DVOA Analysis
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Week 13 DVOA Ratings

Week 13 DVOA Ratings
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

by Aaron Schatz

Now that the Arizona Cardinals have been nice enough to fall back to earth, the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings are looking a lot more like the actual NFL standings. Three of the five current 9-3 teams are our DVOA top three, and all three teams -- Denver, New England, and Green Bay -- see very little change from last week's ratings. The fourth 9-3 team, Philadelphia, is now seventh in total DVOA but fifth in weighted DVOA. And then the Cardinals... well, things haven't changed much in our numbers, which don't see their two losses as being worth much less than some of their early-season wins.

After the Packers beat the Patriots, I noted on Twitter that I expected both teams to come out of the game with positive DVOA ratings, and that's in fact what happened. The Patriots actually ended up with a higher DVOA for the game, despite the fact that the Packers gained more yards per play, 6.8 to 5.9. Slight differences add up. The Patriots had a slightly higher success rate on offense (44.4 percent vs. 42.6 percent). Mason Crosby loses more value for missing a 40-yard field goal than Stephen Gostkowski does for missing a 47-yard field goal. The Packers also get dinged for Aaron Rodgers' fumble on a sack (which he recovered himself) and Micah Hyde's muffed punt return. The numbers end up looking like this, with and without the opponent adjustments:

DVOA OFF DEF ST TOT
GB 28.9% 11.3% -9.6% 8.0%
NE 36.2% -0.6% -4.9% 31.9%
VOA OFF DEF ST TOT
GB 27.0% 29.4% -9.6% -12.0%
NE 34.5% 21.7% -4.9% 7.9%

Both teams see their overall DVOA ratings drop by less than one percentage point this week; the Patriots fall despite having the slightly higher DVOA in this game because of changes in schedule adjustments for their previous opponents. But both teams also move up in weighted DVOA because Week 1 -- when the Packers and Patriots both lost -- has now dropped to only 20 percent strength in the formula. The gap between the Patriots and Broncos is nearly 10 percentage points of total DVOA, but is less than two percentage points in weighted DVOA. Meanwhile, the Packers lead over the rest of the NFC becomes bigger when we look at weighted DVOA, and the second-best team switches from Seattle in total DVOA to Philadelphia in weighted DVOA because we're discounting that wacky Week 1 Jacksonville game where the Eagles were competely outplayed for a half.

The Patriots have been the best team in the league since Week 7. This is, of course, completely arbitrary endpoint-setting, but at least it's arbitrary endpoint-setting that has nothing to do with the Patriots. It comes from something I put together for the ESPN playoff odds report today, looking at how the Saints have improved since their Week 6 bye. Anyway, as long as I ran these numbers, I figured folks would find them interesting. Here's a look at teams with an overall DVOA difference of at least 20% between Weeks 1-6 and Weeks 7-13:

