Week 16 DVOA Ratings

December 24, 2019, 4:30 pm ET

Dak Prescott

Photo: USA Today Sports Images

The Baltimore Ravens continue to dominate the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings after this week's win over the Cleveland Browns. It's hard to keep moving up when you're already above 40%, but the Ravens move up a little bit this week from 40.8% to 41.8%. The No. 2 New England Patriots also move up a little bit after their win over Buffalo, going from 33.3% to 34.5%.

Although the top ten teams in both total DVOA and weighted DVOA remain the same as a week ago, there is some movement below the top two. Kansas City moves up from fifth to third in total DVOA thanks to a big Sunday night win over Chicago. Seattle drops from sixth to eighth after its upset loss to Arizona, covered in this week's Any Given Sunday column. That means that, yes, Minnesota and Dallas each both move up one spot despite disappointing losses this week. Each team fell in DVOA but dropped less than Seattle. Unlike the Seahawks, the Vikings and Cowboys did not have their worst games of the season this week. Minnesota's worst game by DVOA was a Week 4 loss in Chicago, while Dallas' worst game was the Thanksgiving loss to Buffalo.

Let's talk a little about the Dallas Cowboys, shall we? I've seen a lot of complaints about the advanced metrics, including our DVOA, that have the Cowboys ranked among the league's top ten teams. Let's break the Cowboys down a little bit unit by unit to figure out whether we're overrating the Cowboys.

Dallas ranks 31st in our special teams ratings. We're certainly not overrating them there.

Dallas ranks 20th in our defensive ratings. We could be overrating them there, but that's actually a much lower rank than the Cowboys have in the league's official measures of defense. The Cowboys are 11th in points allowed and yards allowed. And the Cowboys are eighth in the league in yards allowed per play. Why does DVOA have the Dallas defense so much lower than other measures? Schedule is a big part of it, as the Cowboys have faced the No. 28 schedule of opposing offenses.

That brings us to the offense. We have the offense ranked second in DVOA behind Baltimore. Is that too high? To answer that, let's first answer a trivia question. Can you name all the seasons since the merger where the Dallas Cowboys have led the league in offensive yards per play?

I'll give you a hint: there are three seasons where Dallas has led the league in yards per play.

One of them came before we have DVOA and play-by-play data.

And here's the real surprise: the Dallas Cowboys never led the NFL in yards per play when they were led by the triplets of Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin.

The answer to the question: 1971, 2009, and 2019. Yes, it's the Dallas Cowboys not the Baltimore Ravens who currently lead the NFL in yards per play.

I discovered this fact when I went to look at where this year's Dallas offense stacked up against the offenses of the Dallas dynasty years. The 2019 Dallas Cowboys are the second-best offense of the franchise's last 35 years based on DVOA ratings. The only Super Bowl year with a better offense is 1995.

Here's a look at the three Dallas Super Bowl champions compared to this year's Cowboys in DVOA, yards per play, first downs, and turnovers. I also tossed in the 2009 Cowboys and the 2016 Cowboys, Dak Prescott's rookie year. That gives us the six best Dallas offenses since 1985.

Best Dallas Cowboys Offenses, 1985-2019
Year	DVOA	Rk	Pass	Rk	Run	Rk	Sched	Rk	Yd/Play	Rk	FD	Rk	TO	Rk
1995	29.6%	1	51.1%	1	19.8%	1	-2.7%	5	5.78	2	364	1	23	5
2019	24.5%	2	39.2%	5	9.1%	4	-1.3%	9	6.41	1	357	2	17	10
1992	23.6%	2	39.6%	2	13.7%	6	0.5%	16	5.53	3	324	4	24	4
1993	21.8%	2	38.1%	2	18.4%	2	1.2%	19	5.65	2	322	4	22	4
2009	21.7%	3	41.9%	3	13.9%	3	-1.3%	10	6.26	1	335	6	19	4
2016	19.9%	3	38.2%	3	11.5%	2	-0.7%	10	5.97	4	358	4	15	5

The Cowboys are averaging 0.93 yards more than the league average this season. They will likely finish the season with more yards and first downs than any Dallas offense in history. These Cowboys rank lower than other strong Cowboys offenses in turnovers, but only four turnovers are the difference between being tied for tenth and being tied for third.

