DVOA Analysis
Football Outsiders' revolutionary metrics that break down every single play of the NFL season

Week 12 DVOA Ratings

Week 12 DVOA Ratings
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

by Aaron Schatz

The Denver Broncos remain No. 1 in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings this week, and their overall DVOA rating actually gets a nice boost from last week after a nice win over Miami. But in another very important fashion, the Broncos finally fell from the top spot this week. They are no longer our projected No. 1 favorite to win Super Bowl XLIX. That spot now belongs to the New England Patriots.

The Patriots' dominating win over Detroit has moved them up to the No. 2 spot in overall DVOA, trailing only the Broncos. They rank even better in weighted DVOA, because this week their Monday night debacle in Kansas City begins to count less in the weighted DVOA formula. The last three Patriots wins are their three best games of the year by single-game DVOA, and a week-to-week graph of their performance this season shows a very steady and obvious slope of improvement with one big, glaring outlier in Week 4.

Early in the season, the Patriots looked like they had a strong defense, but that was exaggerated by the fact that we had not started using opponent adjustments yet. But over the last few weeks, the Patriots finally have had an actual strong defense. (If we split the season into three four-week periods, the Patriots defense would rank 10th in Weeks 1-4, 28th in Weeks 5-8, and then third in Weeks 9-12 behind only San Francisco and Arizona.) This week, the Patriots move into the top ten for defensive DVOA, making them one of two teams that currently ranks in the top ten for all three phases of the game. (The other is Baltimore.)

As I detail in today's ESPN Insider playoff odds report, the Broncos had been our Super Bowl favorite pretty much straight through since the first preseason projections that I did after the NFL Draft in May. The only exception was a two-week period in late September when we had the Cincinnati Bengals as our favorites, in between the Denver loss to Seattle and the Cincinnati loss to New England. But with the improvement in the Patriots' weighted DVOA, New England now wins the No. 1 seed in 46.4 percent of our simulations and the Super Bowl in 18.7 percent of our simulations. Denver is second at 17.0 percent, Green Bay third at 14.5 percent. No other team is above 7.5 percent. Incidentally, the Super Bowl XXXI rematch of New England and Green Bay that takes place this Sunday afternoon is also our most likely "special" Super Bowl, showing up in 9.0 percent of simulations.

(Also, the ESPN article has an error where I mistakenly referred to Baltimore as the only team in the top ten for all three phases of the game. I wrote that before the Bills-Jets game changed opponent adjustments and moved the Patriots defense into the top ten as well.)

Another interesting note about the Broncos: Denver had ranked first or second in both offense and defense for six of the past seven weeks, but the Broncos drop to fourth in defensive DVOA this week. However, they move back into the No. 1 spot ahead of Green Bay on offense. New England's move into position as our Super Bowl favorite is truly more about the Patriots rising than the Broncos falling. Although tears have been shed and garments rended for the struggles of the Broncos in recent weeks, DVOA suggests we're only really talking here about two bad games, neither of which was really that terrible.

One extra reason we know that New England and Denver have been good this year as that they have had to play strong division rivals... and each other's strong division rivals. Buffalo's "Practice? Who Needs Practice?" stomptacular over the New York Jets gives the AFC East three different teams in this week's DVOA top ten. The whole division isn't great, of course; the Jets are now No. 28 with what I believe is the first below-average defense in Rex Ryan history, ranked No. 19. The AFC West is not quite as strong as the AFC East because of the recent decline of the Chargers, but that division still has the Broncos at No. 1, the Chiefs at No. 7, the Chargers at No. 16, and the "underrated because they aren't the worst team in the NFL" Raiders now at No. 26, moving up four spots after their first win of the season. The AFC North may be the more balanced division, and everyone may end up with a winning record because they all get to play the NFC South, but Baltimore at No. 4 is the only AFC North team in our top dozen.

And oh, the sad, sad NFC South. While the Saints are at least respectable if you consider them only by DVOA (No. 18), we're still stuck in a situation where the NFC South champion now has a losing record in 63.0 percent of simulations and goes 6-9-1 or worse in 15.9 percent of simulations.

Two quick notes on the playoff odds report. First, we realized that we were not listing the Carolina/Cincinnati tie in either team's Projected Mean Wins number. So beginning this week, each team has 0.5 added to its Projected Mean Wins to represent the tie. Second, we've been debating around here whether we should be giving the Arizona Cardinals home-field advantage for the Super Bowl. We finally decided that we would give them "half advantage," which is similar to what Ken Pomeroy does when he does college basketball projections and a team is hosting during March Madness. We weren't able to get that programmed into our simulator in time for this week but beginning next week the Cardinals will get a small boost for playing the Super Bowl in their home stadium.

