Can Baker Mayfield Be Saved?

December 12, 2022, 8:58 pm ET

Los Angeles Rams QB Baker Mayfield

Photo: USA Today Sports Images

NFL Week 14 - Under the circumstances, Baker Mayfield's performance in the Los Angeles Rams' 17-16 comeback win against the Las Vegas Raiders was practically miraculous. But it was also an anomaly in what has otherwise been a very rough season for Mayfield, who now has a chance to pull off a rare, ignominious double play: finishing the year as the worst passer and the worst rusher among qualifying quarterbacks.

By now you're familiar with the details of Mayfield's crazy week: waived by the Carolina Panthers on Monday, booking himself a flight to Los Angeles that afternoon, officially claimed by the Rams the next day, and taking most of the snaps in L.A.'s win barely 48 hours later. Mayfield once famously won a wild-card game playing with "a guy named Blake," but on Thursday night, he was just a guy named Baker.

Of course, you can be a guy named just about whatever you want in 2022 and beat the Raiders, who have spent much of their season turning comfortable wins into heartbreaking losses. After Las Vegas kicker Daniel Carlson hit a field goal early in the fourth quarter, the Rams found themselves facing a 16-3 deficit with less than 13 minutes to play. Mayfield proceeded to lead L.A. on a pair of touchdown drives, going 15-of-19 for 132 yards with a 12-yard DPI, one sack, and a 23-yard game-winning touchdown to Van Jefferson.

Our numbers do not have a "QB was playing on another team two days earlier" variable, and so they are lukewarm on Mayfield's performance, ranking him barely above replacement level. By DVOA and DYAR, this was more of a Raiders loss than a Rams win—Mayfield takes a massive hit in opponent adjustments for playing the worst pass defense in the league, and his counterpart, Derek Carr, finishes as the worst quarterback of the week.

Still, it was perhaps the most complete game of an otherwise terrible season for Mayfield (although he had a better DYAR in Week 9, when he entered the game at halftime with the Panthers trailing the Bengals 35-0). Mayfield now ranks among the bottom six qualifying quarterbacks in completion percentage, touchdown rate, yards per pass, NFL passer rating, and sack rate. And he hasn't produced much on the ground, either, with only 59 yards on 17 non-kneeldown carries. Trey Lance has run for more yards and first downs than Mayfield this season. Further, Mayfield has five total fumbles on running plays, including four fumbled snaps. Only Justin Fields and Josh Allen (each of whom have taken over 300 more snaps than Mayfield) have more fumbled snaps, and only Fields has more total fumbles on runs.

Put it all together and Mayfield is last in the league with -350 passing DYAR, and also last with -68 rushing DYAR. If that holds true through the season's final four weeks, it will be just the second time in our records that one quarterback finished last in both categories. The first: Mark Sanchez in 2012, his last year with the Jets, one of the funniest quarterback seasons ever. There was the Butt Fumble, of course, but let's not forget Sanchez hitting Tim Tebow in the head with a pass. Sanchez spent the rest of his career as a backup, starting 11 games over seven more seasons while spending time on rosters in New York, Philadelphia, Denver, Dallas, Chicago, and Washington.

The closest quarterbacks to matching Sanchez's feat were Carolina's Jimmy Clausen in 2010 and Jacksonville's Blaine Gabbert in 2011, each of whom finished last in passing DYAR and next-to-last in rushing DYAR. San Diego's Ryan Leaf finished next to last in both categories in 2000. There have been 24 other seasons when a quarterback finished in the bottom five in both categories. Two did it twice: current Jacksonville head coach Doug Pederson did it in 1999 with Philadelphia and in 2000 with Cleveland, and Matt Cassel did so in 2009 with Cleveland and in 2015 with Buffalo and Dallas. Other notable names to double up in the bottom five include Buffalo's Vince Ferragamo in 1985, Tampa Bay's Vinny Testaverde in 1991, Washington's Mark Brunell in 2004, Baltimore's Steve McNair in 2007, Washington's Robert Griffin III (!!!) in 2014, and the Jets' Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2016.

If Mayfield doesn't finish last in both passing and rushing, that means one of two things will have happened over the next several weeks: either his statistics will have improved, or somebody else will have played even worse. The former is certainly possible; after all, Mayfield just played one of his best games of the year, with practically zero preparation, and looked much better than either John Wolford or Bryce Perkins has for the Rams this season. We should point out, however, that Mayfield's passing DVOA in Carolina (-36.4%) was worse than that of either Sam Darnold (27.1%) or P.J. Walker (-27.9%)—neither of whom have an aborted snap all year—and that the Rams' current crop of weapons (Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, Tyler Higbee, Cam Akers) is not significantly better than the Panthers' (DJ Moore, D'Onta Foreman, Chuba Hubbard, Terrace Marshall).

Should Mayfield fail to improve, who might pass him in our hypothetical race to the bottom? The most obvious candidate is Indianapolis' Matt Ryan, who is next to last in both passing and rushing DYAR. (Indeed, the passing gap between Ryan and Mayfield is so slim that Ryan may be in last place after Monday Night Football due to fluctuations in league baselines.) Justin Fields is third worst in passing DYAR but is trending upwards, finishing above replacement level three times in his past five games. The most likely candidate is in Houston, where both Davis Mills (-264 passing DYAR) and Kyle Allen (-289) could finish in last place if the Texans would just pick one and let him stink up the joint for the rest of the year. Nobody is likely to catch Mayfield in negative rushing DYAR; after Mayfield and Ryan, the next-worst runner who is still starting is Justin Herbert, and boy are we sick of talking about him around here.

