Week 11 DVOA Ratings

Marcus Peters
Marcus Peters
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

We finally have a stir atop the DVOA leaderboard after Week 11, as the red hot Baltimore Ravens become the first team to rank in the top two other than New England/San Francisco since Week 3. The Patriots remain in the No. 1 spot because of their overall performance over the entire season, but the Ravens move up three spots to No. 2 after a huge win over Houston that caps off a spectacular month of performances going back to Week 7. Baltimore has a single-game DVOA over 45% in each of the last four games, peaking with 97.1% DVOA against Houston this week, which is the second-highest individual game of the season so far.

Week 7 is a bit of an arbitary endpoint, although it was the first week after Baltimore traded for Marcus Peters. Since Week 7, however, Baltimore has both the No. 1 offense and the No. 1 defense in the league by DVOA. Baltimore isn't leading the league in our ratings because even weighted DVOA takes a more long-term view of things, giving full strength (or close to it) to the last eight weeks of data. And for Baltimore, that eight weeks includes the last four big wins but also narrow victories over Cincinnati and Pittsburgh as well as a loss to Cleveland. Here's a look at the week-to-week graph for Baltimore, comparing their DVOA to VOA (without opponent adjustments).

Baltimore week-to-week

Baltimore is the only team that has two wins over 80% DVOA this year: this week's win over Houston and their Week 1 blowout of Miami, which was over 120% before opponent adjustments. Here's a look at the biggest single-game DVOA ratings of the year so far:

  1. SF, Week 5, 31-3 over CLE (107.5%)
  2. BAL, Week 11, 41-7 over HOU (97.1%)
  3. KC, Week 2, 28-10 over OAK (85.4%)
  4. LAR, Week 2, 27-9 over NO (83.9%)
  5. BAL, Week 1, 59-10 over MIA (80.3%)
  6. DAL, Week 7, 37-10 over PHI (77.9%)
  7. NE, Week 1, 33-3 over PIT (77.4%)
  8. CHI, Week 4, 16-6 over MIN (73.4%)

The list of the worst single-game DVOA ratings of the year so far is not exactly a list of the same games, just looking at the losers. Obviously, opponent adjustments play a big role in which teams have the worst games by DVOA. But three of the five worst games of this year were played in Week 11. Washington now has the two worst games of the year for their big losses to the No. 29 Giants and the No. 28 Jets. Washington falls two spots to No. 31 this week and it's kind of amazing that Washington still can't get into last place behind Miami. That's how bad the Dolphins were in the first four weeks of the season: Washington has the two worst games of the year and still isn't in last place.

(Washington's drop also means that winless Cincinnati moves up a spot to No. 30. Our season simulator now has Cincinnati going 0-16 in 10.8% of simulations, although that number is probably a little too low. The simulator doesn't quite understand Cincinnati's, shall we say, "reverse incentive structure.")

The other two games from this week that make a list of the worst games of the year are Carolina's 29-3 loss to Atlanta (third) and Houston's loss to Baltimore, which is second on the list of the best games but fifth on the list of the worst games. These horrible games drop Carolina nine spots all the way down to No. 27 and Houston seven spots down to No. 17. Here's the list of the worst single-game DVOA ratings of the year so far:

  1. WAS, Week 11, 34-17 to NYJ (-116.8%)
  2. WAS, Week 4, 24-3 to NYG (-108.4%)
  3. CAR, Week 11, 29-3 to ATL (-105.3%)
  4. CLE, Week 5, 31-3 to SF (-98.4%)
  5. HOU, Week 11, 41-7 to BAL (-93.5%)
  6. MIA, Week 4, 30-10 to LAC (-85.2%)
  7. CIN, Week 4, 27-3 to PIT (-83.3%)
  8. ATL, Week 7, 37-10 to LAR (-80.9%)

Now let's look at the all-time greatest team lists we've been updating here every week. There are two major bits of information in the list of the best defenses ever through 10 games.