Week 1-6 DVOA vs. Week 7-13 DVOA, Biggest Change
Weeks 1-6 Weeks 7-13
Team OFF DEF ST TOT Rk OFF DEF ST TOT Rk Change
NE 4.0% 0.7% 2.9% 6.2% 15 32.8% -2.3% 8.8% 43.9% 1 37.6%
NO 15.6% 30.1% -0.6% -15.0% 25 18.1% 1.5% 2.5% 19.2% 7 34.2%
TB -24.8% 14.3% -5.6% -44.6% 32 -24.9% -13.5% -1.1% -12.5% 23 32.1%
PIT 9.6% 19.6% 0.6% -9.4% 21 25.1% 3.1% -1.4% 20.7% 6 30.1%
MIN -22.8% 4.1% 1.0% -26.0% 30 -3.6% -0.9% 5.9% 3.2% 16 29.1%
JAC -29.6% 9.3% -4.5% -43.5% 31 -25.8% -12.7% -2.6% -15.8% 25 27.7%
STL -3.3% 12.9% -4.3% -20.4% 26 -13.3% -11.3% 6.4% 4.4% 13 24.8%
x x x x x x x x x x x x
CHI 9.7% -2.7% -7.2% 5.1% 16 -7.1% 18.7% -0.9% -26.7% 28 -31.8%
CLE 18.2% 7.5% 0.4% 11.1% 8 -21.1% -5.8% -1.8% -17.1% 26 -28.2%
CAR 7.2% 14.9% -2.5% -10.2% 23 -26.4% -3.0% -10.2% -33.5% 32 -23.3%
WAS 3.8% 4.7% -9.3% -10.2% 22 -21.6% 11.1% -0.6% -33.4% 31 -23.2%
CIN 15.1% 0.3% 0.1% 14.9% 5 -15.1% 1.0% 7.8% -8.3% 22 -23.2%
NYG -1.2% -1.4% -3.4% -3.1% 19 -11.5% 16.0% 1.8% -25.6% 27 -22.5%
DAL 17.6% 1.1% -2.3% 14.2% 6 3.6% 12.1% 2.3% -6.2% 21 -20.5%

Yes, that's Carolina with the worst special teams of Weeks 7-13. And, of course, that's heavily just Week 13, where the Panthers somehow allowed two blocked punts to be returned for touchdowns. Carolina had -50.9% special teams DVOA for this game, and our system estimates that special teams cost the Panthers -15.9 points compared to an average performance. That's not quite enough to make me dig out the list of the worst special teams games ever, but I'm sure it would at least make the bottom 25. And that gets me to this question which came up in the comment thread for Quick Reads today:

Thunderbolt of ... : Once a punt is blocked, does DVOA reward/penalize special teams for recovering the ball and/or returning it for a TD? I'm not sure, but my guess is that DVOA treats a blocked punt like a fumble, where credit is given for the block but not for the recovery. But I'm not sure this is as accurate in the case of a blocked punt; a clean block will almost always be recovered by the defense, while a partial block isn't as good.

The answer to this question is that right now, I've got it in the system where the punting team gets penalized for the blocked punt based on where the ball ends up after a recovery and return, but the punt return team doesn't get any credit for what happens after the block. Honestly, that's pretty silly and is an example of one of those small things in our ratings that I probably set ten years ago and don't make sense given how we handle other things now. One of my goals for the offseason is to overhaul the special teams ratings to really segregate these special, "non-repeatable" but valuable plays like punt blocks, maybe even creating two different ratings for special teams -- one that is only for looking backwards at how well a team played that day, the other that only measures elements of special teams that are likely to tell us something about that team going forward. When I do this, I'll fix the punt blocks so they make more sense.

* * * * *

Once again in 2014, we have teamed up with EA Sports to bring Football Outsiders-branded player content to Madden 15 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in DVOA and DYAR. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats. We'll announce the players each Tuesday in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend. We will also tweet out images of these players from the @fboutsiders Twitter account on most Fridays. One player each week will only be available for 24 hours from the point these players enter packs on Friday.

The Football Outsiders stars for Week 13 are:

  • WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU (24-HOUR HERO): 133 DYAR, the No. 5 best WR game since 1989 (9-for-9, 238 yards, 2 TD).
  • RT Lane Johnson, PHI: Allowed no sacks, one hurry; Eagles RB gained 118 yards on 10 carries to the right side.
  • DT Akeem Spence, TB: 4 TFL, 2 QB hits, sack.
  • CB Desmond Trufant, ATL: Allowed just three catches for 40 yards against Arizona.
  • LOLB Jason Worilds, PIT: 10 combined tackles, all of which were Stops, including a sack, run TFL, and pass reception TFL. Tackles allowed an average gain of just 1.2 yards.

* * * * *

All stats pages are now updated with Week 13 information -- or will be in the next few minutes -- including FO Premium, snap counts, and playoff odds. You can also read the new weekly playoff odds report on ESPN Insider to get more commentary on the current playoff odds.

