DVOA Analysis
Football Outsiders' revolutionary metrics that break down every single play of the NFL season

Week 14 DVOA Ratings

by Aaron Schatz

For a wonderful 24 hours, the Seattle Seahawks were the No. 1 team in DVOA for the first time since Week 1 of 2010 -- and the first time ever in Week 5 or later. Alas, it was not to be, as the Patriots went and clobbered the Texans. New England's victory had a total DVOA of 86.8%, which doesn't even come close to what Seattle did on Sunday. (I wrote about Seattle and the best DVOA games ever yesterday.) However, it was the Patriots' best game of the year, and it propelled them past the Seahawks and into first place.

Some big gaps have opened up between teams in our ratings, with some clear stratification through Week 14. The Patriots and Seahawks have now pulled ahead with two of the best total DVOA ratings of the last 20 years. A little bit behind those teams you will find Denver and San Francisco. Then there's a huge gap. In total DVOA, the gap between San Francisco and No. 5 Green Bay is about 13 percentage points; in weighted DVOA, the gap is between the 49ers and the No. 5 Giants, about 12 percentage points.

If there's one thing right now that FO readers should be telling other football fans who don't read FO, it's this: don't sleep on the Seattle Seahawks.

Yes, yes, I know, they should be 7-6 because of the Fail Mary or Goldengate or what I prefer to call it, "REF-POCALYPSE." That's nice, but it has nothing to do with how they've been playing the last few weeks. Driving home from the Patriots win ast night, the hosts on 98.5 The Sports Hub were talking about which top teams scared them as the Patriots' biggest competition, and they were talking about the Broncos, 49ers, Packers, and Giants ("even though they're inconsistent"). The Seahawks never came up. That's a mistake. This is a very good team right now. The Seahawks have not lost a game by more than a touchdown all season. It's not because they have a particularly bad record in close games; they've just played a lot of them. Seattle is 4-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less (including their win against Green Bay).

The Seahawks are now in the top five for DVOA in all three phases of the game, although it is interesting to note that their defense seems to be regressing at the same time that the offense and special teams have massively improved:

Seattle DVOA, Weeks 1-7 vs. 8-14
Weeks OFF
DVOA
Rk DEF
DVOA
Rk ST
DVOA
Rk TOT
DVOA
Weeks 1-7 -4.1% 20 -27.8% 2 1.9% 12 25.6%
Weeks 8-14 38.1% 2 -3.5% 13 12.0% 2 53.7%

It's interesting to note another team with virtually identical stats since Week 8:

New England DVOA, Weeks 1-7 vs. 8-14
Weeks OFF
DVOA
Rk DEF
DVOA
Rk ST
DVOA
Rk TOT
DVOA
Weeks 1-7 32.1% 1 3.9% 18 2.8% 10 31.0%
Weeks 8-14 40.5% 1 -3.7% 12 10.8% 3 55.0%

Something else both New England and Seattle have in common: both teams lost close games to Arizona during the Cardinals' four-game winning streak to start the year. That's a distant memory, isn't it? I received numerous tweets on Sunday asking me where the Cardinals stood among the worst offenses we've ever tracked. The surprising answer is: They don't.

That embarassment on Sunday dropped the Cardinals' offensive DVOA from -26.7% to -31.2%. They are now comfortably in last place. But that rating wouldn't make a list of the worst ten offenses we've ever tracked through Week 14. The Cardinals would rank 16th. The same thing is true if we break offensive DVOA down to passing and rushing. I don't have a spreadsheet that puts together how these splits develop week-by-week, so we'll have to compare the Cardinals to other teams over a full season instead of just 13 games, but... Arizona's passing DVOA of -32.1% doesn't even make the list of the worst 20 passing games in DVOA history. In fact, their running game is comparitively worse; the Cardinals and Raiders are basically tied at -20.1%, which would rank them 16th and 17th in DVOA history.

Remember, we changed DVOA this offseason to normalize every season to 0%, so the Cardinals do not miss the bottom of our lists simply because the current offensive environment of the NFL means that the worst offense now will get a lot more yardage than the worst offense 20 years ago. I'm not sure people realize just how bad the worst offenses of the last 20 years really were.

Twenty years ago, that Seattle franchise that walloped Arizona on Sunday had a team that couldn't even average 10 points per game. That team finished the year with offensive DVOA of -41.3% and passing DVOA of -65.3%. That's beyond pathetic, and way worse than what the Cardinals are doing this year, even after including this week's game. Between them, Stan Gelbaugh, Kelly Stouffer, and Dan McGwire had a completion rate of 48.3 percent, 67 sacks, and 23 picks with only nine touchdowns.

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That's the worst passing offense we've tracked, but not the worst offense overall. That would be the 2002 expansion Texans, when David Carr took 76 sacks and the running game averaged 3.2 yards per carry. The Cardinals can't come close to the 2005 49ers, who had rookie Alex Smith and his 1-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio. That team started Ken Dorsey three times and Cody Pickett twice. They can't come close to the 2004 Bears team that was stuck starting Chad Hutchinson, Craig Krenzel, and Jonathan Quinn after Rex Grossman got hurt early. The Cardinals don't even have the worst offensive DVOA in franchise history. In fact, they don't even have the worst offensive DVOA in Ken Whisenhunt history. The 2010 Cardinals finished the year with -35.6% DVOA. That team's best quarterback was a UFL refugee named Richard Bartel. That was the season that inspired the Cardinals to go out and get Kevin Kolb. And I know people like to say horrible things about Kolb, and he certainly hasn't turned into a viable NFL starter, but can we be honest about the fact that a healthy Kevin Kolb (passing DVOA: -24.3%) would be better than the alternatives of John Skelton (-35.7%) and Ryan Lindley (-64.9%)?