* * * * *

Once again in 2014, we have teamed up with EA Sports to bring Football Outsiders-branded player content to Madden 15 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in DVOA and DYAR. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats. We'll announce the players each Tuesday in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend. We will also tweet out images of these players from the @fboutsiders Twitter account on most Fridays. One player each week will only be available for 24 hours from the point these players enter packs on Friday.

The Football Outsiders stars for Week 12 are:

  • WR Odell Beckham, NYG (24-HOUR HERO): Led all WR in Week 12 with 76 receiving DYAR (10-for-11, 146 yards, 2 TD).
  • RE Chris Clemons, JAC: 3 sacks and a forced fumble in just the first quarter alone.
  • K Steven Hauschka, SEA: 4-for-5 on field goals; all six kickoffs into the end zone including four touchbacks.
  • MLB Rolando McClain, DAL: Led NFL defenders with 10 stops in Week 12 including 8 run tackles for a combined 0 yards and the tackle to prevent Giants conversion on fourth-and-2 and end the game.
  • RT Louis Vasquez, DEN: Allowed no sacks or QB hits vs. Cameron Wake; Broncos had 77 rushing yards on seven runs to the right side.

The elite Odell Beckham has a 94 overall rating and a 100 spectacular catch rating.

* * * * *

All stats pages are now updated with Week 12 information -- or will be in the next few minutes -- including FO Premium, snap counts, and playoff odds. You can also read the new weekly playoff odds report on ESPN Insider to get more commentary on the current playoff odds.

* * * * *

[ad placeholder 3]

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 12 weeks of 2014, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for strength of schedule and to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
WEIGHTED
DVOA
RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
1 DEN 35.6% 1 35.0% 1 8-3 26.1% 1 -14.3% 4 -4.9% 29
2 NE 25.7% 5 29.7% 2 9-2 17.1% 4 -1.7% 10 6.9% 3
3 GB 24.5% 2 25.4% 3 8-3 24.6% 2 -0.1% 12 -0.2% 15
4 BAL 22.4% 3 23.2% 4 7-4 10.1% 10 -4.3% 9 8.0% 2
5 MIA 19.1% 4 21.3% 5 6-5 12.3% 7 -10.6% 6 -3.8% 24
6 SEA 18.5% 7 16.0% 6 7-4 12.0% 8 -8.2% 7 -1.8% 20
7 KC 14.2% 6 14.2% 7 7-4 10.3% 9 2.0% 18 5.8% 4
8 PHI 12.4% 8 13.3% 8 8-3 -2.2% 16 -5.3% 8 9.4% 1
9 BUF 9.3% 12 9.6% 9 6-5 -11.1% 26 -14.9% 3 5.4% 6
10 DAL 8.5% 13 8.9% 10 8-3 14.5% 5 6.1% 25 0.1% 13
11 SF 7.6% 11 8.2% 11 7-4 -3.9% 18 -16.6% 2 -5.0% 30
12 IND 6.9% 14 6.8% 13 7-4 3.1% 13 2.0% 17 5.8% 5
13 PIT 6.8% 10 7.4% 12 7-4 17.8% 3 9.7% 29 -1.3% 19
14 DET 4.6% 9 3.7% 14 7-4 -10.0% 24 -20.5% 1 -5.9% 32
15 CIN 3.5% 17 0.8% 17 7-3-1 -0.4% 15 1.3% 16 5.2% 7
16 SD 1.3% 18 0.2% 18 7-4 9.6% 11 7.9% 27 -0.4% 17
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
WEIGHTED
DVOA
RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
17 ARI 1.2% 15 1.0% 16 9-2 -9.6% 23 -12.6% 5 -1.8% 21
18 NO 0.9% 16 2.0% 15 4-7 14.1% 6 14.1% 31 0.8% 12
19 CLE -3.7% 19 -4.5% 19 7-4 -3.3% 17 0.3% 13 -0.1% 14
20 ATL -6.5% 20 -9.0% 20 4-7 6.7% 12 16.5% 32 3.3% 8
21 HOU -9.7% 21 -9.2% 21 5-6 -4.8% 19 0.6% 15 -4.3% 27
22 CHI -9.8% 23 -12.7% 22 5-6 0.0% 14 4.2% 23 -5.6% 31
23 MIN -13.8% 26 -13.2% 24 4-7 -13.7% 28 2.6% 20 2.5% 9
24 STL -15.1% 24 -13.1% 23 4-7 -12.3% 27 4.1% 22 1.4% 10
25 NYG -15.8% 25 -18.1% 26 3-8 -6.7% 20 8.2% 28 -0.9% 18
26 OAK -17.9% 30 -17.1% 25 1-10 -18.2% 30 0.6% 14 0.9% 11
27 WAS -18.0% 28 -19.6% 27 3-8 -8.4% 21 5.2% 24 -4.4% 28
28 NYJ -19.3% 22 -19.9% 28 2-9 -16.6% 29 2.5% 19 -0.2% 16
29 CAR -19.7% 29 -20.3% 29 3-7-1 -10.1% 25 7.3% 26 -2.2% 22
30 TEN -21.8% 27 -21.2% 30 2-9 -8.9% 22 9.9% 30 -3.1% 23
31 JAC -30.4% 31 -27.7% 31 1-10 -27.1% 32 -0.8% 11 -4.1% 26
32 TB -31.3% 32 -28.5% 32 2-9 -23.7% 31 3.6% 21 -3.9% 25
  • NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.
  • ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.
  • PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
  • FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
  • VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).



TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
W-L NON-ADJ
TOT VOA
ESTIM.
WINS
RANK PAST
SCHED
RANK FUTURE
SCHED
RANK VAR. RANK
1 DEN 35.6% 8-3 32.2% 9.5 1 3.8% 7 2.1% 15 13.5% 10
2 NE 25.7% 9-2 24.9% 7.2 5 2.9% 9 7.0% 4 19.4% 25
3 GB 24.5% 8-3 27.3% 7.4 4 -2.8% 24 0.4% 18 16.1% 17
4 BAL 22.4% 7-4 27.8% 7.7 2 -5.0% 25 -4.7% 22 8.9% 6
5 MIA 19.1% 6-5 21.1% 7.5 3 6.0% 3 -0.9% 21 19.1% 24
6 SEA 18.5% 7-4 15.1% 7.1 6 -0.1% 18 2.8% 12 16.0% 16
7 KC 14.2% 7-4 13.0% 6.9 8 3.9% 6 5.4% 6 23.1% 30
8 PHI 12.4% 8-3 13.5% 7.0 7 -8.2% 30 0.3% 19 15.3% 15
9 BUF 9.3% 6-5 9.1% 5.8 17 1.1% 14 12.9% 2 7.0% 4
10 DAL 8.5% 8-3 11.9% 6.3 12 -8.9% 32 0.8% 17 16.4% 19
11 SF 7.6% 7-4 6.3% 6.3 10 -0.1% 17 4.3% 8 11.7% 8
12 IND 6.9% 7-4 11.3% 6.4 9 -0.2% 19 -8.9% 27 13.3% 9
13 PIT 6.8% 7-4 8.8% 5.9 16 -8.0% 29 3.1% 10 16.1% 18
14 DET 4.6% 7-4 6.4% 6.1 13 0.5% 16 -8.0% 26 8.6% 5
15 CIN 3.5% 7-3-1 6.3% 6.3 11 -1.2% 22 2.8% 11 23.7% 31
16 SD 1.3% 7-4 5.4% 6.1 14 -0.2% 20 21.1% 1 17.6% 20
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
W-L NON-ADJ
TOT VOA
ESTIM.
WINS
RANK PAST
SCHED
RANK FUTURE
SCHED
RANK VAR. RANK
17 ARI 1.2% 9-2 2.0% 5.9 15 2.0% 11 3.7% 9 5.1% 2
18 NO 0.9% 4-7 2.0% 5.2 19 -0.3% 21 -12.1% 30 17.8% 21
19 CLE -3.7% 7-4 5.5% 5.4 18 -7.0% 28 4.5% 7 15.3% 14
20 ATL -6.5% 4-7 1.5% 4.8 21 -8.5% 31 2.8% 14 13.9% 11
21 HOU -9.7% 5-6 -3.1% 3.9 25 -2.7% 23 -10.6% 28 6.7% 3
22 CHI -9.8% 5-6 -13.2% 5.0 20 1.8% 12 1.0% 16 11.7% 7
23 MIN -13.8% 4-7 -15.0% 4.6 22 0.8% 15 -5.0% 23 15.0% 13
24 STL -15.1% 4-7 -18.2% 3.6 28 5.6% 4 -6.4% 24 20.7% 27
25 NYG -15.8% 3-8 -23.0% 3.6 27 3.1% 8 -14.6% 32 18.8% 23
26 OAK -17.9% 1-10 -25.9% 3.1 30 7.7% 2 10.3% 3 4.8% 1
27 WAS -18.0% 3-8 -14.5% 3.7 26 -6.8% 27 -0.6% 20 21.8% 28
28 NYJ -19.3% 2-9 -25.4% 4.1 23 9.4% 1 5.6% 5 20.0% 26
29 CAR -19.7% 3-7-1 -24.4% 4.1 24 4.2% 5 -10.9% 29 14.0% 12
30 TEN -21.8% 2-9 -19.8% 3.2 29 1.2% 13 -13.7% 31 18.2% 22
31 JAC -30.4% 1-10 -29.8% 1.9 32 2.0% 10 -6.9% 25 22.3% 29
32 TB -31.3% 2-9 -23.2% 2.8 31 -5.7% 26 2.8% 13 26.7% 32

