DVOA Analysis

Here's another look at scrambles as part of DVOA. Houston and Seattle's running games would look a lot better if we still considered scrambles as running plays, but Tampa Bay's run defense would not look as good.

Washington dominated the 1983 NFL season... until they ran into the Los Angeles Raiders in the Super Bowl. Plus: another great San Francisco year, Dan Marino's outstanding rookie campaign, and perhaps the strangest year of field goal kicking in modern history.

Let's go back in time with another dominant 80s San Francisco squad and Dan Marino enjoying one of the greatest quarterback seasons in NFL history. Plus, the legend of the Chicago defense begins, Eric Dickerson sets the all-time rushing yardage record, and the Rams score three safeties in one quarter.

Something we've never tried before: projections in February. Based solely on simple regression, a few injury returns, and adjusting for weird COVID games, who looks good for 2021?

In the end, the Kansas City Chiefs flipped the switch the wrong way. An impressive Tampa Bay victory leads to a mea culpa and provides evidence that close victories still have something to teach us.

Tampa Bay is No. 1 in our weighted DVOA ratings, but Kansas City's exceptional performance gives credence to the "flip the switch" theory.

Buffalo, Green Bay, and Tampa Bay remain 1-2-3 in weighted DVOA, with Kansas City behind them. How do the Chiefs' playoff odds change if Chad Henne has to start next Sunday? What if we instead assume the Chiefs are actually as good as they were two years ago?

Buffalo remains on top of our weighted DVOA ratings, with Green Bay moving up to No. 2. Now updated through the wild-card round.

New Orleans finishes the year No. 1 in our DVOA ratings, but Buffalo is now the hottest team going into the postseason. Also leading the league in 2020: Green Bay on offense, Pittsburgh on defense, and New England on special teams.

Five of our top six teams score big wins this week, but it's the Buffalo Bills who might be the hottest team in the league with five straight games over 40%. Plus: are teams with better week-to-week consistency more likely to win in the postseason?