OK, but haven't the Dallas Cowboys played a really easy schedule this year? Actually, they have not, at least when it comes to opposing defenses. They played an easy schedule early in the season, beating up on the Giants and Washington and Miami. But look at the games the Cowboys have had since the bye week. Five of the Cowboys' last eight games have come against teams ranked in the top ten in defensive DVOA, including the historically great Patriots (in a driving rainstorm, further depressing the Cowboys' offensive numbers for that game). Combine that with Philadelphia now ranking 13th in defensive DVOA, and the Cowboys come out playing one of this year's ten toughest schedules on offense.

Here's one more table featuring those same six teams.

Best Dallas Cowboys Offenses, 1985-2019
Year	Team	W-L	Total DVOA	Rk	Off DVOA	Rk	Def DVOA	Rk	ST DVOA	Rk
1995	DAL	12-4	32.7%	2	29.6%	1	0.9%	13	4.0%	6
2019	DAL	7-8	15.7%	7	24.5%	2	4.7%	20	-4.1%	31
1992	DAL	13-3	35.1%	1	23.6%	2	-9.5%	5	1.9%	8
1993	DAL	12-4	24.9%	1	21.8%	2	0.8%	18	3.8%	7
2009	DAL	11-5	25.5%	5	21.7%	3	-2.9%	10	1.0%	14
2016	DAL	13-3	20.3%	2	19.9%	3	1.1%	18	1.6%	9

What's the difference between this year's Cowboys and the other strong Cowboys offenses? You can blame Dak Prescott and Kellen Moore and the Cowboys offense for having their worst game of the year at the worst possible time, in a division-deciding contest against Philadelphia, but overall the offense is not the problem for the 2019 Cowboys. This offense has been better than the Dallas offenses of most of the legendary triplets seasons. The problem has been defense and special teams, and coaching decisions, and luck and timing. (The Cowboys are 0-5 in games decided by seven points or less, 1-6 in games decided by eight points or less.)

Speaking of timing, there's another reason why conventional wisdom differs so much from advanced metrics when it comes to the Dallas Cowboys: recency bias. The Cowboys have played five of their six worst games of the year over the last six weeks. They were a much better team at the start of the year, but their big win over the Rams in Week 15 is the lone recent bright spot. Here's one of our DVOA week-to-week graphs to show the decline:

Dallas weekly chart

The silver lining for Cowboys fans around this year's cloud is that offense is more predictable than defense. It's likely that the Dallas defense and special teams bounce back next year but the offense continues to play well. The performance in close games will rebound. The in-game decision-making errors may be fixed by a coaching change. There's no evidence that playing worse in the second half of the season carries over to the following season. This Cowboys team is poised to be a serious contender in 2020.

One more note while we're talking about the Cowboys. We'll have to see what happens in the final game against Washington but a close loss could leave the Cowboys with the record for the best DVOA ever by a losing team. However, they probably can't have a win big enough to set a new record for best DVOA by an 8-8 team. Right now both of those records are held by Dick Vermeil Chiefs teams. The 2004 Chiefs (7-9) had 15.1% DVOA. The 2002 Chiefs (8-8) had 24.4% DVOA.

Finally, let's run our "best of/worst of" tables that I've been updating each week. One more game and we can compare this year's teams to the legendary teams over full seasons! That also means that next week I'll be officially unveiling where the 1985 Chicago Bears stand on the all-time total and defensive DVOA tables.

First, Baltimore, which drops a couple of slots this week even though its total DVOA went up:

BEST TOTAL DVOA THROUGH 15 GAMES, 1985-2019
Year	Team	W-L	DVOA
1991	WAS	14-1	57.9%
2007	NE	15-0	55.7%
1985	CHI	14-1	54.0%
1987	SF*	10-2	47.0%
1995	SF	11-4	42.4%
2010	NE	13-2	42.1%
2019	BAL	13-2	41.8%
2012	SEA	10-5	41.1%
2004	PIT	14-1	40.7%
1996	GB	12-3	38.9%
2013	SEA	12-3	38.6%
1999	STL	13-2	38.1%
*only 12 games due to strike

Hopefully, the performance of the 2019 Baltimore Ravens backups this week won't knock the Ravens out of the all-time top dozen. Perhaps I'll put together a "no sitting starters" list that considers where teams such as the 1991 Redskins, 1999 Rams, and 2004 Eagles stood before they started playing backups in the last couple weeks of the season.