The Cardinals are very bad, but not historically bad, and the same goes for the Jets, Jaguars, and Chiefs.

One last note: Atlanta and Indianapolis are still teams that have won a bunch of close games with very easy schedules. I don't have anything new to add about their low DVOA ratings.

* * * * *

BEST DVOA EVER (OR AT LEAST SINCE 1991) WATCH

BEST TOTAL DVOA
THROUGH WEEK 14
x BEST OFFENSIVE DVOA
THROUGH WEEK 14
x BEST DEFENSIVE DVOA
THROUGH WEEK 14
x BEST ST DVOA
THROUGH WEEK 14
Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA
2007 NE 62.0% x 2007 NE 49.1% x 1991 PHI -40.0% x 2006 CHI 11.2%
1991 WAS 58.6% x 2010 NE 44.7% x 2002 TB -39.9% x 2011 CHI 10.8%
2004 PIT 45.1% x 1993 SF 39.4% x 2008 BAL -31.4% x 2001 PHI 10.7%
1998 DEN 43.4% x 1998 DEN 39.3% x 1995 SF -29.3% x 1994 CLE1 10.3%
1995 SF 41.9% x 2002 KC 38.2% x 2012 CHI -27.8% x 2012 BAL 10.3%
2012 NE 41.8% x 2004 IND 37.1% x 2008 PIT -27.0% x 2007 CHI 10.1%
2004 NE 40.9% x 1992 SF 35.7% x 2004 PIT -26.8% x 2000 MIA 9.9%
1999 STL 40.3% x 2012 NE 35.7% x 1991 NO -26.7% x 1998 DAL 9.8%
2002 TB 39.1% x 1995 DAL 33.7% x 1997 SF -26.6% x 1996 CAR 9.7%
2004 PHI 38.8% x 2004 KC 32.2% x 2004 BAL -24.8% x 2004 BUF 9.7%
2012 SEA 38.8% x 2003 KC 31.9% x 2006 CHI -24.7% x 1997 DAL 9.5%
1994 DAL 38.3% x 2011 NE 31.1% x 1998 MIA -24.4% x 2002 NO 9.2%



Yes, I know what you are saying to yourself at this point: "How the hell are the Chicago Bears still on this list?" Well, the Bears had a long way to drop. The Chicago defense "peaked" at -39.9% after Week 10. Their defensive rating has gotten worse each week since then, but they've still been above average. From Week 11 through Week 14, Chicago's defensive DVOA is -5.8%. There's a lot of opponent adjustment in that because the opponents have included two offenses in our top five, San Francisco and Seattle. Before the season, I definitely wasn't expecting to write things like "offenses in our top five include San Francisco and Seattle."

* * * * *

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 14 weeks of 2012, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

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OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

All stats pages should now be updated (or, at least, will be in the next few minutes) including snap counts and the FO Premium database.

Two general site notes: First, Any Given Sunday will appear tomorrow because of Rivers McCown's travel home. Second, please note that we're way behind on answering e-mails to the Football Outsiders general mailbag because both Rivers and I attended the game last night and were recovering/traveling home today. If you've e-mailed recently, have patience. Thanks!

TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
WEIGHTED
DVOA
RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
1 NE 41.8% 1 45.8% 1 10-3 35.7% 1 0.3% 14 6.5% 3
2 SEA 38.8% 4 43.9% 2 8-5 15.4% 5 -16.7% 2 6.6% 2
3 DEN 35.5% 2 37.9% 3 10-3 18.5% 3 -14.5% 5 2.4% 10
4 SF 34.8% 3 33.8% 4 9-3-1 20.1% 2 -15.9% 4 -1.2% 22
5 GB 21.9% 5 16.2% 7 9-4 15.5% 4 -5.3% 9 1.1% 11
6 CHI 20.6% 6 21.1% 6 8-5 -12.8% 26 -27.8% 1 5.7% 5
7 NYG 20.3% 8 21.8% 5 8-5 13.4% 6 -3.5% 10 3.4% 9
8 HOU 15.1% 7 13.6% 8 11-2 4.8% 12 -16.6% 3 -6.3% 31
9 BAL 12.0% 9 9.8% 10 9-4 3.7% 16 2.0% 19 10.3% 1
10 WAS 5.3% 11 9.2% 11 7-6 12.2% 8 3.3% 21 -3.5% 27
11 ATL 5.2% 10 0.6% 14 11-2 4.1% 13 -0.7% 13 0.5% 14
12 CIN 4.7% 12 13.2% 9 7-6 3.9% 14 2.7% 20 3.5% 8
13 DET 2.3% 14 2.4% 12 4-9 12.8% 7 5.9% 24 -4.5% 28
14 TB 1.1% 13 0.4% 15 6-7 7.4% 10 1.3% 18 -5.0% 29
15 PIT -0.5% 15 2.1% 13 7-6 -4.0% 20 -3.1% 11 0.5% 15
16 CAR -1.6% 18 -1.4% 16 4-9 5.5% 11 0.7% 16 -6.5% 32
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
WEIGHTED
DVOA
RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
17 DAL -2.1% 16 -3.3% 18 7-6 3.7% 15 4.2% 22 -1.6% 24
18 MIN -5.1% 19 -8.8% 24 7-6 -3.5% 18 5.1% 23 3.6% 7
19 STL -5.3% 20 -6.3% 19 6-6-1 -8.7% 23 -6.6% 7 -3.2% 26
20 MIA -5.9% 21 -8.3% 23 5-8 -9.8% 25 -2.9% 12 1.0% 12
21 BUF -6.5% 22 -2.0% 17 5-8 -2.8% 17 7.5% 26 3.9% 6
22 NO -8.1% 17 -7.0% 21 5-8 8.1% 9 15.7% 31 -0.4% 17
23 SD -8.2% 23 -7.2% 22 5-8 -8.4% 22 0.6% 15 0.9% 13
24 NYJ -8.9% 25 -10.8% 25 6-7 -15.4% 27 -6.5% 8 0.1% 16
25 CLE -10.3% 26 -6.5% 20 5-8 -15.5% 28 1.2% 17 6.3% 4
26 PHI -18.2% 27 -22.1% 27 4-9 -9.8% 24 7.2% 25 -1.2% 21
27 ARI -18.5% 24 -24.6% 28 4-9 -31.2% 32 -13.6% 6 -0.9% 18
28 IND -20.1% 28 -19.0% 26 9-4 -3.7% 19 15.4% 30 -1.0% 20
29 TEN -29.1% 29 -27.1% 29 4-9 -17.9% 29 9.7% 27 -1.4% 23
30 OAK -31.9% 31 -31.7% 30 3-10 -8.1% 21 18.0% 32 -5.8% 30
31 JAC -34.8% 30 -32.7% 31 2-11 -20.9% 30 13.1% 28 -0.9% 19
32 KC -39.7% 32 -35.6% 32 2-11 -23.0% 31 13.7% 29 -3.1% 25
  • NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.
  • ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.
  • PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
  • FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
  • VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).



TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
W-L NON-ADJ
TOT VOA
ESTIM.
WINS
RANK PAST
SCHED
RANK FUTURE
SCHED
RANK VAR. RANK
1 NE 41.8% 10-3 43.4% 11.8 1 -0.6% 18 -2.0% 18 10.6% 10
2 SEA 38.8% 8-5 29.3% 10.5 4 4.3% 6 7.7% 10 14.8% 22
3 DEN 35.5% 10-3 35.0% 11.7 2 -4.8% 27 -12.7% 27 7.1% 7
4 SF 34.8% 9-3-1 31.7% 10.6 3 3.1% 9 20.7% 1 22.8% 31
5 GB 21.9% 9-4 14.6% 9.6 5 3.3% 8 -4.5% 23 11.3% 12
6 CHI 20.6% 8-5 17.9% 9.1 6 0.7% 14 1.9% 13 13.1% 19
7 NYG 20.3% 8-5 19.1% 8.2 7 2.3% 11 -0.3% 15 25.9% 32
8 HOU 15.1% 11-2 21.2% 7.5 9 -1.1% 20 -15.1% 30 12.3% 17
9 BAL 12.0% 9-4 16.0% 7.7 8 -4.2% 25 20.2% 2 16.5% 26
10 WAS 5.3% 7-6 7.6% 7.2 10 1.8% 13 -10.2% 26 11.3% 13
11 ATL 5.2% 11-2 12.6% 7.1 11 -7.4% 32 7.9% 9 12.0% 14
12 CIN 4.7% 7-6 11.4% 6.6 13 -5.4% 29 -2.2% 19 17.5% 27
13 DET 2.3% 4-9 -0.6% 6.4 15 2.7% 10 2.4% 11 5.5% 4
14 TB 1.1% 6-7 7.3% 7.0 12 -3.9% 24 -2.7% 21 6.2% 5
15 PIT -0.5% 7-6 3.0% 6.2 18 -4.3% 26 -2.5% 20 19.2% 30
16 CAR -1.6% 4-9 -2.5% 6.3 17 5.0% 5 -16.1% 31 12.1% 16
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
W-L NON-ADJ
TOT VOA
ESTIM.
WINS
RANK PAST
SCHED
RANK FUTURE
SCHED
RANK VAR. RANK
17 DAL -2.1% 7-6 -5.3% 6.5 14 6.2% 3 -1.1% 17 7.2% 8
18 MIN -5.1% 7-6 -4.9% 6.1 19 3.5% 7 10.6% 6 5.1% 1
19 STL -5.3% 6-6-1 -10.3% 6.0 20 10.9% 1 11.6% 5 6.8% 6
20 MIA -5.9% 5-8 -7.6% 6.3 16 0.5% 15 0.2% 14 16.4% 25
21 BUF -6.5% 5-8 -8.1% 5.6 23 -3.0% 22 8.0% 8 15.6% 24
22 NO -8.1% 5-8 -7.3% 4.9 25 2.3% 12 -0.9% 16 10.8% 11
23 SD -8.2% 5-8 -3.9% 5.0 24 -5.0% 28 -14.1% 28 5.5% 3
24 NYJ -8.9% 6-7 -10.3% 5.8 21 5.7% 4 -14.6% 29 17.9% 29
25 CLE -10.3% 5-8 1.0% 5.7 22 -5.7% 30 13.4% 4 13.9% 21
26 PHI -18.2% 4-9 -20.7% 4.2 27 0.2% 16 10.1% 7 12.1% 15
27 ARI -18.5% 4-9 -26.8% 3.7 28 9.7% 2 19.3% 3 17.5% 28
28 IND -20.1% 9-4 -10.9% 4.6 26 -6.0% 31 -3.2% 22 8.3% 9
29 TEN -29.1% 4-9 -28.9% 2.3 30 -0.5% 17 -7.3% 25 15.4% 23
30 OAK -31.9% 3-10 -28.1% 2.5 29 -1.0% 19 -16.5% 32 13.9% 20
31 JAC -34.8% 2-11 -31.7% 1.6 32 -3.2% 23 2.3% 12 5.4% 2
32 KC -39.7% 2-11 -43.8% 1.8 31 -1.3% 21 -5.5% 24 12.7% 18

