Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Week 7 DVOA Ratings
Week 7 DVOA Ratings
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

by Aaron Schatz

Indianapolis knocked Denver out of the ranks of the unbeaten on Sunday night, but not out of the top spot in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings. The Colts' big win did move them up from fifth to third, where they now trail only the Broncos and Seahawks and have passed the NFL's last remaining unbeaten team, the Kansas City Chiefs.

A narrow victory over Houston (currently ranked a miserable 30th in DVOA) drops Kansas City's DVOA rating from 25.6% to 23.2%. Beware of power rankings which simply regurgitate a list in order of wins and losses: Kansas City has not been the best team in the NFL in 2013. The most important issue is that the Chiefs have played the league's easiest schedule, even if we remove all games that any teams have played against Jacksonville. It doesn't get much harder the next two weeks, with games against Cleveland (25th) and Buffalo (17th), both of which are now playing with backup quarterbacks. However, most of Kansas City's division schedule is set up after their bye in Week 10, which means both games against the Broncos and both games against the Chargers (13th in DVOA). They also have a game with Indianapolis in Week 16 which could be hugely important for playoff seeding.

However, while the Chiefs may not be the best team in the league, they may be the most consistent. They rank first in variance, including third on offense and seventh on defense.

Kansas City's ranking is one of the few places where the current DVOA ratings deviate significantly from win-loss records. Another team that stands out is Carolina, which has climbed to sixth overall at 3-3. However, with the exception of the Panthers, every team with a winning record is better than every team at .500 or worse except for two teams right in the middle of the ratings: Atlanta 15th at 2-4 and the Jets 16th at 4-3.


Denver's loss knocks them out of the top ten teams in DVOA history. Jacksonville is still plumbing the depths of the historical DVOA ratings, but the Jaguars no longer rank as the worst team ever because the 2005 San Francisco 49ers had one of the worst games of all-time in Week 7, losing to Washington 52-17. Yes, the quarterback of that worst team ever was in fact the same man who currently quarterbacks the last undefeated team of 2013.

Meanwhile, the current Washington team had another lousy week on special teams. Washington had 26.6 net yards per punt, with one of those returned for a touchdown by Devin Hester, and just one touchback on eight kickoffs, which just won't cut it with the kickoff line at the 35.

Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA
2007 NE 69.1% x 2007 NE 48.0% x 2005 SF -75.5% x 2005 SF -49.7% x 2010 SD -21.1%
1991 WAS 61.8% x 1999 WAS 45.2% x 2013 JAC -63.4% x 1992 SEA -47.7% x 2013 WAS -18.3%
1996 GB 54.0% x 2000 STL 44.0% x 2008 KC -60.4% x 2013 JAC -44.9% x 2008 MIN -17.6%
1994 DAL 51.8% x 2013 DEN 41.9% x 2000 CIN -58.4% x 2004 MIA -43.5% x 1997 STL -16.2%
1999 STL 50.7% x 1998 DEN 41.2% x 1993 TB -58.0% x 2002 HOU -42.6% x 1999 CIN -15.1%
2007 IND 47.6% x 2002 KC 39.2% x 2009 DET -57.4% x 2010 CAR -42.0% x 1996 ARI -14.7%
1990 CHI 46.8% x 2007 IND 36.9% x 2002 CIN -56.1% x 1996 STL -42.0% x 2000 CIN -14.5%
1998 DEN 45.0% x 1992 SF 35.3% x 1991 IND -54.5% x 1991 NE -40.4% x 1995 PHI -14.0%
1997 DEN 43.8% x 1995 DAL 34.5% x 2005 HOU -52.5% x 1993 TB -40.3% x 2006 ARI -12.9%
1991 NO 42.0% x 1997 DEN 33.7% x 1996 STL -52.5% x 2009 OAK -40.1% x 1994 HOIL -12.8%
2013 DEN 40.9% x 2004 IND 32.7% x 2009 OAK -51.9% x 1991 PHI -39.5% x 2005 PHI -12.8%
1992 PHI 40.8% x 2011 NE 32.6% x 1999 CLE -51.4% x 2007 SF -39.1% x 1990 DEN -12.5%

Apologies for the shortened commentary this week; my hard drive died on Thursday and I've been limping along on my wife's computer with limited access to files until I can get everything fixed/replaced and then restore my backup.

* * * * *

During the 2013 season, we'll be partnering with EA Sports to bring special Football Outsiders-branded items to Madden 25 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in standard stats. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats, including DYAR, Defeats, and our game charting coverage stats for cornerbacks. We'll announce the players each Tuesday in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend, beginning Friday night.

The Football Outsiders stars for Week 7 are:

  • FB Stanley Havili, IND: TD reception and forced fumble on special teams.
  • WR Jeremy Kerley, NYJ: 97 yards and a touchdown with six third-down conversions.
  • LT Trent Williams, WAS: Washington had 5.5 yards on left-side runs (not including scrambles) and allowed only one sack.
  • LB Lavonte David, TB: Six defeats including three TFL.
  • LB Lawrence Timmons, PIT: 13 tackles for an average gain of just 3.2 yards.

Other players we considered this week who didn't make the cut: Aaron Rodgers, Mike Brown, Clint Boling, Robert Mathis, Sean Lee, Vontae Davis, Earl Thomas, and Mike Mitchell.

* * * * *

All 2013 stat pages are now updated or will be updated in the next few minutes, including snap counts, playoff odds, and the FO Premium database.

* * * * *

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through seven weeks of 2013, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

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OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for strength of schedule and to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season.

Because it is early in the season, opponent adjustments are only at 70 percent strength; they will increase 10 percent every week through Week 10. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason projection with current DVOA to get a more accurate forecast of how a team will play the rest of the season. Right now, the preseason projection makes up nine percent of DAVE (19 percent for teams with only six games played).