The Patriots' overall rating and offensive rating both went up this week, but their defensive rating got a little worse. That only drops them one spot on this table, though:

BEST DEFENSIVE DVOA THROUGH 15 GAMES, 1985-2019
Year	Team	W-L	DVOA
1991	PHI	9-6	-41.1%
1985	CHI	14-1	-34.4%
2002	TB	11-4	-32.1%
1986	CHI	13-2	-31.6%
2019	NE	12-3	-29.2%
1988	MIN	10-5	-27.9%
2012	CHI	9-6	-27.7%
2004	BUF	9-6	-27.2%
2015	DEN	11-4	-26.9%
1995	SF	11-4	-26.9%
2008	BAL	10-5	-26.3%
1997	SF	13-2	-26.1%

Finally, the Miami Dolphins no longer rank on the list of the worst overall teams in DVOA history. Their defensive rating also improved a little bit this week, but not enough to take them off the worst defenses list.

WORST DEFENSIVE DVOA THROUGH 15 GAMES, 1985-2019
Year	Team	W-L	DVOA
1986	TB	2-13	27.9%
2015	NO	6-9	27.2%
2000	MIN	11-4	26.8%
2008	DET	0-15	24.7%
1987	MIA*	7-5	24.4%
1999	CLE	2-13	23.8%
2019	MIA	4-11	22.8%
1986	MIA	8-7	22.0%
1992	ATL	6-9	21.9%
2004	MIN	8-7	21.1%
1996	ATL	3-12	21.1%
2004	SF	2-13	20.2%
*only 12 games due to strike

* * * * *

Stats pages should now be updated through Week 16, including playoff odds, the FO Premium DVOA database and snap counts.

* * * * *

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 16 weeks of 2019, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

RK	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	WEI. DVOA	RANK	W-L	OFF. DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEF. DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
1	BAL	41.8%	1	49.4%	1	13-2	29.8%	1	-11.7%	4	0.3%	16
2	NE	34.5%	2	27.8%	4	12-3	4.6%	11	-29.2%	1	0.7%	12
3	KC	29.5%	5	31.2%	3	11-4	22.5%	3	-4.5%	10	2.5%	7
4	SF	28.3%	3	24.0%	5	12-3	5.9%	9	-21.1%	2	1.3%	10
5	NO	28.0%	4	36.5%	2	12-3	20.4%	4	-3.9%	12	3.7%	3
6	MIN	16.0%	7	18.5%	6	10-5	4.9%	10	-10.6%	7	0.5%	14
7	DAL	15.7%	8	10.5%	9	7-8	24.5%	2	4.7%	20	-4.1%	31
8	SEA	14.5%	6	14.0%	7	11-4	17.0%	5	1.1%	16	-1.4%	23
9	GB	9.9%	9	7.7%	11	12-3	8.3%	7	-1.2%	15	0.4%	15
10	LAR	6.2%	10	4.6%	14	8-7	-0.4%	17	-8.2%	8	-1.5%	25
11	BUF	5.1%	11	13.1%	8	10-5	-5.4%	21	-11.4%	5	-0.9%	20
12	PHI	4.9%	15	5.1%	13	8-7	2.2%	15	-2.9%	13	-0.3%	18
13	TEN	4.8%	12	10.2%	10	8-7	9.2%	6	1.2%	17	-3.2%	28
14	TB	3.3%	13	7.2%	12	7-8	-6.6%	22	-11.1%	6	-1.1%	21
15	HOU	-1.9%	17	-2.1%	17	10-5	0.6%	16	5.4%	22	2.9%	4
16	CHI	-2.3%	14	-5.6%	22	7-8	-10.7%	25	-7.3%	9	1.2%	11
17	IND	-3.3%	21	-2.0%	16	7-8	-2.2%	18	1.6%	18	0.5%	13
18	PIT	-4.9%	16	-4.2%	20	8-7	-24.4%	31	-16.6%	3	2.9%	5
19	LAC	-6.1%	18	-4.9%	21	5-10	2.9%	12	5.4%	21	-3.6%	30
20	ATL	-6.6%	20	-2.7%	18	6-9	2.3%	14	5.7%	23	-3.2%	29
21	ARI	-6.7%	22	0.3%	15	5-9-1	2.9%	13	7.1%	24	-2.5%	27
22	CLE	-7.5%	19	-12.9%	23	6-9	-3.0%	20	4.7%	19	0.2%	17
23	DEN	-8.0%	23	-4.0%	19	6-9	-8.3%	24	-2.8%	14	-2.5%	26
24	OAK	-11.8%	25	-14.4%	25	7-8	6.2%	8	16.6%	31	-1.5%	24
25	DET	-13.3%	24	-22.5%	29	3-11-1	-3.0%	19	11.7%	28	1.4%	9
26	NYJ	-17.5%	29	-14.0%	24	6-9	-25.8%	32	-4.3%	11	4.0%	2
27	NYG	-17.8%	27	-18.3%	26	4-11	-6.8%	23	10.6%	27	-0.4%	19
28	JAX	-22.2%	28	-34.2%	31	5-10	-11.5%	26	12.6%	29	1.9%	8
29	WAS	-22.6%	30	-20.7%	27	3-12	-18.3%	29	7.1%	25	2.9%	6
30	CAR	-24.3%	26	-36.0%	32	5-10	-12.6%	27	7.3%	26	-4.4%	32
31	CIN	-28.1%	31	-22.1%	28	1-14	-18.6%	30	14.5%	30	5.1%	1
32	MIA	-42.1%	32	-31.3%	30	4-11	-18.1%	28	22.8%	32	-1.3%	22

