DVOA Analysis

Miami's underlying performance doesn't really match their 3-0 record, although they've won against tough opponents. Plus: a look at future schedule strength.

A huge win over Indianapolis puts Jacksonville high up in DVOA after just two games. But what does it really mean to have a such a big win early in the season, or such a big loss for the Colts?

Many of our top preseason teams were among the top teams in Week 1, starting with the Super Bowl favorites in Buffalo. Plus: an updated Post-Game Win Expectancy formula.

New updated DVOA and win projections still have the Buffalo Bills on top, but the No. 1 offense and defense have changed since FO Almanac 2022.

The 1981 Philadelphia Eagles squandered a strong regular season and the San Francisco 49ers took home their first Super Bowl while the Baltimore Colts had the worst defense in NFL history.

Go back 40 years with 1982 DVOA, to a weird season cut in half by a player strike. The Jets were great, the Chargers offense was great, and Washington won despite not being great.

If you took the best offense and defense in each franchise's history, who would win the Super Bowl? Top contenders include the Patriots, Eagles, and Rams.

Remember when Jason Garrett was going to turn the Giants around? Or when Arthur Smith was going to spark an offensive renaissance in Atlanta? Or when literally anyone was healthy for the Ravens?

Dan Quinn, defensive mastermind? Justin Herbert joins the ranks of the elite? Mac Jones, best rookie QB? Every year, a handful of teams outshine their DVOA projections. Here are 2021's brightest examples.

Dallas, Green Bay, and Buffalo lead our second year of "way too early" projections. And look out for the Baltimore Ravens and their easy 2022 schedule.