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

1 DEN 40.9% 1 38.7% 1 6-1 41.9% 1 7.9% 26 6.8% 3
2 SEA 34.4% 2 32.7% 2 6-1 8.3% 12 -22.3% 1 3.8% 10
3 IND 26.2% 5 23.3% 3 5-2 17.0% 5 -4.6% 11 4.6% 8
4 KC 23.2% 3 19.6% 6 7-0 -3.3% 18 -19.3% 2 7.3% 2
5 GB 22.5% 7 22.9% 4 4-2 26.2% 2 1.6% 18 -2.1% 26
6 CAR 20.4% 8 19.6% 5 3-3 6.3% 14 -14.3% 3 -0.2% 20
7 NO 19.0% 4 16.9% 7 5-1 15.5% 6 -1.9% 16 1.7% 14
8 CHI 17.7% 6 16.1% 9 4-3 14.5% 7 1.0% 17 4.2% 9
9 DAL 16.2% 11 14.4% 10 4-3 7.1% 13 -2.8% 14 6.3% 4
10 SF 16.1% 10 16.6% 8 5-2 10.1% 9 -4.5% 12 1.5% 15
11 CIN 13.2% 9 12.5% 11 5-2 2.6% 15 -7.6% 7 3.0% 12
12 NE 9.7% 13 10.8% 12 5-2 -4.7% 19 -7.1% 8 7.3% 1
13 SD 3.2% 16 2.5% 13 4-3 25.8% 3 21.6% 32 -1.0% 24
14 DET 2.6% 12 2.2% 14 4-3 9.8% 10 6.3% 24 -0.9% 23
15 ATL 0.1% 19 0.4% 15 2-4 17.3% 4 16.2% 30 -0.9% 22
16 NYJ -0.6% 18 -1.3% 16 4-3 -18.4% 30 -12.8% 4 5.1% 7
17 BUF -1.0% 14 -2.3% 17 3-4 -7.4% 21 -9.4% 6 -3.0% 27
18 PIT -3.7% 21 -2.9% 18 2-4 -0.3% 16 4.5% 22 1.2% 16
19 ARI -4.2% 17 -4.3% 19 3-4 -15.1% 23 -10.0% 5 0.9% 19
20 PHI -4.6% 15 -4.4% 20 3-4 14.2% 8 12.1% 29 -6.7% 28
21 TEN -7.7% 20 -8.5% 22 3-4 -2.2% 17 -2.4% 15 -7.9% 29
22 MIA -8.8% 25 -9.2% 23 3-3 -6.0% 20 4.0% 20 1.1% 17
23 BAL -9.1% 23 -7.1% 21 3-4 -15.5% 25 -4.6% 10 1.7% 13
24 TB -12.9% 22 -11.6% 24 0-6 -19.6% 31 -5.7% 9 1.1% 18
25 CLE -14.8% 24 -13.9% 25 3-4 -16.5% 27 3.6% 19 5.4% 6
26 STL -17.2% 26 -17.2% 27 3-4 -11.8% 22 8.7% 27 3.4% 11
27 MIN -17.6% 27 -16.9% 26 1-5 -16.0% 26 7.0% 25 5.4% 5
28 OAK -21.5% 28 -20.2% 29 2-4 -15.2% 24 4.2% 21 -2.1% 25
29 WAS -21.6% 30 -18.0% 28 2-4 8.8% 11 12.0% 28 -18.3% 32
30 HOU -23.7% 29 -21.3% 30 2-5 -17.2% 28 -3.1% 13 -9.7% 30
31 NYG -34.9% 31 -31.3% 31 1-6 -18.2% 29 5.2% 23 -11.4% 31
32 JAC -63.4% 32 -59.2% 32 0-7 -44.9% 32 17.9% 31 -0.6% 21
  • NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.
  • ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.
  • PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
  • FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
  • VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).

1 DEN 40.9% 6-1 48.6% 7.0 1 -13.0% 31 -1.3% 17 7.0% 11
2 SEA 34.4% 6-1 36.6% 5.5 3 -5.2% 26 -7.6% 30 12.6% 24
3 IND 26.2% 5-2 26.5% 5.3 5 0.1% 18 -12.4% 32 7.0% 13
4 KC 23.2% 7-0 32.6% 5.7 2 -19.9% 32 6.2% 6 1.7% 1
5 GB 22.5% 4-2 26.0% 5.4 4 -2.3% 25 -2.4% 20 2.4% 2
6 CAR 20.4% 3-3 26.7% 4.0 11 -6.7% 29 2.9% 9 14.6% 25
7 NO 19.0% 5-1 23.8% 4.7 7 0.3% 16 7.6% 5 8.8% 16
8 CHI 17.7% 4-3 18.5% 4.9 6 -6.1% 28 0.1% 14 6.9% 10
9 DAL 16.2% 4-3 18.7% 4.6 8 -1.6% 22 -4.3% 24 7.0% 12
10 SF 16.1% 5-2 12.5% 4.0 12 4.3% 8 -5.0% 28 22.6% 31
11 CIN 13.2% 5-2 13.2% 4.5 9 4.7% 7 -3.8% 22 8.0% 15
12 NE 9.7% 5-2 7.7% 4.4 10 2.5% 11 -1.0% 15 2.6% 3
13 SD 3.2% 4-3 4.6% 3.8 14 -11.2% 30 6.1% 7 5.5% 8
14 DET 2.6% 4-3 5.6% 3.8 13 -0.7% 19 -2.9% 21 5.5% 7
15 ATL 0.1% 2-4 6.3% 3.7 16 -1.8% 23 9.3% 3 3.3% 4
16 NYJ -0.6% 4-3 -0.3% 3.6 18 -0.8% 21 -1.3% 16 14.7% 26
17 BUF -1.0% 3-4 3.4% 3.6 19 1.4% 15 -4.1% 23 12.0% 22
18 PIT -3.7% 2-4 -8.9% 2.8 22 -0.7% 20 -2.2% 19 5.6% 9
19 ARI -4.2% 3-4 -5.6% 3.6 17 8.9% 3 -4.4% 25 10.3% 19
20 PHI -4.6% 3-4 -7.1% 3.7 15 2.0% 12 -4.5% 27 20.6% 30
21 TEN -7.7% 3-4 -3.0% 2.7 23 7.0% 4 -11.1% 31 12.2% 23
22 MIA -8.8% 3-3 -7.0% 2.9 21 3.4% 9 3.8% 8 15.4% 28
23 BAL -9.1% 3-4 -8.0% 2.9 20 1.6% 13 2.2% 10 11.4% 21
24 TB -12.9% 0-6 -12.6% 1.9 29 3.2% 10 8.6% 4 3.6% 5
25 CLE -14.8% 3-4 -6.6% 2.1 26 0.3% 17 -1.8% 18 9.4% 17
26 STL -17.2% 3-4 -17.7% 1.9 28 -5.5% 27 13.7% 1 18.7% 29
27 MIN -17.6% 1-5 -13.1% 2.7 24 -2.1% 24 9.4% 2 15.2% 27
28 OAK -21.5% 2-4 -17.3% 2.0 27 1.4% 14 0.8% 12 7.3% 14
29 WAS -21.6% 2-4 -23.4% 1.6 30 5.5% 6 0.8% 13 4.8% 6
30 HOU -23.7% 2-5 -23.9% 2.6 25 6.1% 5 -6.4% 29 23.5% 32
31 NYG -34.9% 1-6 -44.3% 0.7 31 13.7% 1 1.1% 11 11.0% 20
32 JAC -63.4% 0-7 -65.5% 0.0 32 12.7% 2 -4.5% 26 10.0% 18


