Cowboys, 49ers Climb in DVOA with Big Wins

San Francisco 49ers defenders
San Francisco 49ers defenders
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

NFL Week 11 - Some big games lead to some big moves up the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings table this week. But some of those big wins weren't quite so big on the scoreboard. Three games this week had a single-game DVOA over 60%, but one of them will not be obvious.

Let's start with the obvious big wins. San Francisco gets 81.9% DVOA for its 38-10 Monday night dismantling of the Arizona Cardinals. That moves the 49ers up five spots from 11th to sixth this week. San Francisco is currently 11th on offense and seventh on defense. The 49ers offense looks better if you take out the Week 1 game played in a monsoon against the Bears with Trey Lance at quarterback instead of Jimmy Garoppolo. Without that game, the 49ers have 13.6% offensive DVOA which would rank seventh in the league. (Take out their defense from that game, and the 49ers drop slightly from seventh to eighth.) San Francisco's two best offensive performances of the year have come in the last three games.

Another big winner for Week 11 was the Dallas Cowboys, with 73.5% DVOA for a 40-3 stomping of the Minnesota Vikings. That moves the Cowboys up from fourth to second in DVOA. In fact, the Cowboys are now No. 1 in weighted DVOA, which lowers the importance of early-season games. That's because their offense was so bad in Week 1. They can't blame that on Cooper Rush; that was Dak Prescott starting in that game. Without Week 1, the Dallas offense would move from 14th to seventh in DVOA.

The Cowboys are now ahead of the Eagles for the NFC East lead in DVOA although the Eagles are still two games ahead where it really matters, the win column. The Eagles drop to fourth after a close escape against the Colts. It's also interesting to note that the Eagles no longer have the easiest schedule in the division; the Cowboys' remaining schedule is easier than Philadelphia's by average DVOA of opponent. The Christmas Eve matchup between these teams takes place in Dallas, so the NFC East race isn't over yet. (Nevertheless, the playoff odds report still gives Philadelphia a 75% chance to win.)

The third huge winner of the week? That would be the New England Patriots, even though they needed a last-second punt return touchdown to avoid going to overtime with the New York Jets. The Patriots outgained the Jets on average 5.0 yards per play to 2.1 yards per play. They also ran more plays, 59 to 49, meaning that in total they outgained the Jets by nearly 200 yards. The Patriots had 60.1% DVOA for this game. A Jets win would have been a massive reversal according to Post-Game Win Expectancy. The Patriots ended up with a PGWE of 99.9%, and even if you remove the punt return touchdown they still have PGWE of 98%. The Patriots moved up to first in defense and overall improved by nearly five percentage points of DVOA, although that only means one place in the rankings from 12th to 11th.

One other victory that might be a bit larger than expected belongs to the Las Vegas Raiders, who beat Denver 22-16 in overtime. The Raiders had 44.0% DVOA for the win, and the Broncos had -58.5% DVOA for the loss. The Raiders outgained the Broncos 6.6 yards per play to 5.2 and the Broncos fumbled twice but recovered both. The Raiders move up one spot to 26th but the Broncos drop three spots from 22nd to 25th.

In fact, the losers of these games may have moved down even more than the winners moved up. The Minnesota Vikings drop seven spots in DVOA, from 17th to 24th. Yes, if you're asking, they are the worst 8-2 team ever by DVOA. The Jets drop from ninth to 13th. The Cardinals drop from 29th to 31st.

Let's Look at Remaining Schedules

Our total DVOA stats page lists each team's remaining schedule based on average DVOA of opponent. The Cincinnati Bengals have by far the hardest remaining schedule, followed by the Bears and Jaguars. The Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs have the easiest remaining schedules.

However, it's also possible to split up remaining schedules by offense and defense or pass and run to see which teams and units might look better or worse over the rest of the season thanks to who's on the other side of the field. So let's do that and take a look.

For our look at remaining defensive schedules, I took out Week 18 because I know that a lot of readers will be curious about the fantasy football implications here. When we look at remaining offensive schedules, I'm going to include Week 18.

Before breaking down each of these categories, we've got to talk about the Los Angeles Chargers. Comparing their schedule so far to their remaining schedule is absolutely wild.