The funny thing is that Mayfield almost certainly would have been passed sooner or later by Ryan or someone else if he had been content to stay on the bench in Carolina instead of asking for his release. Now he's likely to play out the string for the Rams, which means visits to the Packers, Chargers, and Seahawks are in his future, along with a home game against the Broncos. Can Mayfield play well enough against that slate to dig himself out of the basement? It's critical that he does—his contract expires after the season, and his future career path could hinge on what happens over the next month. We'll certainly be paying attention. After all, with no playoff berth on the horizon nor a first-round pick in next year's draft, there aren't many other reasons to care much about the Rams these days.

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
1.	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	30/42	368	3	0	0	220	214	7	TEN
Lawrence's average dropback gained a league-best 9.0 yards. He was dominant in the middle portion of the game, finishing with the league's best passing DYAR in both the second and third quarters; in those 30 minutes of football, he went 24-of-30 for 305 yards and two touchdowns, plus a 20-yard DPI. He was also best on third/fourth downs, going 8-of-12 for 92 yards and five conversions, including a touchdown, plus that 20-yard DPI.
2.	Kirk Cousins	MIN	31/41	425	2	0	3	160	160	0	DET
Cousins loses 37 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He was still the week's best passer on deep balls (7-of-12 for 195 yards) and in the fourth quarter/overtime (8-of-12 for 154 yards with one touchdown and one sack).
3.	Jared Goff	DET	27/39	330	3	0	0	157	161	-4	MIN
No quarterback this week was better from under center than Goff, who went 7-of-10 for 116 yards. Each of those seven completions picked up a first down, including two scores.
4.	Davis Mills	HOU	16/20	175	0	1	0	120	121	-1	DAL
Mills did not have a single dropback inside the Dallas 40; once the Texans got that far, they either went to Jeff Driskel (three passes, including a touchdown, and two runs, both designed keepers) or handed off (10 times). Mills was effective on deep balls, going 3-of-4 for 85 yards; the one incompletion was an interception (which we're counting as a Hail Mary) on Houston's last play of the game.
5.	Brock Purdy	SF	16/21	185	2	0	0	117	108	8	TB
In his first NFL start, Purdy was the week's best passer in the first half, because all of his yards came in the first half. No, really, ALL of his yards came in the first half—in the third and fourth quarters, he went 2-of-3 for exactly zero yards.
6.	Daniel Jones	NYG	18/27	169	1	0	4	88	74	14	PHI
Jones gains 51 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. Despite trailing by multiple scores for most of the game, he only threw two deep balls, completing one for 37 yards.
7.	Deshaun Watson	CLE	26/41	276	1	1	2	56	41	15	CIN
The good news for Watson is that he was the week's best passer out of the no-huddle (7-of-10 for 91 yards and a touchdown, completing each of his first seven throws). The bad news is that he was the week's worst passer in the fourth quarter/overtime (9-of-19 for 75 yards with an interception).
8.	Josh Allen	BUF	16/27	147	1	0	3	55	44	11	NYJ
Allen gains 43 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He only picked up one first down in his first 16 dropbacks, going 7-of-13 for 39 yards with three sacks up to that point. But he added a touchdown pass just before halftime and the Bills never trailed again.
9.	Mitchell Trubisky	PIT	22/30	276	1	3	1	47	47	0	BAL
Trubisky came into the game with Pittsburgh trailing 10-0 late in the first quarter and proceeded to mix in a long string of steady successes with some absolutely brutal mistakes. He had the third-most DYAR lost on sacks and interceptions, but the fourth-most DYAR gained on all other plays. This resulted in some truly bizarre splits. His success rate of 63% was the best of any qualifying passer this week, yet he was still the NFL's worst quarterback in the second quarter (6-of-8 for 67 yards and two interceptions) and on throws to tight ends (4-of-8 for 46 yards with a touchdown and two picks).
10.	Jalen Hurts	PHI	21/31	217	2	0	4	47	4	43	NYG
Hurts led all quarterbacks in rushing DYAR after running seven times for 77 yards and a touchdown. Six of those carries picked up first downs, the longest a gain of 24; the other was a 9-yard gain on first-and-10. Unfortunately, as a passer, he was the week's worst quarterback out of a no-huddle, going 3-of-6 for 7 yards with a sack.
11.	Justin Herbert	LAC	39/51	367	1	0	4	46	56	-10	MIA
Herbert finished the game against Miami with—this is going to require all caps—SEVENTEEN FAILED COMPLETIONS. That's the most in a game since Week 6, when … Justin Herbert threw 17 against the Broncos. Nobody else has come very close; the next-highest total is 14 by Tom Brady against the 49ers this week. For the season, Herbert now leads the NFL with 119 failed completions, Brady is second with 105, and nobody else has even 100.
12.	Mike White	NYJ	27/44	268	0	0	3	40	40	0	BUF
White gains 32 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He did most of his damage throwing to his right or down the middle; to his left, he went 5-of-9 for only 32 yards.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