107 comments, Last at 26 Oct 2013, 12:03am

1 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

I know defense varies more than offense, but if you had told me that after last year's debacle that Buffalo would have the number 6 defense in the league despite only two weeks of Byrd and playing 3rd-string corners, I'd have laughed at you.

Mike Pettine apparently really does know his stuff. Well, and some of the opponents have sucked, but, still...

46 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Doug Marrone and his staff have done an outstanding job in Buffalo this year. Really getting the most out of the talent on that roster. If he gets the opportunity to build the program over a couple years Buffalo will be a contender.

2 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

The Vikings have the 2nd hardest schedule from here on out. They ain't gettin' to the 5 projected wins the almanac had them at, and which I agreed with. I knew they'd be bad, but I didn't anticipate they would manage to make the Joe Webb Fan Club look rational. The coach is in his last year, and they will get no production from the qb position. This has Les Steckel written all over it, except Frazier is an easier guy to feel bad for.

Can we make Andrew Luck available again in the draft?

4 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Don't send Luck to the Jags, no one deserves that!

I have no idea how to find SF's variance by week 7 from last year, but I know they led the league or were top 3 in variance last year overall. Why are they so damn variant when I hoped that they'd theoretically be less variant after switching to a QB that didn't have to depend on a running game.

41 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Hey, now, the Jaguars have been in existence nearly 20 years and their best two drafted QBs are David Garrard and Rob Johnson, and he only because he showed just enough to get traded for a pick that became Fred Taylor. A great QB would be absolutely idolized in Jacksonville - heck, a great man who's a god-awful QB is still idolized here.

3 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

With their defense poised on the ledge, and their qb hurt, no matter his issues, the Bears are in deep, deep, trouble. Shame Lovie didn't get Trestman hired as an OC several years ago.

70 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Any real hope of the Bears being legitimate superbowl contenders died when Nate Collins' ACL was torn. This just makes them a fringe playoff team instead of a fringe contender.

94 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Don't worry, they'll find a way to finish 8-8 or 9-7 (assuming that 9-7 won't get them into the playoffs) and secure the worst possible draft pick for a non-playoff team, as usual.

After the past three seasons, I'm starting to get jealous of fans of teams that eliminate themselves from playoff contention by just being bad. I'm tired of getting my hopes up every year only to have them dashed by injuries without really seeing what kind of a team the Bears were.

5 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

So, I assume Tampa is now the best 0-6 team ever, instead of the best 0-5 team ever. Progress!

I thought Lavonte David had four TFL, but, then again, it's hard for my eyes to focus properly at this point after all the bashing of my head I've been doing.

6 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Surprised that opponent adjustments didn't keep GB and CLE more stable after this week; Brownies defense is now below replacement (3 weeks after being ranked 8th,) and GB is now +10.2 on DAVE from last week.

I'm guessing the relatively quick 14-0 GB lead had something to do with it, and Lacy looking like a Pro Bowler against them.

7 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Well Nick Fole's reign as #1 QB by DVOA didn't last long. Frankly I'm shocked that he's still 6th after last Sunday.

8 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

After the bye the following weekend, Denver's next 4 go: at SD, KC, at NE, at KC. Whole lotta fluctuation in the AFC might be coming.

31 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

I know the NFL wanted to keep things interesting by pushing the Divisional games to the end, but this year is maddening. At almost the mid-point of the season, a few teams have definitely settled out to the bottom, and that is about it. Since November and December have so many Divisional games (which also count as Conference games), we as fans are in a situation where we know the final tie-breakers and seedings are being set right now, but can't really be sure who the teams will be.

I guess it is particularly hard for us Panthers fans, since we're not sure of the identity - tough-luck loser, middle-of-the-road team who wins the easy ones but can't win the hard ones, spoiler who will dash some team's hopes, or plucky upstart hiding in media obscurity until the breakout run.

Football Outsiders has had faith in the Panthers thus far, but it will be another month or more before the truth is finally known if the Panthers are really a top team (and better than New Orleans).

77 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

If it were up to me, the six divisional games would be the last six games each team played. That would give everyone a legit chance to play catchup and keep every team alive in the playoff race longer.

80 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

In reply to by panthersnbraves

I agree ... the scheduling IS maddening, with teams like Carolina and KC essentially remaining unproven until deep into the second half of the season.

