |
29/42
|
219
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
-55
|
-20
|
-35
|
TB
|
|
28.
|
Brandon Allen | CIN |
15/29
|
136
|
1
|
0
|
4
|
-81
|
-83
|
2
|
CLE
|
|
29.
|
Andy Dalton | CHI |
33/48
|
325
|
1
|
2
|
7
|
-82
|
-82
|
0
|
MIN
|
|
30.
|
Carson Wentz | IND |
17/29
|
185
|
1
|
1
|
6
|
-105
|
-108
|
3
|
JAX
|
|
31.
|
Jordan Love | GB |
10/17
|
134
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
-110
|
-110
|
0
|
DET
|
|
32.
|
Zach Wilson | NYJ |
7/20
|
87
|
1
|
0
|
8
|
-118
|
-123
|
4
|
BUF
|
|
33.
|
Tyler Huntley | BAL |
16/31
|
141
|
0
|
2
|
3
|
-128
|
-115
|
-14
|
PIT
|
|
34.
|
Jake Fromm | NYG |
15/31
|
103
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
-172
|
-185
|
13
|
WAS
|
| Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total) | ||||||||||||
|
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
Runs
|
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
Rec
|
Rec
Yds |
Rec
TD |
Total
DYAR |
Rush
DYAR |
Rec
DYAR |
Opp
|
|
1.
|
D'Ernest Johnson | CLE |
25
|
123
|
1
|
1/1
|
10
|
0
|
66
|
60
|
6
|
CIN
|
|
2.
|
Rashaad Penny | SEA |
23
|
190
|
1
|
0/0
|
0
|
0
|
62
|
62
|
0
|
ARI
|
|
3.
|
Damien Harris | NE |
11
|
37
|
1
|
4/4
|
36
|
0
|
52
|
25
|
27
|
MIA
|
|
4.
|
Latavius Murray | BAL |
16
|
150
|
1
|
0/0
|
0
|
0
|
47
|
47
|
0
|
PIT
|
|
5.
|
Brandon Bolden | NE |
7
|
46
|
1
|
2/2
|
20
|
1
|
38
|
17
|
21
|
MIA
|
| Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing) | ||||||||||||
|
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
Runs
|
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
Rec
|
Rec
Yds |
Rec
TD |
Total
DYAR |
Rush
DYAR |
Rec
DYAR |
Opp
|
|
1.
|
Rashaad Penny | SEA |
23
|
190
|
1
|
0/0
|
0
|
0
|
62
|
62
|
0
|
ARI
|
|
2.
|
D'Ernest Johnson | CLE |
25
|
123
|
1
|
1/1
|
10
|
0
|
66
|
60
|
6
|
CIN
|
|
3.
|
Latavius Murray | BAL |
16
|
150
|
1
|
0/0
|
0
|
0
|
47
|
47
|
0
|
PIT
|
|
4.
|
Antonio Gibson | WAS |
21
|
146
|
1
|
1/3
|
5
|
0
|
32
|
38
|
-6
|
NYG
|
|
5.
|
Kenneth Gainwell | PHI |
12
|
78
|
1
|
4/7
|
9
|
0
|
22
|
38
|
-16
|
DAL
|
| Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total) | ||||||||||||
|
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
Runs
|
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
Rec
|
Rec
Yds |
Rec
TD |
Total
DYAR |
Rush
DYAR |
Rec
DYAR |
Opp
|
|
1.
|
Mike Davis | ATL |
6
|
30
|
0
|
3/3
|
-2
|
0
|
-36
|
14
|
-50
|
NO
|
| Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing) | ||||||||||||
|
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
Runs
|
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
Rec
|
Rec
Yds |
Rec
TD |
Total
DYAR |
Rush
DYAR |
Rec
DYAR |
Opp
|
|
1.
|
D'Onta Foreman | TEN |
21
|
69
|
0
|
1/2
|
15
|
0
|
-21
|
-25
|
4
|
HOU
|
| Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR | ||||||||||
|
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
Rec
|
Att
|
Yds
|
Avg
|
TD
|
Total
DYAR |
Opp
|
|
|
1.
|
Deebo Samuel | SF |
5
|
7
|
95
|
19.0
|
0
|
100
|
LAR
|
|
| Samuel's totals include 27 DYAR receiving; 44 DYAR rushing for his eight carries for 45 yards and a touchdown; and 29 DYAR passing for his one throw, a 24-yard touchdown pass. | ||||||||||
|
1.