13.	Patrick Mahomes	KC	28/42	352	3	3	2	40	40	0	DEN
Mahomes gains 62 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. His average completion gained a league-high 9.8 yards after the catch, and he was the week's best passer on throws to running backs (10-of-12 for 135 yards and two touchdowns) and to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage (completing each of his 13 passes for 105 yards and a touchdown). Yes, this is mostly a Jerick McKinnon comment, but we'll have more to say about him later.
14.	Joe Burrow	CIN	18/33	239	2	1	1	34	30	4	CLE
Burrow went a dozen dropbacks before throwing for a first down, going 4-of-12 for only 27 yards up to that point. He got better after that, finishing as the week's best passer on throws down the middle (8-of-10 for 130 yards and two touchdowns), though he was still worst on throws to his right (4-of-11 for 33 yards with an interception).
15.	Baker Mayfield	LAR	22/34	230	1	0	4	7	11	-4	LV
Mayfield loses a league-high 66 DYAR due to opponent adjustments; nobody else loses even 50. If you're wondering why he's going to be L.A.'s starter the rest of the year, consider that between completions and DPIs, he picked up 151 yards on deep balls in this game; that's more yardage on deep balls than John Wolford and Bryce Perkins have all year, combined, and on 10 fewer throws (and three fewer interceptions).
16.	Colt McCoy	ARI	27/40	246	0	1	6	-2	5	-7	NE
17.	Tyler Huntley	BAL	8/12	88	0	0	1	-5	11	-16	PIT
Huntley left the game midway through the third quarter; his replacement, Anthony Brown, went 3-of-5 for 16 yards and a sack. In his limited action, Huntley failed to throw for a first down in Steelers territory, going 1-of-4 for 1 yard (singular) with a sack.
18.	Sam Darnold	CAR	14/24	120	1	0	2	-5	-7	2	SEA
Now here's a weird split for you: Darnold had a league-high seven first downs in the first quarter, going 8-of-9 for 78 yards and a touchdown, but only had one first down the rest of the game. He averaged 4.0 yards per dropback and a 3.7-yard depth of target, both the least in the league, but also averaged a league-low 8.1 yards to go for a first down.
19.	Geno Smith	SEA	21/36	264	3	2	3	-10	-13	3	CAR
Fun with directional splits: Smith was the week's worst passer on throws to his left (6-of-15 for 54 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions), but the second-best on throws to his right (10-of-13 for 170 yards with a touchdown). His average completion gained a league-low 2.4 yards after the catch.
20.	Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	11/28	145	1	0	2	-14	-25	10	LAC
Tagovailoa's average depth of target was a league-high 11.9 yards, but he was successful on 29% of his dropbacks, worst among quarterbacks who started and finished the game. He threw nine deep balls against L.A., including just one completion (a 60-yard touchdown, to be fair) and one intentional grounding foul. Perhaps he needs to check down more often?
21.	Tom Brady	TB	34/55	253	1	2	0	-17	-12	-5	SF
Brady gains a league-high 70 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He was still the week's worst passer inside the opponents' 40, going 9-of-20 for 84 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.
22.	Dak Prescott	DAL	24/39	284	1	2	1	-28	-31	3	HOU
At times it looked like Prescott was doing everything in his power to give the game away to the Texans. Inside his own 20, he went 3-of-5 for 33 yards with one first down, one sack, one fumble, and one interception.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
23.	Mac Jones	NE	24/35	235	0	1	1	-33	-13	-20	ARI
24.	Russell Wilson	DEN	23/36	247	3	1	6	-37	-61	25	KC
Believe it or not, Russell Wilson was the week's best passer in the red zone, completing all three of his passes for 37 yards and two touchdowns. Really! Russell Wilson! Unfortunately he was the week's worst passer in the other 80 yards of the field. He was especially bad on third/fourth downs, going 3-of-8 for 31 yards and two conversions, plus a 40-yard DPI, with a sack and a pick-six.
25.	Ryan Tannehill	TEN	25/38	254	2	1	4	-42	-48	6	JAX
Tannehill loses 40 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He was the week's worst passer in the third quarter, with two completions (a 3-yard loss on third-and-27 and a 4-yard gain on third-and-14), one incompletion, and two sacks. Yes, 60% of his plays went backwards. This is especially damaging because you'll recall that Tannehill's counterpart in this game, Trevor Lawrence, was the week's best passer in the third quarter.
26.	Brett Rypien	DEN	4/8	16	1	1	0	-49	-32	-17	KC
Rypien came into the game with Denver trailing 34-21 in the fourth quarter. In very limited action, he was the week's worst passer on deep balls (0-for-2 with a pick) and to the outside (3-of-4 for 9 yards with a pick), and his 25% success rate was worst among qualifiers.
27.	Derek Carr	LV	11/20	137	0	2	0	-61	-58	-3	LAR
Carr was doing just fine in this game until the Raiders went up 13-3 in the second quarter; from that point forward, he went 5-of-11 for 58 yards with two interceptions. He finished as the week's worst passer in the red zone (1-of-3 for 4 yards with an interception), on throws to wide receivers (6-of-13 for 104 yards and two interceptions), and on throws down the middle of the field (1-of-6 for 4 yards with two interceptions).