Comments

282 comments, Last at 18 Dec 2012, 8:19am

1 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

I still think this year's offensive ratings are broken, I just don't regard San Francisco and Seattle's offenses as being that great. Is it just me taking too long to realign with reality or is there a statistical quirk somewhere?

4 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

Yeah I basically agree. I think it might be that we're underating the NFC West defenses as there does seem to be a quite a difference between the passing voa and dvoa.

5 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

The Seahawks, 49ers, and Patriots have all played difficult schedules of opposing defenses, which is why the Seahawks and 49ers are higher than you expect and the Patriots are so far ahead of everybody else.

48 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

not so sure Aaron.
SF is averaging 6 yards/play and is 3rd in VOA. Denver gets passed by them on opponent adjustments. They are 4th in EPA/P and 3rd in success rate (from Burkes' site this should be almost exactly VOA).

They don't run many plays (dead last in the NFL) but they don't turn the ball over much either (2nd to last). They are 6th in WPA which is pretty good considering the total number of plays is lower.

My conclusion is the SF has an efficient, if somewhat volatile and plodding offense, and that can't be waved away by opponents adjustments!

Seattle on the other hand... They are only above average in WPA (9th) so I guess they are kinda clutch, but are middle-of-the-pack by every other metric. In that case opponent adjustment bumps them to 5, but in the middle of a pack of 5 teams.

Both teams clearly benefitted from "solving" the Bears #1 pass defense (which may not be repeatable)

56 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

Yeah, but you're talking about 2 running teams that "solved" the Bears #1 pass defense. Sooooo....given that DVOA likes teams that get short, consistent gains (Eagles team of several seasons ago) instead of "big play" offenses because those shot plays are low percentage, it makes sense SF and Seattle are ranked high.

178 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

...given that DVOA likes teams that get short, consistent gains (Eagles team of several seasons ago) instead of "big play" offenses because those shot plays are low percentage....

Wrong. This has been refuted so many times that I don't want to do it again. Does anyone else have the energy?

181 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

I'll give it a whirl:

The more accurate statement would be that DVOA actually does love big plays, but it doesn't love teams that have a few big plays mixed with a lot of unsuccessful plays ("boom or bust").

In other words if offense A has 2 plays that gain no yards, but they get an 80 yard touchdown pass on 3rd down, they'll get a lower rating than offense B, which runs 2 plays that gain 5 yards each, then throws a 70 yard TD pass. Offense B is clearly more "efficient", because they ran two successful plays instead of two unsuccessful plays before their "big play".

That's my understanding of it, anyway. Corrections are welcome.

204 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

That's conceptually right, but the math might not work out there: a 40+ yard pass on 3rd and 10 is way above the average, and two 0-yard gains on 1st and 10 and 2nd and 10 aren't *that* much below the average. Compared to the second team, where the last gain is on 1st and 10, and a 40+ yard pass on 1st and 10 might not be as far above the average as a 40+ yard pass on 3rd and 10 is.

But basically the simple examples like this are always that: too simple. If you have a team that goes incomplete, incomplete, 40+ yard TD *every series*, c'mon. That team will be scoring 50+ points per game, and have the highest DVOA ever. This is silly.

What people are *actually* thinking about are two teams, one of which (team A) has a drive which goes 30 yards, and punts, then a drive that goes 50 yards for a TD, compared to a team (team B) that goes 3-and-out, and punts, then goes 80 yards in 3 plays for a TD. Something like that.

The reason why DVOA would think the first team is 'better' is because it is. Why? Because the one thing I didn't add is that at the end of those two series, the score for team A's game is 7-0, and the score for team B's game is 7-3. Because team B's opponent scored a field goal because they had a short field. Is that the defense's fault? Hell no: they both have the same defense. Team A's opponent started out inside the 20: an 'average' defense can give the ball back to the offense around midfield at that point. Team B's opponent started out at their own 40. An average defense will probably give up a field goal at that point. (OK, tweak things a bit if you want, but the idea still stands).

