The surprising Carolina Panthers are No. 1 in DVOA for the first time in history! Let's look at some similar teams to see how likely it is that they will be able to keep up their early success, especially on defense. Plus, why the Raiders may not be as good as the other 2-0 teams, and can the Chiefs survive despite awful defense?
The New Orleans Saints are No. 1 in our DVOA ratings after Week 1, but what's really impressive is seeing all four NFC West teams in the top six. Plus, DAVE ratings are back for 2021, and we introduce our new NFL formula for Post-Game Win Expectancy. Which three games this week were won by the "wrong" team?
Updated DVOA projections have the Kansas City Chiefs higher than the projection from Football Outsiders Almanac 2021, predicting a Tampa Bay-Kansas City rematch in Super Bowl LVI. Green Bay and Denver are also up; New Orleans, Indianapolis, and Baltimore have all declined since the book.
Here's another look at scrambles as part of DVOA. Houston and Seattle's running games would look a lot better if we still considered scrambles as running plays, but Tampa Bay's run defense would not look as good.
Washington dominated the 1983 NFL season... until they ran into the Los Angeles Raiders in the Super Bowl. Plus: another great San Francisco year, Dan Marino's outstanding rookie campaign, and perhaps the strangest year of field goal kicking in modern history.
Let's go back in time with another dominant 80s San Francisco squad and Dan Marino enjoying one of the greatest quarterback seasons in NFL history. Plus, the legend of the Chicago defense begins, Eric Dickerson sets the all-time rushing yardage record, and the Rams score three safeties in one quarter.
Something we've never tried before: projections in February. Based solely on simple regression, a few injury returns, and adjusting for weird COVID games, who looks good for 2021?
In the end, the Kansas City Chiefs flipped the switch the wrong way. An impressive Tampa Bay victory leads to a mea culpa and provides evidence that close victories still have something to teach us.
Tampa Bay is No. 1 in our weighted DVOA ratings, but Kansas City's exceptional performance gives credence to the "flip the switch" theory.
Buffalo, Green Bay, and Tampa Bay remain 1-2-3 in weighted DVOA, with Kansas City behind them. How do the Chiefs' playoff odds change if Chad Henne has to start next Sunday? What if we instead assume the Chiefs are actually as good as they were two years ago?