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Jerick McKinnon	KC	6	22	0	7/9	112	2	73	3	70	DEN
McKinnon ran for two first downs with a long gain of 7 yards while being stuffed just once. YAWN. Now, let's talk about his receiving numbers. Two of his catches lost yardage, yes, but four of them picked up first downs. And what first downs! Touchdowns of 10 and 56 yards, plus 19- and 24-yard gains.
2.	Christian McCaffrey	SF	14	119	1	2/3	34	1	66	41	25	TB
McCaffrey ran for a half-dozen first downs against Tampa Bay. Five of those carries gained 13 yards or more, the longest a 38-yard touchdown. Meanwhile, he was stuffed three times. His best catch was a 27-yard touchdown on third-and-5.
3.	J.K. Dobbins	BAL	15	120	1	0/0	0	0	59	59	0	PIT
Dobbins ran for five first downs, including gains of 11, 14, and 44 yards, while being stuffed twice.
4.	Miles Sanders	PHI	17	144	2	1/3	11	0	43	47	-4	NYG
Sanders ran for six first downs against the Giants. One of those was a 2-yard touchdown; each of the other five gained at least 10 yards, the longest a 40-yard touchdown. He was stuffed just twice. His one catch was an 11-yard gain on second-and-6.
5.	Pierre Strong	NE	5	70	1	2/2	20	0	37	28	10	ARI
A fourth-round rookie out of South Dakota State, Strong came into this game with only one career carry, but four tackles on special teams. After a number of big plays on Monday night (19- and 44-yard runs on first down, a 3-yard touchdown run, a 16-yard catch on second-and-12), he's probably going to get more time on offense in the future.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	J.K. Dobbins	BAL	15	120	1	0/0	0	0	59	59	0	PIT
2.	Miles Sanders	PHI	17	144	2	1/3	11	0	43	47	-4	NYG
3.	Christian McCaffrey	SF	14	119	1	2/3	34	1	66	41	25	TB
4.	James Conner	ARI	15	85	1	6/7	29	0	30	40	-10	NE
5.	Zonovan Knight	NYJ	17	71	1	2/2	6	0	32	37	-5	BUF
Knight gains 19 rushing DYAR due to opponent adjustments. The Bills stuffed him six times, but he also ran for six first downs, four of which gained double-digit yardage, including a 13-yard touchdown.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Dalvin Cook	MIN	15	23	1	1/2	13	0	-68	-30	5	DET
Cook only ran for two first downs and his longest run gained just 5 yards. He was stuffed five times, including a failed fourth-and-1 run near midfield in the fourth quarter. He did add another first down as a receiver, but then there's what he did when he threw the ball—or rather, when he attempted to throw the ball. .@BigPooh_91 forced the fumble and @JKERB25 came up with the recovery!#MINvsDET \| 📺 FOX \| #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/Xmdwv0mkP1 — Detroit Lions (@Lions) December 11, 2022 This was ruled a sack and a fumble (and Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell confirmed after the game that that was the idea), and that's worth -43 passing DYAR, which we have included in Cook's totals. That brings Cook's combined DYAR to -68, which is the worst game for a running back not just in 2022, but since 2012. And we would have written a lot more about this if we had not realized it at 1 a.m. on Tuesday morning Seattle time.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Dalvin Cook	MIN	15	23	1	1/2	13	0	-68	-30	5	DET

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	Justin Jefferson	MIN	11	15	223	20.3	0	70	DET
Eight of Jefferson's catches gained first downs, including gains of 34, 39, and 47 yards.
2.	Jerry Jeudy	DEN	8	9	73	9.1	3	63	KC
Jeudy's three touchdowns gained 5, 7, and 18 yards. He only caught one other first down, but added one (and 40 yards) on a DPI on fourth-and-4 in the fourth quarter.
3.	Mike Williams	LAC	6	6	116	19.3	1	57	MIA
Four of Williams' catches produced first downs, the longest a gain of 55, and he also had a 10-yard touchdown.
4.	Evan Engram	JAX	11	15	162	14.7	2	44	TEN
Ten of Engram's catches gained at least 10 yards and eight gained first downs, the longest a gain of 25. He also scored 12- and 21-yard touchdowns.
5.	George Pickens	PIT	3	3	78	26.0	0	44	BAL
Each of Pickens' three catches gained first downs, the longest a gain of 42. He added a fourth first down on a 6-yard DPI in the red zone.

Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	Brandon Johnson	DEN	0	4	0	0.0	0	-33	KC
An undrafted free agent out of UCF, Johnson came into this game with three career catches for 12 yards. He still has three career catches for 12 yards.

Football Outisders+ Perks & Features image

Comments

48 comments, Last at 15 Dec 2022, 12:14am

#1 by Joey-Harringto… // Dec 13, 2022 - 7:00am

The top 6 quarterbacks this week is quite a list.

#2 by Aaron Brooks G… // Dec 13, 2022 - 7:41am

Cook’s pass is not reflected in the worst RB by rushing table.

#3 by Eddo // Dec 13, 2022 - 8:18am

Because it wasn't a rushing play, I assume.

#6 by Aaron Brooks G… // Dec 13, 2022 - 9:07am

His total DYAR is wrong (does not match the table above it). The worst rusher table reflects his receiving DYAR and total, but does not include the pass play which is reflected above it.