It's not even about 'consistency', or 'efficiency', or any of that. It's much simpler. Every yard matters. Every yard that an offense gains is potentially a yard that their defense does not have to defend. And unless you score every drive (which, again, would make you the best offense ever), you better be gaining yards every drive, and very likely every play.

239 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

But that example isn't fair either. Team A got the ball at midfield for their second drive, while Team B got it at their own 20. Team B's second drive was 30 yards longer. If Team A also got the ball at the 20 on their second drive and went 50 yards and kicked a field goal, are they still a better offense?

252 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

Team A got the ball at midfield for their second drive because of what they did on the first drive!

Their first drive, team A gained 30 yards. Then they punted. Team B gained no yards. Then they punted. But those two drives weren't equal. Those 30 yards don't vanish: assuming equal special teams/defenses, those 30 yards will come back to the offense on the next drive. That's the point.

The example assumed that they got the ball back 30 yards forward (so the result of the punt/other team's drive/punt was zero yards) which is obviously optimistic, but in that case the other team got the ball inside the 20, so it's probably not that optimistic. You might have to adjust it a little and say that the first drive goes 30 yards, the second drive goes 60 yards, or something like that. But it's not by much.

If Team A also got the ball at the 20 on their second drive and went 50 yards and kicked a field goal, are they still a better offense?

If Team A got the ball at the 20 on their second drive, after giving the opportunity to pin the other team inside the 20, their defense or special teams are below average.

So yes, the offense is still better. An offense can't be rated by points scored, because the offense isn't solely responsible for points scored. Defense gives the offense the ball at the other team's 1, and they score: is the offense great, or the defense? Obviously the defense. The same argument applies with field position. It's not Team A's offense's fault that the defense/special teams are below average.

Assume Team A's opponent scores after being inside the 20 - say, at the 10. Then Team A gets the ball at the 20, and drives, and scores a field goal. They're down 7-3 now. But look at what happened: the offense has gained 80 yards on 2 drives, and the defense has given up 90 in one. Whose fault is it that they're losing?

Compare that to team B, where in 2 drives, the offense has gained 80 yards in 2 drives, and the defense gives up 30 in one (say the other team drives from their own 40 to team B's 30). The defense for team B is clearly significantly better than the defense for team A. That's the reason why Team A is losing 7-3, and team B is winning 7-3. Not the offense. The defense for Team A has given up three times the yards/drive.

276 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

In reply to by Nick Wells (not verified)

Seattle's offense just scored back to back 50+ games which has happened 3 times in NFL history. Don't discount them due to the opponents they faced. Green Bay has faced back to back below average opponents how many times in NFL history?

How you can doubt Seattle's offense is beyond me. They started out poorly because Carroll put training wheels on Wilson, but the kid has grasped the offense at a fantastic rate. Kid's got a great work ethic. They've got Lynch, Rice and Golden Tate has vastly improved. They've got two great TE's.

I can only assume the doubt comes from simple east coast bias. Seattle simply doesn't have credibility. But the DVOA says otherwise and the historical offensive explosion concurs and when you look at the stars on that team, just waiting for a Russell Wilson to come along, you gotta admit, DVOA might be onto something.

10 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

I agree. Something just isn't passing the smell test. I think opponent adjustments are making things REALLY swingy in this later portion of the season as some teams (Chicago, Arizona) who have high defensive rankings for the season have dropped off in recent weeks, and not just their defenses but their units as a whole. New England puts up a 59 burger on Indianapolis, but because they're a low-ranked defense (and turned it over so many times), it didn't affect them too much. Seattle puts up a 58 burger on Arizona (after an admittedly strong comeback in Chicago) and they are suddenly the 2nd-best team in the league., even though Arizona turned the ball over an absurd number of times. It's just weird.

21 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

I suspect DVOA likes the way the Seahawks and 9ers prefer to close out games. "Ok we're up by 4, time to rip off 9 yard chunks in the run game until it's over." That's a lot of pretty valuable plays that aren't going to make any highlight package. DVOA counts them, Chris Berman doesn't.

24 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

Seattle's offense is clearly ranked too high because the refs gave them a victory that they didn't earn. The smell test is way better than this. Teh saehwkz dont desserev to go th thq playffos and thell loose when thye gt thrr.

64 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

(A) Lay off the gin.

(B) The Seahawks/Packers game is an easy target for people who want to complain about the replacement refs without having to think too much, but the regular refs screw up a lot too. There have been many games this season decided by officiating mistakes, including mistakes made by the supposedly much better regular refs.

In a sense, it is really unfortunate that Seattle won that game -- not because they didn't deserve it (which is debatable), but because it put more pressure on the NFL to cave in on the ref situation without accomplishing any true reforms. The ref's union successfully defended the varying levels of (in)competence of the regular refs, while insulating them from any accountability whatsoever.

95 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

It wasn't an ad hominem attack, it was an observation. However, I should have wrote that it is specifically the last play of the Seahawks/Packers game that is the easy target, as opposed to the Seahawks/Packers game overall. The greater point remains.

But since you mentioned "ad hominem", I will take this opportunity to point out that the gin comment in my earlier post was intended to be a lighthearted poke at the spelling of the previous post. No offense intended -- and if anyone was offended, I apologize.