First, we have the disappearance of the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers have put up two games with positive defensive DVOA (i.e. worse than average) over the last three weeks, both against the Arizona Cardinals, and that's moved the 49ers off the list of the best defenses ever. They're still in the top 20 but not the top dozen. San Francisco also dropped three spots in total DVOA to No. 5 this week. By the way, how about Arizona moving up into the offensive top 10 this week just one year after having one of the worst offenses in DVOA history? That's pretty incredible. If the season ended today, Arizona would have the third-highest year-to-year increase of offensive DVOA ever, trailing only the 2011 Panthers and the 2017 Rams (and just ahead of the 1999 Raiders and 1991 Cowboys).

Second, this list features the first appearance of the 1985 Chicago Bears. I put a rush on getting 1985 DVOA finished so we could compare the Bears to this year's Patriots and 49ers, and so we'll be leaking out a little bit of Chicago information each week as we compare the 1985 Bears to the other greatest defenses in DVOA history. Then we'll run the full 1985 data with all the individual and team stats tables sometime in February. The Bears will be climbing this list over the next couple weeks, since they won their Week 10-12 games by a combined score of 104-3.

BEST DEFENSIVE DVOA
THROUGH 10 GAMES, 1985-2019
Year Team W-L DVOA
2002 TB 8-2 -42.1%
1991 NO 9-1 -40.5%
2012 CHI 7-3 -35.0%
1991 PHI 5-5 -33.6%
2019 NE 9-1 -32.1%
1997 SF 9-1 -31.9%
1990 CHI 9-1 -30.0%
1985 CHI 10-0 -29.2%
2005 CHI 7-3 -29.2%
2004 BAL 7-3 -28.7%
1991 WAS 10-0 -28.2%
1986 CHI 8-2 -27.3%

Finally, here's the list of the worst teams of all-time. Yes, the Miami Dolphins are still on this list but they move up in DVOA again this week and will be moving off this list in the next couple weeks if they continue to play like they have over the past month.

WORST TOTAL DVOA
THROUGH 10 GAMES, 1985-2019
Year Team W-L DVOA
2005 SF 2-8 -58.3%
2013 JAX 1-9 -57.1%
2009 DET 2-8 -53.6%
2008 STL 2-8 -52.3%
2000 CIN 2-8 -50.0%
2007 CIN 2-8 -48.6%
2019 MIA 2-8 -48.6%
1999 CIN 1-9 -47.8%
1993 TB 3-7 -47.2%
1991 IND 1-9 -47.0%
2010 CAR 1-9 -46.6%
2008 DET 0-10 -46.4%

* * * * *

Stats pages should now be updated through Week 11, including playoff odds, the FO Premium DVOA database and snap counts.

* * * * *

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 11 weeks of 2019, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