#7 by Aaron Schatz // Dec 13, 2022 - 9:39am

I will go fix this now!

#12 by Aaron Brooks G… // Dec 13, 2022 - 10:55am

I do appreciate your fast responses to typo corrections.

#4 by KnotMe // Dec 13, 2022 - 8:32am

finishing the year as the worst passer and the worst rusher among qualifying quarterbacks.

Does "worst rusher" for QB actually mean much? There are lots who don't rush much, so worst doesn't seem like much of a difference and more of just a luck thing.

#5 by Ben // Dec 13, 2022 - 8:53am

I assume it accounts for fumbles too, which Ryan has a ton of this year.

#10 by takeleavebelieve // Dec 13, 2022 - 10:39am

IIRC they looked into this and found that even the Tom Bradys of the world can still add value as a runner by picking their spots intelligently, e.g. getting 7 yards on 3rd and 6 when the defense isn’t accounting for the possibility of a scramble. So it would suggest that Mayfield is bad at picking his spots, or that he should throw the ball away more instead of taking losses when trying to scramble out of pressure situations. (Or both.)

#17 by KnotMe // Dec 13, 2022 - 11:31am

Good point. If Matt Ryans corpse can gain 39 yards anything is possible.

#44 by Vincent Verhei // Dec 13, 2022 - 6:51pm

Does "worst rusher" for QB actually mean much? There are lots who don't rush much, so worst doesn't seem like much of a difference and more of just a luck thing.

I don't know if "luck" is the right word, but yes, the QBs with the worst rushing DYAR are usually those who fumble a lot and don't scramble enough to make up for it. Which seems like a problem! We discussed that a little bit in our Decade in Review piece a few years ago:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2020/quick-reads-decade-review-qb-totals

And took a closer look at the complications of measuring QB rush stats last week:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2022/tyler-huntley-justin-fields-and-qb-rushing-quandary

#8 by jmaron // Dec 13, 2022 - 10:23am

That Cook play was blown up because the RG on Minn (Ingram) got tossed aside like a sack of potatoes by the Det DT. All the negative DYAR should go to him, the play likely would have been successful otherwise.

#14 by Will Allen // Dec 13, 2022 - 11:10am

Sacks of potatoes can add a lot to a Thanksgiving or Christmas dinner. They are critical to that staple of casual dining, burger and fries.

This slander of sacks of potatoes is very unfortunate.

#45 by Joey-Harringto… // Dec 13, 2022 - 9:10pm

That DT was waiver wire pickup Isiah Buggs, who plugged a previous hole and has been playing very well for them. Him getting more snaps has coincided from Detroit’s run D trending from worst in the league to merely below average.

#9 by Mike B. In Va // Dec 13, 2022 - 10:28am

Wow, I totally forgot Ferragamo played for the Bills in '85. Then again, that was the year after I left, and man, were they bad.

#11 by Kaepernicus // Dec 13, 2022 - 10:55am

I think the Christian McCaffrey trade is going to go down as one of the best trades of the season. AJ Brown is the best trade and Tyreek Hill is right there as well. After those 2 I think it is CMC. The other thing I have realized watching him play closely for the first time is you really can't compare his contract or positional value to any other RB in the NFL. He is an above average/excellent RB and one of the best slot WR in the NFL using only one roster spot. How much money does an elite slot receiver get? The guy is leading all NFL RBs by a mile in receiving DYAR and runs the most comprehensive route tree, effectively, I have seen since Marshall Faulk. Trading a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round pick for an elite slot receiver and top shelf RB that occupies one roster spot is actually an underpay. It's even better when you look at the remaining structure of the contract. Next season when they have a full off-season to install a Deebo/CMC specific offense with whoever they feel like of Trey/Brock/Jimmy at QB will be something to behold.

Because of that trade, the functional IOL SF constructed out of late round rookies, and the Mooney Ward FA signing I think John Lynch needs to be in consideration for executive of the year. I mean Mr. Irrelevant is literally carrying the team to a probable division title. You could make an argument for Howie Roseman in Philly, Grier in Miami, Schoen in NY, or even Schneider in Seattle. One thing is clear though teams with great FO are separating themselves from the rest. Rebuilds do not take long when you find the right coach/GM combo. If Houston gets these hires right they could be good quickly with all of that draft capital.

On the other end of the spectrum you have the Chargers with Herbert. Herbert is far too talented to be leading the NFL in failed completions. When I was watching that SNF game I had a moment where I did a team swap hypthetical with Tua and Herbert. Can you imagine how unstoppable that Miami team would be with those weapons and Herbert? They would literally be the 2007 Patriots/2013 Broncos. If the Chargers are smart they wipe out the GM/HC in the off-season and bring someone else in. If the Chargers land Peyton in the off-season I would actually take a flier on them winning the AFC West.

#40 by IlluminatusUIUC // Dec 13, 2022 - 3:34pm

The Seahawks side of the Russell Wilson trade is the best of the season

#13 by Bob Smith // Dec 13, 2022 - 11:09am

Baker did have a good start to the playoffs. He had a Passer Rating of 115.2 in his 1st start in the playoffs. Not very many others can beat that. That was a good start, but no where close to the Rating of 143 that Kurt Warner started with, or even the rating of 139.4 that Mark Sanchez had AS A ROOKIE. The one that still amazes me the most however is David Woodley's 2nd start in the playoffs. He had a Rating of 153.8 with the Dolphins in '82. That is still the highest Rating ever put up by a Dolphin QB in the playoffs.