My guess is that although Carolina is a good team, they'll miss out on the playoffs. They're 3-3 after playing an extremely easy (by DVOA's measurements) schedule. They are a high variance team with the 9th toughest schedule in the league from here on out. That looks like a hard-luck 9-7 or 8-8 to me.

Instead, I think Detroit nabs the 6th playoff spot, assuming Megatron gets back to 100% and stays healthy. The Lions have a very easy schedule remaining ... the injury-decimated Bears, the hapless Bucs, the Giants, the Vikings.

Still, I think finishing at .500 or above should be enough to get some pressure off of Cam Newton and some (dare I say?) momentum towards a better 2014.

98 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

I think it's only maddening because other teams turned out worse than they thought.

If you looked at KC's schedule based off of last year's records it would have been:

Week 1 (2-14) Jags (easy win regardless)
Week 2 (8-8) Cowboys (everyone has high expectations, 9-7, 10-6 seasons)
Week 3 (4-12) Eagles (Chip Kelly was the talk of the NFL, even in week 1!)
Week 4 (9-7) Giants (Another contender at the start of the year)
Week 5 (6-10) Titans (Another team some had progressing to 2nd in the division)
Week 6 (4-12) Raiders (Well, they're the Raiders...)
Week 7 (12-4) Texans (We all expect the Texans to collapse by now, but after last year most had them still near a 10-6, 11-5 team)

So lets say Jags and Raiders are "guaranteed wins" the other 5 games the teams records were 7.8-8.2. I'd say a schedule that averages to be just under 8-8 is good scheduling. Keep in mind that the Chiefs were 2-14...even if the NFL gave them some slack in scheduling (I personally think the NFL doesn't care, and it just works out by standings anyway), I don't think anyone thought they'd go 7-0. Also, I don't think anyone expected the Chiefs' opponents to be at an average of 2.1-3.7 (without Chiefs' wins).

9 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Did not expect the Patriots to rise and the Bills to fall this week.

I would say Indy is going to feast on their easy schedule going forward, but based on their results so far they would be better off playing the best teams in the league.

10 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

No way Bikings better than Raiders. Minnesota truly crap twam. Raiders would annihilate Vikivs head to head.

16 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Raiders have a pretty good run defense. They would get their exercise that day. 55 straight handoffs to Peterson. Maybe the occasional sack-fumble/screen pass into the bleachers whenever he needs a breather.

Annihilate? I don't know... Probably more like 9-3.

11 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Aaron, sorry to hear about your dead hard drive. My condolences to its motherboard, keyboard, and the little flash drives who no doubt wonder what happened. You'll have to be strong for all of them. (sniff)

Is there an appropriate charity I can send, I don't know, a few lines of code to, to show my respect?

Thanks for busting your hump and getting this out almost on time.

12 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

It is still mindboggling to me that CHI's Pass Defense ranks ahead of GB's. I assume having Eli throw passes straight to your defenders is helping, whereas GB has not had many INTs but has been pretty solid outside of Week 1 (and late in Games when up by multi score)

56 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

This Bears fan is fairly amazed too. The Bears defense is now on life support. They haven't looked good all year and now with two DTs, the starting MLBer and Lance Briggs all out for a while (or the season) it isn't going to get any better.

The only reason for thinking anything positive about the Bears' pass defense is that Tillman and Jennings remain turnover machines - of course the negative being that they are both free agents in three months time.

13 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Colts Special teams, #8! I'm sorry, maybe you did not hear:


I've got smelling salts for all of you with the vapors now.

Pat McAfee seems to start each game with a 32 yard punt, yet somehow ends up with a 50 yard gross average by game's end, four kicks inside the 20, and a few KR-shaped indentations in his helmet. Ooh-rah!

20 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Haha. This Colts fan loves it! Totally different team than I'm used to watching. So well-rounded. They've really done a great job putting the defense together also. None of the players are really impressive on their own, but much more than a sum of their parts. Just hope they can still move the ball on offense without 87 :o(

38 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Not just the #8 special teams, but the team as a whole is very well rounded. Looking at the DVOA table, the Colts are as well-rounded as anybody in the league. It's interesting to see a team with a plan other than "have Peyton go dominate". Whether that translates into success in January remains to be seen, but it's definitely different.

14 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Okay, preliminary AFC playoff view... Denver is one game behind KC with two H2H games. Denver has the 17th ranked future sked, KC the 6th... Gonna be interesting. I say Denver takes the division. But if they have the same record as Indy (with its 32nd ranked sked), Indy gets the HFA nod. Cincy and NE, both 5-2 but ranked 11 and 12 respectively in DVOA have final schedules ranked 22 and 15, respectively. SO I think CIN will finish ahead of NE. SD is right behind them in DVOA and the eyeball test as well--maybe ahead of NE using the eyeball test, actually.

Safe to say the two Den/KC games and the Indy/Cin and Indy/KC games will have a big impact on the playoff picture. The biggest remaining Pats game is probably Denver, maybe Balt.

18 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

It could get really messy if 3-4 teams end at 12-4, because then h2h will probably be irrelevant. Cincinnati has an advantage for now having 1 of their 2 losses be to an NFC team. I also think Denver ends up with the division, but KC schedule is just so easy. Obviously, if Denver sweeps they have a clear shot, but anything less and it could be tough.

24 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

I'm having trouble understanding why everyone points out KC's easy schedule without noticing that Denver's schedule has been the second-easiest. This should not have been difficult since they play virtually identical schedules.

25 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Virtually identical, but not exactly, and that makes a big difference. Denver already lost at Indianapolis, while Kansas City gets them at home. They also play at Buffalo before Manuel returns, while Denver has to go to New England.

27 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

I honestly think Denver is going to have to sweep KC to win the division, because the remaining schedule for KC is significantly easier.

42 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Through weeks 1-9 QBs Kansas City have faced/will face are: Gabbert, Romo, Vick, E.Manning, Fitzpatrick, Pryor, Keenum, Weedon, Thad Lewis.