115 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

I wasn't offended at all. No worries. My comment was supposed to be tongue-in-cheek anyway,but I'm not sure it came through very well. :-)

212 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

In case you didn't realize, the bad spelling was intentional... it was a comment based on this section of the article :

"To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

=team= is clearly ranked =too high/too low= because =reason unrelated to DVOA=. =subjective ranking system= is way better than this. =unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling="

98 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

I'm getting sick of the "Fail Mary" B.S. The fact is that the way the rules are written that call was correctly decided. Cold Hard Football Facts went over it a few weeks back. The replacement refs got that call right.

Bitch about the officiating if you wish. There were some other terrible calls in that game. The last play was not one of them.

105 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

Well, about 3% of the football watching nation agree with your OR cold football hard cheese or whatever the site is. People know a rotting corpse when they smell one. People know full well who had the ball, and esoteric technicalities in the rule book, or holes therein, don't alter the fact the that the defender had the ball and pulled it to his chest before the offensive guy even touched it. No one cares who was on the ground or off the ground or whatever. The simple fact is one referee called it an INT another called it a TD because the receiver EVENTUALLY was touching a part of the ball by the time he sidled up to see what was going on. EVERYBODY who watched that play who has watched more than three quarters of football know that was a TERRIBLE call. A conspiracy theory fringe percentage doesn't alter that reality.

143 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

Objective Seattle resident here with no dog in this race: Defender had it first, therefore not simultaneous. When they hit the ground it might have been equal, and when they came up (or parted) it was Tate. But the defender had superior body position and the WR had to reach in to get the ball. It's hard to conclude (in slo-mo replay) that that's simultaneous, which is what was called. It could have gone either way, but most people--and not just casual fans/unwashed masses--thoght it was called wrong. And the day I take CHFF's word for ANYthing is the day the Bengals go on a spending spree AND Matt Millen gets a bust in Canton purely for his GM work. CHFF fills a niche, but it's only pretend-analytical. It's primarily attitude/humor/entertainment.

Oh, almost forgot Tate's blatant push-off before the jump ball. Regardless of what you think of the catch, there is no, no, no possible way you can say that push was legal. Ergo, the catch (even if it happened as ruled) should have been nullified.

144 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

Fact: golden Tate touched th ball first. It's indisputable, look at a freeze frame. You don't need 2hands on the ball for "control". Tate has ball first, Jennings then grabs with two hands while Tate maintains his original hand on the ball the entire time. You can argue that Jennings "helped" him maintain control, but the fact his Tate touches the ball first, maintains hand on ball, touches ground first wi both feet, goes to ground, ball never leaves his original hand. TOUCHDOWN. Period.

PI on Hail Marys is NEVER called. You could also argue that another Seahawks receiver was interfered with, so shut up about that.

153 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

You'd be right, except for one thing -- you're wrong. The defender did not have it first. Tate stopped the momentum of the ball with his left hand (btw, he is left handed) a millisecond before Jennings grabs the ball with both hands -- and the ball remained in Tate's hand throughout the entire process of the catch. Tate did not "reach in to get the ball" after Jennings pulled the ball into his chest -- Tate already had the ball in his hand when Jennings pulled the ball and Tate's arm into his chest. There was never any point at which control of the ball was not shared by both Tate and Jennings.

If you don't believe me, check out this video. (Scroll down the page to the 2nd Youtube video.)

Part of the reason for the mass hysteria involving that call is that the networks never showed all the camera angles, therefore you have come to your conclusion based on incomplete information, as did Tirico and Gruden.

Now, let's pretend for a moment that I am a complete homer, and my analysis is wrong. The video I linked is the camera angle that most closely approximates the view of the ref who signaled the TD. It was his judgment that there was simultaneous possession. It was also Tirico's judgment at the moment the play happened, as is obvious from the broadcast. Note: There is nothing in the rule about simultaneous possession regarding proximity to chest, body position, number of hands, or percentage of control. Tate had joint control of the ball from the very beginning of the catch, both in the video and in the judgment of the replacement ref on the field. And this was not contradicted by the regular NFL official in the booth.

If you want to make your case about OPI, I won't quibble, but you are wrong about the catch. More specifically, you are wrong about the premises on which your conclusion about the catch is based. You don't get to make up your own criteria ("body position") to determine what the NFL rule says or means.

183 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

1) Yes, you can control a ball with one hand.
2) You can't prove that Tate controlled the ball with one hand, especially when that hand was trapped between the ball and the defender's body while the defender also controlled the ball.
3) Neither statement matters now except as fodder to continue arguing.

221 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

You both missed my point and made it for me. By virtue of stopping the momentum of the ball, and the ball remaining in place in his hand long enough for Jennings to grab it, Tate demonstrated some control of the ball. I never said Jennings didn't have any control of the ball, it's quite obvious he did.

It doesn't matter that in every other angle, there isn't clear video evidence that Tate had shared control of the ball -- the angle that is roughly the same as where the official was on the field shows enough evidence to make the simultaneous possession ruling not only justifiable, but reasonable, even if you don't think it was correct.

Interestingly, your statement that "the defender also controlled the ball" is tacit admission that Tate also controlled the ball.

Regarding argument fodder, please note that my posts and other like posts are in response to people insisting that the call was wrong, and complaining about how the season has gone as a result of it.