* * * * *

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 13 weeks of 2014, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for strength of schedule and to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
WEIGHTED
DVOA
RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
1 DEN 34.6% 1 33.0% 1 9-3 23.8% 2 -15.3% 4 -4.5% 27
2 NE 25.3% 2 31.1% 2 9-3 18.7% 3 -0.8% 12 5.8% 3
3 GB 23.9% 3 25.2% 3 9-3 25.4% 1 0.5% 16 -1.0% 19
4 BAL 21.6% 4 24.4% 4 7-5 10.7% 9 -2.2% 9 8.6% 2
5 SEA 21.4% 6 16.4% 7 8-4 12.6% 7 -9.7% 6 -0.9% 18
6 MIA 16.4% 5 16.2% 8 7-5 10.6% 10 -9.6% 7 -3.8% 25
7 PHI 16.0% 8 20.0% 5 9-3 -1.4% 15 -8.6% 8 8.8% 1
8 KC 13.8% 7 18.0% 6 7-5 8.3% 11 0.1% 14 5.6% 6
9 BUF 9.4% 9 10.6% 9 7-5 -12.4% 27 -16.0% 3 5.8% 4
10 IND 9.1% 12 9.1% 11 8-4 4.6% 13 1.2% 19 5.7% 5
11 DET 7.2% 14 5.8% 13 8-4 -6.0% 20 -18.9% 1 -5.7% 31
12 SF 6.8% 11 4.9% 15 7-5 -4.7% 18 -16.5% 2 -5.0% 30
13 PIT 5.6% 13 5.6% 14 7-5 17.6% 4 11.5% 29 -0.4% 14
14 NO 5.3% 18 9.8% 10 5-7 17.1% 5 12.9% 31 1.2% 11
15 DAL 4.0% 10 5.9% 12 8-4 11.1% 8 7.1% 24 0.0% 13
16 SD 1.8% 16 2.2% 16 8-4 12.8% 6 10.2% 28 -0.8% 16
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
WEIGHTED
DVOA
RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
17 CIN 1.4% 15 -3.0% 19 8-3-1 -2.5% 16 0.7% 17 4.6% 7
18 ARI -1.8% 17 -1.9% 18 9-3 -9.9% 24 -10.9% 5 -2.8% 22
19 ATL -3.1% 20 -6.9% 22 5-7 7.7% 12 15.2% 32 4.4% 8
20 STL -4.9% 24 1.8% 17 5-7 -8.5% 22 -1.7% 10 1.9% 10
21 CLE -5.6% 19 -6.3% 21 7-5 -4.9% 19 -0.2% 13 -0.9% 17
22 HOU -8.2% 21 -6.2% 20 6-6 -3.1% 17 0.3% 15 -4.8% 28
23 CHI -10.7% 22 -14.5% 24 5-7 1.9% 14 8.6% 27 -4.1% 26
24 MIN -11.7% 23 -13.2% 23 5-7 -13.7% 28 1.5% 20 3.4% 9
25 NYG -14.6% 25 -15.3% 25 3-9 -6.3% 21 7.5% 25 -0.8% 15
26 NYJ -18.4% 28 -18.0% 26 2-10 -15.4% 29 1.7% 21 -1.3% 20
27 WAS -21.4% 27 -22.9% 27 3-9 -8.7% 23 7.8% 26 -4.9% 29
28 CAR -22.4% 29 -25.8% 28 3-8-1 -10.0% 25 6.1% 23 -6.3% 32
29 TEN -26.2% 30 -31.0% 32 2-10 -12.1% 26 11.8% 30 -2.2% 21
30 OAK -28.5% 26 -28.5% 30 1-11 -24.6% 30 4.5% 22 0.5% 12
31 TB -29.4% 32 -26.5% 29 2-10 -24.8% 31 1.2% 18 -3.3% 23
32 JAC -29.9% 31 -29.2% 31 2-10 -27.7% 32 -1.3% 11 -3.6% 24
  • NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.
  • ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.
  • PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
  • FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
  • VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).



TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
W-L NON-ADJ
TOT VOA
ESTIM.
WINS
RANK PAST
SCHED
RANK FUTURE
SCHED
RANK VAR. RANK
1 DEN 34.6% 9-3 31.1% 10.5 1 4.6% 4 -4.0% 21 11.1% 7
2 NE 25.3% 9-3 22.6% 7.8 7 3.9% 6 2.3% 12 18.8% 25
3 GB 23.9% 9-3 24.9% 8.2 3 0.5% 13 -4.0% 20 14.4% 12
4 BAL 21.6% 7-5 26.5% 8.3 2 -4.7% 25 -6.8% 25 8.5% 5
5 SEA 21.4% 8-4 19.3% 7.9 6 -0.7% 21 4.0% 7 16.9% 19
6 MIA 16.4% 7-5 19.0% 8.0 5 3.1% 7 4.2% 6 18.4% 24
7 PHI 16.0% 9-3 17.0% 8.0 4 -7.1% 30 -2.6% 19 14.8% 15
8 KC 13.8% 7-5 10.7% 7.4 8 6.0% 3 -5.7% 24 23.1% 29
9 BUF 9.4% 7-5 9.9% 6.6 12 0.7% 12 13.8% 3 5.4% 1
10 IND 9.1% 8-4 13.8% 7.3 9 -2.1% 22 -9.0% 29 12.5% 9
11 DET 7.2% 8-4 9.2% 6.9 10 -0.2% 19 -7.0% 26 8.0% 4
12 SF 6.8% 7-5 2.3% 6.8 11 3.1% 8 -1.8% 18 11.5% 8
13 PIT 5.6% 7-5 6.8% 6.0 18 -7.3% 31 3.4% 9 15.0% 17
14 NO 5.3% 5-7 4.7% 6.3 16 -0.1% 17 -16.4% 32 18.8% 26
15 DAL 4.0% 8-4 5.5% 6.6 14 -6.0% 27 -1.7% 17 18.2% 22
16 SD 1.8% 8-4 5.0% 6.6 15 0.4% 14 20.1% 1 18.3% 23
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
W-L NON-ADJ
TOT VOA
ESTIM.
WINS
RANK PAST
SCHED
RANK FUTURE
SCHED
RANK VAR. RANK
17 CIN 1.4% 8-3-1 4.6% 6.6 13 -3.5% 23 10.1% 4 23.2% 30
18 ARI -1.8% 9-3 -1.1% 6.0 17 1.6% 11 9.3% 5 6.1% 2
19 ATL -3.1% 5-7 3.4% 5.6 20 -7.5% 32 3.1% 10 14.7% 13
20 STL -4.9% 5-7 -5.0% 4.8 23 2.8% 9 -4.1% 22 29.2% 32
21 CLE -5.6% 7-5 3.0% 5.6 19 -6.4% 28 2.4% 11 13.6% 10
22 HOU -8.2% 6-6 0.7% 4.4 25 -6.4% 29 -7.3% 27 6.3% 3
23 CHI -10.7% 5-7 -14.0% 5.4 21 2.3% 10 1.2% 13 11.0% 6
24 MIN -11.7% 5-7 -11.5% 5.3 22 0.3% 16 -1.4% 16 14.9% 16
25 NYG -14.6% 3-9 -21.1% 4.0 27 0.4% 15 -9.1% 30 16.3% 18
26 NYJ -18.4% 2-10 -24.0% 4.4 24 9.0% 1 0.9% 14 18.2% 21
27 WAS -21.4% 3-9 -17.7% 3.6 28 -5.4% 26 0.1% 15 20.3% 27
28 CAR -22.4% 3-8-1 -27.6% 4.1 26 4.0% 5 -8.2% 28 14.1% 11
29 TEN -26.2% 2-10 -24.6% 3.1 30 -0.1% 18 -13.5% 31 17.9% 20
30 OAK -28.5% 1-11 -36.6% 3.0 31 6.4% 2 16.2% 2 14.8% 14
31 TB -29.4% 2-10 -21.3% 3.2 29 -4.1% 24 3.5% 8 23.9% 31
32 JAC -29.9% 2-10 -26.5% 2.4 32 -0.4% 20 -5.2% 23 21.1% 28

