The Great Anthony Richardson Fantasy Football Debate

NFL Offseason - You have heard the Anthony Richardson fantasy football slander somewhere online. Maybe it's the SEC fan in your life with their "Trust me, I watched him" logic. Maybe it's someone on social media crippled by their 2022 Trey Lance blues. Maybe it's your fantasy football podcast co-host who loves the Skyy Moore and Laviska Shenault "undersized players with few real-life applications but cool names" tier of prospects but has a real blind spot to this potential generational talent.

The debate has pained me, one of the Internet's earliest unironic Josh Allen adopters in my days doing regular content for the fantasy data and betting analytics obsessives at Stokastic.com back in 2018. After a slow start for Allen as he adjusted from lesser competition at Wyoming (and a lot of public skepticism and scrutiny), he returned from injury and piled up four games of at least 99 rushing yards in his final six. That run was topped off by a Week 17 9-for-95, two-rushing touchdown day against Miami when he also threw for three touchdowns and a pick, a 41.5-point day in DraftKings scoring. Allen's tendencies to run and throw deep balls have been a hallmark of his career, even early on, and ones I identified years ago as key ones I want in my fantasy football portfolio.

There are historically two most prominent shades of fantasy productivity at quarterback. Your statuesque pocket passer who'll never run but can sling for 300-plus yards and create massive outlier performances for his pass-catchers is one. Your elite runner who gives you a floor with his rushing ability as well as the role to smash in touchdowns as they have carte blanche to carry the ball anywhere on the field is the other.

There are few who can truly do both. When they do, they typically find the chance to ascend to the hallowed air of your Allens, Jalen Hurts, or Lamar Jacksons. You have had your fleeting moments with Kyler Murray and the current aspirations for Justin Fields after he flashed a gaudy 0.34 Estimated Points Added per rush (a stat from our friends at the glorious data nirvana that is Sports Info Solutions; all the data points in here will come from them) but a woeful -34.5% passing DVOA in 2022.

The fact that we're comparing him to players like this alone should interest you in the concept of an Anthony Richardson, a player who can create value with his legs or through the air. There's a whole lot more to continue with that pro-Richardson sales pitch, one that I will personally swear by as my No. 1 take of the 2023 fantasy football season. But let's talk about his flaws first.

Anthony Richardson Core Passer Metrics

I fully acknowledge that there are some troubling data points from Richardson's star turn as Florida's starting quarterback in 2022. His 0.007 EPA per throw is perhaps only slightly better than a former James Bond actor might provide and well behind C.J. Stroud's 0.309 EPA per throw, Bryce Young's 0.238 EPA per throw, and right there with likely career backup Aidan O'Connell's same EPA mark in the final year for this draft class. Richardson does grade out better than fellow SEC competitor Will Levis and his -0.005 EPA per throw but, hey, they don't give out theoretical points for a surplus of mayo and banana peels in the body.

Will Levis eats banana peels and puts mayo in his coffee and it's possible NFL teams just drew the line with that and said no way.

— Dan Wetzel (@DanWetzel) April 28, 2023

How about some historical comparisons? I dug into the SIS database to find some more quarterbacks who are top outcomes for Richardson, prolific runners who come without a prototypical passing package. So we're talking heavyweights such as Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts, our current Holy Trinity of fantasy quarterbacks who can throw and run. The three faced varied levels of competition, with Hurts likely most aligned to the caliber of teams Richardson faced in the SEC, an important thing to keep in mind.

In these same EPA metrics, Hurts is the clear winner based off his 2019 Oklahoma season. Hurts' 0.388 EPA per throw easily beats the aforementioned 0.007 for Richardson. You can debate how much of that was Hurts and how much of that is Lincoln Riley's scheme, which has now vaulted multiple quarterbacks to NFL success (or at least high draft capital). But Richardson is behind Lamar Jackson's 0.101 EPA per throw at Louisville his last year and ahead of Allen's -0.045 EPA per throw.

Richardson is also the worst of these four with a 2.8% interception rate per attempt (that would also be in line with NFL league average). Hurts was remarkable with a 0.4% interception rate while Allen and Jackson are close to Richardson with a 2.2% and 2.3% interception rate respectively.

A lot has been made of Richardson's poor 53.7% completion rate at Florida last year. It's the weakest amongst the drafted rookies this year, even later picks such as Jaren Hall or an undrafted free agent such as Malik Cunningham. But it's not far off from Allen's 56.3% completion rate, Jackson's 59.1% completion rate, or Hurts' 60.4% completion rate, all likely to be considered "subpar."

The catchable ball rate is also in a similar range with Richardson in the rear. Richardson's 71.5% catchable ball rate is behind Allen's at 73.7%, while Jackson and Hurts both were decimals apart at 76.5% and 76.9% respectively.

Despite higher draft capital than these other three stars, it's safe to say that baseline passing metrics look unfavorably on Richardson even compared to these similar archetypes. One area he stands out is 14.5 yards per completion compared to 14.4 for Lamar, 11.9 for Allen, and 13.5 for Hurts ... but is that enough?