Comments

181 comments, Last at 04 Dec 2014, 6:22am

98 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

They definitely have lots of people saying "WAR is useless". You must not spend any time on fangraphs. Almost any post that goes against conventional wisdom strongly is a bloodbath.

107 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

I know what you mean. I seems like so many posters either have some axe to grind, or are trying to look smart by pointing out some assumed-before-now-unknown flaw in DVOA.

I notice most of them never point out something they think DVOA should be measuring that it isn't or an alternate way to look at what it's measuring (outside of ignore game X just because).

I mean it's fine if you think DVOA isn't properly measuring some value of a team. There is a good chance it isn't. It's not perfect. Let's just talk about what's unique about said team instead of why DVOA sucks though.

111 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

I think the real thing people don't understand is that DVOA isn't even tuned to predict wins, and that's fine, because not all of us are trying to win money in Vegas. Certain things lead to more wins than other things, because not all plays have the same leverage in a game. DVOA assumes that a team's performance in almost all plays indicates something about how good they are as a team. That does not mean that those plays contribute equally to wins.

Third down performance is actually one of those 'leverage' situations that's easy to understand - teams that do well in 3rd down situations win more than you'd expect. Good for them! Doesn't mean that they're actually capable of succeeding more, per play, than another team which does better on 1st and 2nd, but worse on 3rd. And those teams tend to have more success, in the long term, than the former.

116 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

Well I think the DVOA is useful to predict wins but only because a team that is more efficient will have a better chance at winning. If each team played each other 1,000 times (or each game were significantly longer) then its likely that the actual game outcomes would be better correlated with DVOA.

The idea of a play's leverage is also important to consider; teams that are consistently able to make long drives are more likely win. However, if they fail to be successful on a few key plays or the other team succeeds with a few high variance plays then the outcome of the game can be significantly different from whatever the DVOA. But as you mention only one of those is likely to continue being successful in the long run.

118 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

Well,there's also probably some non-transitivity with football, as well: that is, team A can beat team B more than 50% of the time, team B can beat team C more than 50% of the time, and team C can beat team A more than 50% of the time. So *total* DVOA might not correlate with scoring margin perfectly all the time ('Circles of death' or 'beatloops' are examples of a non-transitive winning relation).

There's no evidence for it statistically, but finding non-transitivity requires grouping teams correctly, so that could also be the same as saying "the correct variables haven't been found yet." On average there's no non-transitivity in the league, but that doesn't mean it isn't just uncommon.

Why do I say it's probably there, even if there's no evidence for it? Because special teams basically requires it. A team with a fantastic punt return unit can get significant value in a game with 6 punts, but that unit won't contribute at all in a game with no punts. So if you have three teams: one with great defense, one with great offense, and one with great special teams, there'd have to be a non-transitive relation there at some point.

(That's an example of a case where DVOA could do better than a simple ranking system, but only if you had the correct game output function).

121 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

Well based on the Offense and Defense DVOA values you could probably determine an expected number of special teams plays that would occur in a game. Otherwise you obviously won't know how often special teams can contribute until after the game is over.

I agree that there probably is some non-transitivity, you could have a team with an excellent ground game against a team with a poor run defense win more often than the total DVOA would expect. Right now we have some combination of Offense + Defense + Special Teams but we could probably look to add more granularity and try to determine the interactions between those components.

Something else that would be useful would be to use the DVOA variance to create uncertainty in games and see if the number of upsets falls within that.