Comments

182 comments, Last at 06 Dec 2014, 6:37pm

81 Re: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

What my power ratings showed was GB winning by more than the final score, not the NE , as DVOA would have you believe.

I think NE is the team that got lucky in this game, and DVOA will give you the wrong perception of the 2 teams.

82 Re: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

Detroit is still #1 in defensive DVOA, but by far less of a margin than earlier in the season. Is this due to opponent adjustments, or decline in recent play? My eyes tell me it's the latter, because Atlanta, Arizona, and New England figured out that the 3rd string nickel corner is the achilles heel of this defense and attacked it vigorously.

97 Re: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

This will probably also be the plan week 17 for Green Bay. Anybody who is still playing FFL then might consider a flyer on Devante Adams that week.

83 Re: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

I'm wondering about Philadelphia's numbers. According to the DVOA, they are completely average on offense, but at the same time, they are only a mere touchdown from being the highest scoring team in the league. How can they be scoring as much as offensive powerhouses like GB and Denver if they are mediocre on offense? Conversely, they rank 8th in DVOA defensively, but are tied for 19 in points allowed. Could all this have to do with Chip Kelly's coaching, that more points are scored in his games on average than would be scored in a game with two other equally effective teams? And if so, is there any way to illustrate why with mathematics?

122 Re: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

"According to the DVOA, they are completely average on offense, but at the same time, they are only a mere touchdown from being the highest scoring team in the league. How can they be scoring as much as offensive powerhouses like GB and Denver if they are mediocre on offense?"

The Eagles' defense and special teams are directly responsible for 70 points, nearly six points per game.

If you take away seven points for every non-offensive touchdown, the Eagles fall to 25.4 points per game, closer to the Giants than the Broncos and about as close to the Chiefs as the Packers.

Total points is rarely a good way to judge an offense.

------

And, looking at FO's drive stats, the Eagles are fourteenth in points per drive. Their 1.99 points per drive sits between Cincinnati (1.89) and Atlanta (2.09).

(EDITed to correct drive stats to be offense-only, not net.)

165 Re: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

And this, really, is one of the biggest advantages of DVOA in my mind. If you look around at other ratings, the Eagles frequently come out with a high ranking on offense in any game-based metric (PFR's Simple Rating System, AFA's Win Points Added, etc.), but that's really misleading whenever a team has significant special teams (or defensive scoring, but that's rare), and manipulates pace like the Eagles do, since you're comparing that team's performance against others at a fast pace to the other team's performance against others at a normal pace.

I always thought it would be interesting as a trivial thing to 'rescore' games, where offenses score points, defenses *take away* those points, and special teams non-FG/PAT points which get added at the end.

So, for instance, the Eagles-49ers game instead of being 26-21 San Francisco would've been 19-0 normal points, 0-14 bonus points. Makes that game look a lot different.

87 Re: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

They've scored a ton of points on kick/punt/int/fumble returns, significantly more than anyone else in the league, so their points scored is not a reflection of the quality of their offense. On defense, they give up more yards and points than they otherwise would because the offense moves so quickly, therefore the defense faces more possessions than a normal team. I believe Philly has the lowest TOP in the league.

90 Re: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

Their offense is also hurt by a lot of turnovers (a MUCH higher rate than those offensive powerhouses), while their defense gets a lot of turnovers. DVOA loves turnovers on defense and hates them on offense.

