Matt Ryan: Not Washed?

NFL Week 6 - Matt Ryan's tenure with the Indianapolis Colts did not start well, and it's not likely to end well. But for one glorious Sunday afternoon, he showed he can still be one of the NFL's most effective passers.

Ryan set a career-high with 42 completions in the Colts' 34-27 win over Jacksonville in Week 6, completing 72.4% of his 58 passes for 389 yards. He also threw three touchdowns, including a 10-yarder to Jelani Woods that put the Colts ahead in the fourth quarter, then a 32-yard game-winner to Alec Pierce with 17 seconds left. Even accounting for this game, the Jags have been pretty good on defense this year—10th overall, 13th against the pass—and thanks in part to a boost from opponent adjustments, Ryan finishes with 203 total DYAR. That includes 211 passing DYAR, the second-best total of the year behind Patrick Mahomes' five-touchdown massacre of Arizona in Week 1.

The win pushed the Colts into a tie for the AFC South lead at 3-2-1 (the 3-2 Titans had a bye this week), but that does not mean Ryan is having a good year. Going into Monday night, he ranked 29th in DYAR and 27th in DVOA, close to such names as Joe Flacco, Carson Wentz, and Davis Mills. He has had negative DYAR in three of his six games with a horseshoe on his helmet, and a negative DVOA four times. His -198 passing DYAR against Jacksonville in Week 2 is the NFL's worst of the year so far; his Week 5 game against Denver is also in the bottom 10. Not what the Colts were hoping for when they traded for Ryan and agreed to take on over $24 million in guaranteed salary over the next two years.

Is this the best game we have ever seen from a quarterback in the midst of an otherwise terrible season? Not quite. Our list of great quarterback performances includes 297 regular-season games with at least 220 combined DYAR. Ryan doesn't qualify for that list right now, but he is within shouting distance, and could easily make it if Jacksonville's defense catches fire down the stretch. But there are two quarterbacks who did qualify in years where they still finished with negative passing DYAR.

The first is Jim Everett, who had once been a very good quarterback for the L.A. Rams, leading the league in touchdowns in both 1988 and 1989. But he got off to a slow start in 1993, completing less than half his passes and averaging only 5.2 yards per throw with two touchdowns, six interceptions, and a pair of sacks as the Rams went 1-2. He rebounded in a big way in Week 4, completing 19 of 28 passes for 316 yards against the Houston Oilers, throwing three touchdowns without a single interception or sack. Warren Moon's 80-yard touchdown pass to Ernest Givins cut L.A.'s lead to 14-13 in the third quarter, but Everett iced the 28-13 victory with a 22-yard touchdown pass to Travis McNeal and then a 48-yarder to Henry Ellard. The Oilers finished 12-4, ranking first in overall defensive DVOA and second against the pass. With opponent adjustments, Everett finished with 253 total DYAR, the third-best game of that season, but his success would not last. The rest of that year, his completion rate dropped back below 50% and he threw only three more touchdowns, giving up a half-dozen picks and 16 sacks in only five starts. He was eventually benched for T.J. Rubley, finishing the season 29th in DYAR, 31st in DVOA. That was his last year in Anaheim; Everett moved on to New Orleans, where he made the top 10 in DVOA and DYAR in both 1994 and 1995 before wrapping up his career with the Chargers. (If this all sounds familiar, we covered this game a few weeks ago in our look at great shootouts.)

Drew Bledsoe had a lot in common with Everett—both were tall, immobile pocket-passers drafted in the top three who were very productive for multiple teams in their careers. In 2003, Bledsoe's second year in Buffalo, the Bills got off to a great start, stomping New England 31-0 in the Lawyer Milloy revenge game. Bledsoe was mostly a bystander in that outing, watching as his defense intercepted Tom Brady four times, but he ripped up the Jaguars in Week 2, going 19-of-25 for 314 yards with a pair of long touchdowns (a 54-yarder to Bobby Shaw, a 36-yarder to Eric Moulds) and no interceptions or sacks. The Bills led by at least 11 points for the entire second half and comfortably won by a final margin of 38-17. The Jacksonville defense was mediocre that season, ranking 18th in DVOA against the pass, but Bledsoe still finished with 243 DYAR, one of the 10 best games of the year. It was not to last, however. Bledsoe finished with a league-high 49 sacks that year, including 47 in the 14 games after his beatdown of the Jaguars. Under constant harassment, he completed only 56.9% of his passes in that stretch, throwing eight touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and finishing 31st in DYAR and 30th in DVOA. He spent two more years as an average starter, one in Buffalo and one in Dallas, before losing his starting role to Tony Romo and retiring after the 2006.