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.
ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.
PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).

RK	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	PAST SCHED	RANK	FUTURE SCHED	RANK	VAR.	RANK
1	BAL	41.8%	13-2	45.0%	12.1	2	-1.7%	24	-4.9%	18	17.1%	22
2	NE	34.5%	12-3	36.8%	12.8	1	-3.8%	29	-42.1%	32	9.3%	10
3	KC	29.5%	11-4	26.7%	11.1	5	1.2%	11	-6.1%	19	9.1%	9
4	SF	28.3%	12-3	26.5%	11.1	4	0.2%	13	14.5%	8	14.8%	19
5	NO	28.0%	12-3	29.6%	11.8	3	0.2%	14	-24.3%	30	8.4%	5
6	MIN	16.0%	10-5	19.0%	9.9	8	-1.2%	19	-2.3%	16	6.7%	2
7	DAL	15.7%	7-8	19.0%	10.4	7	-1.6%	23	-22.6%	29	9.4%	11
8	SEA	14.5%	11-4	8.6%	10.5	6	3.3%	6	28.3%	4	9.1%	8
9	GB	9.9%	12-3	6.8%	9.5	9	0.1%	15	-13.3%	25	18.7%	24
10	LAR	6.2%	8-7	1.8%	8.6	10	6.3%	1	-6.7%	21	20.7%	31
11	BUF	5.1%	10-5	9.0%	7.6	13	-3.6%	28	-17.5%	26	9.1%	7
12	PHI	4.9%	8-7	5.1%	8.5	11	-2.2%	25	-17.8%	27	19.4%	27
13	TEN	4.8%	8-7	11.0%	8.2	12	-3.4%	27	-1.9%	15	16.7%	21
14	TB	3.3%	7-8	5.1%	7.0	18	-0.7%	16	-6.6%	20	8.6%	6
15	HOU	-1.9%	10-5	-1.6%	7.3	14	2.3%	7	4.8%	13	13.6%	18
16	CHI	-2.3%	7-8	-6.0%	7.2	16	1.8%	9	16.0%	6	7.7%	3
17	IND	-3.3%	7-8	0.9%	7.2	15	-4.0%	30	-22.2%	28	12.6%	16
18	PIT	-4.9%	8-7	-1.9%	7.0	17	-1.1%	18	41.8%	1	9.8%	12
19	LAC	-6.1%	5-10	-2.6%	5.6	25	-4.6%	32	29.5%	3	11.7%	14
20	ATL	-6.6%	6-9	-10.0%	6.8	20	3.4%	5	3.3%	14	15.6%	20
21	ARI	-6.7%	5-9-1	-10.7%	6.6	21	4.2%	3	6.2%	10	19.0%	25
22	CLE	-7.5%	6-9	-13.6%	6.3	23	4.3%	2	-28.1%	31	18.2%	23
23	DEN	-8.0%	6-9	-6.5%	6.4	22	1.4%	10	-11.8%	24	13.2%	17
24	OAK	-11.8%	7-8	-10.1%	6.8	19	-1.3%	21	-8.0%	23	20.2%	28
25	DET	-13.3%	3-11-1	-14.4%	5.5	27	1.2%	12	9.9%	9	6.6%	1
26	NYJ	-17.5%	6-9	-12.8%	5.7	24	-4.2%	31	5.1%	11	25.2%	32
27	NYG	-17.8%	4-11	-17.6%	3.6	30	-1.5%	22	4.9%	12	7.9%	4
28	JAX	-22.2%	5-10	-21.9%	5.5	26	-2.6%	26	-3.3%	17	20.3%	29
29	WAS	-22.6%	3-12	-18.8%	4.6	28	-1.1%	17	15.7%	7	19.1%	26
30	CAR	-24.3%	5-10	-26.0%	3.9	29	1.9%	8	28.0%	5	20.4%	30
31	CIN	-28.1%	1-14	-32.3%	3.4	31	3.6%	4	-7.5%	22	12.5%	15
32	MIA	-42.1%	4-11	-39.3%	1.5	32	-1.2%	20	34.5%	2	11.2%	13