105 Re: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

Philadelphia is 14th in points per drive. They have by far the fastest pace in the NFL creating more drives per game than other teams.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsoff2014

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/pacestats

125 Re: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

I agree with everything everyone else is saying and I'd also throw in, "look at their individual player pages." They have several players with significant roles in their offense with very bad DVOA: McCoy, Cooper, Huff and Celek jump out. There are mitigating factors for all those players's situations, but the badness of their numbers shows you why their offensive DVOA is low: they have a bunch of guys seeing significant time who have been performing poorly. And I think anyone who has watched this team would agree that those guys have not been productive - it's not controversial to say McCoy and Cooper have been major disappointments. If you have several key players who have been very bad on a per-play basis, your offense has likely been bad on a per-play basis.

I don't mean this as an explanation of why the offense has been shaky, just proof of it.

(Also, have you watched this offense? Until the o-line looked healthy in around week 11 or so, they were a total mess...)

106 Re: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

All the talk about the GB fumbles* reminds me of a DVOA question I have wondered about for some time: How does DVOA handle plays, like the Rodgers fumble where he dropped the ball as he was being tackled and immediately fell on it to recover it, if it does not show up in the box score as a fumble. In many cases the officials don't throw the blue bag and unless there is a replay from a different angle, I'm not sure that ever gets recorded as a fumble, when it actually was one by the rules of the game. Is this recorded as a fumble in DVOA, or not, or up to how the game charter records it? Thanks.

121 Re: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

If it doesn't show up in the play-by-play, DVOA won't consider it a fumble.

There are *some* manual adjustments to the play-by-play that Aaron makes, such as end-of-half/game interceptions on hail maries.

140 Re: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

Some lessons to be learned about DVOA from the GB-NE game.

DVOA and VOA are per-play stats. Sometimes being better per-play doesn't translate into being better per set-of-downs or per-possession. And sometimes being better per-possession doesn't result in better results in a game.

For example: New England was better at getting first downs per play. It was exactly as good at moving the chains (DSR in drive stats), succeeding 80% of the time. It nevertheless had fewer first downs per possession and in the game.

DVOA and VOA come almost completely from the play-by-play. It's a fumble if the play-by-play says so. Unaccepted penalties don't count. DVOA doesn't know about "free plays". That "free" return that gets fumbled or muffed out of bounds for a net gain in yards? DVOA sees it as a return that gets fumbled out of bounds after a gain.

DVOA treats fumbles as predictive and recoveries as random.

VOA values offensive fumbles based on who actually recovered. It still treats special teams fumble recoveries as random.

VOA probably doesn't value first downs versus yardage versus fumbles vs interceptions the same as you do. You are probably wrong. For decades, football statisticians focused on yardage and points as the only team stats worth comparing. We have left that dark age. Get over it.

Usually, if VOA disagrees with a game's score, you can figure out what VOA was seeing. In this game's case, it's better first downs per play, no fumbles or muffs, and a better ability to get into the end zone being valued over more yards per play (which VOA sees) and simply having more plays (which VOA ignores).

Total VOA and Total DVOA are constructed assuming an equal number of offensive and defensive snaps. That can be wildly off in a single game. This means Total DVOA is more about predicting future play than it is about describing the current game.

148 Re: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

Good post.

I would be interested in seeing (ODVOA * OPLAYS) + (DDVOA * DPLAYS) + (SDVOA * SPLAYS). Seems like it would be more enlightening in single games than the current method.

158 Re: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

You made me interested too so I just tried this quick with one adjustment, multiplying VOA/DVOA by the % of total plays that unit was on the field rather than just total plays so that the final result can be still expressed as a percentage. I estimated that there were 135 total plays in the game, 65 plays for GBO/NED, 49 plays for NEO/GBD, and 21 special teams plays, and so I multiplied GB's OVOA of 27.0% by 48.1% of the total plays in the game that GB's offense was on the field, etc. In the end I got "possession-adjusted" VOA Scores of NE 1.3%, GB 0.84%, and DVOA Scores of NE 12.6%, GB 8.3%.