Week 10 is their bye, then they face: P.Manning, Rivers, P.Manning, RG3, Pryor, Luck, Rivers.

Looks to me like it gets a heck of a lot tougher for their defence after week 10.

28 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Is it really? I think Denver twice, San Diego twice, and Indianapolis is five games against playoff-caliber opponents, and even the games against Washington or Buffalo could be tricky. Not many layups, as I see it

30 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Kansas City is going to get swept by Denver. They can't score 35 points, which is pretty much the price of admission. SD has a better chance to win a shoot out.

34 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Kansas barely beat the Raiders (till Pryor got all rookie-on them in Q4 - with a third string O-line) whereas Denver barely broke-stride. Denver are a significantly better team than Kansas

49 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

In reply to by Eggwasp (not verified)

Get back to me when someone figures out how to beat KC's defense like they have already figured out how to stop Denver's offense.

Also, as the weather gets colder and less pleasant, defenses get stronger whereas high-octane passing offenses sputter and slow down. That includes Denver and Indy.

Not to mention, KC has the pass rush to get anyone (especially Denver's depleted line) and the secondary to play man on even WR corps as deep as Denver's.

Then mix in the Arrowhead advantage, which seems to be back. Pryor's loss of composure didn't happen in a vacuum.

My conclusion is: a home/home split with Denver and a victory over Indy is looking like a good bet.

52 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

In reply to by nathan of brai… (not verified)

"Get back to me when someone figures out how to beat KC's defense like they have already figured out how to stop Denver's offense."

Wait, what?

They held the Broncos to 33. That would still be the #1 scoring offense and #32 scoring defense. What they did was hold them within 1 SD of league average instead of 2 SDs...

53 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings


Denver is going to crush Kansas City. A hella good offensive day for KC is 24. A bad offensive day, against a really good defense for Denver is 30. Honestly I am not sure KC doesn't lose to Cleveland this week if there is a squirrelly special teams play or two.

88 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

In reply to by commissionerleaf

Agree on this weekend; it's the trap game/surprise upset of the week if I say so myself; and at least I think the spread (which started at 9 and has converged to 7.5 in places) is too large given the defensive lean of both teams, and given KC's weak schedule so far. Special teams are the wildcard, agreed.

I also think that Campbell may not necessarily be better than Weeden but teams may have forgotten how to defend him/don't have recent film on him, so there will be at least temporary improvement.

99 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

We should all stop and realize one thing as well: The Chiefs' still have Alex Smith and Andy Reid. Pretty much the butt of all QB and time management jokes since 2005. That has to lose 1 or 2 games this year alone, independent of who they're facing.

96 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

That's 33 points scored while comitting 4 turnovers, 3 fumbles (Hillman, Holiday, Manning) and one INT on the road against one of the best teams in the NFL. All of those turnovers resulted in either points for Indy or took points away from Denver.

How many teams could overcome those circumstances and make it close at the end? The biggest concern for Denver going forward isn't their defense, but the injuries on the offensive line. Losing Clady was huge and might have been the difference in the game, as his absence resulted in the biggest play of the game (Mathis strip-sack). Orlando Franklin can't come back soon enough.

54 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

In reply to by nathan of brai… (not verified)

No Pryors loss of poise didn't happen in a vacuum - it happened in the context of every single expected OL starter (which lets face it, was hardly expected to be the Hogs!) was injured - including the 2nd string C and the third string replacement RT)

72 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

In response to commissionerleaf the Chiefs are averaging 24 points a game thats actually an average game for them...... I am in no way saying that the Chiefs offense is stellar or even good but the fact is there is only two AFC teams that are outscoring them right now per game and that is Indianapolis and Denver. I think Denver takes both games personally but lets not completely throw out stats and say 24 is a "hella" good game its actually there seasonal average on the dot. 169/7=24.14

75 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Nope, commissionerleaf is right. The Chiefs as a whole are averaging 24 points a game; their offense is averaging 19 points a game. I don't expect them to maintain a 5/7 non-offensive TD per game average.

67 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Nathan, Not to sound snarky, but I think you are living in the past when you refer to Indy as having a high-flying passing offense. They run as much as they pass, Luck is middle of the pack for yardage, and Reggie Wayne and last year's top TE are on IR. They are now calling up practice squad WRs.

After watching KC limp by the Texans (led by a rookie QB in his first start) and the Colts handle the Broncos this week, I am quite sure the Broncos will beat KC in Denver, and pretty sure in KC as well. If the Broncos gave the ball away three times in Indy, and Indy gave Manning half his season sacks in ONE GAME and hit him another ten times, and if they got lucky with a handful of his passes fluttering... and he still put up 33 on the road, you have to figure that no matter how good KC's D is, the Broncos are good for 25-30 pts on the road and 35+ at home. Can KC score that much? I an skeptical.

The Indy game is a big one--if Colts still had Wayne, I'd give them a 1 pt edge in KC, 3-4 at home. Without Wayne... I'll have to see how they adapt in a couple weeks. But for the time being, and based on what I saw last Sunday from both teams, I'd call it a toss-up.

73 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

I don't see how Kansas City's defense is only 3-8 points better than the Colts. Is pointing out that Indy gave Manning half his season sacks supposed to indicate that it was a fluke occurrence? But Kansas City has the most sacks in the league by far. Also, I don't know about getting lucky with fluttering passes. It seems like Indy's defense forced his passes to be like that, and it's certainly reasonable to expect Kansas City to do the same.

82 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

KC's D is clearly better than Indy's. But their O is not as good.

Yes, 4 sacks a game is a fluke occurrence for Manning (last happened in 2007 IIRC from the TV graphics) and for the Broncos this year, who averaged less than one sack per game in the first six games. Now the average is 1.3.

Okay, give KC six sacks (4.7 times the average so far seems a bit rich), more or less unheard of for Manning, but who knows? And the same fluttery passes as a result. They hold Den to 25 in KC and 33 in Den.