|
Cedrick Wilson | DAL |
5
|
6
|
119
|
23.8
|
2
|
75
|
PHI
|
|
|
3.
|
Tyler Lockett | SEA |
5
|
5
|
98
|
19.6
|
2
|
69
|
ARI
|
|
| Lockett's totals include zero rushing DYAR for his one carry for 2 yards. | ||||||||||
|
4.
|
Cooper Kupp | LAR |
7
|
7
|
118
|
16.9
|
1
|
66
|
SF
|
|
| Kupp's totals include 12 rushing DYAR for his one carry for 18 yards. | ||||||||||
|
5.
|
Jauan Jennings | SF |
6
|
7
|
94
|
15.7
|
2
|
61
|
LAR
|
|
| Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR | ||||||||||
|
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
Rec
|
Att
|
Yds
|
Avg
|
TD
|
Total
DYAR |
Opp
|
|
|
1.
|
Gabriel Davis | BUF |
3
|
14
|
39
|
13.0
|
0
|
-74
|
NYJ
|
|
Comments
35 comments, Last at 11 Jan 2022, 5:42pm
#3 by big10freak // Jan 10, 2022 - 11:54am
Love still has yet to get what I consider a reasonable environment.
His first game was on the road, in one of the toughest crowd venues, with no prep time due to circumstances, and a gameplan that the coach admitted afterward was dumb for three quarters.
His second game he played entirely with backups where the droppoff at the receiver position is dramatic (running back and line not so much though for the line still noticeable)
So I am reserving judgement as I want him to get one fair shot. That being stated the last pass was horrendous decision-making. No matter any circumstances that is just a bad pass. And the pass before I was disappointed he didn't step into the rush to generate a more powerful throw knowing he would take the hit. Look, getting hit sucks. I get that. But part of the job. And if he DOES do that GB likely gets a big play or maybe even a TD.
There were other things to like. He's certainly not a train wreck that so many have described. But definitely a work in progress.
I will say having had the good fortune to see Favre and Rodgers enter the league there was no sense of 'something'. With both those guys you could tell there was 'something'. Yes, really helpful I know. But it was present when both those guys were on the field.
#9 by Arkaein // Jan 10, 2022 - 3:12pm
Glad to see someone else think this, and I'm not just going crazy.
I think the Packers win the game with Love if he gets to keep playing with Adams, Lazard, Bakh, and Myers. I agree he could have done better on those last two throws, but both featured poor protection, Nijman getting beat on the deep incompletion, and Patrick Taylor jumping out of the way of a stunt on the final INT, that I don't think happens if Bakh (on the incomplete), or Myers and/or Dillon (on the INT) were in the game instead. Bakh was giving Rodgers all day in the pocket on some plays, to the point I'm actually a bit worried about Rodgers reverting to some bad hero ball habits in the playoffs.
The offense with Love actually had three straight scoring drives, and scored more than the offense with Rodgers did, even though the Rodgers offense started a drive at Detroit's 35 (but ended with zero points out of it) after the failed fake punt.
What does all this mean? Probably nothing. If there is anything to worry about it's how GB's defense looked in both halves, but that comes with major caveats as well that probably don't apply to the post-season. However a lot of people are desperate to minro-analyze every bit of Love's performance to determine whether he's good or not, and it's still totally inconclusive.
#15 by DisplacedPackerFan // Jan 10, 2022 - 4:16pm
I'm mostly on the same page. I went into a bit more detail in the game day thread yesterday. It boils down to, he hasn't looked as good as his expectations for being a trade up first round pick with nearly 2 seasons of simmering on the bench. But he hasn't looked like a disaster either. He struggles with pressure, but nearly every young QB does and while they do what they can in practice you really need the game reps to learn to deal with it. He hasn't really had them. There is plenty of video of Rodgers looking dumb against pressure in his first full season as a starter too.
As Big Ten pointed out Love never had the Matt Flynn throwing to Nelson, Driver, Jones, Finley against DET in 2011 type audition. The KC game he had what the Packers had for starters at the time, but that's still a tough game. While it showed his issues with pressure, sure, he didn't look completely hopeless, 2 missed FG early did him no favors either.