154 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

Jeez, this crap again? If it was such an egregious call (and only 3% are on one side of the issue), then how the hell does it still cause arguments like the one you just re-started? The entire 4th quarter of that game was an atrocity by the refs. But the last play was simply an incredibly close play that was as gray as it gets, and on which it's impossible to find agreement. There is literally a worse call in EVERY F'ING GAME of EVERY F'ING WEEK.

186 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

I agree. I wish this discussion would end.. I have watched worse calls all season long that was not grey, but just a horrible call. The TD argument as we can see can go either way, and only homerism call it 100% either way. It was an iffy call no matter what and that 2nd half was full of horrible calls. There are games each week that are blown by bad calls.

223 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

"The TD argument as we can see can go either way, and only homerism call it 100% either way. It was an iffy call no matter what and that 2nd half was full of horrible calls. There are games each week that are blown by bad calls."

If more people thought this way, there would be less discussion.

225 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

"Well, about 3% of the football watching nation agree with your OR cold football hard cheese or whatever the site is."

Becasue we all know that the best way to determine wether a callw as correct or not is the majority of the football-watching public, un-biased, informed savants taht they all are...

"don't alter the fact the that the defender had the ball and pulled it to his chest before the offensive guy even touched it."

And that is just either a bold-faced lie or proff that you haven't actually watched the play in question, since that is an untenable statement give that both players touched the ball simultaneously.

But of course, I wouldn't expect any less...

- Alvaro

Phil Simms is to analysts what Ryan Leaf is to NFL QBs

227 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

I love how everyone looks at that one play from the Green Bay vs Seattle game, and ignores the rest of the horrible officiating that took place in that game. What about the phantom PI call on Seattle during Green Bay's final scoring drive. If the ref's call that one right (or in this case, don't call it because it was clearly NOT a PI) then Green Bay is 4th and long and punts the ball, which means they dont get the 7, which means Seattle wins the game anyway. If you are going to look at bad calls in a game.. look at them all, then quit bitching and get over it. Seattle won, Green Bay lost, move on.

257 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

Thank you! Had Chancellor not be called for that phantom PI, Green Bay would not have scored a TD on that drive.

166 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

In reply to by robbbbbb (not verified)

I don't want to belabor this but "Cold Hard Football Facts" clearly doesn't understand the rule. It was an interception because: 1. Jennings controlled the ball before Tate did (regardless of whether Tate got a hand on the ball first); and 2. Jennings did not lose control after that point. Although they do attempt to argue that #1 is incorrect, the argument is lost in a whole lot of mumbo jumbo about other things. Which player touched the ball first is irrelevant. Which player landed first is irrelevant. Anything that happened after both players were on the ground is irrelevant.

(For the record, longtime Seahawks fan living in Wisconsin.)

170 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

I agree with everything you say really. The only thing I'd add is that it wasn't clear immediately (on first viewing at full speed) who had the ball, and the only thing that was clear was the simulataneous possession at the end of the play. Once it was rule (understandably, but on reflection incorrectly) there was never enough on replay to overturn it by the standards required for replay, despite it being fairly clear what happened.

213 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

So here's a picture of Jennings reaching into Tate's possetion and getting pitched forward for his trouble

Jennings didn't control shit, or if he did he chose to push the ball into Tate's chest (Thanks!). Jennings also released and restablished his grip on the ball as they both lay on the ground, and immediately after *that* is when the official signaled for a TD.

Funny thing is, Tate's been making insane plays like that all year. Outside of the game he's playing in, no one's talking about him.

242 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

I thought people were saying that hit Tate's hand first. That clearly hit Jennings right hand before it touched Tate's. Also the picture clearly shows Tate trying to reach around Jennings not the other way around. Notice how Tate only had 1 hand on the ball and the other on Jennings wrist while Jennings had both hands on the ball and his arm in between Tate and the ball. Everything about that play screams interception.

I think people get confused by what the NFL said because they said it was correctly not overturn. Never said anything about the initial call(Besides that Offensive PI should of been called).

I agree there were worse calls in the game. On that final drive there were 2 HORRIBLE calls. The ball had already been intercepted but didn't count because of a disgustingly wrong roughing the passer. The worst call of all happened to be that Defensive PI called on Shields after he was shoved to the ground by Sidney Rice. That may be the worst call I've seen all year.

244 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

Tate bends Jennings into him. Jennings just follows the ball. Look at any picture of the play from the side, where Jennings feet are in the picture give and indication of where he jumped up.

And as Mike "GTFO" Pereira is fond of saying, that's a bang-bang play. The appearance is simultanious real-time, the burden is on the defensive player to seperate the runner from possession. This defender, if he controlled the ball, pushed its center of mass to the center of mass of the runner before twisting under the ball, on the ground, after it was over. What funny, is in the youtube videos of the catch, it doesn't even help Jennings maintain possession, he has to adjust his grip, and it's immediately after he does that the official makes the call. On every element he fails to demonstrate any control of the ball.

Now if you want to argue that Jennings is an idiot and drove the ball into Tate before trying to seperate it, thus tricking us all, fine. I prefer to think that Jennings is a colossal pussy perfectly representative of Cheese Nation and was defeated by Tate's left hand, because Tate didn't feel like showing off.