Will KC score that much? I just don't know.

Two more points: Indy forced 3 fumbles and recovered 2.5 (safety OB is not a recovery, but still points, so I gave them half of a recovery). That is not sustainable for either team (to lose or recover all the fumbles). Will KC recover all the fumbles they force? Will Den's luck regress to the expected center and will THEY recover all the fumbles? Or even just one or two?

The points swing on those fumbles for Indy was 2 for the safety, 7 for the kickoff return (scored on next play from the 11), and 3-7 for the fumble they recovered on their own 3 yard line, or 13-17 pts benefit off those turnovers, for a pretty good offense. If KC doesn't get all those turnovers, and has a less explosive offense, where do their points come from to top the 25+ Den will likely score?

My point was that the Colts got a lot of breaks, held Denver to season lows, and STILL Denver scored 33. If KC plays their usual game on D (holding a record-breaking offense to, say, 20 pts below their season average) but gets ONE LESS break than the Colts (resulting in an additional TD for Den or one less score for KC), Den probably scores 25+ in KC and 30 +/- in Den.

Will KC keep up offensively? They may need a ST TD to win, which can happen.

Denver can also come back to earth offensively with a cluster of 28 pt games, which is still good, but not otherworldly. But as things stand today, I think it's pretty likely that Den scores 25+ in KC and 30+ in Den, and I have not seen that kind of potential from KC's offense. Den's D, which I thought was only giving up garbage time points earlier this year, started to unravel in Dallas, a tiny bit against Jax, and continued against the Colts. So maybe that points to KC scoring 30 on them. Not sure. They should be great games; I hope the Seattle TV stations carry them both somehow, or I'll be stuck watching the Jags play the '82 Colts, or some similar game.

91 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

In reply to by Eggwasp (not verified)

The Broncos haven't been all that great the past three weeks. They almost lost to the Cowboys and let the Jaguars hang around. The Chiefs definitely have a shot.

97 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Dont forget that against Dallas, Denver was missing five defensive starters; including their two best CBs (Bailey, Harris),defensive captain (Woodyard). and best pass rusher (Miller)... and that Dallas has an explosive offense when Romo is hot.

65 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Big difference between @ Indy and getting them at home. Also a lot easier to go to Buffalo against Thad Lewis, than to go to New England in late November.

To me this feels eerily similar to 1997 if Denver splits with KC
--Denver choked away number 1 seed in big upset the prior year.
--With a KC split and loss to NE, I think Denver chokes away division (just like '97) bc KC good team with easier schedule
--KC is defensive based team that lives off of turnover ratio (both years) that could easily be #1 seed
--37 year old QB maligned for not winning "big one" or enough of them

66 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Big difference between @ Indy and getting them at home. Also a lot easier to go to Buffalo against Thad Lewis, than to go to New England in late November.

To me this feels eerily similar to 1997 if Denver splits with KC
--Denver choked away number 1 seed in big upset the prior year.
--With a KC split and loss to NE, I think Denver chokes away division (just like '97) bc KC good team with easier schedule
--KC is defensive based team that lives off of turnover ratio (both years) that could easily be #1 seed
--37 year old QB maligned for not winning "big one" or enough of them

17 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

The Falcons are clearly ranked too low because they just won a game with only two good players and a WR who can't walk down an aisle in a supermarket without falling over. An entire offense of nothing but Snovel passes is way better than this. They have a higher DVOA than two teams that they lost to, which converts those losses to wins. Uh, right?

Seriously, the one high note of this season so far has been watching Matt Ryan singlehandedly move an offense with missing or limited receivers, a shockingly inept OL, and constantly bad field position from the sieve-like defense. The only problems are that I don't think the Harry Douglas Show can possibly happen more than once, Jacquizz Rodgers will start getting the Tony Gonzalez treatment where three guys whale on him with lead pipes every time he tries to cross the line of scrimmage, and their red zone offense still looks terrible and mystifying.

21 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

After several years of reading FO articles noting how the Falcons have been lucky, I'm waiting for a morsel of a writeup that points out that this year they've been somewhat unlucky. Of course, having watched the defense melt in the last minute of the two awful losses to the Dolphins and Jets, I know there was no unlucky about it.

OL has gotten better, but we are going to miss Julio like crazy.

22 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

GB special teams back in familiar territory. GB defense improves(!?!) without Clay Matthews.

39 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

And with no Nick Perry or Mike Neal either...only 2 healthy outside linebackers on the entire roster and somehow they are making it work. Hawk has really stepped up his game but a lot of it has to do with the improved defensive line play...the effective return of Johnny Jolley has really allowed the linebacker corps to make some plays.

47 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

No Mike Neal? So who was that guy in the 96 Neal jersey who played 35 defensive snaps (data available here on FO even)? OK that was overly snarky, but Neal played, he had a couple hurries and QB hits. He was still clearly not fully healthy but he played decently.

As to the D in general, you are spot on, the line has been a huge factor. The rotation has worked so well, I don't anyone has played more than 36 snaps on that line since the first (maybe 2nd) week. Against the Browns in was Raji 33, Daniels 31, Pickett 27, Jones 23, Jolly 20, Wilson 9, Boyd 7. The team had 70 defensive snaps. That line stays fresh and they all seem to have pretty well defined packages too, so they can really focus on what they need to do for the situations they are in the game for. Sure they will get "stuck" on the field at times against a hurry up offense, but they are generally well rested.

The secondary is getting better with coverage jobs too. House is finally fully healthy and while Williams will never be the 2010 version of himself he is serviceable. Shields is not being asked to play zone much and his technique is better so he isn't just reliant on his athleticism. Getting Burnett back has helped immensely with cutting down on blown assignments. There is enough depth that the coaches have some additional leverage when a player does poorly too. McMillian got benched for bad play, House has been benched for bad play, Hyde has been benched for bad play and they had to earn their spots back on the field. Hayward is going to come back too.