So while I do think his ceiling might be Cousins, I don't know what his floor is. Sure a Cousins career is not Rodgers, but you can't expect Rodgers/Favre again either. Cousins is a top half of the league starter, that's fine. But it's also a very small sample size.
The real issue as ImNew pointed out in the game day thread is the timing. If Rodgers really is OK with Gutekunst and they come to a agreement it's likely a 5 year commitment at least. There is very little point in keeping Love them. You'll have a rookie contract back-up sure, but he's not going to be your future QB. So you trade him and move on. I doubt they can get better than a 2nd and some late rounders for him though and I worry the front office would see that as admitting drafting him in the first place was a mistake.
If Rodgers (and Adams since I don't see him coming back without Rodgers) move on then we'll really get to see how good the LaFleur/Hackett system is with an inexperienced but familiar with the system QB. But as fans yeah we still don't know what we have. I completely get the frustration since he was a first round draft pick 2 years ago, you'd like to know by now. All we know is that eye test he doesn't "pop" the same way Favre and Rodgers did. But he also doesn't look as lost as Hundley or Tolzien did to me (of course that was in McCarthy offenses which were different beasts too).
#23 by Arkaein // Jan 10, 2022 - 5:44pm
My gut says that Love's market isn't great right now. He hasn't shown enough. The one thing in his favor is the weak QB draft class.
I think most likely they decide the trade value isn't worth it and they keep him for at least one more year regardless of the Rodgers situation. It saves the need to shop or spend draft capital for a backup (unless you really think Benkert is good enough) and gives a chance to have him put some better preseason production on tape, which is probably the best way to pump up his trade value.
They have one more year before a decision needs to be made on the 5th year option, so I don't see a need to rush into anything unless the trade market is better than I expect it to be.
#25 by ImNewAroundThe… // Jan 10, 2022 - 6:07pm
Yall are being really generous. The tone of the conversation was really different entering the KC game. We were rolling, feeling ourselves. Game didn't really matter (ended up not too, clinching before the final week). Genius, should be 3x COTY, etc. Good weapons. KCs offense was reeling (relative but still) and their defense was bottom 2. No one was talking about Arrowhead being this almighty insanely hard place to play...until afterwards. Heck even during the game the defense played well enough to hold to 13. IDK a legit year and half to absorb everything...IDK I guess I'm not as lenient. Then again, I'm not super surprised...because this was kinda him in college.
And honestly I don't think it's a big if. Rodgers PFF grade this year is 90. Loves is 36.2. Sure yesterday was with the backups but it's also against the flippin Lions. They had already lost people like Okudah and are just generally backup quality, even among their starters. There's no way they let the back to back MVP walk out the doors regardless of trade package...just no way. There's a reasons it's never been done...in any sport that I know of/remember.
To be fair though to Love though, I'm still frustrated they played the starters (altogether, let alone that long) instead of giving Love the whole game. Maybe some with Davante (who he already played with in KC mind you) until he got his record, etc.
Honestly, this season has been perfect to evaluate a backup. Rodgers gone all offseason. Rodgers catching Covid and missing essentially two weeks of practice including a game and then yesterday (which, again, they squandered a bit). Unless something crazy happens the rest of the season, you gotta just know by now. KC knew after one year what Mahomes was like (and many were comparing him to Mahomes pre-draft, unrightfully, but people were).
Also, not to nit pick, but if Loves gone I think we can and should find someone cheaper, younger, better than Benkert lol I dont mess with the cult hero beefin with Florio nonsense. Does nothing for me lol
#21 by justanothersteve // Jan 10, 2022 - 5:19pm
Thanks. I think Love's ceiling is higher than Cousins. He's got at least as good an arm and he's more athletic. I don't remember Rodgers impressing me until his second year when he came in against Dallas after Favre got hurt. I saw enough in the preseason this year to think Love could be good; I agree yesterday's game was inconclusive. Considering much of Love's first season was lost to Covid, his second active preseason should tell us a lot more. Of course, his floor could very well be Brett Hundley.
I'm also concerned if Rodgers and Adams leave. The only WRs under contract next year are Cobb, Amari Rodgers, and Winfree (who showed some chemistry with Love). Lazard will be a RFA; Malik Taylor an ERFA. Adams, MVS, and even EQ are free agents after this year. I'll be very surprised if any are with the Pack next year without Rodgers.