#15 by theslothook // Dec 13, 2022 - 11:18am

Seeing Derrick Carr's implosion, Baker's collapse and now Goffs resurgence is a nice reminder that some QBs are so intertwined in their contexts that it's not a simple of matter of declaring so and so is great and then in the next breath saying so and so sucks.

To piggy back on Aaron Brooks, a lot of these guys are just barometers of the roster talent around them. Even players as good as Philip Rivers would put up mildly disappointing seasons when the talent declined.

I get it though. When you fork over real cash for a QB, you don't want one who is going to swing so wildly depending on the supporting cast. But what alternative choice do you have?

We can run through the list of QBs currently who can be as close to context independent as it gets and you'll quickly run out of names after maybe 5 if you stretch it. That's it. That's less than a 6th of the league at best.

#16 by Aaron Brooks G… // Dec 13, 2022 - 11:27am

I'm not sure I could get to 5 QBs, ever.

#18 by Will Allen // Dec 13, 2022 - 11:32am

Don't even think Brady ever established himself as context independent. Has he ever had a year when he had to overcome below average protection and defense?

#21 by Joey-Harringto… // Dec 13, 2022 - 12:13pm

2006 Brady had Reche Caldwell and elderly Troy Brown to throw to, and it took a legendary Peyton Manning performance to keep him from reaching the Super Bowl.

#23 by Will Allen // Dec 13, 2022 - 12:34pm

Good blocking and good defense will cover for a lot of Reche Caldwelling.

#24 by Aaron Brooks G… // Dec 13, 2022 - 12:35pm

Even that year, he had the best power blocking offensive line who was also good at pass-blocking and defense with two HoFers and another three HoVG guys. When your 3rd worst defender is Asante Samuel...

#26 by Will Allen // Dec 13, 2022 - 12:40pm

The pressure put on a qb when his team's defense sucks is too often overlooked. When a qb knows that his teammates on the other side of the ball are going to get stops, it changes the qb decision tree immensely.

#38 by coltsandrew // Dec 13, 2022 - 2:55pm

I wish more people would bring this understanding to their analysis of QB performance. If a QB knows his defense rarely allows more than 17 points a game, then he also knows that he basically needs 3 TDs to win (and with an average of, say, 9 possessions a game, that means that two-thirds of their possessions can peter out and not cost them a win). But if a QB knows that his defense gives up at least 28 points per game, then he also knows he needs to be fairly aggressive about moving the ball and scoring on every possession. There was an interview with Brady once where he said that playing Manning's teams made him adjust his offensive approach because he knew that he would need to score a certain number of times just to have a chance to win and he couldn't leave points on the field.

#25 by Aaron Brooks G… // Dec 13, 2022 - 12:38pm

Brady has essentially played two years with a bad defense and this year is probably the first when his line has been below median. Evaluating Tom Brady is like evaluating Otto Graham or Joe Montana. How do you control for a guy who never had a bad coach or a bad team in his career?

Ironically, Ryan Fitzpatrick was pretty context-insensitive. He was a chaos agent wherever he went.

#39 by Behemoth // Dec 13, 2022 - 3:28pm

The idea that Tom Brady never had poor protection is not accurate. Early in Brady's career, Patriots' lines were a dog's breakfast, with one consistent position - left tackle. Matt Light was a second round draft pick. He likely belongs in the hall of the very good. Damien Woody was also very good. He started out as a centre and then moved leftward on the line as he aged. The Patriots let him walk in free agency without making much effort to sign him to a second contract. .

From 2001 to 2006, the Patriots had exactly two offensive linemen who made the Pro Bowl - not All-Pro, but the Pro Bowl - each once, in different seasons. Outside of Matt Light, the Patriots used a mix of mid- to late-round draft picks, street free-agents, and other teams' rejects to cobble together an offensive line every year. In 2003, in particular, the Patriots couldn't run the ball worth a damn. Even with a short passing game often designed as stretch runs, the Patriots' sack rate was not especially good.

Here's their list of right tackles:

2001 Greg Randell

2002 Kenyatta Jones

2003 Tom Ashworth

2004 Branden Goren

2005 Tom Ashworth

2006 Nick Kaczur

The *best* of these guys was perhaps somewhat cromulent. Tom Ashworth was sort of OK. He played two years in Seattle after the Patriots. The others didn't make it very far.

Yes, the Patriots had a potentially Hall of Fame line coach - if a line coach would ever get elected to the hall. Yes, they did draft Logan Mankins, and they did become somewhat more stable as time passed, but they were smart enough to realize that their lines were not great at pass blocking. Early Tom Brady was no superhero, but he did have middling success within a system designed to make up for the lack of a great offensive line. Brady's lines in his later years in New England weren't *great* either. They were consistently pretty good, though, although part of that was the approach to get the ball out enormously quickly.

Yes, he sometimes had great defences, but even that often gets over-rated. The Patriots wasted some great offensive years with really, really bad defences too.