The first two games of the season (SF and WAS) dug a huge hole for the defense in terms of stats. I don't want to post too much of the premium DB stats, but pass D was 94.1% vs SF and in the 40's vs Was. The only other times they have had positive (bad) defensive DVOA's for either run or pass D was the passing D against Bal was at 19.4% and the run D vs WAS at 2.4%. Otherwise they have had negative defensive DVOA on both phases, and overall negative defensive DVOA in every game except the first 2.

Now they did that vs Dalton (who is erratic at times), Stafford without Calvin Johnson, Baltimore who are decent passing (outside of the Buf game) but can't run the ball at all, and then a Weeden Browns team. So while I'm optimistic it's cautious. I still see the defensive weakness as the linebackers, and the secondary is decent but doesn't seem to have the ball hawking skills the players have shown in the past. They do tackle better this year though. I've seen a lot more wrap up and while they may side down the legs wrapping means they still tend to be able to hold the legs and bring the player down. It might allow a yard or two more, but it has seemed to prevent a lot of the broken tackle 20 - 40 yard plays that were becoming very common.

As long as health holds out on the D line, which seems to be stocked with quite a few above average though not spectacular players, I think the D will continue to improve, in part by getting some players back from injury at other positions, and could very well settle in around a -15 to -20% DVOA. Yes, I do think they have a shot at being a top 5 defense by the end of the season.

51 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

My apologies, you were right about Mike Neal playing.

I had heard he hadn't practiced earlier in the week and given his injury history plus the fact that I don't remember hearing his name called I assumed he didn't play. Also, I realized he's still being classified as a defensive lineman (for snap count purposes) and I now think of him more as a hybrid linebacker than a down lineman.

101 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

My only challenge to the top 5 defense issue is related to Dom Capers' complacency with playing full zone defenses without gaining much pass rush. They're being challenged getting any sort of pressure with 4 guys (where zone is primarily effective).

The good things I've seen is tackling ability and coverage from Lattimore and others. They've done a great job on run defense, but the lack of turnovers is probably due mostly to lack of pressure and excess zone with the QB's having ample time.

They haven't done much in my opinion to change the scheme enough to generate the pass rush. In addition, Capers' has basically been ok with playing zone because no team has been able to really sustain long drives back to back to keep up with the offense. These cover-2 or cover-3 zones are keeping the big plays to a minimum which makes it challenging for teams that are down by 14 or so (which seems to be where most of the games have been with exception of SF and CIN of course).

105 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

I'm not so sure about that. I think Capers has been better and disguising where the 4 rushers are coming from. They have sent 5 or more rushers less frequently since Matthews got injured based on PFF numbers; 32% of the time after the injury vs 39% before Matthews broke his thumb.

This D is a lot more like what he did in 09 and 10, and got away from in 11 and 12. Since a lot of the pass rush is coming out of the the 2 lineman formations, you often have the 2 linemen, one outside backer and then a middle backer or corner coming. That was Jenkins and Raji usually as the two linemen, when they failed to replace Jenkins Capers couldn't get that to work anymore. While Jones hasn't been getting the sacks like Jenkins did, he pretty much only plays in that spot, and he has been facilitating some of the blitzes working. He sucked up two blockers on one of Hawks untouched sacks.

So with that you have just 4 rushers, the other OLB and MLB are in coverage. If you don't watch the all-22 film you don't notice and it looks like that MLB or CB was a 5th or even a 6th blitzer.

I also don't see a lot of zone after the first two games where they played it nearly exclusively. Shields and the other OCB (House or Williams) are almost always in man. They sometimes have a safety over top and will be playing trail where the TV angles make it look like they were coming over in zone and are handing the receiver off to the safety, but they generally were playing press.

The slot guys and the backers are often in zone but that is one of the base concepts of the defense, regardless of personnel grouping. Outside man with a safety over the top (Collins was great at this and Burnett has been getting better) and then zone in the middle, with the other safety sometimes in man, sometimes over the top, and sometimes just covering a zone, that may or may not overlap with the man coverage the corners have.

As you mentioned Lattimore appears to be able to cover. Jones is OK at too. It's refreshing considering Hawk really isn't good, and neither was Bishop.

Now the pressure isn't great, and the base 3-4 D doesn't seem to generate much, especially without Matthews, while they do get it with just four rushers, it does rely on what feels like trickery at times. But if the D line rotation holds up, both health and player skill wise, things should just keep getting better as the year rolls on.

As to lack of turnovers I think they've dropped as many ints this year as they did all last season. But that is just a feeling I haven't dug for data on it. I hope that Hayward helps with that.

I also hope Williams steps things up a bit more, even if this is his last season (they aren't paying him $10 million next year, they'll pay Shields $6 - 7, and go with Hayward, House, Hyde, and someone from the draft).

26 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Only defense of the comment regarding the Washington special teams is the lack of touchbacks was due to them doing everything possible to avoid Hester returning anything. Which based on their return coverage is probably smart (they should literally never kick it to anyone under 300lbs)

32 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

I find it fascinating that the #2 ranked Wide Receiver per DVOA - Doug Baldwin - is not even an option to vote for in Pro Bowl voting. Seahawk fans know Baldwin is Mr. Clutch and the most valuable receiver on that team. yet, while Denvers three WR's are all on the ballot, only Rice and Tate make the ballot for the Hawks and neither are remotely having as good a season as Baldwin.

36 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Interesting goings-ons in the AFC East. New England went up with a loss, Miami went up with a loss. The Jets went up with a win. Buffalo went down with a win.

43 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Imagine what the Patriot's special teams would be if they didn't have LeGarrette Blount taking the ball to Le16yard line on every Lekickoff. You would think they could just get some one else to cacth and kneel 7 times a game. He lesucks.

57 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

This raises a question that's been going through my head for a little while now, and this seems as good as any place to raise it.