The Chargers have played the easiest schedule of pass defenses so far, averaging 11.1% DVOA. Yet their schedule of pass defenses gets even easier the rest of the way -- if we don't include their Week 18 game with Denver. For Weeks 12-17, the average pass defense faced by the Chargers allows 14.3% DVOA.

The Chargers have also played the easiest schedule of run defenses so far. However, this schedule gets much, much harder the rest of the way. If we leave out the Broncos in Week 18, the Chargers have the hardest remaining schedule of opposing run defenses. The Chargers' schedule is filled with teams that are better against the run than the pass, including the Raiders (32/22), the Titans (13/1), the Dolphins (29/9), the Colts (14/6), and the Rams (26/5). The one team they play which is significantly better against the pass is Denver in Week 18 (4/18), which won't matter if you have Justin Herbert or Austin Ekeler in the fantasy playoffs.

The Chargers' schedule is even more fun when you look at the offenses they face. So far, only the Pittsburgh Steelers have faced a harder schedule of opposing offenses. For the rest of the season, the Chargers face the easiest remaining schedule of opposing offenses! Sure, the Dolphins have a great offense, but four of Los Angeles' seven remaining opponents are in the bottom eight for offensive DVOA.

So the Chargers go from playing a schedule that's been very easy for their offense and hard for their defense to a schedule that will be very easy for their passing game and defense but hard for their running game.

Here's a look at some other teams on the extremes or about to have a real change in the quality of their opponents on one side of the ball or the other:

Pass Defense (no Week 18)

The New York Jets have faced the hardest schedule of opposing pass defenses so far this year. Their remaining opponents rank 30th in pass defense. This is not a suggestion to pick up Zach Wilson in fantasy football, but you will notice he's got a huge gap between his passing DYAR and YAR on our passing stats page.

Pittsburgh and Green Bay have played the second- and third-ranked schedules of opposing pass defenses so far. Those schedules rank 23rd and 24th in Weeks 12-17. An Aaron Rodgers fantasy football comeback, perhaps?

Baltimore (6 so far, 25 to go) and Washington (9 so far, 31 to go) also face much easier schedules of opposing pass defenses the rest of the way.

On the other hand, the Arizona Cardinals have had it easy so far with the No. 28 schedule of opposing pass defenses. From Week 12 to 17, they face the hardest schedule of opposing pass defenses. Other teams where it gets harder include the New York Giants (23 so far, 4 to go), the Tennessee Titans (21 so far, 6 to go), and the Cincinnati Bengals (18 so far, 5 to go).

Run Defense (no Week 18)

We went over the Chargers already but a number of other teams see their schedule of opposing run defenses get much harder from here on out. The five teams with the easiest run defense schedules so far all have top-10 run defense schedules from now through Week 17. That includes the Seahawks (31 so far, 5 to go), the 49ers (30 so far, 7 to go), the Jaguars (29 so far, 9 to go), and the Falcons (28 so far, 6 to go). The schedule also gets harder for the Giants (26 so far, 2 to go) and the Raiders (23 so far, 3 to go).

The hardest schedule of run defenses so far belongs to the Packers, who have an average schedule the rest of the way. But other teams do see their schedule of run defenses get much easier. That starts with the Chiefs (2 so far, 23 to go) but also the Rams (6 so far, 32 to go), the Cardinals (9 so far, 29 to go), and the Saints (10 so far, 28 to go).

Offense (includes Week 18)

Except for the Chargers, who we already covered above, the changes aren't as large when it comes to the quality of offenses faced.

The top three schedules of offenses faced so far belong to the Steelers, Chargers and Bills. Pittsburgh and Buffalo face average schedules of offenses the rest of the way.

The five teams that have faced the easiest schedules of offenses so far (Eagles, Raiders, Jaguars, 49ers, Titans) have schedules the rest of the way that rank somewhere between 10th and 18th.

The biggest change other than the Chargers belongs to the Houston Texans. So far, the Texans' schedule of opposing offenses has ranked 26th. The rest of the way, it ranks second. Only the Cincinnati Bengals (12th so far) have a harder schedule of opposing offenses for the rest of the season.