Anthony Richardson's Biggest Weakness

It has to get worse before it gets better in this Curious Case of Anthony Richardson, as Encyclopedia Brown may dub it. And it does not get much worse than Richardson's throws under 10 air yards. You can point to things like his footwork, which some tape-watchers have in prospect breakdowns. You could also point to a subpar cast at Florida that was perhaps unable to handle Richardson's Favre-ian 100 MPH heaters that will bust a knuckle or two at short range.

Anthony Richardson lowlights truly are some of the most mind-boggling plays ever pic.twitter.com/loL22IwHAk

— JA ' (@JKLNN4) May 11, 2023

Either way, Richardson's -0.44 EPA per throw on passes under 10 yards is abysmal, even accounting for the difficulty of stacking up a high EPA on catches likely to be surrounded by multiple defenders. He is worst in the 2023 draft in this area of the field but, oddly, right amidst these other guys with all four as negative-EPA passers in short range. Allen's -0.23 EPA per throw is second-worst, Hurts' -0.18 EPA per throw is third-worst, and Jackson's -0.02 EPA per throw leads the way. For reference, Stroud was tops among non-Stetson Bennett rookies with a 0.08 EPA per throw under 10 air yards while Bennett, unencumbered by any quest to achieve a college degree, notched a 0.18 EPA per throw for the short ones to lead the class.

The accuracy in this range is even worse of a look for Richardson. Richardson's 56.0% completion rate in throws under 10 yards is bottom of the draft class and lower than Allen's 65.2%, Jackson's 68.8%, and Hurts' closer-to-average 75.0% completion rate in this range. None of these guys make their living underneath as pros so perhaps you can excuse the failings of Richardson here. But I have to flag it as something that is downright unappealing and a fair critique, albeit one that explains his overall poor numbers with him schemed to take these under-10-yard throws on almost 50% of his dropbacks.

The good news? Things look up for Richardson from here.

Anthony Richardson Under Pressure

One area that stands out is how Richardson handles pressure. Let's watch a fun video to quickly illustrate:

Just remember of what Anthony Richardson is capable of 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Ezkbkvdv0f

— Ʊ Bring The Juice Ʊ (@BTJPod) May 9, 2023

He's an elite runner of the highest magnitude, which we'll get to in a moment. But his low sack rate really stands out. Once again, he's no Stetson Bennett with the 33rd-best NFL team supporting him on offense as they kept his pressure low at 20.5% and just a 2.1% sack rate. Richardson saw pressure on 37.2% of dropbacks and fought his way to just a 3.8% sack rate, lowest in the class besides well-protected pocket passers such as Bennett and Stroud. That's substantially better than Allen (sacked 7.3% of the time on an alarming 42.3% pressure rate), Hurts (with an identical 7.3% sack rate on a 37.3% pressure rate), and Jackson (5.7% sack rate on a 39.5% pressure rate).

Richardson still brought the lowest EPA of our rushing fantasy quarterback Holy Trinity with a -0.51 EPA per dropback versus pressure, a number behind Allen's 0.52 EPA per dropback, Jackson's -0.46 EPA per dropback, and Hurts' -0.15 EPA per dropback that would be the best in this year's draft class.

I'll take Richardson's core ability to keep plays alive as it relates to his peers, particularly when you account for competition and supporting cast.

Anthony Richardson's Throws over 10 Yards

This is where things get interesting to me. We have talked about the macro of Richardson's throwing ability, the overall counting stats with some advanced metrics that show he's adding some value despite inaccuracy but undeniably not enough value to vault him into the tier of his fellow first-round quarterback peers or most of our Holy Trinity. This is an Anthony Richardson doubter's main critique.

But where do we gain most of our value in fantasy football at the quarterback position? A player's ability to willingly create plays downfield and create value with those opportunities.

Going deep into Anthony Richardson as a prospect today, but I wanted to show this example of his "Get out of jail free" arm.

Just a "Vick-flick" of 50+ air yards. No big deal. pic.twitter.com/pxGM9FPcgO

— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) December 15, 2022

The situation looks better for Richardson when we isolate throws between 10 and 20 air yards. Richardson targeted this area on 27.0% of his throws with a 56.0% completion rate that would be higher than Allen's 55.0% (25.2% dropback rate) and Jackson's 55.7% (20.8% dropback rate) but behind Hurts' 71.3% completion rate (28.5% dropback rate).

Richardson also is only behind Hurts in this 10- to 20-air yard range by EPA metrics. Hurts had a 0.83 EPA per throw between 10 and 20 yards his final year in college, Richardson brings a 0.49 EPA per throw, then we see Allen's 0.45 EPA per throw and Jackson's 0.40 EPA per throw. Much like the other metrics that were bad for Richardson, I won't laud him too much for being slightly ahead of these guys at the same points in their careers. But, once again, he remains in a spectrum of performance one can say is "just as good, maybe better." He would also be ahead of Stroud's 0.44 EPA per throw in this part of the field while behind Young's 0.57 EPA per attempt.