RK TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
WEI.
DVOA
RANK W-L OFF.
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEF.
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
1 NE 38.4% 1 35.7% 1 9-1 4.7% 12 -32.1% 1 1.5% 10
2 BAL 33.7% 5 33.5% 2 8-2 24.8% 3 -6.2% 10 2.7% 4
3 KC 29.7% 3 27.6% 3 7-4 25.3% 2 -2.7% 12 1.7% 9
4 DAL 26.2% 4 26.2% 4 6-4 30.6% 1 2.5% 20 -1.9% 25
5 SF 25.9% 2 24.7% 5 9-1 0.4% 16 -25.1% 2 0.3% 16
6 NO 21.6% 7 23.9% 6 8-2 10.8% 8 -8.7% 5 2.1% 7
7 MIN 21.1% 6 21.0% 7 8-3 14.3% 6 -7.0% 7 -0.2% 18
8 SEA 15.5% 9 15.5% 8 8-2 20.5% 4 2.7% 21 -2.3% 27
9 GB 15.1% 8 13.4% 10 8-2 16.7% 5 2.1% 18 0.5% 14
10 PHI 11.6% 11 14.2% 9 5-5 5.0% 11 -7.2% 6 -0.6% 21
11 OAK 2.5% 12 4.6% 11 6-4 12.6% 7 9.8% 29 -0.3% 19
12 LAR 2.3% 13 0.6% 14 6-4 -5.0% 20 -6.7% 8 0.6% 13
13 DET 1.9% 16 1.2% 13 3-6-1 5.8% 10 8.2% 26 4.3% 2
14 IND 0.8% 15 1.5% 12 6-4 0.2% 17 -2.4% 13 -1.8% 24
15 CHI -1.8% 17 -2.3% 15 4-6 -13.3% 26 -9.1% 4 2.4% 5
16 JAX -1.9% 14 -3.0% 17 4-6 -0.8% 18 2.2% 19 1.1% 12
17 HOU -2.0% 10 -3.2% 18 6-4 2.8% 14 6.6% 24 1.9% 8
18 DEN -4.4% 21 -2.9% 16 3-7 -7.8% 22 -6.6% 9 -3.2% 31
19 LAC -4.7% 19 -3.8% 19 4-7 4.2% 13 6.1% 23 -2.8% 29
20 CLE -5.4% 25 -4.7% 21 4-6 -7.3% 21 -0.6% 15 1.2% 11
21 PIT -6.0% 20 -4.7% 20 5-5 -18.3% 28 -12.2% 3 0.1% 17
22 ARI -7.5% 26 -5.6% 22 3-7-1 6.2% 9 11.4% 30 -2.3% 28
23 TEN -7.8% 23 -8.6% 23 5-5 -4.0% 19 0.3% 16 -3.5% 32
24 ATL -9.3% 27 -9.1% 25 3-7 1.4% 15 7.7% 25 -3.0% 30
25 BUF -9.5% 24 -8.7% 24 7-3 -8.4% 23 -1.2% 14 -2.3% 26
26 TB -11.8% 22 -11.6% 26 3-7 -9.3% 24 4.5% 22 2.1% 6
27 CAR -14.2% 18 -16.0% 27 5-5 -12.5% 25 0.8% 17 -0.9% 22
28 NYJ -23.6% 30 -23.1% 28 3-7 -30.4% 32 -4.0% 11 2.8% 3
29 NYG -24.1% 28 -23.4% 29 2-8 -14.5% 27 8.2% 27 -1.4% 23
30 CIN -37.3% 31 -37.1% 30 0-10 -25.3% 29 17.4% 31 5.3% 1
31 WAS -38.0% 29 -41.9% 31 1-9 -28.3% 31 9.0% 28 -0.6% 20
32 MIA -48.6% 32 -45.3% 32 2-8 -27.1% 30 22.0% 32 0.4% 15
  • NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.
  • ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.
  • PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
  • FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
  • VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).
RK TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
W-L NON-ADJ
TOT VOA
ESTIM.
WINS
RANK PAST
SCHED
RANK FUTURE
SCHED
RANK VAR. RANK
1 NE 38.4% 9-1 49.3% 9.7 1 -13.3% 31 -6.9% 26 9.8% 14
2 BAL 33.7% 8-2 39.4% 8.0 6 -6.1% 28 -2.7% 20 15.5% 24
3 KC 29.7% 7-4 24.9% 8.2 5 4.9% 6 6.0% 7 9.9% 15
4 DAL 26.2% 6-4 34.5% 8.9 2 -8.7% 29 0.5% 16 6.3% 4
5 SF 25.9% 9-1 33.3% 8.4 4 -11.0% 30 13.1% 2 15.5% 23
6 NO 21.6% 8-2 27.4% 7.2 9 -0.2% 20 -3.1% 21 10.9% 18
7 MIN 21.1% 8-3 19.8% 8.5 3 0.9% 17 5.2% 8 6.8% 6
8 SEA 15.5% 8-2 14.6% 7.4 7 0.6% 19 6.5% 6 7.6% 7
9 GB 15.1% 8-2 9.4% 7.3 8 6.8% 3 -2.5% 18 16.6% 26
10 PHI 11.6% 5-5 6.5% 7.2 10 2.1% 12 -15.5% 31 19.0% 29
11 OAK 2.5% 6-4 0.8% 6.3 11 1.8% 15 -2.1% 17 12.8% 20
12 LAR 2.3% 6-4 8.9% 5.8 12 -2.3% 24 14.4% 1 15.6% 25
13 DET 1.9% 3-6-1 -3.2% 5.8 13 6.8% 2 -3.3% 23 5.0% 3
14 IND 0.8% 6-4 4.0% 5.8 14 -5.2% 27 -2.7% 19 8.5% 11
15 CHI -1.8% 4-6 -6.7% 5.2 17 2.9% 9 11.6% 3 9.7% 13
16 JAX -1.9% 4-6 -4.9% 5.5 15 -3.9% 26 -5.0% 24 6.6% 5
17 HOU -2.0% 6-4 -2.9% 5.3 16 5.6% 5 1.2% 15 15.5% 22
18 DEN -4.4% 3-7 -4.7% 5.1 18 4.8% 7 3.0% 10 8.0% 8
19 LAC -4.7% 4-7 -3.0% 4.2 25 -1.9% 23 9.4% 5 8.2% 9
20 CLE -5.4% 4-6 -9.8% 5.0 19 6.5% 4 -17.2% 32 20.3% 30
21 PIT -6.0% 5-5 -4.4% 4.9 20 2.0% 13 -8.3% 27 8.3% 10
22 ARI -7.5% 3-7-1 -11.8% 4.7 22 2.5% 10 1.7% 13 9.2% 12
23 TEN -7.8% 5-5 3.8% 4.8 21 -3.1% 25 3.2% 9 14.3% 21
24 ATL -9.3% 3-7 -11.7% 4.4 23 4.1% 8 1.3% 14 17.5% 27
25 BUF -9.5% 7-3 8.9% 4.1 26 -18.4% 32 10.7% 4 2.8% 1
26 TB -11.8% 3-7 -9.3% 3.6 28 1.9% 14 -3.3% 22 4.9% 2
27 CAR -14.2% 5-5 -14.9% 4.3 24 -0.9% 21 2.0% 12 21.7% 31
28 NYJ -23.6% 3-7 -22.2% 4.0 27 -1.3% 22 -10.9% 30 17.7% 28
29 NYG -24.1% 2-8 -29.6% 1.4 30 2.3% 11 -8.4% 28 10.5% 17
30 CIN -37.3% 0-10 -45.6% 1.8 29 8.9% 1 -8.5% 29 11.4% 19
31 WAS -38.0% 1-9 -36.6% 1.0 31 1.5% 16 2.7% 11 22.0% 32
32 MIA -48.6% 2-8 -49.0% 0.0 32 0.8% 18 -6.8% 25 10.1% 16