Another big change belongs to the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have played the No. 5 schedule of opposing offenses so far. They play the No. 28 schedule the rest of the way, much easier. Other teams with easy schedules for their defenses the rest of the way include the Chiefs, Colts, Cowboys, and, as noted above, Chargers. Alliteration!

* * * * *

Football Outsiders playoff odds, snap counts, and the FO+ database are now all updated through Week 11.

A reminder that all our free stats pages, including DVOA and player position stats, require registration to view. This is not a paywall*! You only need to register (for free) and then log in to the site to view these pages. While you're at it, you can get a seven-day trial of FO+ and check out the FO+ features like a deeper DVOA database, weekly fantasy projections, fantasy football research tools, Derrik Klassen's All-32 game preview column, and picks against the spread (now including projected totals for over/unders).

*New: It's not a paywall, except on Mondays! As of this week, we are now posting DVOA data on Monday instead of waiting until Tuesday as in the past. If you want to see data from the current season on Monday, including all of Sunday's games, you will need to be an FO+ subscriber. On Tuesday morning when we post the update with Monday Night Football added in, all of the free stats pages become free again. The exception will be snap counts, which will still be available to everyone Monday but now will be updated earlier.

* * * * *

This is the Football Outsiders Top 16 through 11 weeks of 2022, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average (explained further here). Click here for the full table.

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. Opponent adjustments are now at full strength. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason forecast with weighted DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how a team will play the rest of the season. DAVE is currently 16% preseason forecast and 84% actual performance for teams with 11 games, and 24% preseason forecast and 76% actual performance for teams with 10 games.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

RK TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
TOTAL
DAVE
RANK W-L OFF.
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEF.
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
1 BUF 32.2% 1 26.5% 1 7-3 14.2% 6 -13.3% 3 4.7% 3
2 DAL 29.1% 4 24.4% 2 7-3 5.5% 14 -18.4% 2 5.2% 2
3 BAL 28.1% 3 22.4% 3 7-3 15.3% 5 -6.4% 11 6.4% 1
4 PHI 26.9% 2 21.9% 4 9-1 16.6% 3 -12.1% 4 -1.8% 24
5 KC 20.6% 5 20.2% 5 8-2 27.3% 1 6.5% 22 -0.2% 15
6 SF 16.4% 11 13.3% 6 6-4 7.1% 11 -10.8% 7 -1.5% 22
7 MIA 12.6% 7 9.2% 10 7-3 25.2% 2 7.2% 23 -5.3% 31
8 SEA 12.4% 6 9.1% 11 6-4 10.5% 7 1.4% 17 3.3% 6
9 TB 12.1% 8 9.6% 9 5-5 2.2% 17 -10.0% 8 -0.2% 16
10 CIN 11.8% 10 11.0% 7 6-4 9.0% 8 -4.3% 13 -1.6% 23
11 NE 10.8% 12 9.7% 8 6-4 -12.8% 26 -19.7% 1 3.9% 5
12 TEN 8.9% 13 7.1% 12 7-3 0.0% 18 -8.6% 9 0.3% 14
13 NYJ 5.7% 9 5.2% 13 6-4 -5.6% 20 -12.0% 6 -0.7% 18
14 GB 1.7% 14 2.4% 14 4-7 8.1% 9 2.9% 20 -3.5% 29
15 CLE -0.7% 15 -0.3% 15 3-7 15.7% 4 13.7% 31 -2.7% 27
16 DET -1.1% 20 -2.8% 17 4-6 7.4% 10 9.2% 25 0.7% 12

Comments

32 comments, Last at 24 Nov 2022, 4:13pm

#1 by Jimmytossinbeachble // Nov 22, 2022 - 2:35pm

Can we get a historical list of where the worst 8-2 teams ranked by DVOA?

Points: 0

#3 by KnotMe // Nov 22, 2022 - 3:34pm

How many do they have to lose before we can stop making those lists? 1? 2? more?

Points: 0

#4 by Jimmytossinbeachble // Nov 22, 2022 - 3:48pm

The beatings will continue until Minnesota's DVOA improves.