Things get really fun as we move down the field with throws of 20-plus air yards. You may have seen Richardson's cannon at the NFL combine, but the metrics are even more favorable. Richardson attempted passes of 20-plus air yards on 15.4% of his throws, higher than Allen's 15.1% rate, Jackson's 14.9% rate, and behind Hurts' (brilliantly strategized) 18.8% rate. But Richardson leads all four in EPA per throw with a 0.78 EPA per attempt that inched ahead of Hurts' 0.76 EPA per attempt while worlds ahead of Allen's 0.02 EPA per attempt over 20 yards and Jackson's 0.07 EPA per attempt.

Richardson's completion rate also shines downfield in throws over 20 yards with a 42.1% completion rate that compares favorably to Allen's 31.3% and Jackson's 28.9%, but behind Hurts' 50.0% hit rate.

Anthony Richardson as a Rusher

Hopefully we have now started to better wrap our heads around Richardson as a passer with more nuance than the "he can't throw"/"he can sling it" type of debate. So let's get to our main event, the wagyu steak of whom Anthony Richardson is as a player: His rushing.

Win or lose, Anthony Richardson is ⚡️‼️

LSU +2 ✅💰
OVER 51.5 ✅💰pic.twitter.com/QouzNN5Utl

— Odds Shark (@OddsShark) October 16, 2022

Rushing provides a floor for fantasy scoring at quarterback and can open up tremendous passing opportunities if schemed correctly (i.e., the opposite of how the Bears have used Justin Fields for most of his career).

This 2023 NFL draft class does not have anyone in Richardson's tier as a rusher. Every single player besides Dorian Thompson-Robinson comes with a negative EPA per rush, with DTR only at 0.088 EPA per rush himself.

Jackson and Hurts ran a lot in their senior years. Jackson ran 17.9 times per game, Hurts ran 16.6 times. Allen also ran more than Richardson with 9.1 rushes per game compared to Richardson's 8.3 attempts.

Allen was the weakest rusher of the four. He ran for just 2.2 yards per rush (which, in college, does include the fallout from his 7.3% sack rate). He avoided tackles at a 14.3% rate, scored touchdowns on just 5.5% of his rushes, and had a shockingly unimpressive -0.162 EPA per rush. The body was willing but not exactly productive.

Hurts was much better. He averaged 5.6 yards per rush and a better 21.9% avoided tackle rate, a number that is surprisingly in line with Bryce Young in this 2023 class. Hurts had an 8.6% touchdown rate on run plays and a solid 0.058 EPA per rush.

Jackson's success as a rusher at Louisville is no surprise, particularly if you'll recall the ill-advised clamoring for him to enter the NFL as a wide receiver or running back. Lamar clocked 6.9 yards per rush and a great-for-a-RB-let-alone-a-quarterback 31.9% avoided tackle rate, and he scored touchdowns on 7.8% of his rush attempts, good for 0.159 EPA per rush.

Richardson averaged 6.4 yards per rush last season. He brought a 38.0% avoided tackle rate that would be higher than every running back in the class with only Bijan Robinson and college teammate Roschon Johnson coming close at 33.3% rates. Richardson scored touchdowns on 9.0% of his run plays and his 0.178 EPA per rush is the highest amongst Allen, Jackson, Hurts, and any quarterback you can find. (Justin Fields was at -0.008 EPA per rush his final year at Ohio State, since he was not included in everything here but I know one of you is wondering.)

Richardson grades out even against this lofty company as a transcendent runner. With avoided tackle rate generally a sticky stat in the leap from college to the pros—as well as his freakish athleticism and size covered ad nauseum at the combine—it's hard to see how Richardson can fail as a runner. If anything, it seems far more likely he'll be a mainstay on highlight reels the second he can break contain than someone who'll struggle to adjust to NFL speed.

Final AR-guments

Get it? His nickname is "AR." Don't worry, quality puns like that do not require an FO+ sub (though you can get one for 10% off with the promo code "SPAGS!").

My point, and reason for writing this article, is this: I have seen a lot of Anthony Richardson hate in the football and fantasy football communities. There's a lot of love too (shoutout to my fellow true Richardson believers). But it really baffles me how people cannot gravitate towards this guy as a prospect, particularly if you account for how great of a guy he seems so far off the field.

And really, I think a lot of it is a case of misunderstanding. You look at some core metrics or watch a bad mistake like that throw above against Kentucky, I can see how someone might file that away as "He's not good!" You see him soar up best ball drafts and hear people like me extol his virtues endlessly and he feels like some sort of meme cryptocurrency having a moment. You want to see him do it before you have any degree of faith.

From where I stand, there is no player more equipped for the modern NFL or fantasy football. There is no drafted quarterback who landed in a better spot with a coach like new Colts leader Shane Steichen, a man who has meaningfully mentored young guns such as Justin Herbert as the 2020 Chargers offensive coordinator and the last few years with Jalen Hurts as the Eagles OC. Anthony Richardson turns 21 on May 22 and could be a transformational talent in America's No. 1 sport for the next 10 years.

Do you want to be on the right side of history? Or do you want to be the guy who tweets or pops into a YouTube chat declaring that it's "reality" that Anthony Richardson will fail when we're still about four months away from the season?

I have done my best to articulate the case here to save the nonbelievers from themselves. The choice is now yours.