92 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

As the Jets have become weaker and weaker since their 2 championship games --the rest of the division has become more & more competitive. All of these AFC east teams can be a nightmare to play against. Even the "hapless" Jets played the Pats, Steelers, and Broncos really tough. They were even beating Green Bay in Green Bay. I can't remember the last time that division looked this strong.

113 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

Aside from my hometown Patriots, the most interesting thing to me the last few weeks has been trying to figure out the Ravens. They aren't THAT far removed from winning a Superbowl, they are in the most consistently top heavy division record-wise, they have looked hot and cold at odd times, and they are extremely high in DVOA. That would seem to suggest they will separate from the division over the next few weeks, but does anyone really want to bet on that? I wouldn't.

I'd like to see someone smarter with more time than I do an analysis of the Ravens' season and where it's likely to go.

114 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

For me, everything comes down to how well their lines play. Their o-line has gotten healthier over the past two weeks and has started playing really well. If Flacco has time, he can play pretty well, and the running game is firing right now.

On defense, they have major questions in the secondary due to injuries. As long as their front-7 can get pressure (which is normally what it does) their defense is really solid. If they struggle to get pressure, then that secondary can get exposed.

They are a dangerous team. Their issue is they lose all tiebreakers right now, so they'll likely have to 4-1 to win the division.

117 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

The Ravens season will go with the result of the Miami game (same goes for Miami) in two weeks. The wild cards essentially tip most heavily on this game. (I'd say the division is the Steelers to lose based on remaining schedule, with Pittsburgh likely eliminating Cincinnati.) In that regard, I don't think it's that hard a bet (not that I'm making it).

126 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

I'm very uncertain about the division being the Steelers' to lose because I'm very uncertain about the Steelers. I think they will split with Cincinnati, split with NO/KC, and beat Atlanta. Thus, 3-2 to close the season with 10 wins. However, I'm quite prepared to see them go 1-4 over that same stretch of games, but also can easily imagine them going 4-1. There have been times this year when I've been ready to blow up the team, trade Roethlisberger for some high draft picks, and start from scratch; there have been other times when I've thought, "Wow, if they keep performing like this, they can play in Arizona in February," and some of those conflicting notions have characterized two halves of the same game!

132 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

I'm less schizophrenic about the Steelers than you are and actually think they are the lesser team in comparison to the Ravens. I just think I'm much lower than you on Cinci (even if they keep pace with the Steelers and Raven, which I don't expect, the tie hurts them), New Orleans (particularly in Pittsburgh), and Atlanta. Even with KC looking like the stronger, more reliable team, I'm not high on their chances in Pittsburgh with their over-reliance on the run game.

Also, in saying "it's theirs to lose" I'm still reserving the possibility that they do exactly that. They should go 4-1 or 3-2 at worst and that likely wins the division — barring dropping a deuce to Cinci — but that doesn't mean I don't think they can't screw it up either. (However, if they do screw it up, it very well may shift the division to the Bengals ... depending on what B'more does against Miami and so on...)

144 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

It's hard to figure any of the AFC North teams. At the least, you expect Cleveland to fade, but they hang in. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are highly unpredictable and Baltimore is quite capable of a lousy game any time they suit up. I think you are right that the ravens overall are a bit better, and I hope you are right that the steelers should win enough to capture the division.

119 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

"tears shed and garments rent."

(That's all I got---I'm a Bears fan, so I don't actually want to talk about football.)

120 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

That's okay, the Bears don't seem to want to play football either.

I do get a kick out of the fact that the Bears are at 0.0% offensive DVOA, so they are pretty much exactly average on offense. They're both a huge disappointment given the expectations for this season, and way better than the fans calling for Cutler's head are willing to acknowledge.

148 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

Ravens ave 6.8 per pass while defense gives 6.7 to opponents. A very small differential.

Ravens complete a lower percentage of passes than opponents, throw more INT'S, have a smaller ave per pass before factoring in sacks, they basically get out-played by their opponents in almost every phase of the passing game and they've played the 25th ranked schedule.

They do get more sacks and have a strong running game combination of offense and defense. Those things don't correlate to a big playoff run.

Browns are in top 10 power rankings on other sites because of those things.

Me thinks the Browns are much better than the 19th ranked team.

150 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

Ravens ave 6.8 per pass while defense gives 6.7 to opponents. A very small differential.

To be clear this is ANY/A and while small is still in their favor.

Ravens complete a lower percentage of passes than opponents, throw more INT'S, have a smaller ave per pass before factoring in sacks, they basically get out-played by their opponents in almost every phase of the passing game and they've played the 25th ranked schedule.