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Comments

24 comments, Last at 09 Jan 2020, 5:54pm

#1 by Aaron Brooks G… // Dec 24, 2019 - 6:54pm

Now we need to explain how the Eagles have the 13th rated defense.

#3 by Swilson1472 // Dec 24, 2019 - 7:49pm

from laughing at hearing Yakety Sax follow around the Eagles corners.

#4 by Aaron Brooks G… // Dec 24, 2019 - 10:31pm

I’m not sure the Eagles secondary could stop the Eagles receivers.

#2 by ryan5581 // Dec 24, 2019 - 7:07pm

Where do they rank among those all-time units? Bouncing around the site I think perhaps #5?

#5 by theslothook // Dec 25, 2019 - 6:35am

Assessing where Dak Prescott ranks in the nfl is tough. I am certain hes a good qb. But just how good? For example - is Dak right now better than Rodgers? Is he definitely better than Cousins? What about Matt Ryan?

#6 by Chip // Dec 25, 2019 - 9:00am

Amazing to see the team has 3 of the top 12 all time DVOA units (through week 16). They love their Defense in that city and would prefer that and a QB they can kick in the shins. S

Also, nice to see that the Superfans are right - the 1985 team was up there with the all-time greats (the Hogs, and undefeated Pats).

#7 by Aaron Brooks G… // Dec 25, 2019 - 9:59am

The Wing-T was good enough for Halas, it’s good enough today!

that said, the worst QB they couldn’t drag to a championship game was Kramer.

#17 by TomC // Dec 26, 2019 - 5:04pm

"the worst QB they couldn’t drag to a championship game was Kramer."

Not sure exactly how to parse that, but do you realize Kramer was #1 in the NFL in DYAR in 1995 (and #3 in DVOA)? That team was truly excellent on offense for much of the year, and Kramer had the misfortune to fall into the cracks between the great defenses of the 80s and early 90s and the great defenses of the Lovie era. The 1995 defense was 22nd in DVOA and got rolled over by both expansion teams and the Not Greatest Show On Any Surface Rich Brooks Rams.

#18 by Aaron Brooks G… // Dec 26, 2019 - 6:12pm

Yes, I’m fully aware of Erik Kramer and his slot in the Bears’ history as their best post-war QB.

post-Great War.

I’m also aware he was only about as good as the Bears other retread Lions QBs.

#8 by mitologico18 // Dec 25, 2019 - 11:32am

Why the 2009 Cowboys have 21.7% in total offensive DVOA and the 2019 24.5% although the 2009 have 41.9%/13.9% pass/run dvoa, much higher than the 2019´s 39.2%/9.1% and booth have the same -1.3% sched???

#9 by dfinberg // Dec 25, 2019 - 12:42pm

Play calling balance most likely. If they ran a ton they would get fewer of the higher valued passing plays.

#10 by Aaron Schatz // Dec 25, 2019 - 1:11pm

It's Simpson's Paradox! I almost added a "pass-run ratio" column to the table to show that the 90s teams ran the ball too much. (Yes, you can have Emmitt Smith and still run too much.) Even the 2009 team ran more than the 2019 team. I'll list them here, this is (passes + sacks) / runs without kneels/spikes removed.