#24 by Arkaein // Jan 10, 2022 - 5:53pm
Rodgers' relief performance against Dallas wasn't until his third year. His only backup performance in his first two seasons were both in blowouts and were not good.
Rodgers career is a great lesson in the value of patience:
- Didn't have any good film until year 3.
- Didn't start until year 4, and was pretty good but not great. Had a few INTs on failed desperate comeback attempts at the end of games after the defense blew leads, much like Love yesterday.
- Didn't make a Pro Bowl until year 5.
- Won a Superbowl in year 6 (but wasn't as good in the regular season as he was in year 5).
- Won his first MVP in year 7.
Packers fans in particular should not be quick to write off QBs early. Favre wasn't that great until year 4 himself, though it was disguised by some questionable Pro Bowl selections in years 2 and 3.
Similar story with WRs. No Packers fan who's been around for a while should write off a player after seeing Driver break out in year 4, Nelson break out in year 4, and Adams break out in year 3.
Yeah, I'd love it if these players provided a little more value on their rookie contracts, but once you've spent the draft capital to acquire them, might as well keep developing them on their cheap deals to see if they can live up to their potential.
#27 by ImNewAroundThe… // Jan 10, 2022 - 6:22pm
Are there ANY other examples other than Rodgers?
IDK, everyone knows that being Rodgers level is hard yet that's all people come back to. Maybe Love is good someday. But in reality when you come the info we had in the NFL (3rd string first year, and contrary to popular revisionnist history Rodgers ended up winning the backup job his first year) + plus the lack of "steal" being picked at 26 (aka was actually a reach), there's really no reason we should believe that he'll become anything.
Yeah, I'd love it if these players provided a little more value on their rookie contracts, but once you've spent the draft capital to acquire them, might as well keep developing them on their cheap deals to see if they can live up to their potential.
I generally agree with this. The only thing is...he's a QB. You're either starting, which he isn't, or your providing some type of Hurts/Taysom/Lamar role, which isn't his skillset. There's no real tangible way for him to get on the field to show his value. A WR can work his way up on ST, rotations, etc. That's just not a thing for QBs. I'm not sure what YOU think his value is but all I'd be aiming for is a 2nd and a couple 7ths. We're just not gonna get anything similar to a 1st (+ 4th) back using up the first two years of his rookie contract. And I'm pretty sure he won't get the benefit of the doubt like Darnold (a better prospect coming out) will, if we use his 3rd year.
#28 by Arkaein // Jan 10, 2022 - 8:44pm
Steve Young looked terrible for 2 years in Tampa, had limited backup time with San Fran before first playing well in significant playing time at the age of 28.
Alex Smith was bad for 3 years, then injured for a year, decent for 2 years, and finally pretty good in his 7th year. Smith is a pretty good example of a QB who was never great, but is good enough to win a lot of games in the right situation.
I'm not terribly impressed with the unprecedented situation argument. The history of the NFL is too short and with too few QBs, especially accounting for the changes over time, to think that we've seen it all. Years back I've read arguments like these for why Alex Smith and Josh Allen would never be good after their rookie years. The main reason we've never seen someone succeed in Love's situation is because teams rarely draft a first round QB when they already have an MVP at the position. Most players in Love's position have a much easier path to the starting job where they can get the game experience and put a lot on film, good or bad.
#29 by ImNewAroundThe… // Jan 10, 2022 - 9:35pm
Can't exactly stockpile "talent" like that anymore. Weird route of going through the USFL, etc. too. But I guess.
The irony with Smith is he was in the same class as Rodgers. And that's a reason the the Rodgers comparisons aren't great either. But IDK if Alex Smith, a guy capping out at CCG in a year in which Love would no longer be under contract is super enticing.
A 100 years doesn't seem too short to me lol but it sure has changed. But not for the benefit of a guy just sitting though.
Most players in Love's position have a much easier path to the starting job where they can get the game experience and put a lot on film, good or bad.