Of course let’s not factor in sacks. Sacks (29) and sacks allowed (15) are where the Ravens dominate their opponents. A 2-1 ratio is pretty significant and it also shows in QB fumbles Ravens:2 Opponents:6. They also are in the top 10 in opp pass td %. So they tend to bend not break. All yards are not created equal.

They do get more sacks and have a strong running game combination of offense and defense. Those things don't correlate to a big playoff run.

Do we know that those things alone don’t correlate with a playoff run? They are also No. 2 in special teams. They have a better passing game than their opponents even if marginally so. They dominate their opponents in the running game and have great special teams. Seems to me like a combination which could produce a playoff run.

Browns are in top 10 power rankings on other sites because of those things.

Which things? The things the Ravens have or some other things.

Me thinks the Browns are much better than the 19th ranked team.

Ah here’s the gist. I think you’re suppose to use the template. [team] is clearly ranked [too high/too low] because [reason unrelated to DVOA].

151 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

I really like the Browns and have a bunch of friends from Ohio whom I'm happy for and have a lot of fun watching them and believe Josh Gordon got a raw deal, so I am rooting for them to take out villains like the Steelers and Patriots... but I don't see such a qualitative difference between this team and the ones they have been fielding for years. They're slightly better and have something resembling competence at the QB positions, but the biggest difference is the weakness of their schedule and their ability to win close games. They already looked like one of the biggest candidates for regression in 2015 and that's even if they don't win a single other game. This is a team that got whupped by the Jaguars. Browns fans should be happy they're winning and hope a foundation for a real team is being laid, but not confuse last second 1-or-2 point victories over jokes from the South divisions as being meaningful...

158 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

Another week of arguing about DVOA for the Broncos vs Patriots? This is just a new version of the irrational Brady -Manning thread.

159 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

It's so weird - instead of history cementing Manning and the Patriots legacies, I find their fans are getting more and more sensitive as time goes on. It seems like there's nothing you could say that would get under their skin because they've both been so successful, but the opposite seems to be true - everything is perceived as a slight...

160 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

It's not so weird to me as much as it demonstrates how much Brady and Manning fans dominate the comment boards.

Some people talk about media bias, but that's nothing compared to the bias on anonymous comment boards.

163 Irrational Broncos v. Patriots DVOA thread

< template >Even sum of us Broncos fans wonder Y R DVOA is higher dan d Patriots. Polling random sports bars N getting 65% accurate predictions R bedder dan dis.< / template >

Seriously, it isn't a slight to ask that question. Hopefully, some of the dialog is yielding insight. It is for me. Of course, if I get banned to responding only on Statistics Outsiders, I'll live with that too....

165 Re: Irrational Broncos v. Patriots DVOA thread

I'll quote myself in response, from 3 days ago:

"Anyway, there's nothing else to say about this, until a real Mea Culpa comes down from above, and they have an honest come-to-jesus about methodology and improvements. You can have a snarky "disclaimer" at the start of every DVOA thread, but now it just reads as desperation and ignorance. Hell, they are tied with Keyshawn & Boomer, at 62% right now. "

171 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

Keep "publication bias" in mind. Fans who think this is a silly discussion are unlikely to participate.

That's generally true for Internet comment boards over all topics.

162 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

What I see is a growing questioning of DVOA as an advanced statistic. It used to represent around 10% of the comments 3/4 years ago, and is now probably over 50%. Without judging the legitimacy of those complaints, I used to enjoy reading the comment threads more then than now.

172 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

I think the main reason for that is both the quality of the articles and writers have significantly degraded over time. Doug Farrar, Tanier, Barnwell are a lot better writers than Cian, Andy Benoit, Scott etc. -Though I think Ben Muth has been the best writer ever on this site and I like Rivers and Vince-. The articles by Andy Benoit last year and Cian this year are so pretentious and they are soooo not experts on what they write it makes overall product feel a lot less enjoyable. On top of that even as the quality of articles went down accessibility of them also went down too (ESPN insider).

On top of that DVOA has not been doing well in really anything. It does not really give any additional insight on anything. Which made not only the number of comments on the command boards but quality of comments to go down as well.

175 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

I differentiate between nat's thoughtful and constructive attempts above to figure out why VOA in Broncos-Patriots isn't what he thought it would be, and the more templatable complaints.

177 Re: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

So much for your Pats favorites to win SB, that ranks right up there with your, Denver is the 6th best team .

As much as I suggested in an earlier post.