Comments

154 comments, Last at 29 Dec 2019, 5:18pm

99 And here we get to the…

And here we get to the extreme inefficiency of this market. These confident pronouncements were being made about a guy who barely played in college! It's ridiculous. A sensible evaluation would have stated "He hasn't played enough to really evaluate in a manner that allows us to say anything with confidence. Who the hell knows? If you're desperate for a qb, roll the dice if you are so compelled in the first half of the 1st round, as opposed to taking a player at another position who has provided a sample size which is three times as large".

123 For anybody interested, here…

For anybody interested, here is FO's QBASE rankings for the 2017 draft class:

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2017/qbase-2017

They gave Trubisky a 49% chance of being a bust.  But then they have Watson as a 57% bust and Mahomes at 46%.

" But the risk with Trubisky is primarily related to one phrase in that sentence: "single season." In the past 25 years, only three quarterbacks have been chosen in the top 100 selections after only one year as a college starter: Brock Osweiler, Mark Sanchez, and Matt Blundin. "

 

 

144 Buffalo

pretty shocking they're 25th and behind a team like Atlanta, which straight up quit several weeks, and only started playing football 2 weeks ago

151 This is why you have to love DVOA

In reply to by Sid

Try finding a website that does power rankings that does not rank the Bills in the top half of the league. Their schedule to date comes in at a horrifying -18.4% DVOA and this includes playing the Patriots once.  This must be one of the easiest schedules ever played through 10 games.  I also love that the Bills are number one in variance, basically they play poorly on a consistent basis, but the teams that they have played are so inept that the Bills are 7-3. Thus they have a 58% chance to make the playoffs on the FO playoff odds report.  FO has the best assessment of the Bills, they are not good at all.