I don't have a great statistics background so maybe someone else could chime in as to whether what I did here was valid. One thing in particular that probably throws this off is that I think Aaron has said in the past that the special teams numbers are already adjusted to reflect the fact that there are fewer special teams plays in a game.

145 Re: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

One thing that struck me as odd, and important during the GB-NE game, was the Fake 12 man penalty at 2:35 left in the 2nd half.

The whistle/restart prevented NE from letting the clock run down to 2:00 before starting the next play. As a result, an additional 40 seconds was left on the clock for Rodgers on the next possession. And Jordy took one to the house... (I know GB could have taken a time out, but frankly I won't ever give McCarthy the benefit of the doubt on clock management).

Just a bizarre, that an undone penalty call prevents the clock from running the full 40 seconds...

162 Re: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2014/11/30/patriots-live-blog-super-bowl-caliber-matchup-on-tap-in-green-bay/

It happened in the first quarter and GB was on offense. Unless there was another screw up later that I don't remember?

166 Re: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

GB definitely had the ball. I remember thinking it was so weird because the penalty was called before the snap, and when it's on the defense that penalty is almost always after the ball is snapped.

The whole thing was really bizarre.

167 Re: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

*Edit, misunderstood you at first.

But yeah, as of I believe 2012, if the refs recognize 12 men and the snap is "imminent" it can be called as a pre-snap penalty on the defense.

169 Re: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

You are referring to a Different penalty. Which was also reversed.

Correction: It was an Offensive Pass Interference flag, which was called, then picked up. So it stopped the clock and made the maximum run off at 25 seconds, rather than 40. Preventing the Pats from going down to the 2 min warning on the next play.

173 Re: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

I'm a bit surprised by the Colts offensive rating. Their passing game has been pretty incredible, while the running game seems to (mostly) get the job done. Is there huge gulf in the split between the running and passing game? Or perhaps, a few stinkers (most notably the NE game) dragging them down? If not, why does FO rate them as basically a slightly above average offense (+4.3%) while the general perception of them is as a very dangerous offensive team and conventional stats have them as top 3 in many offensive categories?

Disclaimer - I'm a Colts homer, so my perception could be skewered.

176 Re: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

I think the Colts are a better team than DVOA has them down for, but not because DVOA is wrong. It's because they're woefully misusing the talent on their team, and in particular Richardson should not be getting many (read: any) rushes. Luck has been great this year, and non-Richardson backs are doing pretty well even with their fumbling issues, so they should stop letting their pride get in the way of actually winning games.

177 Re: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

Colts run more plays on offense than any team in the league - that means their conventional stats will be high, whereas DVOA is a per-play stat. It's a similar effect to what's discussed with the Eagles above. (Also, I believe the Colts turn the ball over a fair amount, don't they? Luck's 11 interceptions are not a disaster, but are not great. Again - that's discussed in the Eagles thread. They're similar in why DVOA dislikes them...)

179 Re: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

Crosby gets a bigger deduction because he missed a shorter FG ?

But wouldn't GB get more credit for their offense getting deeper into NE territory and getting a closer FG attempt ?

That extra credit should out-wiegh the bigger deduction or at a minimum even things out.

So by giving Crosby an extra deduction DVOA is saying the Pats did a better job on their drive then the Packers did while getting a closer FG attempt.

How is that possible ? How can that be credible ?

A team gets rewarded for attempting a longer FG ?

182 Re: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

itYou're thinking about it incorrectly. GB is being penalized for missing a relatively easy FG. NE is penalized less for missing a longer FG. It's about the percentages of making each. No one is being "rewarded" for missing FGs, as you put it.