Why do returners get _credited_ for yards when the return the ball out of the end zone and don't make it back to the 20? Also, why catching the ball 2 yards deep in the end zone and making it to the 18 and catching it 9 yards deep and making it to the 18 result in different amounts of return yardage doesn't really make sense, either. I can see the logic in calling it an 18-yard return, but the guy should be credited -2 yards.

Calling the last example a 27-yard return is just stupid.

64 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Quite so, and I've always thought the same thing. Returning a kick out of the endzone and coming up short of the 20 is a failure, plain and simple. Considering that the 20 is being offered FOR FREE, bringing it back to the 21 is a gain of 1 yard, not 21, and certainly not 29 or 30 depending on how deep in the endzone you caught it. I'd argue that you need to get to maybe the 25 just to justify the additional risk of penalties and injuries being incurred by bringing it out.

90 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Alternately, you could just credit any returner that chooses a touchback with a 20 yard return...

I sometimes wonder of the CFL rule would make things more interesting... kneeling to take the touchback gives the opposing team 1 point... You'd have to move kickoffs back, though. There are too many kickers these days that can boom the kickoff out of the back of the endzone.

Also, the NFL would never do it, since it would encourage more returns, which they're trying to discourage.

60 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

I offered my circle of Pats fans friends $100 to anyone who could explain Blount returning kickoffs. Nobody has stepped up to claim the prize.

62 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Bucs fans couldn't understand why anyone, particularly a pass-heavy team like the Patriots, would trade for the guy in the first place; he was patently awful as a runner last year, and he's abysmal in pass protection. Then they started using him as a kick returner, and I started wondering if it was all some bizarre performance-art piece by Belichik about the futility of man's existence or something.

Don't get it at all.

76 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

"[I]t was all some bizarre performance-art piece by Belichik about the futility of man's existence[.]"

Sounds to me like you do get it . . .

45 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Jacksonville is clearly ranked too high because they got pushed up one spot by Grambling State refusing to play. Ranking the teams by their coach's performance at the Carson Palmer Cornhole Classic is way better than this. Adam Vinatieri has scored more points in Jacksonville in one game than the Jaguars as a team have in three home games.

50 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

As a Redskins fan I'm encouraged. Hadn't thought about how tough their schedule was -- especially for them with their incredibly challenged pass defense. Now, they are still pretty bad, but after Denver this week likely drops them to 2-5, their past sched will stand around 11.5 and their future at .5. You can imagine them sweeping the four games in their division schedule, beating MIN, and winning two of San Diego at home at 1:00, @Atl, home against KC and, SF. It's more likely that they split their remaining games to end 7-9, but 9-7 wouldn't be absurd, and winning the division there wouldn't be impossible. So the season isn't QUITE over yet.

Special teams are likely to improve. Griffin seems to be getting a bit better (not as much as others have claimed, but better) and it is possible he will improve further. Haslett did switch gears a bit last year and the defense improved substantially during their win streak, so that's possible too.

Or Griffin could go down (or just continue to function as a pro-level passer only off play action), special teams could cost games, another injury or two could deplete the OL, etc. Solace is that the Giants have a far bigger problem--they can't block anyone.

63 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

In reply to by usernaim250

I'm not sure about encouraged. Their SOS is about to get easier, but their DVOA says they've been playing bad even after accounting for the opposition.

Still, it's true that no one seems willing/able to seize control of that division. That fact alone will probably keep WAS in the playoff hunt into December.

55 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

The NY Giants is clearly ranked too low because we just DESTROYED THE ALL-MIGHTY VIKINGS! My own point-of-view as a passionate and blind fan is way better than this. NO ONE CAN SOTP US! WE ARE GNOIG TO WIN THE NFC ESAT! WCATH OUT, BHOYZ, BYRDZ AND PYGHZ!!

103 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Just click on the links to learn more, Bobman! It's easy.

Now if only I could figure out how to make $10,000 A MONTH as a stay-at-home mom ...

84 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

I have a question about the Playoff Odds page.

The mean wins records indicate that in the AFC Den is likely to get the #1 seed with 12.5 wins, and the Colts with 11 wins SHOULD have the #2 (since KC cannot despite 12.3 projected wins), but Cin (at 10.8 wins) have a higher probability of securing #2. Does that mean that in the 50k simulations, Cin beat Ind more often? So that even with essentially the same record, Cin gets the nod for #2 by a 32.5 : 29.5 ratio? That's how I read it. Or maybe it's a better conf record, since Indy's two toughest games are Cin and KC, plus maybe a loss to Ten or Hou.... and Cin already has a leg up on them with conf record. But of course, the H2H tiebreaker comes before conf record.

Hmmm, things to wonder about while not working in the office during a bye week. Oh, hey, it's almost lunch time!

In NFC, NO really only projects out to 10.6 wins despite currently being 5-1? Wow, I can't quite picture them finishing out 5-5 or 6-4; they look pretty complete, play in a dome, and have the Bucs and injury-riddled Falcons in their division. I guess that future sked is pretty challenging.

89 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

I'd hazard a guess that the apparent discrepancy is caused by the Bengals being favored for the H2H tiebreaker, based on the Colts/Bengals game being in Cincy.

93 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

The Bengals are clearly ranked too high because Andy Dalton's arm is Al Dente about is time in the season, and will soon get wiggly. Ranking teams based on total weight is way better than this. U can stop the Bengals just by dabble covering their one trick pony and showing their cornerbakcs old Cowboys games.

95 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Not arguing with Aaron, but this column sings Lawrence Timmons' praises, noting that of the 17 tackles he was officially credited with (20 according to the coaches' film breakdown), 6 came after he broke his hand in the fourth quarter.

100 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Thanks for your work... I just want to be sure I understand what each of the column heading abbreviations are for in the first DVOA table you have on this page.


Can you please explain what those columns are?

102 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Special Teams DVOA, and rank in Special Teams DVOA. New England has the best special teams in the league (1), Washington the worst (32).

106 Re: Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Which,of course, brings with it the question of exactly how the heck New England is #1 with the aforementioned Mr. Blount "returning" kicks?