All I hear from that is a bad mess up lol. Took a (bad) bet on Rodgers declining and thoroughly lost. Really no need to double down on a player that won't ever be useful outside of injury (or Covid, in which...he wasn't super useful). He's a sunk cost. Take whatever the remaining value you can get before you use up more of his contract and along with the cap savings (of which they are gonna need) and call it an offseason instead of hoping the timelines match up. Because it doesn't look like Rodgers will be slowing down anytime soon. And lets not forget, this isn't the first time an NFC team tried selecting a QB 26th overall in the 1st round to replace their 2nd straight HOF QB in his 30s, that also, ironically, only got one start over his first two years but played in 6 total games. Lol
#31 by Noahrk // Jan 11, 2022 - 11:53am
That's an argument I can get on board with. Some players just start poorly and then take strides toward stardom. The argument that he hasn't been so bad *stares at DVOA* just doesn't hold water. And in a good Green Bay offense, to boot. I don't know what Love's ceiling is, but his floor? His floor is he never gets any better and he washes out of the league in a few years.
Now, again, some players might start poorly and turn it around, but that doesn't mean it's the expected result. Most QBs who start poorly continue poorly. And the prime examples of players who started awful and became stars (Young, Alex Smith, Testaverde, Josh Allen) all had much higher pedigree than Love. Which matters because pedigree equals patience and opportunities. Love will get a shot in he's traded, but I doubt he gets more than one season unless he shows clear progress.
#5 by Kaepernicus // Jan 10, 2022 - 1:03pm
If my math is right (addition is pretty hard) Deebo at 486 DYAR between rushing and receiving is second overall behind Kupp's ridiculous season. Add Aiyuk at 200+ DYAR and the 49ers went from one of the worst WR corps in the league during the Shanahan era to one of the best. Deebo is probably the best WR the team has had since TO. It is crazy how well they have drafted the position over the last 3 years. Also Juice at FB putting up receiving numbers that would make him a top 15 TE is insane. What a crazy set of play makers. The offensive skill position players in the NFC West are ludicrous. Everybody in the division is about to draft secondary help in at least 2 rounds for the next decade. Has there ever been a division where all 4 teams finished in the top 10 before this year? The division just seems insane from a talent perspective.
#6 by theTDC // Jan 10, 2022 - 1:51pm
Seahawks are the most unfortunate. 8th best DVOA in the league and all they get is 7 wins. Still, I think they were a touch inflated, probably due to playing from behind a lot. I don’t think they’re quite that good of a team. Having said that, they missed Russell Wilson for a ton of weeks, so maybe they really are that good.
It would be interesting to see a list of best divisions in history by both average rank, and average DVOA. I suspect the list would see a lot of early 90s NFCE teams.
#22 by dank067 // Jan 10, 2022 - 5:43pm
The Seahawks oddly finished 8th in team passing DVOA despite Russ finishing 12th in individual passing DVOA. (And yes, Geno's DVOA was worse.) I guess some of the teams whose starting QBs finished ahead of Wilson must have been hurt more acutely by QB absences than Seattle was, but since Wilson missed parts of 4 games, the "hurt" to Seattle was spread out across more games and probably ended up having more of an impact on their W-L record.
#19 by Vincent Verhei // Jan 10, 2022 - 4:55pm
Just for fun, here's Herbert's passing DYAR by down yesterday:
First: -50 DYAR on 20 plays
Second: 22 on 24
Third, but not fourth (usually we lump them together): -52 on 17 (only Zach Wilson was worse on third downs)
Fourth: 86 on 6
#30 by Noahrk // Jan 11, 2022 - 11:45am
Thank you, I was going to ask something similar, but I can already guess the answer. Herbert's DYAR on that last drive was surely close to zero as well. The Chargers might have scored, but converting 4th and long after 4th and long is not sustainable, and surely DVOA picks up on that.
#17 by jheidelberg // Jan 10, 2022 - 4:38pm
I see in another FO article that Gettleman has retired. After treating us to the fine offense of Fromm and Glennon I figured that the Giants could open up Met Life Stadium and fill it for the retirement party. It would be the only way to fill the stadium.
They must have left over refreshments to serve.
Hired in 2017, his Giants career had the shelf life of an NFL running back. Saquon Barkley? He actually lasted this long after that pick? This was his first pick as a GM, so he got off the ground running the wrong way.
#20 by Joey-Harringto… // Jan 10, 2022 - 5:04pm
The last time I saw Storm Norton, he was in training camp with the Jim Caldwell-era Lions, but didn't survive final cuts. So imagine my surprise when I saw him starting for the Chargers in a do or die game. Maxx Crosby dominating him, was unsurprisng, however.