Everett and Bledsoe are the only two players with 220-DYAR games in negative-DYAR seasons. The next closest is Boomer Esiason, who was basically dead-on replacement level (10 DYAR, -10.8% DVOA in over 400 passing plays) with the Cincinnati Bengals in 1990. Two years after leading the league in DVOA and winning the MVP award, Esiason stumbled out of the gate, throwing seven touchdowns with seven interceptions and 12 sacks in his first four games. A 3-1 record masked those struggles somewhat, and then Esiason and the Bengals found themselves in a shootout with—seriously—Everett and the Rams. The Bengals took a 21-0 lead with Esiason tossing two touchdowns to James Brooks, but the Rams came back to tie the score at 28-28. Each team added a field goal in regulation, and the Bengals got another in overtime to win 34-31. Esiason finished 31-of 45 for 490 yards, throwing three touchdowns with no interceptions and only one sack. Without adjustments, Esiason had 326 YAR, one of the top five games on record. Unfortunately for Boomer, the 1990 Rams finished last in the league in both total defense and pass defense by DVOA, and the resulting opponent adjustment stampede knocks him all the way down to 250 DYAR … which was still the second-best game that season. It was an anomaly, however, as Esiason went back to his struggles for the rest of the year, throwing 14 touchdowns with 15 interceptions (part of his league-high 22 that season) and 18 sacks in his final 11 games. Esiason had plenty of football left, however—he lasted seven more years in the NFL with the Bengals, Jets, Cardinals, and finally the Bengals again.

So far we have looked at the worst seasons by quarterbacks who had good games, but none of them actually had the best game by a quarterback in the middle of a bad year. That dubious honor came just one year and one week ago. Lamar Jackson's numbers were satisfactory during Baltimore's 3-1 start in 2021, completing 60.5% of his passes for 8.7 yards per throw with four touchdowns, three interceptions, and 11 sacks; he was also averaging almost 70 rushing yards per game. He got Baltimore to 4-1 with a big comeback against Indianapolis in Week 5. The Colts had led 22-3 at one point and were still up 25-9 with less than 10 minutes to go, but Jackson forced overtime with two touchdowns (both to Mark Andrews) and a pair of two-point conversions (also both to Mark Andrews). Jackson then won the game with a touchdown to Marquise Brown in overtime, finishing up 37-for-43 with 442 yards (plus 65 more on the ground), four passing touchdowns, no picks, and only two sacks. Even with minimal opponent adjustments against the Colts' wishy-washy pass defense, Jackson had 272 DYAR, the second-best game of the season. Then the injuries hit. Jackson started only seven more games, winning only three, and in that stretch he threw eight touchdowns with 10 interceptions while taking 25 sacks. He finished 21st in passing DYAR, 19th in DVOA. (He also finished seventh at the position in rushing DYAR, which complicates the question of whether or not this was a truly bad season in the first place.)

Aaron Rodgers is the other active quarterback who joins Jackson in the "good games in bad seasons" list. Rodgers finished 17th with a DVOA of -1.0% in 2015. He was phenomenal early in the year, completing 68.1% of his passes for 9.4 yards per throw (!) with 15 touchdowns, two interceptions, and 11 sacks as the Packers won each of their first six games. The best of those came against Kansas City in Week 3, when Rodgers threw five touchdowns (three to Randall Cobb) in a 38-28 win what wasn't as close as it sounds—Rodgers' last scoring pass put Green Bay up 38-14 before Jamaal Charles scored a pair of touchdowns that meant nothing outside of fantasy football. Kansas City's defense finished in the top 10 in DVOA overall and against the pass, helping Rodgers finish with 265 DYAR, the best game of that year. Green Bay won only four of their last 10 games, however, and in that stretch Rodgers' numbers were mundane: a 57.2% completion rate, 6.1 yards per throw, 16 touchdowns, six interceptions, and 35 sacks. The Packers beat Washington 35-18 in the wild-card round before losing 26-20 to Arizona a week later. If you're reading this, you know that was far from Rodgers' end in pro football.

The following table lists all games with at least 220 DYAR by quarterbacks who finished the season with negative passing DVOA from 1981 to 2021: