Travon Walker and the Case for the Combine

NFL Draft - With no top-shelf quarterback prospects available in this year's NFL draft, teams have understandably turned to the most valuable position on the defense: edge rusher. Michigan's Aidan Hutchinson is a strong candidate to be the No. 1 overall selection, and many analysts project that Oregon's Kayvon Thibodeaux and Georgia's Travon Walker will also be drafted in the top 10. Edge rusher is widely considered to be one of the strengths—if not the greatest strength—of this year's draft.

So will the 2022 NFL draft's edge rusher class live up to its reputation? One tool that could potentially help answer that question is SackSEER, Football Outsiders' system for projecting college edge rushers. SackSEER uses pre-draft workout data along with college statistics to project the NFL pass-rushing prospects of defensive ends and 3-4 outside linebackers.

SackSEER agrees with the conventional wisdom that this is a generally strong and deep draft for edge rushers. That said, contrary to some draft hype, there is a considerable degree of uncertainty as to just who is most likely to succeed. In SackSEER, Hutchinson, Thibodeaux, and Walker are all effectively tied, with only a small fraction of a sack separating their projections.

SackSEER is based on a statistical analysis of all edge rushers drafted in the years 1998 to 2019, and measures the following:

• The edge rusher's projected draft position. Specifically, the rankings from ESPN's Scouts Inc.
• An "explosion index" that measures the prospect's scores in the 40-yard dash, the vertical leap, and the broad jump in pre-draft workouts.
• The prospect's score on the 3-cone drill.
• A metric called "SRAM" which stands for "sack rate as modified." SRAM measures the prospect's per-game sack productivity, but with adjustments for factors such as early entry in the NFL draft and position switches during college.
• The prospect's college passes defensed divided by college games played.

As always, Football Outsiders' 2022 NFL draft coverage is presented by Underdog Fantasy!

Below, we take a look at some of SackSEER's top prospects in the 2022 NFL draft, along with some similar prospects from previous drafts.

Travon Walker, Georgia

SackSEER Projection: 27.2 Sacks Through Fifth Season
Scouts Inc.: No. 8 Overall
Similar Historical Prospects: Ezekiel Ansah, Brian Orakpo

Travon Walker's draft stock has risen in recent weeks, and in SackSEER he manages to edge Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux by a small margin.

Walker's best SackSEER metrics come from his terrific combine. His workout numbers ranged from good to fantastic. His 4.51s 40-yard dash was great, especially for a 272-pound player. His 6.89s 3-cone drill is in the top 10% of drafted edge rusher times. His 35.5-inch vertical leap and 10-foot, 3-inch broad jump were also good.

Of course, what drags him down a bit—and why many NFL fans are likely skeptical of his high draft position—is his lack of college production. Walker had only 9.5 sacks in three college seasons. Is Walker another "workout warrior" whose lack of college production foreshadows a disappointing NFL career? Don't be so sure.

It may be counterintuitive, but workout scores are a more significant indicator of NFL success than college sack rate. Of course, you would prefer a prospect who had both production and workouts, but if you had to choose, historically you would be better off with the "workout warrior" than the productive player with bad workouts. In college, players such as Ezekiel Ansah and Clay Matthews had even fewer career sacks than Walker, and both turned out to be strong NFL players. Meanwhile, Jarvis Jones and Calvin Pace—strong college performers with poor workout numbers—had only a limited impact in the NFL.

Walker is a strong prospect. However, like the other members of this year's "big three," he is not a "generational" prospect, and his projection is weaker than the projection for recent top edge rusher prospects such as Myles Garrett and Chase Young.

Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan

SackSEER Projection: 26.9 Sacks Through Fifth Season
Scouts Inc.: No. 1 Overall
Similar Historical Prospects: Robert Quinn, Aldon Smith

Aidan Hutchinson is a prospect that SackSEER has difficulty figuring out. On the one hand, Hutchinson was terrific as a senior, recording 14 sacks in 14 games. However, SackSEER is normally skeptical of a prospect with only one good season, especially when that season was the player's senior season. In Hutchinson's case, of course, that gloss would be totally unfair. Hutchinson did not have a true junior year, as Michigan only played two games in a COVID-shortened season. You really would have liked to see what Hutchinson could have done as a junior. To Hutchinson's credit, he finished with a strong passes defensed rate, which does suggest professional success.

Hutchinson's workouts were similarly mixed. Hutchinson's 6.73s 3-cone drill was terrific—it is better than the times of all but three edge rushers drafted since 1998. His explosion drills, however, were just average.

It all adds up to a projection that is certainly positive—there is more to like than not to like with Hutchinson. However, there are some weaknesses in his projection, which means that Hutchinson is a very good prospect rather than a great one.

Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon

SackSEER Projection: 26.6 Sacks Through Fifth Season
Scouts Inc.: No. 7 Overall
Similar Historical Prospects: Brian Burns, Ryan Kerrigan

Kayvon Thibodeaux is certainly athletic, but his workouts do not quite match his reputation. Thibodeaux had a great 4.58s 40-yard dash at the combine. However, he reserved the other workout drills for his pro day, and those numbers were less impressive. His 9-foot, 11-inch broad jump was lower than what you would expect from a player with a similar 40, and Thibodeaux did not perform a vertical leap. Thibodeaux also ran the 3-cone in 7.32 seconds, which is much, much slower than one would expect from a player with Thibodeaux's straight-line speed. Again, Thibodeaux's workouts were good, but they were far worse than other combine-busters of drafts past, such as Von Miller and Khalil Mack.

To Thibodeaux's credit, similar prospects who were hyped as athletic but disappointed in actual workouts—namely, Jason Pierre-Paul and Carlos Dunlap, whose workouts were far worse than Thibodeaux's—ultimately had an NFL career more consistent with their hype than their workout numbers. Thibodeaux could certainly follow a similar path, and he may just be one of those unusual prospects whose athleticism just does not translate into combine drills.

Thibodeaux's production paints a similarly uncertain picture. Again, Thibodeaux was good, but not quite great. Thibodeaux had 19 sacks in 30 games. That is much better than average but falls behind some of the great prospects such as Terrell Suggs and Julius Peppers.

Thibodeaux is an excellent prospect with a lot to his credit, and he is certainly worthy of a first-round pick. However, he is not quite a "can't miss" prospect, and no result—whether it be future star or bust—should really be surprising.

George Karlaftis, Purdue

SackSEER Projection: 25.4 Sacks Through Fifth Season
Scouts Inc.: No. 24 Overall
Similar Historical Prospects: T.J. Watt, Justin Smith

Karlfatis has a strong projection and is an interesting prospect because he has some unusual splits in his SackSEER numbers. First, Karlaftis performed very well in the two jump drills, recording a 38-inch vertical leap and a 10-foot, 1-inch broad jump. Typically, a player who performs well on the jumps also runs a quick 40-yard dash. However, Karlaftis did not. He ran a 4.78s 40-yard dash, which is below average.

A similar split occurs with Karlaftis' production. Typically, edge rushers become more productive as they advance in college, which is why SackSEER is more impressed with a 10-sack junior season than a 10-sack senior one. However, Karlaftis arguably performed best as a freshman. He recorded 7.5 sacks in 12 games as a freshman while only recording 4.5 sacks in 12 games as a junior. Karlaftis, however, did record four passes defensed as a senior and his projection benefits from a strong passes defensed rate overall.

Karlaftis, in many ways, is the perfect edge rusher for this draft, which has lots of potential but also includes a fair share of question marks.

David Ojabo, Michigan

SackSEER Projection: 25.1 Sacks Through Fifth Season
Scouts Inc.: No. 20 Overall
Similar Historical Prospects: Will Smith, Harold Landry

It is a true shame that David Ojabo tore his Achilles tendon during Michigan's pro day because he is an intriguing prospect with a lot to his credit. Ojabo showed great explosion at the NFL combine, recording a 4.55s 40-yard dash, a 35-inch vertical leap, and a 10-foot, 2-inch broad jump. Ojabo loses some points because he did not have a 3-cone time and his time in the short shuttle—a relatively slow 4.55 seconds—implies that his 3-cone would have been much worse than his explosion numbers suggest.

Ojabo was also extremely productive early in his career, a good sign for success. Ojabo had 11 sacks in 13 games when just a sophomore at Michigan. However, early production is not a guarantee of professional success, as there have been prospects such as George Selvie, who put up strong sack numbers as sophomores and then faded over their final two years. A skeptic might also suggest that Ojabo benefited tremendously from having possible first overall pick Aidan Hutchinson drawing attention on the other side of the field. That said, Ojabo also made a few plays other than sacks and finished with a good passes defensed rate.

Ojabo's injury makes his likely draft position highly uncertain. A team willing to wait a year for Ojabo to recover could end up getting great value if he turns out as good as some of his SackSEER numbers suggest.

Jermaine Johnson II, Florida State

SackSEER Projection: 23.7 Sacks Through Fifth Season
Scouts Inc.: No. 10 Overall
Similar Historical Prospects: Bradley Chubb, Kamerion Wimbley

Jermaine Johnson is a very similar prospect to Travon Walker. Johnson's combine was excellent, although not quite as good as Walker's. Johnson ran a quick 4.58s 40-yard dash and had a great broad jump at 10 feet, 5 inches. Johnson did disappoint a bit at the vertical leap, gaining only 32 inches.

The biggest difference between Walker and Johnson is that Johnson did not run the 3-cone. Walker had an extremely quick 6.89s 3-cone. SackSEER thinks that Johnson's 3-cone would have been approximately 7.17 seconds based on Johnson's other drills.

Johnson was more productive than Walker, notching 11.5 sacks as a senior and recording a slightly better passes defensed rate. However, because workouts are a stronger indicator of edge rusher success than sack production, Walker's workouts put him on top. Overall, despite being SackSEER's sixth-ranked prospect, Walker is fewer than four sacks away from Walker, SackSEER's top-rated prospect. Johnson's proximity to Walker demonstrates just how closely SackSEER rates the top edge rushers in this year's draft, and how a smart team might be able to snag a promising player at virtually any point in the first round.

Drake Jackson, USC

SackSEER Projection: 20.9 Sacks Through Fifth Season
Scouts Inc.: No. 52 Overall
Similar Historical Prospects: Jerry Hughes, Rashan Gary

Drake Jackson is a bit unusual in that he performed every combine drill except for the 40-yard dash. That said, Jackson was excellent in the drills that he did perform in pre-draft workouts: he notched a 36.5-inch vertical leap and a 10-foot, 7-inch broad jump at the combine and then a 7.09s 3-cone at his pro day. Jackson had very consistent production at USC, recording nearly the same sack total in each of his three seasons—approximately one sack every two games. He also finished with four PBUs, which gives him a better-than-average passes defensed rate.

Overall, Jackson is a solid prospect and could be great value where he is currently rated, which is somewhere in the second round—and his SackSEER numbers are not far off from the top prospects. Indeed, if you did not adjust for expected draft position, Jackson's projection would be comparable to that of the big three.

Boye Mafe, Minnesota

SackSEER Projection: 19.5 Sacks Through Fifth Season
Scouts Inc.: No. 46 Overall
Similar Historical Prospects: Cliff Avril, Chandler Jones

Overall, Boye Mafe performed better than any prospect in this draft in the "explosion" drills. Mafe recorded a 4.53s 40-yard dash, a 38-inch vertical leap, and a 10-foot, 5-inch broad jump, which are all great numbers. However, he fared less well on the agility drills, and his 3-cone time of 7.24 seconds was much slower than you would expect for an edge rusher who can run a sub-4.6 40.

Mafe's projection also suffers a bit from lack of production. Mafe only recorded three passes defensed in 31 games, which translates into a below-average passes defensed rate. Mafe's sack numbers were just slightly above average for a drafted edge rusher—Mafe recorded 7.0 sacks in 12 games in 2021 and 4.5 sacks in six games in 2020.

Like many edge rushers in this draft, Mafe's projection suggests some flaws, but his strong workout numbers suggest that he could have a tantalizing upside.

Potential Sleeper

Sam Williams, Mississippi

SackSEER Projection: 12.1 Sacks Through Fifth Season
Scouts Inc.: No. 139 Overall
Similar Historical Prospects: Maxx Crosby, Mark Anderson

This year, SackSEER may differ slightly with the conventional wisdom as to whether Player X should be ranked over Player Y but agrees with the general area where draftniks rate each edge rusher. The biggest exception, however, is Sam Williams, and the closer you look at his numbers, the more you wonder why he is flying under the radar.

Williams has a profile that reads like a high pick. He ran the 40-yard dash in 4.46 seconds at 261 pounds. His vertical leap was a bit disappointing at 32.5 inches, but that sticks out because he performed a 12-foot, 3-inch broad jump, which is very good. He rounded out his combine performance with a 7.03s 3-cone at his pro day, suggesting that he has good lateral movement to go with his explosion.

Williams also had 12.5 sacks in 13 games on an SEC team last year. His production was just OK before last year. Overall, his production stacks up just fine against the other edge rushers available. Although it is a good draft for edge rushers generally, this year's class is a bit weak in sack rate. Williams' career sack rate is no worse than Travon Walker's, Aidan Hutchinson's, Jermaine Johnson's, or that of many other highly-rated prospects. Williams' worst metric is his passes defensed, but his workout numbers make up for it.

The quintessential SackSEER sleeper is a consistently productive small school edge rusher with lots of passes defensed. Historically, NFL teams tend to underrate productive edge rushers from small schools, overrate unproductive edge rushers from large programs, and completely ignore pass defensed rate. Interestingly, Williams checks none of those boxes, and instead fits the profile of a player who would typically command a high pick. However, for some reason, he seems to be slotted in the fourth round.

The following table lists the SackSEER projections and ratings of all of the 2022 edge rusher prospects who received invites to the NFL combine. SackSEER projection considers forecast draft position; SackSEER rating represents the player's position among all historical edge rusher prospects in our database, regardless of projected draft position.