Part of the difficulty with these questions, of course, is that it is hard to separate line quality from speed of pass delivery. With the Patriots and Brady, it seems to be more processing speed rather than superb line play that was the big difference. Was Brady completely context independent from line play? No, of course not. No player genuinely is, not even Peyton Manning, as his last couple of years in Indianapolis show.

In any event, yes, in several years Brady had to overcome below average protection and defence.

#41 by theslothook // Dec 13, 2022 - 5:18pm

A minor nitpick. I don't think Brady had to overcome below average protection and defense and the same time. In any case, I think the 2013 season was a good example of a time when Brady had to simultaneously deal with a horrid receiving core and a weakish offensive line as I don't think Scar was there at the time. Not coincidentally, that was the year many people declared Tom Brady's decline phase had begun.

#42 by Aaron Brooks G… // Dec 13, 2022 - 6:05pm

2005 is the only year Brady had a sub-par defense.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/

It's not until 2010 or 2011 that he starts carrying a middling or worse defense. (There was 2002, but the 2002 Pats weren't good)

There's a reason Brady had a game-manager rep for so long. His career in New England was reverse-Elway for years and years.

#19 by Kaepernicus // Dec 13, 2022 - 11:55am

Brady, Montana, Peyton Manning for sure. What Brady was able to do with some pretty mediocre offensive weapons in the early dynasty is incredible. Broken Montana going to KC and winning them their first playoff game since the 70's with a bunch of nonsense players for receivers was also incredible. Manning taking over a pretty loaded roster and elevating it to all-time great heights immediately following a terrible injury is also pretty remarkable. Outside of that big 3 I think you would have to start looking at Marino, Favre, Andrew Luck, Warren Moon, and Elway in the next group. What Luck did early on was incredible. That was a bad team with mediocre coaching and he dragged them to 10+ win seasons right out of the gate. Marino and Favre were incredibly productive even when they had nobodies to throw to through out their career. Marino went how many years straight years with bottom 10 defenses? Warren Moon was productive all the time regardless of his team, coach, or supporting cast. Elway did a lot of work in the first decade of his career with some pretty terrible supporting casts. It is an interesting thought experiment with what I believe is a clear top 3.

Current guys who seem like they could get there are Herbert and Mahomes. Herbert is already proving it. I think he would be on a Luck style run if the Chargers were in a bad division like the AFC South. Mahomes has had incredible coaching and always had Kelce so Reid is probably going to have to retire at some point to get into this group. What he has done this year with that pile of WR2/3 players is incredible though.

#22 by Will Allen // Dec 13, 2022 - 12:30pm

The hardest thing for a qb to overcome is bad blocking, combined with a defense that makes scoring 20+ points necessary. Brady never had to do that. The offensive line that blocked for Montana in K.C. was very good, and the defense was average to good.

Manning's 2010 performance was just crazy good. The oline had Charlie Effin' Johnson starting at left tackle, for cryin' out loud, the lg was bad, too, and the RG was JAG. The defense gave up 388 points.

You need to to back to Tarkenton's first decade to get something similar, although to be fair, Tarkenton sometimes overcame bad blocking, bad defense, AND horrible coaching. His 1970 year with the Giants is probably the greatest context independent qb performance in the Super Bowl era.

#27 by Aaron Brooks G… // Dec 13, 2022 - 12:46pm

My list is basically:

1. P. Manning.
2-5. ?

I would consider Tarkenton (but even he had down years for putrid teams), Favre (with an asterisk), Unitas, and I'm not sure who is fifth. Warren Moon, maybe?

Even Favre wouldn't have been Favre if it weren't for that intervention by Green Bay.

#29 by Will Allen // Dec 13, 2022 - 12:59pm

The volume of bad coaching that Tarkenton absorbed until he was 32, only to come out the other end, still delivering All-Pro caliber performances, really is unprecedented.

#28 by Kaepernicus // Dec 13, 2022 - 12:55pm

Good call on Tarkenton. That call back reminded me of Russ before this disaster of a year. His post LOB, pre-Lockett as more than a PR era was pretty amazing and almost qualifies him for that list. Carroll is a great coach but the middle era offensive lines he dealt with were awful. He made a lot out of nothing for a long time. Sad to see what he is turning into as he gets older. My dad was the one who called out Fran as who Russ reminded him of and after watching some old school highlights I tend to agree. Wilson's 2017 season should have got him the MVP. Leading the team in rushing and the NFL in passing TDs with Eddie Lacy as the main back and Doug Baldwin as WR1 was insane. I hate the guy as a player for all the years of pain, but he really was incredible in his prime.

#30 by Will Allen // Dec 13, 2022 - 1:01pm

Wilson may be baked, but Denver is an incredibly poorly coached team. I wish we could have seen him joined to a staff with a clue.

#34 by KP // Dec 13, 2022 - 2:00pm

There's an article here from the 2012 season preview that was talking about the Tebow-now-Manning Broncos, and it said basically "we have Denver around 8-8 again, because they were a fluky 8-8 playoff team last year that played more like a 5-11 or 6-10 team. Manning is an upgrade on Tebow, but c'mon, it's not like any player is worth 6 wins by himself."

And, well, it turns out Manning is probably worth about 6 wins by himself.

#35 by Aaron Brooks G… // Dec 13, 2022 - 2:06pm

The Broncos went from pythagorean 5.8 to 12.3. The Colts from 9.1 to 3.3. He was worth about 6.5!