1992 1.03
1993 1.03
1995 1.03
2009 1.34
2016 1.02
2019 1.41

Also, 2019 Cowboys are VERY low in the plays that are in DVOA but not passes or runs (False Starts + Delay of Game). They have only 5, lowest in the league. Houston is highest in the league with 30. Those plays are, of course, all negative.

#12 by Aaron Brooks G… // Dec 25, 2019 - 3:37pm

“Too much” implies the efficiency would be the same at different volume.

If you assume Smith and Irvin dragged Aikman along with them, “overemphasizing” the run would generate the efficiency, not reduce it.

Aikman was a system QB. He was a disaster whenever all of the pieces were not present.

#19 by mitologico18 // Dec 26, 2019 - 10:16pm

THANKS¡¡ WOW¡ so 2016 cowboys ran the ball even more than the 90s Cowboys¡ 1.02

#11 by Sid // Dec 25, 2019 - 3:12pm

First we had Buffalo 25th in DVOA, behind Atlanta.

Now we have Dallas as the second best offense.

An elite offense wouldn't have so many bad games.

10 points against the Saints. 9 points against the Patriots. 15 points against the Bills. 9 points against a bad Eagles team.

#13 by Mike B. In Va // Dec 26, 2019 - 8:32am

Buffalo's offense committed a lot of turnovers early on, which really sank their DVOA even if it didn't cost them games. Plus, DAVE has them being really, really bad instead of the kinda meh they actually were. As a predictive measure, their offensive DVOA was probably closer to right than one would think.

Dallas' offense can execute, they just can't score. In the games I've watched, their playcalling seems to do them in as much as anything - Zeke will rip off a couple of seven yard runs and they'll throw two passes and go three and out after moving 30 yards. It's bizarre.

#14 by sbond101 // Dec 26, 2019 - 9:07am

Bizarre really is the word for the analytical situation regarding Dallas's offense. I've watched them a bit (though not as closely as I have some other teams). In addition to underperforming expected wins based on DVOA they have substantially outperformed with respect to fumble luck (17 recovered out of 27 on defense 8 recovered out of 14 on offense), they've only given up 1 punt/kick block, and they've actually been better than their opponents in the red zone. My best insight into how this has happened is that they have gotten really bad results on plays that generally happen in games that are late/close; They've missed 8 of 18 FG's longer than 40 yards, and let opponents convert 10/19 on 4th down (vs. a 34.9% 3rd down rate) - maybe this accounts for the terrible W/L result compared to their per-play efficiency?

#16 by Joseph // Dec 26, 2019 - 11:05am

FG kicking--missing 8 FG's longer than 40 yards means that for average, they should have made about 5 or 6 of them (depending on length). With their close losses, that would certainly explain 1 or 2 of them. Fewer people would be questioning Dallas' rank if they were 9-6 with a couple of close losses.

#15 by BlueStarDude // Dec 26, 2019 - 10:14am

Would love to see the offensive breakdowns for 2006 after Romo became the starter, and 2007 minus the Redskins game at the end (I know starters played for at least a half, but the field was a mess and the Cowboys seemed to be focused on getting players various records—it was nuts; I'm over it).

When I said in the Audibles thread that Dak is too inconsistent, I was taking into account his full body of work over four years. A good rookie season followed by two lackluster seasons and then this year. He deserved a pro bowl nod this season, but the limitations of his game have also been evident, fully on display at the worst times. Ball placement and not seeing open receivers have been consistent issues through all four years. There is the continual, annoying sense that he is predetermining where to go with the ball, and if that doesn't work out, he doesn't seem to be able to compensate (especially now that his scrambling ability has become pedestrian).

Dak doesn’t deserve more blame than the 1a) owner/GM, 1b) special teams, 2) coaching, or 3) lack of defensive talent beyond the front four, but he is playing behind a really good line, with good receivers, good tight ends, and good backs; it seems likely that his flaws will continue to hold this team back unless he can somehow finally correct them.

#20 by Steve in WI // Dec 27, 2019 - 10:02am

So with only one meaningless game left to go, now's as good a time as any to reflect on what the Bears are and what they should do going forward.

Under Matt Nagy, the Bears have gone from -3.4% offensive DVOA last year (bad, for a head coach brought in to be an offensive specialist) to -10.7% this year (abysmal). How much of that is Nagy's system, how much of that is Trubisky, and how much of that is the dearth of quality personnel at TE and OL (ie, Ryan Pace's fault), is debatable, but IMHO I've seen enough that I'm pessimistic that Nagy is or ever will be a good offensive coach.