Points: 0

#10 by riri // Nov 22, 2022 - 4:51pm

In reply to by Jimmytossinbeachble

It would be so funny if they inverted their start: losing games but winning by DVOA, gradually improving their DVOA as the losses pile up until they're like 14th with a 9-8 record. Until then, the Vikings deserve to be lampooned as the ultimate paper tiger

Points: 0

#11 by Aaron Schatz // Nov 22, 2022 - 5:50pm

I'm hesitant to keep running these in the main commentary because it's a lot of the same teams every week. But here's the list of the 10 worst 8-2 teams. Notice that three of them made it to the Super Bowl! On the other hand, those teams had much higher DVOA than this year's Vikings, who are way in last place now.

Year Team DVOA Rk
2022 MIN -10.2% 24
2000 MIN -3.5% 20
2021 TEN -0.2% 18
1999 TEN 4.2% 18
1981 SF 5.6% 11
2003 CAR 5.9% 14
2021 GB 6.1% 11
2001 CHI 7.3% 11
1997 MIN 7.5% 10
2004 ATL 7.7% 12

 

Points: 0

#12 by Jimmytossinbeachble // Nov 22, 2022 - 6:42pm

I did not expect the gap to be THAT big. Thanks for posting, I definitely find these weekly updates interesting.

Points: 0

#24 by jmaron // Nov 23, 2022 - 11:28am

Vikings dominating the fluky 8-2 teams - I knew this seemed so familiar.

The 97 team had a miracle win against the Giants in the playoffs, and then got pounded the next week in SF (the Viking way after every miracle - immediately squash any sense of hope a fan might have). They drafted Moss the next season and they pretty good for a few years. 

The 2022 version of the Vikings seem more like the 2000 Vikings, a team who's run was up and ready for a big crash starting with 41-0 zip loss the NYG in NFC Championship. The Zimmer teams made decent runs in 17 and 19, but faded as the talent on the defence got old. 

I was of the opinion that running it back with Cousins and other vets was a mistake, the 8-1 start made that thought look foolish, but if they crash and burn the rest of the way, as seems likely, they will have wasted a chance to jettison Cousins and some other aging vets that now have an extra year of wear and tear and far less value. They also had what seems like a very poor draft. Cine was injured, but couldn't get on the field before the injury, Booth looks horrendous, and the only drafted player getting any playing time, Ingram (G) is really bad. Add to that the org cut 3 3rd rounders from 2021 draft already. 

Could be some really bad times coming for Viking fans in the next few years. 

 

 

Points: 0

#25 by Aaron Brooks G… // Nov 23, 2022 - 11:30am

I was of the opinion that running it back with Cousins and other vets was a mistake, the 8-1 start made that thought look foolish, but if they crash and burn the rest of the way, as seems likely, they will have wasted a chance to jettison Cousins and some other aging vets that now have an extra year of wear and tear and far less value. They also had what seems like a very poor draft. 

If you suck at drafting, there's little point to tearing it down.

Points: 0

#2 by dmb // Nov 22, 2022 - 2:36pm

It looks like Week 11 snap count data may have been added for SF/ARI, but not other games:

  • Filtering by Week 11 QBs, without any team filters, yielded only SF and ARI QBs.
  • Filtering by Week 11 ATL LBs yielded no results.
  • Filtering by Week 11 LAR WRs yielded no results.

Points: 0

#5 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Nov 22, 2022 - 4:12pm

Detroit has climbed into the top half of the league by DVOA!  With 7 games remaining, can they hold off GB and catch MIN for the NFC North title?  This week's match up against the Bills is going to be tough, but after that they have Jacksonville, the Jets and Carolina, as well as one game remaining with each of their divisional opponents.

Points: 0

#13 by LionInAZ // Nov 22, 2022 - 9:56pm

Winning the division I don't see, but I can envision them beating out the Giants for the last playoff spot. Not hard to imagine the Giants losing out the rest of the way with their schedule, but I can imagine the Lions at 8-9.

Points: 0

#8 by wooten1283 // Nov 22, 2022 - 4:21pm

"The New York Jets have faced the hardest schedule of opposing pass defenses so far this year."

 

I am sure this considered already, but how much is the Jet's own ineptidude considered in that ranking of pass defense?

Points: 0

#14 by fyo // Nov 23, 2022 - 5:32am

I'm shocked that the Patriots get 60% DVOA for their game against the Jets. I watched large parts of it and it felt pretty horrible.

Perhaps this is somewhat related to the astounding dissonance between conventional passer rating (104.6) and QBR (20.4) for Mac Jones. On the other hand, Jones only rated 50 DYAR in the Quick Reads column, so it isn't like FO's stats loved his play. 6 sacks for 48 yards will do that, I suppose.

Did DVOA see the Patriots' performance as a massive defensive tour de force? Rather than the offensive incompetence from the Jets that it certainly felt like when watching the game?

Points: 0

#15 by HitchikersPie // Nov 23, 2022 - 6:15am

It wasn't mentioned in the quick-reads write up, but I'd suspect a lot of Mac's DYAR came from opponent adjustments against the #5 pass DVOA Jets (-10.8%)

Points: 0

#17 by Aaron Schatz // Nov 23, 2022 - 9:55am

Mac Jones' QBR is probably very low because he was heavily dependent on YAC. QBR takes that out, while DVOA/DYAR does not.

The Patriots for this game: -10% offense, -60% defense, +10% special teams. It's almost all defense, even after adjusting for the Jets offense.

Points: 0

#20 by davelew // Nov 23, 2022 - 10:20am

It's possible that the Jets just had a bad game and only scored 3 points (and two yards of net offense in the second half) despite averaging 20 points a game.  It's also possible that the Colts last week had a bad game when they only scored 3 points against NE despite averaging 16 points per game.  It's possible that the Lions had a bad game and didn't score at all against NE despite scoring 45 points the week before and averaging 25 points per game.  All of this is possible, but at some point, when multiple teams only manage a single field goal or less and no touchdowns, the evidence starts to point to the NE defense being pretty good.

Points: 0

#22 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Nov 23, 2022 - 11:19am

And a good thing it is for NE, too, as their offense continues to struggle with the impenetrable barrier that is the opponent's 30-yard line. 

NE's D, though, seems tuned to take on pocket passers, not mobile guys.  Fields ate them for lunch on 3rd down scrambles, and Allen is likely to do the same in their upcoming games against BUF, both of which they'll likely be trounced in.  I don't think NE's linebackers are fast enough to contain QBs who can make things happen once they escape the pocket.

They should be fine against the Vikings this week, though.  Cousins is exactly the type of QB this year's Pats defense is eating alive.  And although NE's pass rush isn't as good as Dallas', unless the Vikings miraculously fixed their OL woes in 5 days, Cousins is likely be facing more of the same in terms of constant pressure.  If the game was being played outdoors, the Vikings might still have a chance.  But playing in a dome, Folk is likely to kick 5 to 6 40-yard field goals to give NE enough points to not have to rely on a last minute punt return TD to score.

 

Points: 0

#31 by KnotMe // Nov 23, 2022 - 3:31pm

I wish I could find the reference for unbalanced teams (it was mentioned recently IIRC, but search failed me), but the pats -19.7%(1) defense and -12.8%(26) offence combo, while not quite historic, the 32.5% DVOA difference was pretty up there.  

Interestingly, the fringe AFC teams have future schedules in the exact inverse order of their DVOA rankings.  Cin(10-1), NE(11-6), NYJ(13-12), LAC(22-32!) .  Should make an exciting race. 

 

Points: 0

#32 by RobotBoy // Nov 24, 2022 - 4:13pm

Wilson, who the Pats have played twice, is hardly a 'pocket passer'. In the first game, he put up some big plays with his legs. The Pats spied him in the second and he went nowhere. Perhaps there's a learning curve on that front. 

Points: 0

#16 by BlueStarDude // Nov 23, 2022 - 9:32am

Got to love FO (not being sarcastic). On most sites, a Dallas Cowboys headline will get you extra traffic/comments. Here, it's snooze time. (Could be faulty memory, but sure feels like the weekly DVOA article would typically have many more comments than this by now!)

Points: 0

#18 by JForbes // Nov 23, 2022 - 9:58am

I've been having trouble getting to the site recently, don't know if it has been on my end or theirs, but it wouldn't shock me if comments are down the last few days.