#37 by theslothook // Dec 13, 2022 - 2:11pm

That's why I don't think the Broncos were "loaded" when Manning got there. Zoom out and they looked like a version of the Colts; two pass rushers; a good left tackle, and then a bunch of question marks.

In retrospect, the talent was much better and got better over time. However, I don't think that team makes that kind of leap without someone specifically as good as Manning going there.

#31 by theslothook // Dec 13, 2022 - 1:20pm

If we assume the coach, the type of receivers, o linemen, and whatever else is totally out of the QBs control/he must work with whatever he has regardless of input or common sense, the only name I'd feel ok in that context is Manning. Even that comes with the caveat that the coach is willing to let Manning run his offense. Because Manning's offense is fairly portable regardless of the individual ingredients. Maybe Tarkenton too actually.

If we relax that assumption and say a team will try to build around the QBs skillset and will at least gather some free agent bargain bin players who fit stylistically with the scheme the QB likes; then I can come up with a bunch of names. John Elway, Favre, Brady, Marino etc etc. The guys who are obvious hall of famers.

In that situation, the current set of QBs i feel comfortable would still be ok to solid even with a terrible supporting cast would be Mahomes, Allen, and maybe Burrow. Maaybe you can stretch and say Lamar, Herbert, and Watson too.

#20 by big10freak // Dec 13, 2022 - 12:00pm

I have full confidence in Joe Barry making Baker look amazing

#32 by theslothook // Dec 13, 2022 - 1:23pm

A word on Mac Jones. I watched a fair amount of him last year and a fair amount of him this year.

Last year, he was a limited but still effective player who was largely being protected by smart coaching and play design. He didn't wow, true, but he did a lot of high level things like pocket mobility and ball distribution that I was pretty impressed. Another year to grow and I thought he'd be a top 10 fringe type QB by this time of the year.

He looks terrible in all the ways the scouts warned. Maybe its all on Patricia and or the receiving core - but he just feels soooo limited and the coaching staff clearly doesn't trust him at all. Its so alarming that I am close, if not already ready, to call him a bust.

#33 by LyleNM // Dec 13, 2022 - 1:35pm

The general lack of success of recent QBs from the factory schools especially as compared to the success of QBs from non-factory schools (Mahomes, Allen) makes me really want to pump the brakes on anointing Stroud and Young at the top of the draft this coming year and suggest that Levis is probably the guy that ends up with the most success. We'll see what QBase has to say about it after the season....

#36 by Aaron Brooks G… // Dec 13, 2022 - 2:08pm

Hurts and Burrow seemed to work out okay.

But then, even Cal had Rodgers.

#49 by t.d. // Dec 15, 2022 - 12:14am

before the tyreek hill trade, I was sure Tua would never have as good a receiving corps as he did at Alabama (credit the Miami organization for proving me wrong); Burrow is still unlikely to ever top a JaMarr Chase-Justin Jefferson depth chart as a pro, great as the Bengals' receivers are; don't know if it's the nationalization of recruiting /consolidation of the conferences (until Harbaugh and Kirby Smart broke through, it felt like Bama-Ohio State-Clemson had three of the four playoff spots locked down every year), but this has felt like the least competitive decade in college football in my lifetime, and it isn't uncommon for the skill position talent at a premiere SEC school, OSU, or Clemson to genuinely be better than at many pro teams (hell, DK Metcalf never got targeted in college because he had a teammate who was better, and he was only at Ole Miss); makes it hard to evaluate their qbs

#43 by Kaepernicus // Dec 13, 2022 - 6:46pm

He seems very accurate with average anticipation. He also does not seem to make good plays off-platform ever. Even Jimmy G makes off platform plays. Tom Brady does too. If you have below average arm strength you have to be great at anticipating to be an above average starting QB in the NFL. Right now Mac seems like he will top out in the Goff level of QB

#46 by ImNewAroundThe… // Dec 14, 2022 - 11:35am

Yes. But I want to talk about the sustainability of Baker on the football field and how much that's worth.

#48 by Johnny Ocean // Dec 14, 2022 - 1:29pm

Welcome to December NFL football where it is really no longer about positional excellence but about grit and heart and creativity. A lot of games are won in December with relatively ugly play and the teams that lose often look good enough to win their games but don't because they are outplayed by teams that know how to win ugly. Kirk Cousins (2) falls to Jared Goff (3), Davis Mills (4) falls to Dak Prescott (22), Daniel Jones (6) falls to Jalen Hurts (10), Deshaun Watson (7) falls to Joe Burrows (14), and Mitchell Trubisky (9) falls to Tyler Huntley/Anthony Brown (17 and Not Rated)

I don't know whether Baker Mayfield will ever become a consistent starting QB in the NFL but I do know that Mayfield can, at times, play like a starting QB because he has done it in the past. Cleveland and Carolina are quite possibly QB destroying franchises. Carolina has shown enough, post-Matt Rhule, to at least prove that Matt Rhule was really a QB Destroyer and not an actual NFL HC. Maybe the same is true of Stefanski. Either way, it would not shock me to see Baker Mayfield lead the Rams to more improbable wins over the next month.

Overall DVOA

Position

Line Stats

Other

Historical Lookups

Single Game DVOA & PGWE

Defense