If everything screamed interception, the NFL wouldn't have sent the Packers a letter of "get over it."

Haha, roughing the passer. HAHAHAHAHAHA, in this NFL? Oh man, with the delicate Mr. Rodgers? Yeah, he's NEVER benefited from a ticky tack roughing call. While you're whining about that are you going to organize a letter writing campaign to credit the Seahawks Bobby Wagner with another pick, take up a collection for Earl Thomas? I'll totally wait to see the result. Seriously, though, that was the best part of your response. I'm in tears. Roughing the passer, oh man. Awesome.

But I want you to know, I don't even feel bad that the replacements let the Packers hold all they wanted in the second half. I really don't. Can you imagine the situation they were put in? If they let Rodgers get killed on national TV, they'd have to live their lives looking over their shoulders. Pushing their car down the block every morning, closing their eyes while starting it up, then waving to the wife and kids to pile in because it was all-clear today; that's no way to live life.

258 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

"Tate bends Jennings into him. Jennings just follows the ball."
Because Jennings is holding the ball, and Tate is holding Jennings.

"The appearance is simultanious real-time, the burden is on the defensive player to seperate the runner from possession."
This is just wrong. As the rulebook says, it's not simultaneous if the defender has possession before the receiver. Jennings establishes the beginnings of control before Tate even touches it, you can see that he elevates higher.

"I prefer to think that Jennings is a colossal pussy perfectly representative of Cheese Nation"
Completely uncalled-for and immature, but not surprising given everything else you've said in this thread.

"If everything screamed interception, the NFL wouldn't have sent the Packers a letter of "get over it."
Yes, of course they would've. It's the NFL, and they didn't want to admit that the replacements screwed up.

Not even going to bother with the drivel that makes up the last two paragraphs.

-----

“Treat a man as he is, and he will remain as he is. Treat a man as he could be, and he will become what he should be.”

243 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

Lol.

This is an epic trolling.

Some people just can't grasp the subtleties of when simultaneous possession occurs, and they're usually Seahawk fans.
As a Packer fan I have to say : I don't care. Not one bit. You didn't earn it, but you can have it anyway. We'll see you at Lambeau and it'll end the same way it did the last time the Seahawks came to town for a playoff game.

102 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

Are you conflating the egregiously bad call by a person who had no business being on a an NFL field, making a CONTRIBUTORY assessment versus a MITIGATING assessment of the action of a play? There's a HUGE difference between calling a clear interception "dual possession", which happens MAYBE about twice a year and the endless "was the knee down", "did the ball come out", "was the hit high or late" type calls? People need to realize the scope of that call in Seattle was different to a huge degree than many of the calls which go on weekly in the NFL. Guys like Steve Young don't look like their parents just died in a car crash when a bang-bang play that happens on almost every down may have been screwed up by a ref. That call was so far beyond terrible that to conflate it with the average bang-bang screw up is an injustice.

The refs blow calls all the time. I'm not saying they don't. I HATE the fact that the game is pretty much in the hands of the refs with so many technically driven rules that get unevenly applied. But that Seattle call was SO terrible as to defy description. It's NOT an average run of the mill "oh well" type call that cuts both ways over time. That was a tearing of a victory from the Packers and handing it to the Seahawks by someone who didn't know what he was doing. That's MUCH different than a guy who DOES know what he is doing missing what happened as the play passes by in real time (and is not correctable by video evidence). That was a historically terrible call by an idiot.

107 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

Use your google machine and look for the NFL letter which I'll summerize for you.

"Yeah, there was an OPI which should have been called, but calls get missed. The rest of the play was properly officiated."

No "Dear Packers, shit happens, sorry." they got "Dear everyone, shit happens, tie goes to the runner, you'll get over it."

So yeah, go cry into your pillow. You could try kicking your little feet while you do it, some find it cathartic.

113 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

Oh, you got me. "The NFL said...." as if anybody with an IQ above their shoe size couldn't see how the NFL would spin the situation. They can SAY one thing, but ACTIONS speak LOUDER than words - the lock out ended TWO DAYS after that atrocious call. Talk is cheap, reality is defined by actions.

The SHOCK of people who have PLAYED THE DAMN GAME after that call tells it all. People who have played the game, reported on the game, watched the game, etc etc etc KNOW that was a terrible call. Catharsis has come and gone, and the Packers have overcome the kick in the nuts call, reducing their playoff chances by 20% for most of the year only to climb back to the 90+% chance they should have enjoyed all the while. But for a lunatic fringe to deny what actually happened isn't going to just float an by without comment. The "deniers" started it, after all.

119 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

I see you have the argumentation ability of a 4 year old. I am not a 4 year old. Our "discussion" is at an end. Only a fool argues with a fool.

146 Re: Week 14 DVOA Ratings

The answer is he didn't. It's an absolute FACT that it was indeed a catch. Former players, reporters, etc made a big deal about it because of the previous weeks and ineptitude of the replacement refs. It was a culmination of things, and they were looking for a reason to complain to push the NFL to fixit, and they succeeded. Doesn't mean they are right. You can argue that the rules are dumb or that there should be a rule that "the player that SEEMS to have MORE possession gets the catch", but if you were to want such a generic rule like that you would be an idiot.