Points: 0

#19 by Aaron Brooks G… // Nov 23, 2022 - 10:13am

Keep in mind, the steadiest writers are Eagles and 49ers fans -- so this site has some ingrained loathing for the Cowboys.

Points: 0

#21 by Theo // Nov 23, 2022 - 11:08am

Or this site doesnt partake in the annual "the Cowboys are this year's sleeper team" articles and "the cowboys might have turned it around" articles whenever they win a game. 

Points: 0

#28 by greybeard // Nov 23, 2022 - 1:39pm

Why would writers being 49ers fans matter? I don't remember Dallas matering to 49ers in the last two decades. Are the writers over 50 years old and still living the days of early 90s?

The reason FO comment boards don't care about Dallas is because they have not had any real success since 1995. 

 

 

Points: 0

#29 by Bryan Knowles // Nov 23, 2022 - 2:09pm

To be fair, I am over 50 years old at heart.

Points: 0

#30 by greybeard // Nov 23, 2022 - 2:42pm

Fair enough. To best of knowledge you are the only 49ers fan at FO staff. Are there any others? 

Points: 0

#23 by Cheesehead_Canuck // Nov 23, 2022 - 11:24am

I just can't figure out what DVOA sees in the Packers offense to say it's the 9th best. 20th in D and 29th on ST passes the smell test because that's about the usual every year, no matter what. I'd argue the D should be even better considering some of the names they have, but Joe Barry is excelling in having them perform as lesser than the sum of their parts.

Points: 0

#26 by All Is On // Nov 23, 2022 - 12:09pm

Some of it is opponent-adjustment boosts. They're 9th in offensive DVOA, but only 15th in VOA. They've played the third-hardest overall defensive schedule so far (third-hardest pass defense and hardest run defense as stated above).

Don't be surprised if the offense improves in terms of points scored or aesthetics from here out and we start hearing narratives about the young receivers starting to figure it out.

Points: 0

#27 by DisplacedPackerFan // Nov 23, 2022 - 1:07pm

I'm with you, life has really gotten in the way of me watching the games live and commenting here, but when I've watched replays it's just been so meh. The issues in the past where only Adams could get himself open and the rest of the pass catchers needed scheme to be open is still true for the most part. The timing has been off a lot too, where Rodgers is throwing where he thinks the open receiver should be based on the play and how the defense redacted (I.e. trusting the scheme got them open) and the receiver wasn't there for various reasons (wrong option break, route a bit sloppier and hence slower). Rodgers has also flat out missed the throw on several broken plays where a receiver has worked themselves open too. The run game has been very good at times though, just not always used in the best situations so it doesn't help win chances.

As already mentioned this does show up in DVOA. GB is 17th in pass VOA, and 13 in rush VOA. Bring the adjustments in and that jumps to 16th and 5th and thus 9th overall. VOA often matches the eye test better than DVOA, especially when you don't have time, or camera angles, to really see what was going on. So we don't always see how the good defenses are impacting things, just that they don't look good, which is closer to what raw VOA measures.

Defense is similar, 11th in pass VOA, 28th in run VOA. They can look better than they are.

Take an offense that relies on the more time consuming run, and a defense that can't stop the time consuming run and you get this team. It's not that different from other LaFleur years, it's just missing that pass catcher(s) who gets open enough for the occasional shot play that can get them to/into the end zone.

So again as mentioned by others if Watson/Doubs/Watkins when off IR/Lazard can just rotate games where one of them actually does reliably get open so 15-25 yard passes can happen a couple times a game you are back to 2019 or 2021 offensive production. That will generate the new narrative. It may happen with the easier schedule. I bought into the LaFleur scheme enough that I thought something like that "hot receiver rotation" could happen, and that this year's schedule was soft enough that they would still be in the 11-13 win range. Well the scheme/QB willingness/receiver base level skill sliders aren't good enough for that to work. The schedule of the toughest run defenses and 3rd toughest pass defenses was way harder than I thought and the psychology of players may have lead to some snowballing effects. The special teams mirage of the first four games was revealed, which doesn't help.

While the playoffs are still technically possible I gave up on making it after the Tennessee loss.

Points: 0

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