Week 7 DVOA Preview: Patrick Mahomes is Better than Ever

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

Sunday was no ordinary day for Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Sure, they have dropped 40+ on opponents semi-regularly for years. But Sunday's 44-23 victory over the San Francisco 49ers was the sixth-best offensive game in modern NFL history according to DVOA!

The win also allowed the Chiefs to climb two spots to fifth in our pre-Monday Night Football DVOA rankings.

Not surprisingly, Mahomes led the Chiefs to the greatest single-game performance in history: a Week 9 victory over the Cleveland Browns in 2018, Mahomes' first year as a starter. The 37-21 final score of that game may not stand out, but the devil is in the DVOA details: three 75-yard touchdown drives and a 95-yarder, lots of third-and-long conversions after holding penalties, a pre-halftime Hail Mary interception which doesn't count in our formula, and so forth. 

Drew Brees and LaDainian Tomlinson led the San Diego Chargers to the second-best offensive performance in history: a 45-23 win over the New York Giants in 2005. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills came in third by dropping 47 points on the New England Patriots in the 2021 playoffs. Hall of Famers Willie Roaf, Will Shields and Tony Gonzalez helped Dick Vermeil, Trent Green and the 2003 Chiefs notch fourth-place with a 45-17 win over the Lions. Some fellas named Steve Young and Jerry Rice led the way as the 1991 49ers piled 52 points atop the Chicago Bears for fifth place.

So Sunday's Chiefs are in darn good company. Here's the full list:

Best Offensive DVOA Games

The Chiefs now rank first in offensive DVOA in 2022, as well as first in points per game with 31.9 and first downs per game with 24.4. They rank second in yards per game (403.3), passing yards per game (296.0), yards per play (6.34) and passing yards per play (7.72). They also rank second in overall third-down conversion rate (51.9%) and red zone touchdown conversion rate (76.7%). The Buffalo Bills lead the Chiefs in all of those categories except, critically, red zone conversions, where the Bills rank 15th and the Titans (who don't visit the red zone very often) rank first. 

Mahomes leads the NFL in passing yards (2,159), passing touchdowns (20), passing DYAR (835), and the ever-popular efficiency rating (109.5). He has played one more game than Josh Allen, of course. While all stats and rankings in this DVOA preview are pre-Monday night, neither Justin Fields nor either New England Patriots quarterback is likely to be ahead of Mahomes in any of these categories come Tuesday morning.