It's a shame that they have squandered another year of a good defense (and -7.3% defensive DVOA is still good, especially considering how many key injuries they've had this year compared to last). It's a continual frustration to hear Bears fans complain about the defense, particularly in games where the offense scores in the single digits. No, they are not historically good or even one of the top 5 teams this season, but they're plenty good enough to win when paired with a cromulent offense.

So, I am on record as saying that I think Trubisky, Nagy, and Pace are all failures. If I wielded the power, I'd move on from all of them right now (and go a level above Pace and fire Ted Phillips, which is long overdue). But I don't, and there is a 0.0% chance that the Bears clean house this offseason. Given that constraint, I think the Bears should bring all 3 back for next season and give it one last shot. If, as I believe they will, they fail to look like a championship contender, then fire Pace, fire Nagy, and let the new regime decide together who the next franchise QB should be.

I endorse competition for Trubisky in the form of a late-round rookie or a free agent QB, but no free agent that would require a large multiyear commitment. (I would love to see them bring in Kaepernick, but the gutless McCaskeys would never allow it). I don't want them using one of their 2nd round picks or trading up into the 1st round to take another QB who would be the assumed replacement for Trubisky, because I completely distrust this regime's evaluation of the position.

What I don't want to see is a change at only 1 of the GM/coach/QB positions, that would then set up multiple years of half-measures and constraints. Don't fire Nagy and let Ryan Pace hire a 3rd coach (especially when any coaching candidate would have to look at Pace missing the playoffs 4 of his 5 years and question his job security). Don't completely move on from Trubisky and commit the team to another guy for 3-4 years when it's likely that coach and GM will be gone in a year or two. And don't fire Pace but tell the new GM he has to keep Nagy. The Bears have a perfect opportunity here to have everything aligned contract-wise if they do have another failed season next year; if that happens, I don't see how they'd bring any of Pace/Nagy/Trubisky back. And if I'm dead wrong and Nagy and Trubisky look good in year 3, great.

#21 by Sarsgaard // Dec 29, 2019 - 4:38am

It says adjustments were made for NYJ and DEN but they go in the opposite directions I'd expect. NYJ goes down from -14.0 to -18.2 when only considering Darnold games and DEN goes up from -4.0 to -1.3 when only considering a backup QB for the rest of the season. Maybe I'm missing something...

#22 by Sarsgaard // Dec 29, 2019 - 4:42am

If an adjustment was to be made to SEA's Weighted DVOA concerning their disastrous running game situation, what would it be?

#23 by sportsprof // Jan 09, 2020 - 2:32pm

I'm awfully late in commenting on this post. Just registered. FO puts out some great stuff. I have a lifetime in statistics and sports analytics from a variety of perspectives, so I enjoyed your preemptive rebuttal to the stock criticisms of your analytics. However, I think you might want to be a bit more open to evaluating the possible limits or flaws in any particular metric. It is detective work -- what just doesn't look right. Yes, eyes and seat-of-the-pants analysis can fool us, but stats have limitations too. Your DVOA's are very useful stats. Nevertheless, even with adjustments for score gap and quarter (along with other factors), I wonder if the dissonance between what they were saying about the Cowboys and what the eye test was saying for many is in the weight given yardage gained after falling well behind. The Cowboys had 3 really bad offensive games, but they also had 4 others where the final yards per play were impressive but they fell behind by substantial margins. Yes, they still had some chance to win but their win probabilities were really low by halftime in 3 of these. For a fan watching, these tend to count as bad offensive performances, but I wonder just how much the second half performance is discounted if they were able to bring the gap back down.

#24 by Vincent Verhei // Jan 09, 2020 - 5:54pm

Dallas offense DVOA ranks by quarter:

Q1: 15th

Q2: 4th

Q3: 1st

Q4: 2nd

Late and close: 1st

Now, by score gap:

Losing big: 5th

Tied/losing small: 9th

Winning small: 1st

Winning big: 3rd

So they did get better as the game went along, and they were at their worst when they really needed one score. Looks like the numbers back up your theory.

Overall DVOA

Position

Line Stats

Other

Historical Lookups

Single Game DVOA

Defense